Is ever victorious army a myth?

[Mr Ares]

well thank you very much and I accept the rebuttal of my facts as fair but in all honesty have you ever seen 300,000 people in one place? I have and they are lot of people you reduce everything by half they still require a lot of resources and support staff. which is utterly ridiculous I am not going on a tangent it is you who are refusing to meet the fact head on that No one can conjure a fighting force of that size out of thin air. so if you cannot have tat second force tan you cannot win that war. It means we have hit a paradox. Either you accept that it is very bad writing or you concede that there is no EVA.

No-one is claiming that they did conjure it out of thin air. And if you can have that second force - and clearly the Seanchan can have it, because they do - then you might be able to win. Your argument is utterly absurd. How many soldiers did the Seanchan bring with them? How many did they recruit? How many were absorbed from the existing armies of the nations they conquered and how many were new recruits? Simply saying they can't have an army that big because it would be really difficult doesn't really constitute a valid argument. I don't think most people want to read chapter after chapter of logistics. Why should we accept the case of either bad writing or non-existence on the part of the EVA? You haven't shown any evidence of bad writing, so much as the text not being a complete breakdown of the Seanchan forces. Such information would be useful to this debate, but is hardly necessary to the story, and therefore it is not unreasonable for it to be left out.

[Suttree]

Actually...it's your knowledge of the facts that are lacking. The 150,000 was the minimal estimate Ituralde had in tGS prologue, before the Seanchan arrived.

 

What? The 150,000 count was made while he was looking through his glass at the force. I had forgotten about the second number in Ch.6 but it might be a mistake as again the first count is made with the army in sight...not before they arrived. If it turns out to be right I stand corrected. Either way the 300-600 claim is not correct which was my point.

 

The new force coming his way was even larger with even more than 300,000 as well as over 200 damane to boot.

 

As for the second...so if you were referring to me not adding the "over" I guess your right but that is beyond splitting hairs.

 

TGS

He studied his maps again, holding a smaller one up before him. He could use better maps, that was certain. "This new Seanchan general," Ituralde said, "is marshaling over three hundred thousand men, with a good two hundred damane."

[Thrasymachus]

After seven pages, I'm still not entirely sure what this whole thread is about. If it's that the logistics of the Seanchan invasion aren't reasonable, well, arguably, the same could be said for every other force in Randland. If it's that the name of their army is misrepresentative, well, duh. How come you're not complaining that Mat's Band of the Red Hand aren't all dying or tattooing their hands red? The point of the name isn't that the army wins every battle, it's that the Seanchan win every war. And so far, anyway, that's true. The war the Seanchan have is with the rest of the Randlands. Even losing their continued offensive push into Illian thanks to Rand's intervention, or having the invasion of Arad Doman and Tarabon disrupted by Ituralde doesn't mean they've lost their war, it's just a setback. But at the end of the day, even that doesn't matter. The name's propaganda, a means of increasing the moral and recruitment of their own armies while demoralizing their opponents.

 

Could the Seanchan be ultimately defeated and driven back into the sea? Maybe, but probably only if all the rest of non-Seanchan forces teamed up effectively right after the Last Battle and committed to do it. Even then, I wouldn't given them better than a one in three chance to succeed. It would especially require the concerted and coordinated efforts of the White Tower, Aiel Wise Ones and the Ashaman to even have a chance.

 

But the real strength of the Seanchan doesn't come from their army or their damane, instead, it comes from their political structures. That strength has always been identified as their adaptability to new tactics, terrains, cultures and forces. This comes from a certain federalism in the structures of their Empire. The various kingdoms and nations under that Empire appear to be mostly free to govern themselves as they always had, but their nobility or ruling factions are subsumed under those of the Empire's, and the nation itself is only required to pay its taxes or "tribute" to the empire in the form of goods and men for its armies. This would give the Empire, and its armies, a lot of diversity in both experience and abilities. Far from forcing a single, ideological solution everywhere whether it works or not, the Seanchan are adept at figuring out what works and changing themselves enough to put that practical solution into play.

 

This is one reason I feel certain that they will soon be giving up the keeping of sparkers as damane, and the keeping of slaves in general. Those practices are the source of too much opposition to them. By giving up damane, they placate the White Tower, which is really the only force capable of rallying the rest of the Randlands to an organized resistance to them. By giving up da'covale, they placate the Aiel, which is the only army that could conceivably challenge them, and even then, as Aviendha's vision demonstrates, only if the Aiel get right on with challenging them, instead of waiting for a generation. By giving up those two things, the Seanchan maintain their organizational superiority, and fracture the main basis of opposition to them. Still, given how central the keeping of damane and da'covale are to the Seanchan culture, this will likely be the greatest test of adaptability they have ever faced. And they could still win without having to give them up.

[Finnssss22]

Actually...it's your knowledge of the facts that are lacking. The 150,000 was the minimal estimate Ituralde had in tGS prologue, before the Seanchan arrived.

