Tarmon Gai´don Mafia Part 1 - Tel´aran´rhiod

[Talmanes]

@Verb, I didn't say you weren't posting much, just that it seemed to be what RTE was trying to push about you. Everyone was quiet over the weekend, and I think he picked the wrong time to push.

 

I get the idea that scum would be counseled, but that would have applied to Zander as well who looked incredibly scummy to me.

 

It's a little early to say, but I'm betting we have a fairly inexperienced scum.

 

As for AJ and BFG, I have my suspicions if AJ as I've stated, but nothing strong enough to vote on yet. BFG I am leaning Town, but that is more of a hunch, and I have little to substantiate it.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

@Verb, I didn't say you weren't posting much, just that it seemed to be what RTE was trying to push about you. Everyone was quiet over the weekend, and I think he picked the wrong time to push.

 

I get the idea that scum would be counseled, but that would have applied to Zander as well who looked incredibly scummy to me.

 

It's a little early to say, but I'm betting we have a fairly inexperienced scum.

 

As for AJ and BFG, I have my suspicions if AJ as I've stated, but nothing strong enough to vote on yet. BFG I am leaning Town, but that is more of a hunch, and I have little to substantiate it.

There are no inexperienced players left alive so I completely disagree there.

 

If you've played in enough games with Zander (like 2) I think that's his usual posting style so that didn't surprise me so much. If anything I kind of overlooked it. Best hint was his leaving his vote on Ley.

 

With my lynch after tonight we will be down two town so make sure you get what you need from today to be ready for Day 3. No excuses.

[Verbal32]

 

 

I actually have uneasy feelings about BFG after rereading EOD yesterday. I have to run to a quick meeting, so after lunch as well for that!

I'm stuck between both AJ and BFG re: EOD. For reference, here is what I'm thinking:

 

AJ

- unvoted after the Cop claim with maybe 3-4 minutes to spare?

- was an early vote on the train to tie him with Talmanes at 3 apiece, which is a safe spot

- made the "whew afraid we lynched the Cop" post, which is more suspicious right before the actual Cop is killed (I might be reading too much into that one, I admit)

- made a point to call attention to the 3rd vote on Zander being a "good look"

 

BFG

- unvoted after the Cop claim just like AJ

- quickly unvoted again (but didn't go back to Zander)

- stated she didn't believe Zander, but it looks too late and still wasn't accompanied by a re-vote

 

 

If there is more on them re: EOD, I may have missed it. Looking forward to your thoughts on this.

Think this is your best post of the game. Easily. Yea you've been posting. But I disagree with how much of it has been content attempting to solve the game.

 

At this point I think my lynch is the most useful for town, even if it's a mislynch. Use the information you get from it and make some big moves day 3.

 

I'd like to see more people make reads lists like Verbal's.

 

 

Finding townies is solving, though.  That's my point.  You saying I'm not solving, and I couldn't disagree more.  I'm narrowing the POE by removing townies (imo) on D1 and D2, and narrowing the scum pool.  D2, like I said and like I'm doing, is where I can use the flips and night results to start casing with real info to substantiate it.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

I'm trying to do the same. Just so happens you are in my POE. From town to scum as an updated list I'd have:

 

Ley

BFG

Talmanes

Lee

Dice

Yates

Andrej

Verbal

 

I think the best bet for the last scum are in the last four.

[Talmanes]

@RTE - I said inexperienced Mafia, not necessarily I experienced in general.

 

I don't think you will be a mislynch.

 

You make weak pushes with nothing to back them up, and then pull the 'oh well I'm gonna get lynched I guess' thing again. You're following the exact same pattern as D1 and it nearly got you lynched then.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Doesn't make me scum. I'd like to point out just because I'm not isoing doesn't mean I'm wrong. I just don't have time to dig up posts and whatnot. They may be weak but that doesn't make them wrong.

