Darthe's Mafia Game Over. Mafia Wins.

[Turin Turambar]

Show me please Rand.

 

Chuckles, are you unwilling to accept guidance with regard to your shooting at night?

 

BG, you said you were not yet convinced that dap is a mafia RB. Do you think he is as he claims, or fake claiming as town, or fakeclaiming as mafia?

[Turin Turambar]

Who are you currently voting for rand?

 

Also, I just saw the quote from chuckles.

[RandA lThor]

Turin, I am voting for Chuckles.  Let me go look.

[dapianoplay3r]

So yoou go where the herd is heading rand?

[RandA lThor]

 

Rand, you believe all the claims equally?

 

I would like everyone to post their top 3 choices for mafia and reasons:

 

Mine are...

 

Talya: lots of posts that IMO were spreading wifom. Also the initial query into the lack of a NK night 1.

 

Mish: path of least resistance. Also, showing up right after the hammer with that post. It reminds me of another game you were mafia in.

 

Dap: flat out don't buy the claim. Also your talk about how RTE's flip was meaningless if he flip in accordance with his claim.

 

Bonus in chuckles. Don't buy his claim either.

 

Actually this reminded me of something.  My previous reason for not voting Chuckles was that SK would have killed all days, but I forgot about Dap's night action.  This means that Chuckles was actually trying to shoot all nights, something that a vig doesn't normally do.  Changing thinking all roles are good to everyone except Chuckles.  The reason I believe Dap is because the Chuckles things stands out, and because I think he is a jailkeeper (there is a difference between jailer and jailkeeper, jailer is able to take someone when no lynch occurs and they choose one person.  This person gets jailkeeped, but the jailer also gets to talk to them and usually gets to choose if they die or not).  I agree with Talya, she has been acting like that the whole game, Mish I don't buy as much though, that seems more circumstantial to me than anything else.

 

 

 

yes turin i dont trust you. Mmore inclinded to but still dont

RTE died town, that means the masons are most likely confirmed unless they were dumb enough to do some godfather plot, which I think is ridiculous.  Why do you not trust him?

 

Here is where I start with questioning Dap.

 

 

I've never heard of how Dap's role allegedly works. Mafiascum wiki says that Jailor and Jailkeeper are the same thing and basically stop all actions from affecting your chosen person or to stop that person from making any actions. There is no mention of being able to talk to anyone. I have no idea where you are getting all these crazy roles from.

 

It specifically says that it will protect/stop regardless of the number of actions attempted - so Dap's more than one kill would actually still kill is ridiculous.

 

This is what I think:

 

 

I think Dap is the Mafia Blocker - this would mean his claimed role had a half truth to it. I think he added his little coda about more than one kill being able to get through because there is an independent Killer out there and he did not want to get caught in a lie by saying he Jailed someone and then they died. He also pre-protected himself against any fall out from Len flipping Town by saying that it may have been possible that Len could not be on the Mafia Team and he could have actually have been the mafia team's target. He then says Len will be speed Lynched.

 

Also I think that Dap's Role is too over complicated and powerful in a game where even the Cop only had 2 shots.

 

I also used the Get out of Jail Free card because I think is the Mafia Team who are silencing people in the daytime and I am far from silenced. My other theory would be that people are getting Jailed in the daytime and that is what is silencing them.

 

Vote Dap

 

We should have done this yesterday. It was Dap who stalled his own Lynch and pushed it off onto Len instead. Dap also managed to avoid being on the Lynches of the first two Town people we Lynched on D1 and D2 and he instigated the Lynch of Len on D3.

Here is the role for jailer btw. http://wiki.epicmafia.com/index.php?title=Jailer

Nice analysis though Ithi, I never really thought of it like that, that would turn out to be a perfect role claim, waiting to hear more from Dap about this.

Well I'm not sure why you guys think I'm SK? Its not like any of the scenes point towards it.