 

What? The 150,000 count was made while he was looking through his glass at the force. I had forgotten about the second number in Ch.6 but it might be a mistake as again the first count is made with the army in sight...not before they arrived. If it turns out to be right I stand corrected. Either way the 300-600 claim is not correct which was my point.

 

The new force coming his way was even larger with even more than 300,000 as well as over 200 damane to boot.

 

As for the second...so if you were referring to me not adding the "over" I guess your right but that is beyond splitting hairs.

 

TGS

He studied his maps again, holding a smaller one up before him. He could use better maps, that was certain. "This new Seanchan general," Ituralde said, "is marshaling over three hundred thousand men, with a good two hundred damane."

 

I wasn't splitting hairs, I simply presented the facts.

 

As far as the logistics...ships were obviously making round trips to Seanchan on a regular basis or else how would it of been possible for Tuon to purchase Sheraine/Mylen on the docks of Shon Kifar in Seanchan.

[Maleshub]

One of the key differences between the Seanchan and their Randland opponents is that Seanchan is an Empire (a number of kingdoms); whereas its Randland opponents are individual kingdoms. In that context, Randland opponents have not chance to stop the Seanchan. It would require an opposing empire to do so effectively.

 

Take Rodel's (Arad Doman) example. He was able to wage an attrition campaign in the heart of Seanchan controlled land; and then, he was able to soundly defeat a major army (150K or 300K isn't the point here ... Let me for argument's sake say it is 200K - matching the largest armies that can be fielded by a Randland kingdom: Andor or Borderlander domain). A conservative estimate would probably indicate that Rodel managed to kill and seriously injure up to 100K troops in the attrition campaign and battle. That would set a kingdom back a couple of generations.

 

But the Seanchan regrouped the troops that fled Darluna (for discussion sake an estimate of 100K troops), replaced the damane they lost with 200 new ones, and gave chase.

 

On a side note, I think Rodel's brilliance is clear in his decision to take refuge in an abandoned stedding, neutralizing the damane; and giving him a chance to fight steel with steel.

 

Anyway, back to the main point. Seanchan is an empire that is gobbling up individual kingdoms and adding their human and material resources to its arsenal.

 

Another advantage that the Seanchan have is their institutionalized military establishment. Whereas kingdoms rely on nationality, ethnicity to recruit and lead their armies, the Seanchan have an institution that gives a chance to any capable soldier to climb up the ranks; and is willing to recruit soldiers of many and almost all nationalities. That is why Tylee, a banner-general, is from one ethnicity and other generals from others. They have moved beyond the "national" dimension into a much wider, richer, and more powerful imperial domain.

 

So, Thrasymachus hit the mark when he said that Randland would have to be unified to stop the Seanchan advance. And it is doable much more quickly and easier if Randland hits the Seanchan as soon as possible. If Randland can field 300-400K professional troops under Mat (if he's willing to take the job) with 1K Aes Sedai, 1K Ashaman, and 3-4K Wise Ones and Windfinders, and Aludra's dragons, the Seanchan can be overwhelmed and their armies in Randland destroyed.

[Agitel]

One factor that hasn't been discussed but may be contributing to the very large armies is the chaos. With Dragonsworn raiding and a very extended drought followed by a fearsome winter, in addition to nations toppling, a lot of people are losing their livelihoods and land. This could be a massive refugee crisis, but as luck would have it everywhere's looking to build up armies, meaning that people desperate for food and money to feed themselves and their families are going to be flocking to join the ranks for a chance at steady pay and stability. People have few other options.

[Durinax]

One factor that hasn't been discussed but may be contributing to the very large armies is the chaos. With Dragonsworn raiding and a very extended drought followed by a fearsome winter, in addition to nations toppling, a lot of people are losing their livelihoods and land. This could be a massive refugee crisis, but as luck would have it everywhere's looking to build up armies, meaning that people desperate for food and money to feed themselves and their families are going to be flocking to join the ranks for a chance at steady pay and stability. People have few other options.

but like you said food would be hard to find even in those armies, due to the long winter, hot summer, and then extrene food spoilage

[Agitel]

One factor that hasn't been discussed but may be contributing to the very large armies is the chaos. With Dragonsworn raiding and a very extended drought followed by a fearsome winter, in addition to nations toppling, a lot of people are losing their livelihoods and land. This could be a massive refugee crisis, but as luck would have it everywhere's looking to build up armies, meaning that people desperate for food and money to feed themselves and their families are going to be flocking to join the ranks for a chance at steady pay and stability. People have few other options.

but like you said food would be hard to find even in those armies, due to the long winter, hot summer, and then extrene food spoilage

 

Some areas do seem like they were better off. But that aside, there are definitely food shortages, and I can't vouch for all of the logistics, but I suspect that whatever food there is quickly being bought up by the nations to give to their armies. I see the armies as almost having first dibs on what's available.

[cookiecrisp]

There are plenty of ridiculous forces in WoT like the Aiel, Borderlanders, etc, but I think the Seanchan are probably the most realistic army in the series. I really don't think that the Seanchan have a million native Seanchan soldiers or anything.