 

Frankly you need to play carefully. Based on who is left this game will be hard to find remaining scum. I didn't get lynched day 1 but if I do day 2 I will with having gotten people to come out and post so you can use that day 3.

 

Talmanes when I flip town who are you looking at next?

[ReleaseTheEvil]

And no one left here would be inexperienced scum anyways. Everyone has many games under the belt.

[Leyrann]

I think he hasn't done much to solve this game. Now I'm not saying I've made any outstanding contributions myself but Verbal is usually somewhat of a town leader. He has a strong opinion, he takes his leads very seriously, and will pursue scum to the grave. Haven't seen any of that this game yet. I know I'll get flack for this but if he isn't lynched today and is around Day 3 that says a lot. That says either scum doesn't think he's been valuable enough to this game to kill (really rare for Verbal) or to me it says something else is up.

 

I think a town Verbal would be trying harder. Frankly that is most of it. 

 

So basically, yes, the main part of your case on him is him surviving night 1.

 

I gave it more thought now and realized he should definitely be in my POE pool. Of those in my POE pool, and looking back on the game so far including what we've had so far today on Day 2, I think he stands out as being the most off to me. 

 

Honestly the conclusion on N1 really threw off a lot of my Day 1 reads. Suddenly barring the tinfoil scenario, Talmanes looks really good, Hallia flipped town, and Rhea was off the table. Zander lone-wolf'ed it so we don't have much to go on from him and in a lot of ways we are in worse shape than we were. So in reassessing things, I think Verbal is a strong scum candidate this game. AJ, Yates, BFG, Talmanes, and Ley are all pretty firmly town for me right now. Dice has been here very sparsely, but when he has it's hard to argue his posts have been anything but quite town-sounding (Dice best wishes for your father by the way, sorry to hear that). Leelou is more town than not to me right now based on how she's reacted to posts and gotten into discussions she would have avoided as mafia IMO. So today that leaves me with Verbal. I'm undecided about AJ to some extent but his posts have been genuine and helpful to the game IMO and he's been pretty consistent (albeit I haven't looked so closely at voting patterns as Verbal is pointing out there may be some discrepancies there). 

 

Soo... Your #1 scum read (Talmanes) now looks "really good". You haven't yet explained why. Please do so.

 

And I wanted to pont out the two different opinions about AJ in this post but Verb already did that. (just like he pointed out the change of stance on Talmanes, but you didn't reply to that.)

 

So can people post either a reads list or what pool of people they believe scum are hiding? 

 

That's the second time you're asking this when it looks like you might get lynched, and I'm starting to think you're doing it as an easy way to get town cred. Also, if you ask this, why don't you simply go ahead and do it yourself? You're not exempt from things like this just because you're the one to ask for them. No good reason not to do it at that point.

 

 

Listen, I didn't realize these were your first posts of the day but that doesn't alleviate my feeling that you aren't playing this game to win it for town. 

 

Instead I would really like to have a reads list from you to see how you feel about everyone who is still alive in this game. Not reading as town yet is not the same as a scum read. I want to know where you think scum are hiding and why. I told you why I've played who I did where and the same from you would be helpful. 

 

Leelou - I've been very clear with what made her green yesterday and blue today.  Not being lynched this game unless I'm already dead.

 

Talmanes - was light green yesterday, and I'm ok with full green today.  Explains his thought process in a way that makes sense to me (which I supported yesterday).

 

Dice - partly associative due to Leelou also reading as town.  I read what she pointed out and I agree.  I didn't remember much from him early on, but when searching for him, I'm ok for now as light town.  [Side Note: my condolences, dude.  Take care of yourself and your family.]

Yates - close to a light town, but just enough tinfoil on my part to keep him here.  I think I believe him about meaning to say Leelou instead of Hallia yesterday, but I need to ISO him today in light of the flips.  Eh, f*ck it, I'm moving him to light green, but this slot is the one most likely to move one spot up or down.