 

So my list so far:

 

Tayla: the whole fiasco with messing the names up and making up a couple of shots thing. (I'm sure it was RL stuff but still).

 

Mish: Activity, not being really that active. (But I think she mentioned DM issues or something).

 

Rand: pretty much for his activity. (RL sux)

How does my RL make me scummy?

 

I started writing this post before I left for school in the morning, so I will probably get ninjad like 500 times.

 

Here is the major turning point for me on Dap, I agree with Ithi's analysis and think that he is most likely a mafia RB.

 

Dap, I'm confused on what you're doing right now.  Are you purposely spreading WIFOM, playing bad or what?

 

If Dap is town, then he is causing WIFOM by doing all his stuff, and the fact that he's not dead

 

If Dap is mafia, he is causing WIFOM by not killing the doc.  

 

So the WIFOM arguments against Dap are kind of useless, because there is WIFOM both ways.  However, looking aside from the WIFOM, his general play has been scummy, he has cast doubts on the masons which are pretty much confirmed, and not really helped town that much.  

 

However, whether Dap is mafia or town, Chuckles is most likely still SK.  So personally, I am equally fine with going with either, as Chuckles is more likely to be scum, but Dap would be a better scum to have out of the way because he is most likely mafia and an RB, imo.

And then I spend the majority of this paragraph talking about how Dap's WIFOM isn't a part of the case, but what he's done is more important, then add in a little something about Chuckles.  After that, more people started talking about Chuckles and I talked about him more.

[RandA lThor]

So yoou go where the herd is heading rand?

 

No, if I did that I would be voting you right now.  I was the first vote on Chuckles.

[Turin Turambar]

So you are saying that you think dap is most likely a mafia RB. so what you are saying is that you would rather lynch a potential SK over a most likely mafia.

 

Is nice to have a third party target to push for a lynch when you are mafia. Then you can say they are bad with conviction.

[RandA lThor]

Turin, when you suspect me, can you at least read my posts?

 

 

 

Dap, I'm confused on what you're doing right now.  Are you purposely spreading WIFOM, playing bad or what?

 

If Dap is town, then he is causing WIFOM by doing all his stuff, and the fact that he's not dead

 

If Dap is mafia, he is causing WIFOM by not killing the doc.  

 

So the WIFOM arguments against Dap are kind of useless, because there is WIFOM both ways.  However, looking aside from the WIFOM, his general play has been scummy, he has cast doubts on the masons which are pretty much confirmed, and not really helped town that much.  

 

However, whether Dap is mafia or town, Chuckles is most likely still SK.  So personally, I am equally fine with going with either, as Chuckles is more likely to be scum, but Dap would be a better scum to have out of the way because he is most likely mafia and an RB, imo.

State that Chuckles is most likely SK, and that Chuckles is more likley to be scum.

 

 

@ Chuckles How are you more likely to be town? Your targets have been quite odd.

@Rand I assume you mean Scum as in anti-town and not mafia.

 

Yeah, I use scum for anti town and mafia for mafia.

 

 

 

How am I more likely to be scum rand?

 

Lets say that there is an x% chance that Dap is mafia based on the cases that have been laid on him so far.  Your case is at a y% being mafia without Dap existing.  But the fact that Dap roleblocked you n1, and that is the same night you apparently holstered, even though you shot someone every other night, without town input, means that you were most likely.  However, that input percentage from Dap comes regardless of him being mafia or town, so instead of the x% being a factor, that input is a 100% factor (or as close as you can get in mafia), because as mafia or jailkeeper, he blocked you n1.  Therefore, the case on you stands stronger than Daps because there is a higher chance of you being mafia.

 

Explain my previous statement and again state that there is a higher chance of Chuckles being scum.

 

 

That's kinda confusing to follow Rand.

