Tarmon Gai´don Mafia Part 1 - Tel´aran´rhiod

[Leyrann]

 

My POE would be

 

Yates

RTE

Talmanes

AJ

 

???

 

 

Yes, you are with the half I trust least.

[Leyrann]

Of course, a neccissary question is also, where does the other kill come from? I'm going to assume Vig or SK for now.

 

If we have a vig, I suppose the setup is most likely 4 mafia 8 town, while if it's an SK, it'll be 3 mafia, 1 SK, 8 town right?

[Leyrann]

I'm going to bed, please don't spam too much so I can catch up easily tomorrow.

 

/lazy

[Andrej]

Did you read D1?

 

My original vote pushed Zander into a tie with Talmanes for the lead. I could've easily went RTE/Rhea in that situation

[Andrej]

If we have a vig, I suppose the setup is most likely 4 mafia 8 town, while if it's an SK, it'll be 3 mafia, 1 SK, 8 town right?

 

9/3 most likely if it's a vig. 8/4 is too high a percentage of mafia unless it's 3 mafia and 1 SK specifically.

[Andrej]

Also I doubt mafia shoots Rhea over Hallia in that situation - and I don't see a SK shooting Rhea over basically ~anyone else.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

That was somewhat a joke. It was something that helped me find Clov last game.

 

That being said I am not as confident with him as other players this game.

 

Dice is a very viable option at this point. I think BFG, Ley, and Lee are town. For instance I do believe Verbal when he said Lee was town but doesn't mean him being able to read her makes him town.

[Andrej]

Dice is a very viable option at this point. I think BFG, Ley, and Lee are town. For instance I do believe Verbal when he said Lee was town but doesn't mean him being able to read her makes him town.

 

I'd really like to know why.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Also add Talmanes to that list based on his voting pattern yesterday as solid town. 

 

Dice made good posts early but then poofed. You telling me having Dice in this game with only 8 points doesn't worry you at all?

 

Think BFG has played like she does when she is town. Not expecting her to be any less helpful today. 

 

Ley's posts really look town to me. Really stable and solid.

 

Leelou has been engaging in more discussion and risky responses than I would expect a mafia player to. Verbal reading her as town does say a lot to me as well.

[Andrej]

Not sure on BFG, frankly. Not willing to give her the sort of credit I would before for voting late like that. Not condemning her but definitely not clearing her either.

 

I think Leelou looks more town because of the way she's using her vote. Sort of laissez-faire but its effective in the way that it produces results. First was the RTE wagon and then later with Zander. The only way I really see her as scum with Zander is if she's also scum with Verb. There was a little interaction between the two regarding Zander that could be something.

 

I'm not overly concerned with Dice's post count because he's never a top poster, but I would really like to see him getting more involved. 

 

I agree that Ley/Tal are most likely town - they are far outside of my POE at this point.

[Leelou]

Not sure on BFG, frankly. Not willing to give her the sort of credit I would before for voting late like that. Not condemning her but definitely not clearing her either.

 

I think Leelou looks more town because of the way she's using her vote. Sort of laissez-faire but its effective in the way that it produces results. First was the RTE wagon and then later with Zander. The only way I really see her as scum with Zander is if she's also scum with Verb. There was a little interaction between the two regarding Zander that could be something.

 

I'm not overly concerned with Dice's post count because he's never a top poster, but I would really like to see him getting more involved.

 

I agree that Ley/Tal are most likely town - they are far outside of my POE at this point.

Bold - you'd know by know if we were scum together, we just can't do it.

[Leelou]

Also add Talmanes to that list based on his voting pattern yesterday as solid town.

 

Dice made good posts early but then poofed. You telling me having Dice in this game with only 8 points doesn't worry you at all?

 

Think BFG has played like she does when she is town. Not expecting her to be any less helpful today.

 

Ley's posts really look town to me. Really stable and solid.

 

Leelou has been engaging in more discussion and risky responses than I would expect a mafia player to. Verbal reading her as town does say a lot to me as well.

Bold - why?

[Andrej]

Bold - you'd know by know if we were scum together, we just can't do it.