 

Leyrann - same spot as Yates, actually.  Leaning towards a light town read, but not really enough to sway me either way.  I'll leave as "null black" because I don't have much to say about him.  His vote was early on Zander, so that doesn't really make it easy to read.  Him leaving it there does look decent, though.

 

RTE - has been called out as scummy by half the game, which is what is kinda making me put him here - seems TWTBAW (too wolfy to be a wolf, if I used that term correctly...?)  The case on me today probably comes from an uninformed townie rather than a suicidal scum, heh.  You can't make cases like that and expect traction.  I feel like his team would have counseled him on this....but I've been VERY wrong on this before (Eldrick was scum but playing weird and I thought he'd be counseled and he was scum anyway).

BFG - see below

AJ - no order to these two.  They both unvoted with the bad Cop claim from Zander, and AJ went as far as posting the "whew I thought we had lynched the Cop".  I usually read those posts as insincere, but that doesn't mean I'm being accurate there.  Still, these two are main suspects for me based on how EOD went down.  BFG mentioned not believing the claim, but that was after the unvote, so it doesn't really count.  That Hallia was a confident hammer after the claim is what obviously made her look like the Cop, so I view these unvotes as posturing.

 

 

Good point on BFG, hadn't thought about that. Also, I'd say that RTE *should* know better than to make a case like this, which makes me think that he is mafia and they indeed didn't kill you off in order to then start this, erm, "case"?

 

Doesn't make me scum. I'd like to point out just because I'm not isoing doesn't mean I'm wrong. I just don't have time to dig up posts and whatnot. They may be weak but that doesn't make them wrong.

 

Frankly you need to play carefully. Based on who is left this game will be hard to find remaining scum. I didn't get lynched day 1 but if I do day 2 I will with having gotten people to come out and post so you can use that day 3.

 

Talmanes when I flip town who are you looking at next?

 

I don't iso either, I don't dig up posts either, and yet I'm not looking extremely scummy.

 

That next line nearly sounds like a thread by the way. Typical game balances allows for AT LEAST one mislynch, maybe two.

 

Fyi, in the very small chance you'd turn town, I'd probably look at AJ and Yates. But I'm not sure. You're my only real scum read at the moment.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Well then the quickest way to resolve this and move forward with the game is to get my lynch and keep going.

 

[unvote] [v] RTE [/v] 

[Leelou]

 

@Verb, I didn't say you weren't posting much, just that it seemed to be what RTE was trying to push about you. Everyone was quiet over the weekend, and I think he picked the wrong time to push.

 

I get the idea that scum would be counseled, but that would have applied to Zander as well who looked incredibly scummy to me.

 

It's a little early to say, but I'm betting we have a fairly inexperienced scum.

 

As for AJ and BFG, I have my suspicions if AJ as I've stated, but nothing strong enough to vote on yet. BFG I am leaning Town, but that is more of a hunch, and I have little to substantiate it.

There are no inexperienced players left alive so I completely disagree there.

 

If you've played in enough games with Zander (like 2) I think that's his usual posting style so that didn't surprise me so much. If anything I kind of overlooked it. Best hint was his leaving his vote on Ley.

 

With my lynch after tonight we will be down two town so make sure you get what you need from today to be ready for Day 3. No excuses.

 

 

This line is fear mongering. There is still mostly likely a doc in play, and what if our mystery killer is lucky and gets scum? 

[ReleaseTheEvil]

 

 

@Verb, I didn't say you weren't posting much, just that it seemed to be what RTE was trying to push about you. Everyone was quiet over the weekend, and I think he picked the wrong time to push.

 

I get the idea that scum would be counseled, but that would have applied to Zander as well who looked incredibly scummy to me.

 

It's a little early to say, but I'm betting we have a fairly inexperienced scum.

 

As for AJ and BFG, I have my suspicions if AJ as I've stated, but nothing strong enough to vote on yet. BFG I am leaning Town, but that is more of a hunch, and I have little to substantiate it.

There are no inexperienced players left alive so I completely disagree there.