Yeah sorry, basically, Chuckles case isn't just not dependant on Dap's alignment, but regardless of Dap's alignment, Dap's existence as either a mafia RB or town jailkeeper supports the fact that Chuckles is scum, meaning that Chuckles is most likely more likely to be scum if that makes sense.  However, if Dap is a mafia RB, it might be more beneficial to lynch him.  Of course there is a lower chance that he is, so imo, its risk vs reward for us right here.

 

Yes rand but town input means I ask you(as in the players), which means mafia can control another kill besides their own.

@bg: well the 2 people I picked were maw and hal, both we're quite lurky and in general, if I tried to case anyone on of them, I woudnt find much, so I'd rather shoot someone who isn't helpful and casing would be a waste of time

I've already gone over this.  Town outnumbers mafia, and if all the mafia stick together in a group, we can see them because there will be like 3 or 4 people who are all going for someone that no one else thinks is scummy.  The best mafia can do is have an influence on your kill, but it won't be as strong as town influence, which is better than you just going to kill on your hunches.

 

Actually I don't have a limit

(Weird isn't it)

This plus your inability to cope with town, plus claiming you holstered n1 when you were roleblocked all leads me to believe you are scum.

 

And again here show that Dap is less likely to be scum than Chuckles.

[bgrishinko]

Show me please Rand.

 

Chuckles, are you unwilling to accept guidance with regard to your shooting at night?

 

BG, you said you were not yet convinced that dap is a mafia RB. Do you think he is as he claims, or fake claiming as town, or fakeclaiming as mafia?

 

I think that if he were a mafia RB Cloud would be dead. So I don't believe that.

 

He had been pinging me regardless of the claim otherwise so right now my thought is it is a fake claim and he's most likely mafia. But he's answered question I've had good enough that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt right now since there should be ways to vet his claim at some point. I'd suggest having Dap jailbreak person X and have chuckles shoot person X as well. I'm fairly convinced chuckles isn't mafia, as he killed mafia, and I'm willing to keep him around for a little bit if we can reign in his kill and use it to gain info. This would prove the Doc part of his ability at least.

[dapianoplay3r]

One issue. I only protect from one kill

the mafia nks the same person and they die

and thats why my claim is so hard to believe

[lolguy26]

*shrug*

 

I don't mind turin.

 

Rand, one of your posts (the one about dap wifoming) is just weird, I mean you spend 4 Paragraphs saying how scummy dap is and how wifom is bad, yet you end it with, chuckles is most likely to be SK, and I'd go either way.

That imo defeats the whole purpose of your post.

 

 

 

*goes to school*

[Turin Turambar]

BG, What do think about rand?

 

Rand, do you think dap is mafia? What is your percentage certainty? Also what percentage do you assign to chuckles as sk?

 

And I have read your posts. You contradict yourself. My guess is that your original intention was to bus dap. Then people started talking more about chuckles and you have since been stating that dap is bad but chuckles is worse. You stated yourself that you only started thinking about chuckles once others started talking about him.

 

I still think that we can exert some control over chuckles. And if not then he can be lynched later, if mafia doesn't decide to kill him first.

[dapianoplay3r]

When i flip town how does that change ypur view of rand turin

[Turin Turambar]

Then it would seem like he is just chasing the current easiest lynch. You were almost certainly the most likely lynch early but your train is stalling again while Chuckles has been put into the spotlight.  Plus like I said earlier mafia love to chase down third party as allows them to actually scumhunt without calling out their teammates.

 

I still have a problem with your claim and with your play to date. I'm trying to see if there is a way to verify you one way or the other. I am still thinking that you are mafia. Starting to think that the entire claim is a fake. You picked Chuckles for N1 as he had already claimed to have holstered. Lenlo I believe hinted at being vanilla. I  don't remember if it was before or after you said you blocked him. Ithi claimed pineapple which is obviously not a power role. So all in all it looks pretty safe.

