Tarmon Gai´don Mafia Part 1 - Tel´aran´rhiod

[Verbal32]

Hon, who did we misclear? 

 

Regardless of whether AJ is vig or SK, I want to lean towards Talmanes simply because both Yates and AJ were essentially against me on that read.  I had as light town, and they both had him in the POE.  If AJ is town, then I feel like I was probably wrong on Talmanes.  If AJ is SK, then I can't count him as he'd want everyone dead, but I do put solid weight behind Yates' POE and clears.

 

I can't see Ley being scum.  If I'm alive tomorrow, I'll be doing an ISO of all living players to figure this out.  My worry is that if AJ is a SK, he's essentially won this game.  We'll worry about finding the last mafia and we'll lose at night to his shot.

[Verbal32]

@AJ-

 

Dude, I need you to show me how I'm wrong on you.  How can you not be a SK?

[Leelou]

 

 

Not even going to comment on Yates fake claiming and then getting himself mislynched.  No words for that.....

 

I had some choice ones, but then you'd have to ban me. 

 

 

hehe, I bet

 

 

I'm sure you probably know exactly what I'd say. 

[Andrej]

@AJ-

 

Dude, I need you to show me how I'm wrong on you. How can you not be a SK?

Because I'm not? I guess the best way for me to answer this question would be to look at my progression throughout the game. Have I seemed like I am content to let anyone get lynched or have I been genuinely hunting mafia? Did I bandwagon with votes or use mine explicitly for those I suspected? Yes, I realize these are things SKs can "do to look townie" but I feel the entirety of my game has been pretty town oriented and as a SK that would draw me heat I wouldn't want to survive to end game. Thus far I've also done pretty good finding and killing the wolves.

[Verbal32]

 

@AJ-

 

Dude, I need you to show me how I'm wrong on you. How can you not be a SK?

Because I'm not? I guess the best way for me to answer this question would be to look at my progression throughout the game. Have I seemed like I am content to let anyone get lynched or have I been genuinely hunting mafia? Did I bandwagon with votes or use mine explicitly for those I suspected? Yes, I realize these are things SKs can "do to look townie" but I feel the entirety of my game has been pretty town oriented and as a SK that would draw me heat I wouldn't want to survive to end game. Thus far I've also done pretty good finding and killing the wolves.

 

 

Compared to how you'd act as a SK, no.  My initial reaction is to believe the vig claim and think that Talmanes is probably the one I miscleared.

[Andrej]

Besides, even if I am a SK I'm outed now and I doubt mafia let me survive into F3/F4

[Andrej]

In other words put the tinfoil away because I'm probably not alive come Day and speculating if I'm a SK or not doesn't find the last mafia.

[Leyrann]

Also @ Tal and Ley-

 

I am not going to deal with a re-hash of RTE's bad case on me.  I clearly showed how I've been actively scumhunting and trying to solve.  Clearing townies early is part of scumhunting, and makes the eventually solve easier.  You obviously have to take into consideration being wrong on some clears, but that's part of the game.

 

If I need to re-quote all the stuff I posted for RTE I will.

 

If you absolutely have to tinfoil on me, then do it.  But show your work - dig up the quotes and show me where I've not been scumhunting or trying to solve.  And the next person to actually use me posting "yolo" as something relevant to the game, I'm going to lose my sh*t and flip tables.

 

The thing is this.

 

I think you're town.

I think Leelou's town.

I think Talmanes is town.

I think AJ is vig, therefore town.

 

See the problem? I have 4 town reads, and I know one is not a town read.

 

So, why do I think you're town? Because you've made sense all game long and because I trust Leelou's read on you.

Why do I think Leelou is town? Because she looks like the towniest town that ever towned to me, and because I trust your read on her.

Why do I think Talmanes is town? Because he made that comment about for the first time ever surviving until the end of the game, and I simply do not believe a mafia would've thought of making a comment like that.

Why do I think AJ is vig -> town? Because if he hadn't been, we'd have had a counterclaim by now. Why not SK? Because those kills look like vig kills to me, not SK kills. An SK would kill people like you, because you are far better at sniffing them out than, say, Rhea.

 

So, which of this four is the weakest? Well, that's you. Everyone here (except maybe Talmanes, not sure about him) is experienced enough to be able to make sense as mafia too. The others all have things apart from that (with Leelou the weakest after you, it's simply a VERY townie vibe that I have with her post, though I also doubt you'd misread her) to strengthen my town read, you don't.

