Tarmon Gai´don Mafia Part 1 - Tel´aran´rhiod

[Leyrann]

 

 

Also @ Tal and Ley-

 

I am not going to deal with a re-hash of RTE's bad case on me.  I clearly showed how I've been actively scumhunting and trying to solve.  Clearing townies early is part of scumhunting, and makes the eventually solve easier.  You obviously have to take into consideration being wrong on some clears, but that's part of the game.

 

If I need to re-quote all the stuff I posted for RTE I will.

 

If you absolutely have to tinfoil on me, then do it.  But show your work - dig up the quotes and show me where I've not been scumhunting or trying to solve.  And the next person to actually use me posting "yolo" as something relevant to the game, I'm going to lose my sh*t and flip tables.

 

The thing is this.

 

I think you're town.

I think Leelou's town.

I think Talmanes is town.

I think AJ is vig, therefore town.

 

See the problem? I have 4 town reads, and I know one is not a town read.

 

So, why do I think you're town? Because you've made sense all game long and because I trust Leelou's read on you.

Why do I think Leelou is town? Because she looks like the towniest town that ever towned to me, and because I trust your read on her.

Why do I think Talmanes is town? Because he made that comment about for the first time ever surviving until the end of the game, and I simply do not believe a mafia would've thought of making a comment like that.

Why do I think AJ is vig -> town? Because if he hadn't been, we'd have had a counterclaim by now. Why not SK? Because those kills look like vig kills to me, not SK kills. An SK would kill people like you, because you are far better at sniffing them out than, say, Rhea.

 

So, which of this four is the weakest? Well, that's you. Everyone here (except maybe Talmanes, not sure about him) is experienced enough to be able to make sense as mafia too. The others all have things apart from that (with Leelou the weakest after you, it's simply a VERY townie vibe that I have with her post, though I also doubt you'd misread her) to strengthen my town read, you don't.

 

Basically, it's not a matter of "who looks most scummy" but of "who looks least townie".

 

 

I'm actually ok with your logic here, minus the bold.  That statement by Talmanes is made by any alignment no matter who the player is.  Hell, it might not even be a true statement, but I'm not going to fact check that, lol.

 

The other thing is you trusting my read of Leelou.  That doesn't make sense if you don't know if you trust me.  I might be right on Leelou, but if you have me as the least townie, then you shouldn't trust my read.

 

To me, that is a contradiction.  I get the overall vibe, though, and I appreciate you explaining why (even if I happen to disagree with some of it).

 

 

The statement by Talmanes is indeed a possibility he said it as mafia, but I find it unlikely. About me trusting your read on Leelou, it's very simple. Am I right about you, then she's town because there's no scum left. Am I wrong about you, then you're town and therefore trustworthy.

 

Also, I do not believe it really matters wheter AJ is vig or sk. If he's sk, he'll try to not hit the mafia and hope the mafia doesn't hit him, and then he'll try to get the mafia lynched at day, after which he wins the game. Either way, we're not going to be able to change anything wheter he's vig or sk.

 

Day should be in about 12 hours from now, I could be one or two hours off though.

[Leyrann]

I only remember it was in the morning.

[Talmanes]

@Leelou - That wasn't the vest way to phrase it I suppose. My point was you never really gave any reasons (you did say you were keeping them to yourself a bit which is fair). Even early on, out went from needing more to just Town on Verb without too much explanation.

 

@Verb - I know you had scum reads but on the specifics I disagree. Yes you argued when attacked, but you seemed to always slow down and not be particularly decisive around voting time. Just my take on it. I realize that you aren't going to believe I'm Town simply because I voted Zander, and that's fine. If you to back and read through though, I was on him from the moment he gave me reason too. At the time his lynch seemed unlikely and RTE (my other huge suspect, that I was admittedley wrong about) seemed much more possible. I've explaines my actions if you bread through and you can either accept it or not accept it, the same as my thoughts on you.