[Darthe]

Day 4 Official Vote Count 2:

 

Dap (2/7): Arez, Ed

Ley (5/7): Ithi, Talya, BG, Mish, Dap

Chuckles (2/7): Rand, Ley

 

Not Voting (3/12):

Chuckles, Turin, Cloud

 

Countdown: 38 Hours remaining

http://www.timeandda...0=745&msg=Night

[dapianoplay3r]

Untill chuckles said he holstered i believe i was skeptical of him. When he said he didnt shoot i said "ok i belueve you" or something

[Leyrann]

 

Show me please Rand.

 

Chuckles, are you unwilling to accept guidance with regard to your shooting at night?

 

BG, you said you were not yet convinced that dap is a mafia RB. Do you think he is as he claims, or fake claiming as town, or fakeclaiming as mafia?

 

I think that if he were a mafia RB Cloud would be dead. So I don't believe that.

 

He had been pinging me regardless of the claim otherwise so right now my thought is it is a fake claim and he's most likely mafia. But he's answered question I've had good enough that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt right now since there should be ways to vet his claim at some point. I'd suggest having Dap jailbreak person X and have chuckles shoot person X as well. I'm fairly convinced chuckles isn't mafia, as he killed mafia, and I'm willing to keep him around for a little bit if we can reign in his kill and use it to gain info. This would prove the Doc part of his ability at least.

 

 

Of course Chuckles isn't mafia. I'm pretty sure we all either think he's town vig or third party SK, neither being mafia.

 

 

Day 4 Official Vote Count 2:

 

Dap (2/7): Arez, Ed

Ley (5/7): Ithi, Talya, BG, Mish, Dap

Chuckles (2/7): Rand, Ley

 

Not Voting (3/12):

Chuckles, Turin, Cloud

 

Countdown: 38 Hours remaining

http://www.timeandda...0=745&msg=Night

 

 

Wait, I'm that close to a lynch already??

[Talya]

As an independent of mafia agents SK is just as interested in killing mafia as town. If he is willing to work with town to eliminate mafia he can be a valuable asset. If he goes against town then he can dealt with later.

 

Your aggressive stance in combo with putting him forward ahead of dap leads me to think you mafia are divided about bussing dap

 

The trouble with SK's is that they are usually third party. whilst part of this is true for a while (he has to get the number of mafia down as much as the town), as some point he won't care, he is out for himself. Although getting a mafia is good for him he doesn't care too much at hitting town neither. 

 

Chuckles. you haven't answered my questions.

[RandA lThor]

*shrug*

 

I don't mind turin.

 

Rand, one of your posts (the one about dap wifoming) is just weird, I mean you spend 4 Paragraphs saying how scummy dap is and how wifom is bad, yet you end it with, chuckles is most likely to be SK, and I'd go either way.

That imo defeats the whole purpose of your post.

 

 

 

*goes to school*

The relationship between the two is what I wanted to stress, but that couldn't have been done without first establishing why I think Dap is mafia.

 

BG, What do think about rand?

 

Rand, do you think dap is mafia? What is your percentage certainty? Also what percentage do you assign to chuckles as sk?

 

And I have read your posts. You contradict yourself. My guess is that your original intention was to bus dap. Then people started talking more about chuckles and you have since been stating that dap is bad but chuckles is worse. You stated yourself that you only started thinking about chuckles once others started talking about him.

 

I still think that we can exert some control over chuckles. And if not then he can be lynched later, if mafia doesn't decide to kill him first.

I don't have a percentage certainty exactly, but I'd put Chuckles as slightly higher than Dap.  And you are misinterpreting what I said.  I said that I talked more about Chuckles when others talked about him, however, as seen by my posts even on Dap, I was already talkinga bout Chuckles then as well.  And again, I never said that Chuckles is worse than Dap.  The only comparison that sums up what I have said about Dap and Chuckles is that Chuckles is more likely to be scum, while Dap would be a more powerfulPR.  If you have any other opinions on what I said between them, please quote where I said that.

