Tarmon Gai´don Mafia Part 1 - Tel´aran´rhiod

[Verbal32]

 

I gave it more thought now and realized he should definitely be in my POE pool. Of those in my POE pool, and looking back on the game so far including what we've had so far today on Day 2, I think he stands out as being the most off to me. 

 

Honestly the conclusion on N1 really threw off a lot of my Day 1 reads. Suddenly barring the tinfoil scenario, Talmanes looks really good, Hallia flipped town, and Rhea was off the table. Zander lone-wolf'ed it so we don't have much to go on from him and in a lot of ways we are in worse shape than we were. So in reassessing things, I think Verbal is a strong scum candidate this game. AJ, Yates, BFG, Talmanes, and Ley are all pretty firmly town for me right now. Dice has been here very sparsely, but when he has it's hard to argue his posts have been anything but quite town-sounding (Dice best wishes for your father by the way, sorry to hear that). Leelou is more town than not to me right now based on how she's reacted to posts and gotten into discussions she would have avoided as mafia IMO. So today that leaves me with Verbal. I'm undecided about AJ to some extent but his posts have been genuine and helpful to the game IMO and he's been pretty consistent (albeit I haven't looked so closely at voting patterns as Verbal is pointing out there may be some discrepancies there). 

 

So you literally swapped your #1 town and #1 scum read overnight?

 

Also, the bold is a contradiction.  If AJ is firmly town, then how are you undecided to some extent?  Why separate that out?  And how do you know he's being "genuine"?

 

 

Did you actually just slip twice in the span of one post?

 

 

You need to answer this reasonably well, or we're thunderdoming today.

[Verbal32]

 

I gave it more thought now and realized he should definitely be in my POE pool. Of those in my POE pool, and looking back on the game so far including what we've had so far today on Day 2, I think he stands out as being the most off to me. 

 

Honestly the conclusion on N1 really threw off a lot of my Day 1 reads. Suddenly barring the tinfoil scenario, Talmanes looks really good, Hallia flipped town, and Rhea was off the table. Zander lone-wolf'ed it so we don't have much to go on from him and in a lot of ways we are in worse shape than we were. So in reassessing things, I think Verbal is a strong scum candidate this game. AJ, Yates, BFG, Talmanes, and Ley are all pretty firmly town for me right now. Dice has been here very sparsely, but when he has it's hard to argue his posts have been anything but quite town-sounding (Dice best wishes for your father by the way, sorry to hear that). Leelou is more town than not to me right now based on how she's reacted to posts and gotten into discussions she would have avoided as mafia IMO. So today that leaves me with Verbal. I'm undecided about AJ to some extent but his posts have been genuine and helpful to the game IMO and he's been pretty consistent (albeit I haven't looked so closely at voting patterns as Verbal is pointing out there may be some discrepancies there). 

 

So you literally swapped your #1 town and #1 scum read overnight?

 

Also, the bold is a contradiction.  If AJ is firmly town, then how are you undecided to some extent?  Why separate that out?  And how do you know he's being "genuine"?

 

 

Did you actually just slip twice in the span of one post?

 

 

This, too.  I need an answer to this post as well.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

The thing is if you're town then that makes me question what I'm feeling about Andrej and Yates based on their posting. I feel the way they have interacted with others this game and put themselves out there is indicative of their town. If you consider risky exchanges or discussions, I think they have been a part of them and they wouldn't have done so as town (at least not to that extent).

 

So yea right now they feel firmly town. If I'm wrong about you I feel I need to be wrong about either Andrej or Yates and one of them must be scum. 

 

Not a slip. Not the most compelling reasoning. But it's what I got when I had to take a new look at this game after Night 1. So yes they swapped. And here we are. 

 

Answered here.

 

Look, I know I'm town. I know I had a bad day 1. I know I'm not ISO'ing people. What I am doing is making a pool of people who I think based on what we know so far are scum. Right now the pool is a kiddie pool and there's just about enough room for you in it.

 

Like I said I brought up AJ and Yates because I firmly believe one of the three of you are scum. 

 

One other thing I will mention is BFG usually is more active, and right now I believe she isn't due to time constraints. Whether she's actively avoiding the  thread or is actually busy to me would say something of her alignment. So far though I think she is firmly town. 

 

We can "thunderdome". I understand for a few reasons why I would be a good lynch. But then I'm not going down without getting as much info as possible so we aren't in this situation again come Day 3. I agree that you may be slow to start, but after yesterday I would expect you to have a lot more going on than making me your firm scum read because I poked you a few times now, whereas before (earlier in Day 2) you seemed more undecided. 