 

Basically, it's not a matter of "who looks most scummy" but of "who looks least townie".

[Leyrann]

I fully understand it's not a strong case, but you simply have the weakest case for why you'd be town.

[Leyrann]

Didn't you yourself say that clearing people as town was very important? Well, I feel like Leelou and Talmanes are cleared, and AJ comes ridiculously close too. At least I feel like he's cleared as "non-mafia".

[Andrej]

How soon to Night ending?

[Andrej]

I have trouble reconciling why Dice was NK'd over anyone else. Tells me either mafia are in the strong town reads or they thought those players would be under protection.

[Leelou]

I have trouble reconciling why Dice was NK'd over anyone else. Tells me either mafia are in the strong town reads or they thought those players would be under protection.

 

The Dice kill is another reason why I was thinking it was Yates or yourself as scum. But you've claimed vig and no one else has countered that. That is quite possibly the reason he was killed. Throw the scent of BFG (they weren't expecting her to get shot) and have a hunt of you/Yates yesterday. 

[Verbal32]

 

Also @ Tal and Ley-

 

I am not going to deal with a re-hash of RTE's bad case on me.  I clearly showed how I've been actively scumhunting and trying to solve.  Clearing townies early is part of scumhunting, and makes the eventually solve easier.  You obviously have to take into consideration being wrong on some clears, but that's part of the game.

 

If I need to re-quote all the stuff I posted for RTE I will.

 

If you absolutely have to tinfoil on me, then do it.  But show your work - dig up the quotes and show me where I've not been scumhunting or trying to solve.  And the next person to actually use me posting "yolo" as something relevant to the game, I'm going to lose my sh*t and flip tables.

 

The thing is this.

 

I think you're town.

I think Leelou's town.

I think Talmanes is town.

I think AJ is vig, therefore town.

 

See the problem? I have 4 town reads, and I know one is not a town read.

 

So, why do I think you're town? Because you've made sense all game long and because I trust Leelou's read on you.

Why do I think Leelou is town? Because she looks like the towniest town that ever towned to me, and because I trust your read on her.

Why do I think Talmanes is town? Because he made that comment about for the first time ever surviving until the end of the game, and I simply do not believe a mafia would've thought of making a comment like that.

Why do I think AJ is vig -> town? Because if he hadn't been, we'd have had a counterclaim by now. Why not SK? Because those kills look like vig kills to me, not SK kills. An SK would kill people like you, because you are far better at sniffing them out than, say, Rhea.

 

So, which of this four is the weakest? Well, that's you. Everyone here (except maybe Talmanes, not sure about him) is experienced enough to be able to make sense as mafia too. The others all have things apart from that (with Leelou the weakest after you, it's simply a VERY townie vibe that I have with her post, though I also doubt you'd misread her) to strengthen my town read, you don't.

 

Basically, it's not a matter of "who looks most scummy" but of "who looks least townie".

 

 

I'm actually ok with your logic here, minus the bold.  That statement by Talmanes is made by any alignment no matter who the player is.  Hell, it might not even be a true statement, but I'm not going to fact check that, lol.

 

The other thing is you trusting my read of Leelou.  That doesn't make sense if you don't know if you trust me.  I might be right on Leelou, but if you have me as the least townie, then you shouldn't trust my read.

 

To me, that is a contradiction.  I get the overall vibe, though, and I appreciate you explaining why (even if I happen to disagree with some of it).

[Verbal32]

 

I have trouble reconciling why Dice was NK'd over anyone else. Tells me either mafia are in the strong town reads or they thought those players would be under protection.

 

The Dice kill is another reason why I was thinking it was Yates or yourself as scum. But you've claimed vig and no one else has countered that. That is quite possibly the reason he was killed. Throw the scent of BFG (they weren't expecting her to get shot) and have a hunt of you/Yates yesterday. 

 

 

Help me shed the SK tinfoil, then.  Is Ley right?  Do those kills only make sense for a SK?

 

 

Also, can you tell me what is making you tinfoil on me?  I'm a little nervous that I'm being set up as the easy f3 mislynch here, which means I'm going to be alive and need to work harder to clear this up.

[Leelou]

 

 

I have trouble reconciling why Dice was NK'd over anyone else. Tells me either mafia are in the strong town reads or they thought those players would be under protection.