 

 

Day 4 Official Vote Count 2:

 

Dap (2/7): Arez, Ed

Ley (5/7): Ithi, Talya, BG, Mish, Dap

Chuckles (2/7): Rand, Ley

 

Not Voting (3/12):

Chuckles, Turin, Cloud

 

Countdown: 38 Hours remaining

http://www.timeandda...0=745&msg=Night

 

Woah, thats creeping on us, I really don't want a speed lynch right now, especially because we have 2 players that I have strong scum reads on.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Is not difficult to say holstered or didn't shoot or jailed etc when no-one died.

 

Rand - you say you would be voting Dap now if was just following path of least resistance - but is actually Ley who has most votes.

 

BG fos me for creatinf wifom when actual I was responding to Dap saying cloud should be dead by now - if Dap town protective role then his statement also applies to himself is all.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Hahahaha woah time creeping up etc. You so funny.

 

Blah blah please quote me is very defensive. You sure you been very careful in your posts hmmm?

[lolguy26]

Which question tayla?

[dapianoplay3r]

Ithi it does apply to me

 

The only reason I'm alive is they think ill get lynching soon

[dapianoplay3r]

Also good night

[_CLOUD]

well maw was a hunch and him being lurky

 

hal was because of her hammer (opportunistic scum was what i had in mind) and her lurking somewhat during the day phase and showing up in the end

Well I'm not sure why you guys think I'm SK? Its not like any of the scenes point towards it.

 

So my list so far:

 

Tayla: the whole fiasco with messing the names up and making up a couple of shots thing. (I'm sure it was RL stuff but still).

 

Mish: Activity, not being really that active. (But I think she mentioned DM issues or something).

 

Rand: pretty much for his activity. (RL sux)

I’m not liking Chuckles’ killing pattern. If you look at his list of people he suspects to be mafia you notice that he lists both Mish and Rand for their lack of activity. Talya is there because she was messing up the names of the players, and he later says that he believes it’s due to RL stuff, but he still puts her on top. He even shot Hallia for lurking. Moreover Chuckles refuses to work with the town and it seems like he just doesn't care. I mean what the hell? He is so obviously a SK, and if he keeps up with this playstyle then we just need to lynch him.

 

 

Rand's explanation of the Role is just all over the place btw. Seriously - what sites are you guys looking at.

 

Yeah, I agree with Ithi here. It says on the mafia wiki that the jailer and jailkeeper roles are the same, so I’m going to just accept it as it is.

 

 

 

UNOFFICIAL vote count:

 

 

RTE (1/8): Rand

Dap (4/8): Hally, RTE, Arez, Cloud

Ed (1/8): Chuckles

Len (1/8): Dap

Talya (2/8) Turin, Len

 

As I am going to bed, we only have 3 hours to deadline and apparently a Darthe random is not funny, I will

 

vote Dap

Yesterday voted for consolidation. Does not say that Dap is mafia

 

I'll put my vote on Dap again, like yesterday, with the reasons of back then plus what Ithi said earlier today, pretty much. And, not sure if anyone mentioned that already, the total lack of wots from Dap this game and the lynch going from him to Len last moment. I mean, Len wasn't even THAT scummy...

 

Vote Dap

Again does not say that he believes Dap to be mafia. Just that he will put his vote there.

 

Also, bolding is mine

 

 

This is really interesting. It only supports my aforementioned suspicions of Ley even more.

 

 

Chuckles was pinging me but he was also I likely target for a NK IMO, either way I though I might be able to stop a NK (I might have, can't prove it either way)

 

Len I thought was mafia (chuckles claimed Vig) so I was hoping to stop a kill or if I had survived till tomorrow I was going to push him till he fake claimed and then see if it matched up, i just don't trust him

Okay follows up a few minutes later after saying good night and re-explains the reason for blocking chuckles. Backtracking on a slip? Eh, maybe, but I'll let it slide cause the first post might have just been Dap getting ninja'd.