[Talmanes]

@Leelou - That wasn't the vest way to phrase it I suppose. My point was you never really gave any reasons (you did say you were keeping them to yourself a bit which is fair). Even early on, out went from needing more to just Town on Verb without too much explanation.

 

@Verb - I know you had scum reads but on the specifics I disagree. Yes you argued when attacked, but you seemed to always slow down and not be particularly decisive around voting time. Just my take on it. I realize that you aren't going to believe I'm Town simply because I voted Zander, and that's fine. If you to back and read through though, I was on him from the moment he gave me reason too. At the time his lynch seemed unlikely and RTE (my other huge suspect, that I was admittedley wrong about) seemed much more possible. I've explaines my actions if you bread through and you can either accept it or not accept it, the same as my thoughts on you.

[Talmanes]

Mobile double post fail

[Andrej]

I started to ISO BFG to see how she handled the players left alive, but I'm having to stop short. Night doesn't end until 12pm tomorrow, I believe, so maybe I can come back to it later tonight before I go to sleep.

 

Or maybe it's not as hard as it feels

Dice

Leelou

Hallia
RTE
Verb

AJ
Yates
Ley

Talmanes
Rhea
Zander

Or maybe it is, I've definitely miscleared at least one person :/ Talmanes could just be conflicting play styles, Rhea is inactivity and currently unexplained reads. But early on she had a good feel fir Seph, so her reads don't 'seem' as strange (I was hoping she'd explain more before that). Zander's sort of there and I feel like I should be thinking something of him right now.

 

This list comes shortly before the Zander lynch. I've colored and marked out the dead players so you can see where the other remaining ones are. I don't remember if she posted another list after this one - I'll look later or someone else can in the mean time - but the breakdown is sort of interesting when you see where the players still alive fall. Each one seems to have their own category save me/Ley. Looking at just this list and knowing what I know about myself, I think the last wolf is between Ley/Verb. They're both in that gray area of ~null where scum like to hide their partners because it allows them to be ambiguous.

 

I feel like this is probably a decent thing for Talmanes because I'm not sure BFG puts both of her wolf buddies in her bottom POE. Zander was already the lead wagon at this point (iirc) so her having him there is clearly for towncred later on. Leelou being as high as she is could be thread consensus where BFG doesn't want to go against the grain so it was easier just to put her up high on the list - which probably makes Leelou town. The majority of the game has agreed on this, but I'm just bugged that she wasn't killed over someone like Dice on N2. 

 

I have conflicting POEs at the moment, yesterday I was reading Dice, Leelou, Verb and RTE as town

But with the way the voting went down, I think I must have miscleared somebody here :/

I think I need to start from scratch again

 

Not sure what to think of this one. The only two that are left alive from her list are Leelou/Verb and she talks about having 'miscleared' someone. Could be BFG faking that she thinks there was a bus vote on Zander's wagon (turned out to be her) but it could also be some soft distancing from a teammate.

 

Out of the two I would go Verb, personally.

[Andrej]

To explain, the vote count would have looked like this had Hallia not hammered: 

 

Zander (4) - Talmanes, Ley, Leelou, Verbal 

Talmanes (3) - Dice, RTE, Rhea

Rhea (4) - Zander, Hallia, Yates, AJ

 

Not voting: BFG

 

This is what I was talking about D3, btw. Turns out I had remembered wrong and that BFG actually didn't put Talmanes in the lead and then quickly unvoted, instead it just tied the 3 wagons. Not sure what to make of that knowing Zander was scum. I would think that if Talmanes/Rhea are both town that having two townies vs one wolf in the random might be better odds - so that makes me wary of Talmanes all over again. Hallia's hammer vote obviously stopped this from happening, but it makes me curious as to if she panicked when she realized she potentially put BOTH of her partners up for random lynch. Especially so when it seems we still haven't nailed the scum PR yet. It also doesn't look too good when you take into consideration that 3 dead townies were all voting for him, but then again it was D1 and reads are still developing.