 

The Dice kill is another reason why I was thinking it was Yates or yourself as scum. But you've claimed vig and no one else has countered that. That is quite possibly the reason he was killed. Throw the scent of BFG (they weren't expecting her to get shot) and have a hunt of you/Yates yesterday. 

 

 

Help me shed the SK tinfoil, then.  Is Ley right?  Do those kills only make sense for a SK?

 

 

Also, can you tell me what is making you tinfoil on me?  I'm a little nervous that I'm being set up as the easy f3 mislynch here, which means I'm going to be alive and need to work harder to clear this up.

 

 

Do you mean Rhea and BFG? They make most sense as vig, but could be either. If it was someone like you as SK, I could see the scum hunting, but typically it is just wild shots for SK, or get rid of some extra townies. 

 

I've been tinfoiling on you for some time, just kept it to myself. I actually thought it may have been a you/Yates team and you all were defending each other again. Obviously with knowing BFGs alignment, that threw out the you/Yates piece. 

 

I do see you putting in work and I know you've been preoccupied with family stuff, so it's been on like the backburner of tinfoils. The wording/way you asked me what I thought about you bugged me slightly, which is why I've kept it to myself mostly. I'm just not sure who is the last scum and it is bugging me. I also see Ley and Talmanes as scum. 

[Talmanes]

@Verb - The difference between what RTE was saying and what I'm saying, is he made a weak case and basically said you weren't trying, which is why I disregarded it. What I'm saying is though you have had some scum reads (though mostly Town reads) you haven't really dug in to anyone. You've never really actively gone for a lynch on a scum target, and all your votes allowed you to avoid getting any heat whether or not someone was Town. To me it seems like you've been playing it safe while trying to appear not to be. It's not definite but in my reread that's what I saw.

 

As for the reason I agree with your read on Leelou despite my suspicions against you, is because when you worked to clear her you pointed out very legitimate reasons why she looked Town. Her clear of you (as she has now admitted) was unspecific and there was never really a reason (she says now she had some reservations).

 

I know I'm Town. I believe AJ's claims, and based on the kills and the scenes I believe he is a Vig, not a SK (which I said in general after we saw the first Vig kill). Leelou's actions this game have seemed incredibly Town to me, and I have a lot of trouble believing she is scum. Leyran has seemed incredibly genuine and Town in his posts too, and I don't think he could pull il of looking so incredibly Town if he was scum.

 

That leaves you. You never made it too far either way on my radar, and that's why I wasn't even giving you a second look at first. I really don't see you playing it this safe the whole game unless you had something to hide. Despite that, I can't find a justification to try to lynch anyone else.

 

The result of the Night still remains to be seen, however, and I don't even know who will be alive come morning. Until we see who is left it will be difficult to make any final decisions.

[Leelou]

@Verb - The difference between what RTE was saying and what I'm saying, is he made a weak case and basically said you weren't trying, which is why I disregarded it. What I'm saying is though you have had some scum reads (though mostly Town reads) you haven't really dug in to anyone. You've never really actively gone for a lynch on a scum target, and all your votes allowed you to avoid getting any heat whether or not someone was Town. To me it seems like you've been playing it safe while trying to appear not to be. It's not definite but in my reread that's what I saw.

 

As for the reason I agree with your read on Leelou despite my suspicions against you, is because when you worked to clear her you pointed out very legitimate reasons why she looked Town. Her clear of you (as she has now admitted) was unspecific and there was never really a reason (she says now she had some reservations).

 

I know I'm Town. I believe AJ's claims, and based on the kills and the scenes I believe he is a Vig, not a SK (which I said in general after we saw the first Vig kill). Leelou's actions this game have seemed incredibly Town to me, and I have a lot of trouble believing she is scum. Leyran has seemed incredibly genuine and Town in his posts too, and I don't think he could pull il of looking so incredibly Town if he was scum.

 

That leaves you. You never made it too far either way on my radar, and that's why I wasn't even giving you a second look at first. I really don't see you playing it this safe the whole game unless you had something to hide. Despite that, I can't find a justification to try to lynch anyone else.

 

The result of the Night still remains to be seen, however, and I don't even know who will be alive come morning. Until we see who is left it will be difficult to make any final decisions.

 

How the hell did you get that? Where did I say up there I have no reasons? 

