Pandy's Mafia Theory: Reasoning in Mafia Games

[cosmicpanda]

I came across this in the New York Times and thought it was interesting: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/reasons-matter-when-intuitions-dont-object, which includes this nifty picture:

 

 

It's neat because it presents in graphic form situations that I think we're all familiar with - in the case of mafia, determining whether or not somebody is scummy. Obviously, we are sometimes faced with lots of evidence, and sometimes with very little. The trick is to learn to find relevant information and also to extrapolate from insufficient data. I think distinguishing between what is reasoning (thinking about how something that somebody did might help them if they were town or scum, or thinking about how somebody's playstyle changes according to whether they're town or scum) and what is intuition (gut) might help in doing this. I think that good mafia players have to be adept at using both kinds of reasoning.

 

I think that in playing mafia, it is generally preferable to prefer reasoning over gut play. Playing from the gut won't convince anybody else to vote for you; even if it does, you can end up having wagons built on a case that in retrospect is obviously flawed, which is essentially a gift to the mafia team. You can usually find a way of finding a rational lying behind gut plays, so I think it's worthwhile trying to think about why you're voting the way you are. (See this thread for how I perceive the fundamentals of mafia play, if you want tips.) Obviously there are times when you cannot, like in the early game or in making some night actions, but it does make me a bit grumpy sometimes when you see people obviously not paying much attention to the evidence available in the thread when making their votes.

 

So, questions for discussion: to what extent does logic affect the way you think in mafia games? To what extent do you rely on gut instinct or intuition? Does it work?

[Arez Al'Loke]

I used to rely on logic, it directed anything I did. But soon I realised that doing everything logically may not always be for the best. You will more often than not, be accused of Wifoming, buddying up, misdirection etc, when trying to bring an alternate view to the general consious. So now I simply try to "manipulate" people even though I'm town, you know, guide the flow somewhere else.

 

When it comes to gut "instinct", only time I use it is as Vig... I know many disagree, saying you might hit the cop/doc. But I like using it to carry out my personal veiw of justice xP

Otherwise gut feelings are just in the way, sometimes blinding you from the obvious evidence gathered against someone else.

 

My 50 cents.

[cosmicpanda]

Depends what you mean by an alternative view. You have to be aware of how your own actions will be perceived by the town, but a good case on somebody can't be called wifom or buddying, except perhaps indirectly.

[John E. Kelley]

Honestly, I usually rely on my gut. Mainly because I'm just not that bright. Logic puzzles frustrate me, word problems back in school were my bane. So attempting to logically think through a situation and discover hidden information is just beyond my ability most of the time.

 

A major hinderance in Mafia for sure, but I just try to have fun and do the best I can without ruining the game for everyone else.

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

I have no logic. I don't understand what's going on most of the time. I think ppl are mostly bluster. oh, and spam and napping I guess.

[Turin Turambar]

I use both. There are things that just make the hair on my arms stand up. It does get difficult when your instinct is telling you one thing and your logical thought process is telling you something else. I usually go with what my thoughts are telling me but sometimes it is my voice I need to listen to.

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

so far i've gone with poor impulse control and low frustration tolerance. and a natural ability to be annoying. we'll see how that goes.

[hazelkrs1]

I use neither logic or instinct.

 

I just get a dartboard and assign sections of the dartboard to corresponding names in the mafia games I'm in, then go after whoever gets hit by a thrown dart.

 

And I make sure to put the mafia in the bullseye portion of the dartboard.

 

I am an excellent dart thrower.

[Alanna]

LOL!

[hazelkrs1]

[Niniel]

Honestly, I usually rely on my gut. Mainly because I'm just not that bright. Logic puzzles frustrate me, word problems back in school were my bane. So attempting to logically think through a situation and discover hidden information is just beyond my ability most of the time.

 

A major hinderance in Mafia for sure, but I just try to have fun and do the best I can without ruining the game for everyone else.

 

+1

[Tiinker]

I use neither logic or instinct.

 

I just get a dartboard and assign sections of the dartboard to corresponding names in the mafia games I'm in, then go after whoever gets hit by a thrown dart.

 

And I make sure to put the mafia in the bullseye portion of the dartboard.

 

I am an excellent dart thrower.

 

 

Aaaaand... sigg quote.

[Nolder]

So if the mafia is the bullseye where's the serial killer and cultists?

[Verbal32]

Guiding the dart toss, most likely.

[Sakaea]

Guiding the dart toss, most likely.

 

+1

[Darthe]

I try to mainly use gut now. I play the game logically but use my gut for leads on people and to see who I want to watch more closely. Our subconscious is far more powerful. Unfortunately, reasoning is our best tool and also the best way for the mafia to manipulate us. I find that other players thoughts and questioning my gut are the most common ways that I make mistakes. Also, since joining mafiascum recently I have been reading several of their articles and picking up some of their style. It is pretty damn efficient IMO.

 

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Chainsaw_Defense#Chainsaw_Defense

[hazelkrs1]

I use neither logic or instinct.

 

I just get a dartboard and assign sections of the dartboard to corresponding names in the mafia games I'm in, then go after whoever gets hit by a thrown dart.

 

And I make sure to put the mafia in the bullseye portion of the dartboard.

 

I am an excellent dart thrower.

 

 

Aaaaand... sigg quote.

 

You honor me kind sir

 

[LedZepMan]

I do stupid shirt and hope for the best

[hazelkrs1]

[LedZepMan]

Too true