[ReleaseTheEvil]

So can people post either a reads list or what pool of people they believe scum are hiding? 

[Yates]

@Yates can you explain why you were characterising Talmanes as an activity lynch?

I was going to go ISO and just give you the number of posts. I was surprised, frankly, at how many posts he actually had given I couldn't remember a damn thing he had done or post he had made all game. *shrug* LOL me?

[Verbal32]

 

The thing is if you're town then that makes me question what I'm feeling about Andrej and Yates based on their posting. I feel the way they have interacted with others this game and put themselves out there is indicative of their town. If you consider risky exchanges or discussions, I think they have been a part of them and they wouldn't have done so as town (at least not to that extent).

 

So yea right now they feel firmly town. If I'm wrong about you I feel I need to be wrong about either Andrej or Yates and one of them must be scum. 

 

Not a slip. Not the most compelling reasoning. But it's what I got when I had to take a new look at this game after Night 1. So yes they swapped. And here we are. 

 

Answered here.

 

Look, I know I'm town. I know I had a bad day 1. I know I'm not ISO'ing people. What I am doing is making a pool of people who I think based on what we know so far are scum. Right now the pool is a kiddie pool and there's just about enough room for you in it.

 

Like I said I brought up AJ and Yates because I firmly believe one of the three of you are scum. 

 

One other thing I will mention is BFG usually is more active, and right now I believe she isn't due to time constraints. Whether she's actively avoiding the  thread or is actually busy to me would say something of her alignment. So far though I think she is firmly town. 

 

We can "thunderdome". I understand for a few reasons why I would be a good lynch. But then I'm not going down without getting as much info as possible so we aren't in this situation again come Day 3. I agree that you may be slow to start, but after yesterday I would expect you to have a lot more going on than making me your firm scum read because I poked you a few times now, whereas before (earlier in Day 2) you seemed more undecided. 

 

 

Earlier in D2?  These have been my first and only posts of this day, so what are you talking about?

 

And I never said you were a firm scum read.  I said you, like others, are in my POE simply because you're in the pile I'm NOT reading as town yet.  Are you trying to put words in my mouth?  I had enough of that in the champs finale, where TWO scum members used that as their primary method of casing me.

[Verbal32]

I honestly don't know what to make of you right now, RTE.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Listen, I didn't realize these were your first posts of the day but that doesn't alleviate my feeling that you aren't playing this game to win it for town. 

 

Instead I would really like to have a reads list from you to see how you feel about everyone who is still alive in this game. Not reading as town yet is not the same as a scum read. I want to know where you think scum are hiding and why. I told you why I've played who I did where and the same from you would be helpful. 

[ReleaseTheEvil]

I honestly don't know what to make of you right now, RTE.

 

I don't know what to make of this game after the N1 flips. So your guess is as good as mine about who the last scum members are this game. But as I don't think you're town I don't think you're as concerned. 

[Verbal32]

Listen, I didn't realize these were your first posts of the day but that doesn't alleviate my feeling that you aren't playing this game to win it for town. 

 

Instead I would really like to have a reads list from you to see how you feel about everyone who is still alive in this game. Not reading as town yet is not the same as a scum read. I want to know where you think scum are hiding and why. I told you why I've played who I did where and the same from you would be helpful. 

 

That is exactly what my point was before.  You said I read you as scum - I said no, I have you in POE (not reading as town enough to place as green or blue).  Now you're making my point for me.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Fine, then who are your scum reads? 

[Leelou]

Meh, Yates - getting to you after lunch, I promise!!! <3

 

But...

 

[v]RTE[/v]

 

Have not liked one of your posts yet today. 

[Talmanes]

At this point I'm even more convinced you are scum RTE.

 

You looked bad for picking a flimsy reason to start a push on D1 with Let, and so decided to try a bit harder on D2 to look reasonable. To me it seems you figured Verb hasn't been posting much, so you can throw suspicion his way without consequence. The interaction between the two of you makes me think Verb is very likely Town, and you even more so likely to be scum.

 

Maybe you even purposely chose not to use the scum kill on Verb specifically so you could pull this today.

 

Either way [v] Vote RTE [/v].

 

You've been my number two the entire game,and my number one is dead and confirmed scum. You're next.

[Verbal32]

Listen, I didn't realize these were your first posts of the day but that doesn't alleviate my feeling that you aren't playing this game to win it for town. 

 

Instead I would really like to have a reads list from you to see how you feel about everyone who is still alive in this game. Not reading as town yet is not the same as a scum read. I want to know where you think scum are hiding and why. I told you why I've played who I did where and the same from you would be helpful. 

