Harry Potter Mafia Maddness <Game Over - Congrads Town & Siblings>

[Myndrunner]

So, just to be clear, Amadine....you are claiming to be Sirus Black and a miller, and you can also confirm Thorum's innocence?

[Amadine]

That is correct Mynd.

[Marta Sedai]

Ama, you are on my side :D

[Thorum]

Welcome back, Wolfie!!!

 

No hard feelings, I hope?

 

Btw, there's  still a lot of votes on me. Either you believe our claim or you don't. If you do, take your vote away. Just a free suggestion of mine ;D

[Verbal32]

But why reveal your other miller?  Now if you're lynched, you just confirmed the innocence of another player.  And that means the mafia get a NK with no information for the town, because you can be damn sure they'll stay away from incriminating themselves with Amadine.

 

I'm sorry, but I don't understand why this play was made.  :-\

[Wayward_fool]

*sighs* Looks like I gotta [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]. It's the weekend, which means inactivity for me. It's something that anyone who's played Mafia with me knows. So don't go lynching me while I'm gone.

 

I'll try to check in when I can, but for now... Happy Weekend y'all.

[Thorum]

But why reveal your other miller?  Now if you're lynched, you just confirmed the innocence of another player.  And that means the mafia get a NK with no information for the town, because you can be damn sure they'll stay away from incriminating themselves with Amadine.

 

No, they won't. Amadine will have too high a chance to be protected to be targeted by a nightkill. I've never seen a confirmed innocent nightkilled by mafia.

 

I can understand your not understanding why I declared Miller that soon. I doubted about doing it for a very long time also. But everything I did after that was perfectly logical.

[Thorum]

Koujin simply got striked through, Jessi got replaced by wolfie. Why?

 

Until I've got a real answer:

[glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]

 

[glow=red,2,300]vote wolfie[/glow]

 

It's nothing personal  :-*.

[Myndrunner]

Ok, here is my dilemma after reading pages and pages of pablum.  Thorum claims his miller role with no threat of being lynched, after already acting out of character.  Amadine supports his claim and reveals as Sirus Black, also some kind of miller character who can confirm Thorum's alignment. 

 

Thorum killed Wolfie, who was very likely an innocent, and now he is voting Wolfie again. 

 

I am probably not the biggest Harry Potter fan, but I have seen the films and I would find a hard time arguing that Sirus Black would be town aligned.  The miller claim also fits the Sirus claim.  It makes sense and Amadine backs up Thorum's claim.   

 

So why do I have a really bad feeling about unvoting Thorum right now? 

 

And would the Mod and Ass Mods allow Wolfie to replace a vanilla townie inactive, or a juicy mafia inactive?  Odds are, Wolfie has a role worth placing an active in.  Agreed?

[Thorum]

You're too smart to type that last line. Was it a glitch?

 

You were going after me quite hard also...

 

Tell me, why was Wolfie 'very likely an innocent'? More nor less than anyone else (except amadine and myself, that is). Unless you know more.

 

And now you're protecting wolfie. Again.

[Naeann]

But why reveal your other miller?  Now if you're lynched, you just confirmed the innocence of another player.  And that means the mafia get a NK with no information for the town, because you can be damn sure they'll stay away from incriminating themselves with Amadine.

 

No, they won't. Amadine will have too high a chance to be protected to be targeted by a nightkill. I've never seen a confirmed innocent nightkilled by mafia.

 

I can understand your not understanding why I declared Miller that soon. I doubted about doing it for a very long time also. But everything I did after that was perfectly logical.

 

Why in hell would a healer risk protecting a miller over themselves? They need to stay in the game in case it's discovered who the finder is.

[Jeran]

I think the reason Wolfie WAS likely innocent is because she was Cedric Diggory.  In fact, I'd say it is guaranteed Wolfie WAS innocent. 

 

Now?  Who knows.

[Amadine]

Unoffical Vote Count

Thorum(7): Mynd, Meesh, Verbal, Rose, Som1, Aust, Charis

Rose(2): rojano, Crusher

Dah'mir(2): Mottlee, Elli

Pankhuri(1): Jeran,

Boopsy(1): Nyn

Som1(1): Amadine

Adella(1): Wombat

Wombat(1): Adella

Aust(1): Nea

Aemon(1): Pookie

Daruya(1): Pete

Nyn(1): Marta

Amadine(1): Pankhuri

Mynd(1): Dah'mir

Wolfie(1): Thorum

 

 

no vote (16): Bela, Daruya, Lia, Aemon, Wolfie, Talya, Tigs, Summer, Player, Alanna, Locke, Blig Blog, Danya, Taei, Krak, Koujin, Boopsy

[Jeran]

I was going to ask (but forgot in my last post - I can't ever edit in mafia even if allowed  ;))

 

I only remember 1 person dieing (Wolfie) , but the last vote count says there are 39 alive and Koujin is crossed out in the non-voting list.  However, Koujin is still active in the OP.

 

Did I miss something, or is there an error?

[Amadine]

Sorry Koujin was crossed out in my Not Voting list, but the code didn't copy to my notes and i forgot to add it back.  So ...

 

no vote (16): Bela, Daruya, Lia, Aemon, Wolfie, Talya, Tigs, Summer, Player, Alanna, Locke, Blig Blog, Danya, Taei, Krak, Koujin, Boopsy

[Thorum]

I think the reason Wolfie WAS likely innocent is because she was Cedric Diggory.  In fact, I'd say it is guaranteed Wolfie WAS innocent. 

 

Now?  Who knows.