 

If you've played in enough games with Zander (like 2) I think that's his usual posting style so that didn't surprise me so much. If anything I kind of overlooked it. Best hint was his leaving his vote on Ley.

 

With my lynch after tonight we will be down two town so make sure you get what you need from today to be ready for Day 3. No excuses.

 

 

This line is fear mongering. There is still mostly likely a doc in play, and what if our mystery killer is lucky and gets scum? 

 

 

Hopefully. Didn't consider the doc but there is a distinct possibility of being down two town tomorrow all the same. 

[Leyrann]

Well then the quickest way to resolve this and move forward with the game is to get my lynch and keep going.

 

[unvote] [v] RTE [/v] 

 

I'm just thinking you're bluffing and trying to get people off your wagon this way.

 

I'm not jumping off.

[Leyrann]

Would like to mention, once again, that we have a hybrid hammer by the way. That requires TOTALLY different voting style.

[Leyrann]

Also, if we get a majority before deadline, that means we lose discussion time. You want that?

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Also, if we get a majority before deadline, that means we lose discussion time. You want that?

 

Eh the discussion has stalled because everyone is content to pile onto my train. Which is fair enough. Like I said I think we should be making the most of Day 2 as I know this is going to be a mislynch. But at this point hard to look past my lynch. So I just figure people need to see my flip and move on.

[Leelou]

 

Also, if we get a majority before deadline, that means we lose discussion time. You want that?

 

Eh the discussion has stalled because everyone is content to pile onto my train. Which is fair enough. Like I said I think we should be making the most of Day 2 as I know this is going to be a mislynch. But at this point hard to look past my lynch. So I just figure people need to see my flip and move on.

 

 

Um no, you keep digging yourself a hole. 

[Leyrann]

 

Also, if we get a majority before deadline, that means we lose discussion time. You want that?

 

Eh the discussion has stalled because everyone is content to pile onto my train. Which is fair enough. Like I said I think we should be making the most of Day 2 as I know this is going to be a mislynch. But at this point hard to look past my lynch. So I just figure people need to see my flip and move on.

 

 

Stop the goddamn defeatism. Seriously. It's depressing to read.

[Leelou]

 

 

Also, if we get a majority before deadline, that means we lose discussion time. You want that?

 

Eh the discussion has stalled because everyone is content to pile onto my train. Which is fair enough. Like I said I think we should be making the most of Day 2 as I know this is going to be a mislynch. But at this point hard to look past my lynch. So I just figure people need to see my flip and move on.

 

 

Stop the goddamn defeatism. Seriously. It's depressing to read.

 

 

It's called AtE. 

[ReleaseTheEvil]

 

 

Also, if we get a majority before deadline, that means we lose discussion time. You want that?

 

Eh the discussion has stalled because everyone is content to pile onto my train. Which is fair enough. Like I said I think we should be making the most of Day 2 as I know this is going to be a mislynch. But at this point hard to look past my lynch. So I just figure people need to see my flip and move on.

 

 

Stop the goddamn defeatism. Seriously. It's depressing to read.

 

 

That's why I asked who are other people looking at or considering as their scum reads. 

[Leyrann]

What's that written out full?

[Leyrann]

(ninja'd)

[Leyrann]

Also, you still haven't answered my question. What changed your opinion on Talmanes?

[ReleaseTheEvil]

It's not for nothing that I asked Talmanes what happens when I flip town. Based on what he said I'm his strongest scum reads for two days and that was about it. Therefore it should be of interest to everyone to consider what the heck happens on Day 3 when I flip town. Obviously you will have night flips but some forethought wouldn't hurt anyone. 

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Also, you still haven't answered my question. What changed your opinion on Talmanes?

 

Him being on Zander from the start of day. It's not unheard of, and AJ's tinfoil case is a good one, but I don't think scum would have done that. Also his early switch to Zander. He may be playing us all though ala AJ-described scenario. 

[Leelou]

What's that written out full?

 

Appeal to emotion.