 

Leelou - I've been very clear with what made her green yesterday and blue today.  Not being lynched this game unless I'm already dead.

 

Talmanes - was light green yesterday, and I'm ok with full green today.  Explains his thought process in a way that makes sense to me (which I supported yesterday).

 

Dice - partly associative due to Leelou also reading as town.  I read what she pointed out and I agree.  I didn't remember much from him early on, but when searching for him, I'm ok for now as light town.  [Side Note: my condolences, dude.  Take care of yourself and your family.]

Yates - close to a light town, but just enough tinfoil on my part to keep him here.  I think I believe him about meaning to say Leelou instead of Hallia yesterday, but I need to ISO him today in light of the flips.  Eh, f*ck it, I'm moving him to light green, but this slot is the one most likely to move one spot up or down.

 

Leyrann - same spot as Yates, actually.  Leaning towards a light town read, but not really enough to sway me either way.  I'll leave as "null black" because I don't have much to say about him.  His vote was early on Zander, so that doesn't really make it easy to read.  Him leaving it there does look decent, though.

 

RTE - has been called out as scummy by half the game, which is what is kinda making me put him here - seems TWTBAW (too wolfy to be a wolf, if I used that term correctly...?)  The case on me today probably comes from an uninformed townie rather than a suicidal scum, heh.  You can't make cases like that and expect traction.  I feel like his team would have counseled him on this....but I've been VERY wrong on this before (Eldrick was scum but playing weird and I thought he'd be counseled and he was scum anyway).

BFG - see below

AJ - no order to these two.  They both unvoted with the bad Cop claim from Zander, and AJ went as far as posting the "whew I thought we had lynched the Cop".  I usually read those posts as insincere, but that doesn't mean I'm being accurate there.  Still, these two are main suspects for me based on how EOD went down.  BFG mentioned not believing the claim, but that was after the unvote, so it doesn't really count.  That Hallia was a confident hammer after the claim is what obviously made her look like the Cop, so I view these unvotes as posturing.

[Talmanes]

@Leelou - Ninja'd. I agree with you obviously, but would like to hear your reasoning when you get a chance.

Your take on Yates would be interesting as well, which I know you said you'll be working on.

[Verbal32]

At this point I'm even more convinced you are scum RTE.

 

You looked bad for picking a flimsy reason to start a push on D1 with Let, and so decided to try a bit harder on D2 to look reasonable. To me it seems you figured Verb hasn't been posting much, so you can throw suspicion his way without consequence. The interaction between the two of you makes me think Verb is very likely Town, and you even more so likely to be scum.

 

Maybe you even purposely chose not to use the scum kill on Verb specifically so you could pull this today.

 

Either way [v] Vote RTE [/v].

 

You've been my number two the entire game,and my number one is dead and confirmed scum. You're next.

 

I honestly don't understand where this comes from.

 

Yates 137 Andrej 115 Leelou 101 Zander 75 Verbal32 71 BFG 69 Hallia 62 Leyrann 53 ReleaseTheEvil 51 TinaHel 41 Talmanes 36 dicetosser1 12 Rhea 11

[Verbal32]

Like, have I not being making game-related posts and analyzing what I think people are doing to make them town (D1) and quoting to show my thought process.  It baffles me that anybody would think I'm not posting much.....or not trying, which is where RTE is looking to go today.

[Verbal32]

should be a "?" at that end of that first sentence

[Verbal32]

And throwing suspicion at me without consequence might happen over a weekend, but not on a Monday morning.  If RTE is scum, there is a ZERO chance Leelou is with him.  Kinda what made me also move Yates to light green instead of leaving him black.  Monday is one of my most active days of the week, and most people know my mafia schedule by now (essentially the same as Yates has in his sig).

[Verbal32]

 

Listen, I didn't realize these were your first posts of the day but that doesn't alleviate my feeling that you aren't playing this game to win it for town. 

 

Instead I would really like to have a reads list from you to see how you feel about everyone who is still alive in this game. Not reading as town yet is not the same as a scum read. I want to know where you think scum are hiding and why. I told you why I've played who I did where and the same from you would be helpful. 

 

Leelou - I've been very clear with what made her green yesterday and blue today.  Not being lynched this game unless I'm already dead.

 

Talmanes - was light green yesterday, and I'm ok with full green today.  Explains his thought process in a way that makes sense to me (which I supported yesterday).