 

Sucks that everyone on Zander's wagon is still alive though - lots of question marks there.

 

Would love to hear thoughts on this, we've still got time before Night ends and I'm likely dead so I would really love to continue pressing for info.

[Andrej]

That's all for now. I'll try to be back later tonight

[Andrej]

I don't really want to vote Rhea today, I'm null on her alignment at this point. She still hasn't really explained her reads, but the vote is consistent with them. I'm willing to give time here.

 

I'm pretty neutral on Talmanes, I think the 'problems' I have are due to conflicting play styles rather than anything else.

 

Zander is being Zander, I won't pretend to be able to read him

 

Don't really like the verbiage used in the bold re: Talmanes. It's noncommittal and allows her not to take a hard stance. Could also may just have been looking to keep him as a potential suspect seeing as how she did swap her vote to him late after Zander's claim.

 

XD

 

GJ Talmanes!

 

Not sure I see BFG high fiving Talmanes after lynching Zander if they're both wolves tbh.

 

 

 

This is really strange. Considering that we lynched mafia Day 1, there aren't many people that I feel confident clearing. Nobody really drove the lynch through. Up until Leelou's vote the conversation was pretty much centred on Talmanes/Rhea, (Talmanes, Ley and AJ votes all felt unobtrusive) so I can't give those early votes as much credit as I want to, since it seemed extremely likely at that point that either Talmanes or Rhea would be lynched. Yet there weren't any real pushes on either of the other trains except at the very end when Yates fail voted Rhea. And even the timing of that was 'off' to save Zander if that was the intention.

I feel happy with Dice and Leelou as town. AJ and Talmanes are likely town. Ley and Verb were both fairly important momentum votes on Zander. I guess my focus for now will be Yates/RTE, yet both have felt town at some points.

 

A couple of things that stand out...

 

@RTE can you explain your current read on Verb?

 

@Yates can you explain why you were characterising Talmanes as an activity lynch?

 

 

@AJ, 'hasn't started connecting dots yet' is probably fair. games reminding me of Belichick at this point.

 

At the moment I'm finding RTE and Yates the scummiest as individuals, but neither reallymake sense as mafia.

 

RTE is being mafia read by pretty much everyone and I can't fault the reasoning. His post at EoD1 felt genuine, but his self-vote earlier was calculated (as per one of his responses to Ley) and is making me uneasy. I can't work out if I'm wanting to clear him for the wrong reasons, or if everyone finding him mafia means that he's town.

 

Yates had a strong start to the game and was an early town read, but since his argument with you his thread awareness dropped. He characterized Talmanes as an activity lynch meaning he hasn't been reading Talmanes, Dice or RTE, and ignored/ forgot a lot of discussion around talmanes failed vote. He's poked/poking at town reads of Hallia/Dice despite not finding them scummy. His concern with Sanders posts was to clear himself.

 

BUT, I don't see him as mafia with Zander. Partially because of the 'TMI' post (ironically) but more for the early game interaction between Zander and Yates, where Zander kept backing off when Yates confronted him, which is how Zander acted towards me in Belichick.

 

Dice is town here pretty much all the time.

 

Leelou is probably town for early and consistent involvement in the game and attempts to game solve. Swing vote on Zander.

 

I've lost this post twice now, and don't have time to retype it in full. I'll be back on at lunch (hopefully), if not a couple of hours before deadline.

 

@Ley, because I noticed Hallias post after I unvotedthe second time.

 

 

The biggest thing that sticks out to me in this post are the people BFG doesn't mention, which are all still alive

 

In these last two she continues to repeat a Dice/Leelou town read - that has been one of her main points it seems.

[Andrej]

Zander's ISO, albeit only 3 pages I think is pretty informative in the way of confirming the last few townies.