 

Depends. If you're both scum with Zander, the little interaction where you two question each other over him and then vote to push him to 5 could've been a coordinated bus that would look good in the future. Basically - if you're both scum - you just soft balled each other town cred.

 

Not really a lead I'm chasing at this point, but it's crossed my mind.

[Yates]

I want to get in a few ISOs soon.

Any comments/questions on my response to your Yates ISO?

[Talmanes]

I guess I thought Night ended later, but no matter. I think we have a lot of information to start D2 with.

 

I'm definitely leaning toward Vig, because Rhea was on a lot of people's suspect list (mine included) so I don't think a SK would go for someone who is being looked at as possible scum.

 

I've copied the list here to go over some thoughts.

 

1. Dice - Still nothing to make me suspicious of him, though I know he hasn't been around a lot (I believe he said he's in other games). I would like to see more of him.

2. Hallia, Cyndane, town cop was killed N1 - This is very unfortunate. This at least confirms Hallia was Town, which most people thought anyway. Yates seemed bothered about everyone thinking she was Town, but seemed genuinely unsure that she was.

3. Rhea, Talentless, vanilla town was killed N1 - I had my suspicions of her as well, but was willing to give her some benefit of a doubt since she had been busy. Like I said I really feel this must have been a Vig hit.

4. Yates - Yates honestly annoys me a bit, but seems genuine in hunting scum though I don't necessarily agree with his methods. Getting a Town lean here. His interaction with Zander seemed genuine as well.

5. RTE - Still very suspicious here, and this is likely where my vote will go. I can't get over his vote on Ley which then was followed shortly by Zander trying to start a bandwagon. Especially with Zander confirmed scum RTE looks good for a D2 lynch. He's done nothing to make me feel better about him thus far.

6. AJ - The fact that Zander repeatedly said AJ is Town worries me. He could have very easily trying to clear a teammate. I'll be watching closely.

7. Zander, Gaul, mafia goon was lynched D1 - This did not surprise me at all. As I said Zander was my number one pick for scum. Glad to see we got him lynched.

8. Verbal - Still don't have much on Verb. If anything I would have to go with null, because in have no feelings either way.

9. Leelou - Definitely thinking Town. Her actions have all seemed genuine and make me think she is Town. It would take a lot for me to change my mind, but for now I have a fair amount of trust for her judgement.

10. Seph/BFG - Seems okay so far but with the switch I'll need more time to really evaluate.

11. Talmanes - Town. I see I'm still on some lists and I would like to hear why. I've answered all concerns and took down scum D1, so I think I've pretty well shown I'm Town.

12. Ley - Based solely on behavior he seems normal. I know Ley well and haven't seen anything to make me suspicious. I'd say a Town lean here.

[Leelou]

 

I want to get in a few ISOs soon.

Any comments/questions on my response to your Yates ISO?

Haven't read it in detail yet, so no. Realistically won't happen until tomorrow.

[dicetosser1]

Fair enough. Also just because I changed my avi to a gorilla named Bongo doesn't mean you get to call me clumsy and dumb :(

 

Shoulda made it Grape Ape!. Nods

 

That was somewhat a joke. It was something that helped me find Clov last game.

 

That being said I am not as confident with him as other players this game.

 

Dice is a very viable option at this point. I think BFG, Ley, and Lee are town. For instance I do believe Verbal when he said Lee was town but doesn't mean him being able to read her makes him town.

 

Quoted this to say why and got ninjaed

 

Also add Talmanes to that list based on his voting pattern yesterday as solid town. 

 

Dice made good posts early but then poofed. You telling me having Dice in this game with only 8 points doesn't worry you at all?

 

Think BFG has played like she does when she is town. Not expecting her to be any less helpful today. 

 

Ley's posts really look town to me. Really stable and solid.

 

Leelou has been engaging in more discussion and risky responses than I would expect a mafia player to. Verbal reading her as town does say a lot to me as well.