More importantly, If you thought Len was mafia enough to block him... why Len instead of one of the others on the list above that you obviously trustted much less (RTE for example) rather than the one that was merely "bugging you"? Also shame that you decided not to block RTE last night whom "you didn't trust at all" and saved us a decent role compared to Ithi who you simply "don't know about."

 

 

Also interesting. 

 

How am I more likely to be scum rand?

Lets say that there is an x% chance that Dap is mafia based on the cases that have been laid on him so far. Your case is at a y% being mafia without Dap existing. But the fact that Dap roleblocked you n1, and that is the same night you apparently holstered, even though you shot someone every other night, without town input, means that you were most likely. However, that input percentage from Dap comes regardless of him being mafia or town, so instead of the x% being a factor, that input is a 100% factor (or as close as you can get in mafia), because as mafia or jailkeeper, he blocked you n1. Therefore, the case on you stands stronger than Daps because there is a higher chance of you being mafia.

 

 

This actually made a lot of sense to me when I was rereading. Now however I'm having my doubts on Rand. He seems to be flailing around a lot while he is trying to defend his vote on Chuckles, while he was casing Dap. 

 

 

Saying they are equal but pushing chuckles more than me shows we arent equal in your mind

your actions dont match ypur words

 

I agree. Rand voted for Chuckles, so he believes that Chuckles is the better lynch option, even if only slightly. It's simple as that.

 

One issue. I only protect from one kill

the mafia nks the same person and they die

and thats why my claim is so hard to believe

 

This is what makes your role impossible to test, and that is also why I'm really unsure about your claim. You have also been spreading tons of WIFOM for the sole reason in keeping yourself alive. That's not very pro-town.

 

Then it would seem like he is just chasing the current easiest lynch. You were almost certainly the most likely lynch early but your train is stalling again while Chuckles has been put into the spotlight. Plus like I said earlier mafia love to chase down third party as allows them to actually scumhunt without calling out their teammates.

 

I still have a problem with your claim and with your play to date. I'm trying to see if there is a way to verify you one way or the other. I am still thinking that you are mafia. Starting to think that the entire claim is a fake. You picked Chuckles for N1 as he had already claimed to have holstered. Lenlo I believe hinted at being vanilla. I don't remember if it was before or after you said you blocked him. Ithi claimed pineapple which is obviously not a power role. So all in all it looks pretty safe.

 

I agree with Turin here. 

 

 

So far I think that Chuckles is the SK, and if he still refuses to work together with town and not just go after the inactives then we just need to lynch him. Dap, I'm leaning scum, but all the WIFOM surrounding his claim makes it hard for me to decide who to believe. I agree with the idea that if he is a mafia roleblocker, I would have died the first Night, but then again Dap was the first one to mention it so it could as well be more WIFOM. I also see the possibility of him being a town jailer, because having another sort-of protective role would balance out the SK shots and possibly other killing roles that the mafia might have. Like I said though, he is likely scum because of his playstyle in this game. Ley, also like I mentioned the previous Day keeps up bringing his own play and that he never lies etc. etc. His play has also been scummy and he seems to be flailing around a lot. Rand, I didn't have much of a read on until now. I'm also leaning scum on him, but my read on him is a little weaker than my reads on Dap and Ley, but definitely worth mentioning. Arez and Turin are town masons, no doubt from me after RTE died who confirmed them. I'm leaning town with BG, I like his play so far and he seems to be thinking a lot for himself and not following other players around. Talya I'm having a town read for the same reason as BG. I didn't think much of Talya messing up the names thing, and just thought that she must have been tired as she claimed to be. I believe her when she says that she wouldn't lie about RL stuff, as I think that nobody else here would have done. I have a town read on Ithi, she seems to be pointing out all the details and so far she's been very helpful. Mish is a little inactive, but she has been busy with a lot of RL stuff and she is still posting her thoughts on all the players, but she could explain her reasonings more often and go more in depth. I have a slight town read on her. Ed.. no idea.

 

 

Vote Dap