 

 

@Andrej - Verb especially, as I've seen many a spiderman thread when he is around. I don't know Yates, and he's been the other biggest spammer.
Leelou has done a bit but seems to already be getting serious which is normal from what I remember of her play style. Hallia I know somewhat and her behavior seems normal as well so far, based on seeing her around in the BT a fair amount.
Honestly if you weren't already getting down to business I'd be suspicious of you, as you generally get serious very quickly if memory serves.
So to put it all out there right now by default Yates is on my radar simply because of the spam and the fact I don't know him well enough to know if it's regular posting or an intentional derail.
There are still a few who have done little to no posting and so I'd like to see more of everyone before making any harder judgements.

 

anyone got any meta on Talmanes...i feel like his posts come off genuine calm and concise.  i may welcome you into my town.

 

Andrej is town.

 

Also [unvote] because it's time we get this game started.

 

the game had already started and you did nothing atp.  why state this...trying too hard to town...??

 

Simultaneous buddying and sussing in the same post?

 

I think the early Ley focus probably means Ley isn't his partner - the early clearing of Talmanes makes me a little nervous though. I've seen Zander clear his teammates early (Laine in Belicheat) if they come across well enough in thread. Talmanes essentially reacted oppositely of Zander and voted him rather quickly, so idk what to make of that either.

 

Townish:

 

AJ

Talamanes

...maybe Leelou

 

Null:

 

RTE

 

Wolfish

 

Yates

Seph

Ley

 

Rest: undecided

 

Not a ton to go on here, but Ley being his bottom read over a known scumbro in Seph is probably a good sign for Ley.

 

Talmanes/Leelou in the townish pile is sort of null. Could see Zander doing that either way. No mention of Verb here but Verb hadn't posted much at this point so not mentioning him isn't that strange. Verb questioned the Undecided/null thing about this list iirc.

 

so seeing that i prolly just game solved

 

[v] unvote [/v]

 

[v] Ley [/v]

 

Zander switches from an early vote on Seph 'for raisins' to his first legit vote on Ley. Again - I don't think this was Zander trying to distance so I'm pretty confident clearing Ley out of the last 4 players.

 

 

 

Not at all, I just don't go around shaking every single tree. First I decide if I think there is anything there too fall out.

Moving on:

[v] Zander [/v]

Out of nowhere you flood the game with halfway coherent halfway spam posts. I already stated I was looking for signs of a potential derail, and you've fulfilled it. You included just enough content to try and ward off suspicion, then started a bandwagon based on someone's opinion, despite the fact that you openly asked for input to back RTEs assumptions.

Let seems normal as can be to me, and I've been around him a long time. It seems to me that RTE may be trying to put suspicion on Ley, and have Zander start the bandwagon. Those two are in my short list.

 

First: Spicy post i like it

 

1st Bold- You're prolly not gonna like me then...sad face.

2nd Bold- You say derail and say engaging, making reads and Zandering.  but you know ....

 

 

 

 

I want to say this exchange between Zander/Talmanes makes Tal look good, but I'm still hesitant. The whole consolidation attempt on D1 to RTE after going hard at Zander still really sets my teeth on edge. And BFG's weird vote/unvote at EOD1. I think if it weren't for those I would probably have Talmanes as a solid blue read.

 

 

Why do you give up so easily? If you are town, you should be doing everything you can to make sure you don't get lynched, because you are for certain a mislynch, while someone else might be mafia. (yes, I know, later on that sometimes changes, but on Day 1 certainly not)

 

I don't really have an exact reads list yet, because I base D1 reads mostly off of general feelings, but I think it'd be this order, from town to mafia:

 

Leelou

AJ

BFG

Verbal

Hallia

Dice

Zander

Yates

Talmanes

RTE

 

It's all very close, though. From "town side of null" to "scum side of null", basically, and most could move up or down one or two places.

 

REALLY???!!!!......

 

This just smacks of TMI with how Zander is attacking Ley for having BFG so high up on his list.

 

More evidence to clear Ley imo.

[Andrej]

Ley

 

I'll win or lose on that read alone at this point.