 

Which you didn't know before he died. the first time.

 

Why in hell would a healer risk protecting a miller over themselves? They need to stay in the game in case it's discovered who the finder is.

 

That's the first time ever I hear someone suggesting a healer to play the game like that. I don't agree. The healer is there to protect important roles and confirmed innocents. For no other reason.

 

I was going to ask (but forgot in my last post - I can't ever edit in mafia even if allowed  ;))

 

I only remember 1 person dieing (Wolfie) , but the last vote count says there are 39 alive and Koujin is crossed out in the non-voting list.  However, Koujin is still active in the OP.

 

Did I miss something, or is there an error?

 

The 16 in the 'no vote' list don't include Koujin, so he's probably modkilled or something. Which made me ask the question: why replace Jessi and not Koujin? Mafia is the most logical explanation here. I'ld even say a 50% chance (instead of 25% normally - maybe higher because it's a big game).

[Myndrunner]

Hey Thorum....read this!

 

I think the reason Wolfie WAS likely innocent is because she was Cedric Diggory.  In fact, I'd say it is guaranteed Wolfie WAS innocent. 

 

Wolfie is back in the game with a new role.  What are the odds that it is another innocent role, or woudl the Mods and Ass Mods likely want her to fill the shoes of a more necessary role?  Now, do you understand?  Did you or did you not have a hand in whacking Wolfie the first time? 

 

If that doesn't make sense, then perhaps you should further explain why you are now trying to eliminate Wolfie from the game.....again?

[Thorum]

This is gonna get mathematical:

 

$ 25 % chance someone is mafia

 

$ 2 people had to be modkilled:

              $  6.25 % chance they were both mafia (25% x 25%)

              $ 56.25 % chance neither of them was mafia (75 % x 75 %)

              $ 37.50 % chance one of them was mafia.

 

Any mod would prefer replacing a mafia over replacing an innocent, which means:

              $ 56.25 % chance the person replaced was innocent

              $ 43.75 % chance the person replaced was innocent (6.25 % + 37.50 %)

 

Which, otherwise said, means that Wolfie has a 43.75 % chance of being mafia.

Everyone else has a 25 % chance of being mafia.

 

Hence, new Wolfie is our best bet on a lynch.

 

Except Amadine and me, who have a 0 % chance of being mafia, but let's make the calculation without that kind of complication. I'm willing to make it if you want to, because I think it will make the difference larger, not smaller. Don't pin me on that, however.

[Thorum]

Other changes could be a bigger or smaller chance of a random someone being mafia. Which wouldn't change that Wolfie's chance is bigger than John Doe's.

[Thorum]

And don't come with the crappy excuse that I "wanna proof something with complicated maths and hence I have to be mafia".

 

There should be enough people in this game to understand it if you don't. It is conclusive proof of a higher likelyhood of Wolfies mafianess than anyone elses. Without taking into account anything in the previous 21 pages.

[Jeran]

Conclusive proof?  I'd have thought that the simplest explantion for replacing a player is that Jessibell(?) couldn't play any more so she was replaced.  This would require a mod philosophy of wanting everyone to play and avoidance of mod-killin's/loss of players through non-game means which seems reasonable.

 

If mods replaced only mafia/important roles they could be giving us extra information that we shouldn't have which does not seem reasonable.

 

Therefore I feel Wolfie's chance of being anti-town now is the same as everyone's was at the start of the game.

[Thorum]

If mods replaced only mafia/important roles they could be giving us extra information that we shouldn't have which does not seem reasonable.

 

Suppose you are a mod and have to modkill two people because of inactivity, and have only got 1 replacement. Which role do you wanna keep? The mafia player, or the townie who can, say, resurrect someone on day 4? The last is simply my own invention.

[Thorum]

If you would choose randomly, then my maths are invalid.

[WWWwombat]

I personally would try really hard to find a second replacement, but failing that would choose randomly who to replace and who to modkill.  Your math is fine but your logic is off.  Your argument is valid but not sound.

[Alanna]

Firstly, because people seem to be forgetting again, Wolfie is a GIRL.

 

Secondly, this idea that Wolfie is most likely mafia now, simply because she replaced someone, doesn't fly with me. Maybe if Koujin was modkilled, but we still don't have any explanation for that. And if that does turn out to be the case, I will agree it was a bad move for a mod to make, because it does point to Wolfie now having an important role.

 

BUT - that means we should lynch her now?! Who says the important role is even anti-town? We could end up lynching a finder or something. Bad, bad idea.

 

Also wanted to address this:

 

 

 

Why in hell would a healer risk protecting a miller over themselves? They need to stay in the game in case it's discovered who the finder is.

 

That's the first time ever I hear someone suggesting a healer to play the game like that. I don't agree. The healer is there to protect important roles and confirmed innocents. For no other reason.

 

 

Really? Th first time? Because I'm pretty sure most people play healer this way. Yes, the healer is there to protect important roles. A miller is not an important role; it's basically vanilla townie with some confusion thrown in, really. As for them protecting confirmed innocents - no, not this early in the game. It's more important they stay alive in order to protect more important revealed roles alter on (like finder and such). Sorry, but I certainly wouldn't protect Amadine at this stage in the game. That's why I can't get behind this reveal idea; I don't understand why it was necessary, and relying on healer protection was definitely a mistake.

 

For now, going with [glow=red,2,300]Thorum[/glow]. To be honest, I still keep switching back and forth between thinking he's scum and thinking the role reveal idea was just a bad one, but it's the best vote I've got, at the moment.