 

Blue. What do you think i am?? Sili?? You NEVER get a million posts out of me and you know it. Plus I TOLD you i was in three games and wouldnt be very active til that was sorted. Well that got sorted but I missed the Zander lynch cause it was some stoopid AM time for me and then DM w/e hit. Guess what?  When theres not much talk going on I dont feel like talking much. Now add thaT I CONSCIOUSLY  try not to talk at night.

 

But you know what I with my 8 posts am not seeing from you with youre whopping middle of the board 37 votes?? a reason you should not be lynched. You almost got lynched yesterday then come out with crap like that about verbal??  You should be more worried about that then my post counts ESPECIALLY when you say what i did post was good!

 

 

 

 

Not sure on BFG, frankly. Not willing to give her the sort of credit I would before for voting late like that. Not condemning her but definitely not clearing her either.

 

I think Leelou looks more town because of the way she's using her vote. Sort of laissez-faire but its effective in the way that it produces results. First was the RTE wagon and then later with Zander. The only way I really see her as scum with Zander is if she's also scum with Verb. There was a little interaction between the two regarding Zander that could be something.

 

I'm not overly concerned with Dice's post count because he's never a top poster, but I would really like to see him getting more involved.

 

I agree that Ley/Tal are most likely town - they are far outside of my POE at this point.

Bold - you'd know by know if we were scum together, we just can't do it.

 

 

Im leaning town on you but that line sets my teeth on edge especially as I know you CAN do it tho it is more difficult for you two.

[Andrej]

Slow weekend?

 

Will do some ISOs tonight after lights out

[Leyrann]

Did you read D1?

 

My original vote pushed Zander into a tie with Talmanes for the lead. I could've easily went RTE/Rhea in that situation

 

I did.

 

And Zander was accumalating votes very fast, if you hadn't voted him, someone else probably would have. They weren't consolidation votes, mind you.

 

Also I doubt mafia shoots Rhea over Hallia in that situation - and I don't see a SK shooting Rhea over basically ~anyone else.

 

I have to agree her. I think Hallia shot by mafia and Rhea by vig is the most likely option.

[Leyrann]

My immediate POE is something like:

 

Yates

Verb

BFG

RTE

 

Dice could probably be in there too because I don't think he's done much to really earn a town read yet - and I know he's capable of faking tone.

 

Would also like to know why you put Verb and BFG on, considering I have both as town.

[BFG]

Morning :)

 

*Brings in cake for everyone

 

I'm not sure how much time I'll have until this evening/tomorrow as I have friends round for the weekend.

[BFG]

I have conflicting POEs at the moment, yesterday I was reading Dice, Leelou, Verb and RTE as town

 

But with the way the voting went down, I think I must have miscleared somebody here :/

 

I think I need to start from scratch again

[BFG]

 

*wipes brow*

 

Panicked for a second there that we were about to lynch the cop

*shrug* I didn't believe it for a second.

 

I believed it for a second

[BFG]

@Leelou:

 

Does this look like scum talking to scum to you?

 

 

 

@Zander - Consider this post a conditional vote on you. Feel like adding to the discussion, bro?

 

why me man?  think abou itt....in what world what i as "scum" start "suss" you early day 1 and risk bringing that heat on me...

 

answer none

 

That's absolutely a TMI slip, imo.

 

Not that I necessarily disagree, but it makes me nervous when people focus on clearing themselves first /shrug

 

 

 

Wait a second, we're not seriously going to lynch Verb for "being alive day 2", right?

 

Pretty sure it was a reference to the HP game

 

 

Of course, a neccissary question is also, where does the other kill come from? I'm going to assume Vig or SK for now.

 

If we have a vig, I suppose the setup is most likely 4 mafia 8 town, while if it's an SK, it'll be 3 mafia, 1 SK, 8 town right?

 

 

More likely 9v3 and more likely a vig instead of a SK imo

 

Also I doubt mafia shoots Rhea over Hallia in that situation - and I don't see a SK shooting Rhea over basically ~anyone else.

Pretty much this, Rhea was a ~good Vig shot though

[BFG]

I need to wake up before I go through Zanders ISO, Leelous analysis and train stuff from yesterday. I'll see what I can get done in the next hour or so :)