[Verbal32]

@Tal

 

As for going at somebody, I'm the one that put very specific reasons that AJ and BFG could be scum.  The RTE reasons were more based on his attitude and weak push at me, but the points on AJ and BFG were clearer and made logical sense.  I backed away from the AJ mafia read when BFG flipped scum because he pushed her on that last day when it would have been easier to have a vote on RTE.  That left BFG, who was shot that very night and flipped mafia.  I went at RTE pretty damn hard the day he was lynched.  I basically shredded his arguments at me, which I would say qualifies as me "digging in".

 

Like, just because you dug in on Zander D1 absolutely doesn't make you town.  I gave you a light town read early on, and that did factor into it.  But obv it could be a bus, and obv whoever suggested you got stuck on the Zander wagon could also be right.  At this point all my scum reads are dead (RTE as town and BFG as mafia) or confirmed to not be mafia (like AJ).  This means I've miscleared one of you guys.  If I had to list my confidence level in each of you, here is what it would look like:

 

Leelou (95%)

Talmanes (60%)

Leyrann (50%)

 

I list Leyrann as the least confident in my read, but you as the one I've most likely miscleared.  The reason is that I've done the least amount of work reading Leyrann, so I'm completely 50/50 on whether I'm right with a town read.  I spent more time reading you, and therefore have slightly more confidence in my ability to town read you......but that also means I'm probably most likely to be wrong on you (if that makes any sense at all, lol).  As for Leelou, I've read her even more, and I have way more experience reading her and know her IRL so I have high confidence in correctly reading her, especially this late into a game.  I've been wrong before, but not very often once we get to this point.

[Verbal32]

That I'm still alive means I miscleared somebody and AJ is probably vig.  I had him as a scum suspect, so I would have expected to be shot by Serial Killer-AJ by now..........so it is more likely that he is vigilante-AJ instead.  Talking it through like this actually helps remove the tinfoil a bit.

 

So I'm down to simply needing to identify who I miscleared between Leyrann and Talmanes.  If I'm so completely wrong on Leelou then I'm going to tip my hat to the greatest deep wolf I've ever seen, heh.  I refuse to consider it.

 

Talmanes - did you get stuck on the Zander wagon D1?  I'll need to re-read D1 with specific attention to you/Zander interaction.

 

Leyrann - I don't have much still, and I have ISO'd you partly.  Is the lack of any damning evidence damning in itself?  Would a townie play that clean of a game?  Dunno, and I'm not accusing anybody yet.

 

 

I will be accusing somebody, though.  It ain't me, and I've put in too much work to just let the dominos fall as they will.

[Leelou]

That I'm still alive means I miscleared somebody and AJ is probably vig.  I had him as a scum suspect, so I would have expected to be shot by Serial Killer-AJ by now..........so it is more likely that he is vigilante-AJ instead.  Talking it through like this actually helps remove the tinfoil a bit.

 

So I'm down to simply needing to identify who I miscleared between Leyrann and Talmanes.  If I'm so completely wrong on Leelou then I'm going to tip my hat to the greatest deep wolf I've ever seen, heh.  I refuse to consider it.

 

Talmanes - did you get stuck on the Zander wagon D1?  I'll need to re-read D1 with specific attention to you/Zander interaction.

 

Leyrann - I don't have much still, and I have ISO'd you partly.  Is the lack of any damning evidence damning in itself?  Would a townie play that clean of a game?  Dunno, and I'm not accusing anybody yet.

 

 

I will be accusing somebody, though.  It ain't me, and I've put in too much work to just let the dominos fall as they will.

 

He tried to vote RTE to consolidate way early in the day, but never unvoted and made a statement about staying on Zander anyways. 

[Verbal32]

About the unvoting, I'm not going to really consider it actually.  I saw Yates didn't unvote at one point and Tina counted it anyway.....

[Leelou]

About the unvoting, I'm not going to really consider it actually.  I saw Yates didn't unvote at one point and Tina counted it anyway.....

 

She didn't count Talmanes' though and in the vcs he stayed on Zander even though he voted RTE at one point to consolidate, early in the day. 

[Verbal32]

Hmm.  With an inconsistent counting of votes like that, I can't really read more into one and not the other, so they both need to be null imo.

 

I'll look again, maybe I'm wrong on the counting of Yates' vote.....

[Leelou]

Is it almost day?