Tarmon Gai´don Mafia Part 1 - Tel´aran´rhiod

[Niniel]

She has insomnia? :P

 

lol It took me some time to write the scene. 

[Leyrann]

Good shot, vig.

 

One to go then, most likely.

[Leyrann]

I'd say Yates, AJ or maybe Talmanes.

[Leelou]

Probably Yates. 

[Niniel]

Not voting: Yates, AJ, Verb, Leelou, Talmanes, Ley

 

 

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

 

Deadline is Saturday 9 PM CET. 

 

Countdown

[dicetosser1]

knew I hated Perrin.......

 

 

 

Go town!

[Verbal32]

I feel like this makes AJ look better.  I need to re-read D2 and BFG again.  I'm not around this evening and I have a funeral to attend tomorrow morning, so I might not really be back until later tomorrow afternoon.....but I will be back.

[Yates]

Probably Yates.

Probably not.

[Yates]

Vote whatever order you want.

 

IDGAF - last scum is AJ or Talmanes.

 

[v]AJ[/v]

[Andrej]

Sorry to hear that Verb, hope everything is well.

 

Last wolf is between Yates/Talmanes imo.

 

We have enough wiggle room to mislynch anyway so I don't see town losing this game.

[Andrej]

Vote whatever order you want.

 

IDGAF - last scum is AJ or Talmanes.

 

[v]AJ[/v]

[Andrej]

Both goons are dead which means there's still a RB/GF out there. I doubt the scum team is all goons with a Cop/vig and possibly a doc in the equation.

[Leelou]

I'll be rereading some if I can get to it tonight. Not sure, been fairly distracted this week.

[Leelou]

Sorry to hear that Verb, hope everything is well.

 

Last wolf is between Yates/Talmanes imo.

 

We have enough wiggle room to mislynch anyway so I don't see town losing this game.

I don't think Talmanes from the way voting around EoD, so I'd put him as a last option for scum. I'm going to look at the wagons and D2 in detail.

[Andrej]

We can lynch one and vig the other.

 

Worst case if they're both town that puts us in F3 if scum get another good NK

[Andrej]

i don't think it'll be Ley in this situation. I would be surprised.

 

With BFG flipping red that rules out a Verb/Leelou team I was mulling over while waiting for Night to end. Plus they both look pretty townie on their own merit.

 

Leaves me with only Yates/Talmanes. I'm good letting either swing today

[Leelou]

We can lynch one and vig the other.

 

Worst case if they're both town that puts us in F3 if scum get another good NK

I was thinking along those lines.

[Andrej]

Pros/cons for each?

[Leelou]

Pros/cons for each?

 

Need to look again. 

[Leelou]

Would it help if i said it's a good hunch?It's enough for me to operate on. The whole point of this game is to form opinions of people and work with those to figure out who is likely scum and who is likely Town. If I think someone is Town, I'm not going to try to lynch them. If I think someone is scum I will try to lynch them.

 

Talmanes, could you circle back to this now that we've seen BFG's flip? 

[Leelou]

For Yates, voting doesn't look very good. 

 

D2, right before Yates' vote, vote count was:

 

RTE (2) - Talmanes, RTE

BFG (2) - AJ, Leelou

 

Yates put RTE back into the lead and people were willing to vote RTE on his play, especially the self vote. This isn't a hammer game, so why didn't he try to get a lynch on AJ if that is who he is convinced is scum? That vote assured RTE and BFG weren't tied since EoD was approaching. 

 

During Zander's lynch, Yates danced around avoiding lynching Zander. No one was expecting Hallia, the ninja hammer! 

 

I've addressed his content, I keep going back and forth on him for it. 

 

A few things have stuck out for Talmanes, but I have to ISO him to pull them all out. 

[Andrej]

Honestly I probably won't look back and do a thorough reread.

 

From memory the biggest strikes on Talmanes I have were his "hunch" that BFG was town and wanting to keep her alive over RTE D2. He looks good for being Zander's CW D1 but I still think his failed attempt to switch to RTE for early consolidation is sketchy. Another note that may be important is that after Zander's claim BFG voted him and then quickly unvoted again. After Leelou's analysis of the VC if Hallia hadn't hammered, this would've made Talmanes the lead wagon I believe without her unvote. Could've been trying to distance early from Zander and just because he was the CW doesn't make him town. Of note - everyone that was voting him at the EOD have flipped town.

 

Yates had a lot of hyper focus on small arguments D1. Didn't vote Zander. Tries to clear himself via Zander's TMI statement (this is what I thought Dice was talking about btw) and claim of a nameless character. Goes RTE over BFG D2 despite calling her scum with me and naming me partners with either RTE/BFG. Now votes me again on D3.

[Andrej]

I'll feel kinda bad lynching Yates cause he's my bro but if he's scum then it is what it is.

 

[v]Yates[/v]

 

Adios amigo.

[Andrej]

If it's not him then it's Talmanes like 90% of the time. What I was talking about above with BFG's quick vote/unvote could've been panic when she realized she just put her scum bro in the lead.

 

I'm almost tempted to vote him now, but I'll let others weigh in first. Either way, Yates or Talmanes get my vote for today.

[Talmanes]

@Leelou - I thought BFG was the Vig. She didn't show up until the end for the most part, and Rhea seemed like a quick pick for the Vig kill, of the people the overall group was suspicious of. After she commented saying it was a good shot, it seemed that she was justifying her own kill. Clearly I was wrong, and I'm glad the actual Vig got her. I really didn't want the Vig lynched, and that was the hunch I was working with.

 

@AJ what do you mean by 90%?

 

Honestly AJ being the first vote on BFG despite a viable alternative makes me think he is most likely Town. Even if he was Mafia he couldn't have known she would be killed by the Vig, and no one would have questioned him voting RTE because we were all fairly well thinking he looked like scum.

I just don't see him doing that if he were scum.

There have been some good thoughts on Yate's vote patterns as well, but it's hard to tell if him and AJ are just OMGUSing each other. Based on what I said above though, between the two of them I'd go with Yates.

I still need to reread a bit though, as I haven't yet had a chance.