 

Still gotta figure out the rest of you.

[Andrej]

Leelou

 

Pros: Very good voting record. Strong thread presence from the beginning, does a lot of fact checking and research on her own volition. Seems to want to solve the game.

 

Cons: She ain't dead yet :(

 

Talmanes

 

Pros: Sussed out a wolf early D1 and maintained that read throughout the phase. Seems to be showing logical progression and at the very least, consistency in how he is regarding players. Decent amount of involvement and not a terrible voting pattern.

 

Cons: Mostly how the flipped scum players have handled him. Zander seemed to want to buddy/clear him early and BFG had the weird vote/unvote as EOD1 happened that sketches me out. If he's the scum PR and she swapped to him and realized she just tied the three wagons with both of her scum buddies up for random, I can imagine that spike of fear she must've felt. Then again, maybe this theory is just a figment of my imagination.

 

Verb

 

Pros: Decent amount of involvement and activity when available. Was on the D1 scum wagon. 'Game solve-y'

 

Cons: Hard to judge because of long periods of absence (RL, I know, sorry to bring it up here). Made some early reads that make me a little wary, such as calling Yates town D1. I was far from that read ever developing, but maybe that's just a difference in us as players. SK tinfoil going into F3/F4 when I'm likely a dead man anyway. The SK stuff comes with the territory whenever a Vig is present, understandably, but the important factor here is that speculating on whether I'm a SK doesn't help to find the last scum.

[Andrej]

Sort of a crap shoot between Verb/Talmanes imo.

 

If it's Leelou, well, she got us. If I'm alive D4 I probably won't be voting her.

[Andrej]

Actually her style this game reminds me a lot of Talya in Belicheat (with Leelou mentoring her) where she was a pretty consensus town read for most of the game because of her 'clean' style and willingness to do ISOs, etc.

 

:(

 

Leelou???????

[Andrej]

    Andrej 172 Leelou 150 Verbal32 109 Leyrann 96     Talmanes 59

 

Cory Curren's School for Hunting Wolves says that "Sorting by post count is a viable option in LyLo situations."

 

How do you plea, Talmanes?

[Andrej]

I see you guys posting in that other game.

 

Give the big homie a shout out

[Leelou]

Actually her style this game reminds me a lot of Talya in Belicheat (with Leelou mentoring her) where she was a pretty consensus town read for most of the game because of her 'clean' style and willingness to do ISOs, etc.

 

:(

 

Leelou???????

 

I've got something for you. 

 

 

I really don't like that I'm still alive either. 

[Niniel]

Deadline was set to 11 AM, which is in one and a half hour. Since people seem to have not seen it I will extend the deadline to 7 PM, which is nine and a half hour from now. 

[Talmanes]

@AJ - I may not have the most posts, but if you look at my posts they all have a point and are meaningful. I didn't spam or have a lot of chit chat, because this is Mafia, and that's not how I play.

 

@Leelou - The way you just said that (not liking that you are still alive), made me think of something. Do you think If Verb was scum he would want to keep you around to make him look good? Or would he be more likely to try and kill you thinking you would read him as scum? He did clear you very quickly, and though he used legitimate posting patterns of yours (the same thing that makes me think you bare Town), I can't help but wonder about this.

[Andrej]

What do you guys think of my posts last night?

 

Do you agree/disagree on Ley? Why?

 

Who do you think the last wolf is?

[Leelou]

I don't really feel like speculating why I'm still alive during the night. 

[Leelou]

What do you guys think of my posts last night?

 

Do you agree/disagree on Ley? Why?

 

Who do you think the last wolf is?

 

I'm leaning Talmanes right now. 

[Andrej]

*holds breath*

[Niniel]

I´m so so sorry for the delay. Rl is not nice to me right now. I´ll get back here later tonight with vc´s etc but for now:

 

It´s day. Everyone is alive! 

[Andrej]

Hmmmm.