 

Dice - partly associative due to Leelou also reading as town.  I read what she pointed out and I agree.  I didn't remember much from him early on, but when searching for him, I'm ok for now as light town.  [Side Note: my condolences, dude.  Take care of yourself and your family.]

Yates - close to a light town, but just enough tinfoil on my part to keep him here.  I think I believe him about meaning to say Leelou instead of Hallia yesterday, but I need to ISO him today in light of the flips.  Eh, f*ck it, I'm moving him to light green, but this slot is the one most likely to move one spot up or down.

 

Leyrann - same spot as Yates, actually.  Leaning towards a light town read, but not really enough to sway me either way.  I'll leave as "null black" because I don't have much to say about him.  His vote was early on Zander, so that doesn't really make it easy to read.  Him leaving it there does look decent, though.

 

RTE - has been called out as scummy by half the game, which is what is kinda making me put him here - seems TWTBAW (too wolfy to be a wolf, if I used that term correctly...?)  The case on me today probably comes from an uninformed townie rather than a suicidal scum, heh.  You can't make cases like that and expect traction.  I feel like his team would have counseled him on this....but I've been VERY wrong on this before (Eldrick was scum but playing weird and I thought he'd be counseled and he was scum anyway).

BFG - see below

AJ - no order to these two.  They both unvoted with the bad Cop claim from Zander, and AJ went as far as posting the "whew I thought we had lynched the Cop".  I usually read those posts as insincere, but that doesn't mean I'm being accurate there.  Still, these two are main suspects for me based on how EOD went down.  BFG mentioned not believing the claim, but that was after the unvote, so it doesn't really count.  That Hallia was a confident hammer after the claim is what obviously made her look like the Cop, so I view these unvotes as posturing.

 

 

I'd like to add that if I had to pick the clearest scum read for me, it would be leaving RTE orange and making both BFG and AJ red.  I don't have enough yet to do that, but gun to head that's where I'm at right now.  No way both of them are scum - I don't see multiple teammates doing the exact same thing at the same time.

[Leelou]

 

 

Listen, I didn't realize these were your first posts of the day but that doesn't alleviate my feeling that you aren't playing this game to win it for town. 

 

Instead I would really like to have a reads list from you to see how you feel about everyone who is still alive in this game. Not reading as town yet is not the same as a scum read. I want to know where you think scum are hiding and why. I told you why I've played who I did where and the same from you would be helpful. 

 

Leelou - I've been very clear with what made her green yesterday and blue today.  Not being lynched this game unless I'm already dead.

 

Talmanes - was light green yesterday, and I'm ok with full green today.  Explains his thought process in a way that makes sense to me (which I supported yesterday).

 

Dice - partly associative due to Leelou also reading as town.  I read what she pointed out and I agree.  I didn't remember much from him early on, but when searching for him, I'm ok for now as light town.  [Side Note: my condolences, dude.  Take care of yourself and your family.]

Yates - close to a light town, but just enough tinfoil on my part to keep him here.  I think I believe him about meaning to say Leelou instead of Hallia yesterday, but I need to ISO him today in light of the flips.  Eh, f*ck it, I'm moving him to light green, but this slot is the one most likely to move one spot up or down.

 

Leyrann - same spot as Yates, actually.  Leaning towards a light town read, but not really enough to sway me either way.  I'll leave as "null black" because I don't have much to say about him.  His vote was early on Zander, so that doesn't really make it easy to read.  Him leaving it there does look decent, though.

 

RTE - has been called out as scummy by half the game, which is what is kinda making me put him here - seems TWTBAW (too wolfy to be a wolf, if I used that term correctly...?)  The case on me today probably comes from an uninformed townie rather than a suicidal scum, heh.  You can't make cases like that and expect traction.  I feel like his team would have counseled him on this....but I've been VERY wrong on this before (Eldrick was scum but playing weird and I thought he'd be counseled and he was scum anyway).

BFG - see below

AJ - no order to these two.  They both unvoted with the bad Cop claim from Zander, and AJ went as far as posting the "whew I thought we had lynched the Cop".  I usually read those posts as insincere, but that doesn't mean I'm being accurate there.  Still, these two are main suspects for me based on how EOD went down.  BFG mentioned not believing the claim, but that was after the unvote, so it doesn't really count.  That Hallia was a confident hammer after the claim is what obviously made her look like the Cop, so I view these unvotes as posturing.

 

 

I'd like to add that if I had to pick the clearest scum read for me, it would be leaving RTE orange and making both BFG and AJ red.  I don't have enough yet to do that, but gun to head that's where I'm at right now.  No way both of them are scum - I don't see multiple teammates doing the exact same thing at the same time.

