AND all this assumes DPR doesn't get killed in the crossfire.
Super bad odds, you lynch the 3p every time in this instance. How is this not obvious to everybody?
Am I missing something?
All this assumes we lynch scum today.
Let's say we don't. Then what?
If Tig hits her target and they are town, we enter tomorrow with 2 town, 2 scum, and 1 3p. That's pretty bad. Even a scum lynch then loses us the game, as the SK and mafia both kill people.
Conclusion: unless you're weighing a 100% scum lynch or a 100% 3p lynch, you have to lynch the guaranteed non-town player almost all the time.
Weird question, obviously I have no clue what the alignment of your target is. I like the shade attempt, though. Still: DENIED.
So scum treated you like a townie. There's no difference to analyzing your death vs any other townie......which was my point.
8 alive
Tigs gets lynched today
7 go into night, with 1 NK from scum (prob)
6 alive tomorrow, with a 4-2 town-scum split
That is endgame - we mislynch there and scum NKs for parity - game over.