 

 

I actually have uneasy feelings about BFG after rereading EOD yesterday. I have to run to a quick meeting, so after lunch as well for that! 

[Verbal32]

I actually have uneasy feelings about BFG after rereading EOD yesterday. I have to run to a quick meeting, so after lunch as well for that! 

 

I'm stuck between both AJ and BFG re: EOD.  For reference, here is what I'm thinking:

 

AJ

- unvoted after the Cop claim with maybe 3-4 minutes to spare?

- was an early vote on the train to tie him with Talmanes at 3 apiece, which is a safe spot

- made the "whew afraid we lynched the Cop" post, which is more suspicious right before the actual Cop is killed (I might be reading too much into that one, I admit)

- made a point to call attention to the 3rd vote on Zander being a "good look"

 

BFG

- unvoted after the Cop claim just like AJ

- quickly unvoted again (but didn't go back to Zander)

- stated she didn't believe Zander, but it looks too late and still wasn't accompanied by a re-vote

 

 

If there is more on them re: EOD, I may have missed it.  Looking forward to your thoughts on this.

[Yates]

 

Leelou - I've been very clear with what made her green yesterday and blue today.  Not being lynched this game unless I'm already dead.

 

Talmanes - was light green yesterday, and I'm ok with full green today.  Explains his thought process in a way that makes sense to me (which I supported yesterday).

 

Dice - partly associative due to Leelou also reading as town.  I read what she pointed out and I agree.  I didn't remember much from him early on, but when searching for him, I'm ok for now as light town.  [Side Note: my condolences, dude.  Take care of yourself and your family.]

Yates - close to a light town, but just enough tinfoil on my part to keep him here.  I think I believe him about meaning to say Leelou instead of Hallia yesterday, but I need to ISO him today in light of the flips.  Eh, f*ck it, I'm moving him to light green, but this slot is the one most likely to move one spot up or down.

 

Leyrann - same spot as Yates, actually.  Leaning towards a light town read, but not really enough to sway me either way.  I'll leave as "null black" because I don't have much to say about him.  His vote was early on Zander, so that doesn't really make it easy to read.  Him leaving it there does look decent, though.

 

RTE - has been called out as scummy by half the game, which is what is kinda making me put him here - seems TWTBAW (too wolfy to be a wolf, if I used that term correctly...?)  The case on me today probably comes from an uninformed townie rather than a suicidal scum, heh.  You can't make cases like that and expect traction.  I feel like his team would have counseled him on this....but I've been VERY wrong on this before (Eldrick was scum but playing weird and I thought he'd be counseled and he was scum anyway).

BFG - see below

AJ - no order to these two.  They both unvoted with the bad Cop claim from Zander, and AJ went as far as posting the "whew I thought we had lynched the Cop".  I usually read those posts as insincere, but that doesn't mean I'm being accurate there.  Still, these two are main suspects for me based on how EOD went down.  BFG mentioned not believing the claim, but that was after the unvote, so it doesn't really count.  That Hallia was a confident hammer after the claim is what obviously made her look like the Cop, so I view these unvotes as posturing.

 

I like this reads list from Verbal. A+ Would read again.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

 

 

I actually have uneasy feelings about BFG after rereading EOD yesterday. I have to run to a quick meeting, so after lunch as well for that!

I'm stuck between both AJ and BFG re: EOD. For reference, here is what I'm thinking:

 

AJ

- unvoted after the Cop claim with maybe 3-4 minutes to spare?

- was an early vote on the train to tie him with Talmanes at 3 apiece, which is a safe spot

- made the "whew afraid we lynched the Cop" post, which is more suspicious right before the actual Cop is killed (I might be reading too much into that one, I admit)

- made a point to call attention to the 3rd vote on Zander being a "good look"

 

BFG

- unvoted after the Cop claim just like AJ

- quickly unvoted again (but didn't go back to Zander)

- stated she didn't believe Zander, but it looks too late and still wasn't accompanied by a re-vote

 

 

If there is more on them re: EOD, I may have missed it. Looking forward to your thoughts on this.

Think this is your best post of the game. Easily. Yea you've been posting. But I disagree with how much of it has been content attempting to solve the game.

 

At this point I think my lynch is the most useful for town, even if it's a mislynch. Use the information you get from it and make some big moves day 3.

 

I'd like to see more people make reads lists like Verbal's.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

On a sidenote if I had time I would ISO all posts where there are interactions between Yates, AJ, and Zander. If Verbal isn't scum that's the next place to look, without a doubt.