 

The Forerunners wouldn't have to be very large. They could easily crush the strongest westland kingdoms like Andor with 20,000, 30,000 men due to their superior commanders, soldiers, animals, and damane. All they need do is defeat 1 kingdom, recruit men, and snowball out of control. It'd be on the same scale Napoleon built his forces through conscription. All this would take is about 20-30 ships.

 

As for the Return, I doubt it brought over 1,000,000 people, as some are saying. The majority of the Seanchan forces are still recruits from the westlands. There's a possibility that there were simply incredible amounts of civillians, but that's uncertain. Even if there were a million people/animals/whatnot brought over, they would only need 1,000 ships. Xerxes brought over over a 500,000 men from ships alone from the piddy Persian Empire. The Seanchan Empire is so large that there are people of all skin colors and hues- similar to the Roman Empire, but on a much, much larger scale. The Seanchan would easily be able to bring over even a million men, even across the Ocean. The Seanchan Empire is also so geographically large that seasons would not matter in the building of the fleet.

 

As to why I doubt the Seanchan needed a million soldiers: Seanchan military expertise has been shown repeatedly throughout the books. They were about to kill Rand at Ebou Dar, when no one else has come close to defeating him. If it werent for him killing massive amounts of his own forces as well as Seanchan forces in a discouraging manuever, he'd either have had to make a hasty retreat or just die. In a similar battle with Rand's Ashaman at Dumai's Wells, incredible amounts of Shaido with Wise Ones were defeated by a relatively small army. Rand has never even been pushed back by other armies.

 

They've also been shown to be effective against Aiel, a feat the entire Westlands has been proven to be incapable of. Even with their best generals and Aes Sedai healing at Blood Snow, the insanely numerically superior westland force was not able to stop the Aiel.

I think that the military count would barely have to be over 150,000 native Seanchan total. With local recruits, that would easily explain the numbers were seeing.

 

Also, as for damane versus circles, circles have been proven to have limitations and weaknesses. One channeler controls the circle. Circles can be picked off, and reduce the awareness of a military force's "one power sight."

 

Avi's vision could have easily come true. The Seanchan had reclaimed their mainland by then, and were capable of brining millions more soldiers and thousands more male and female damane at that point. They clearly use male damane by the end of the LB, so they have that advantage. The Aiel and the Seanchan were at a standstill until the other nations joined in. It's possible that Channelers became less important after Andor fell. The "weapons" could have been more developed (the hiss sticks and whatnot) and the Seanchan army of millions and millions could've been armed with guns. That would've easily ended the war, despite any superiority in channelrs from the Ashaman and Aes Sedai. A circle is powerful, but to'Raken with snipers can take out circles.

[Vardar]

Just wanted to jump in here after page two. Arguing about the wood issue, Ogrier and wood singing. BAM, All the wood you need, and special wood. Also, the keepings would work on wood to to preserve it.

[Vardar]

And I wanted to jump back to page 2 again, Who says the Seanchan have more channelers? Don't the Aiel have a sept with 500+ Wise ones, most of who can channel. And there are 12 septs. That would make them the biggest force of channelers. And that's before they started letting men who can channel stay.

 

I don't understand myself how the Aiel would lose to the Seanchan. Well besides the Air attacks, which after a few times the Aiel would adapt. I mean they're an entire race of warriors right?

[Maleshub]

And I wanted to jump back to page 2 again, Who says the Seanchan have more channelers? Don't the Aiel have a sept with 500+ Wise ones, most of who can channel. And there are 12 septs. That would make them the biggest force of channelers. And that's before they started letting men who can channel stay.

 

I don't understand myself how the Aiel would lose to the Seanchan. Well besides the Air attacks, which after a few times the Aiel would adapt. I mean they're an entire race of warriors right?

 

Numbers and high military science. The Seanchan have a whole continent on the other side of the ocean with millions of people. And they have 3 kingdoms this side of the ocean in addition to the Return people. The Aiel held the Seanchan for 2-3 generations; but then it started going down hill.

[MasterAblar]

What caused Rand's channelling to go out of control? The strangeness in saidin or the flaw in Callandor?

[Barid Bel Medar]

What caused Rand's channelling to go out of control? The strangeness in saidin or the flaw in Callandor?

 

The flaw.

 

The strangeness made it hard for Asha'man (and Rand) to weave properly.

 

But the reason why Rand got out of control was wholly the flaw. Even if the BoW wasn't used, he still would have gone crazy like he did. He has done it before, in the SoT trying to revive the child.

[MasterAblar]

What caused Rand's channelling to go out of control? The strangeness in saidin or the flaw in Callandor?

 

The flaw.

 

The strangeness made it hard for Asha'man (and Rand) to weave properly.

 

But the reason why Rand got out of control was wholly the flaw. Even if the BoW wasn't used, he still would have gone crazy like he did. He has done it before, in the SoT trying to revive the child.

 

Thanks, that's what I thought as well.

[baalsmistress]

The thing that seems most unlikely to me in all this, is that an army that is mostly afoot, without travelling, could possibly retreat 300 miles in 6 days in good order.

 

The concept of an army marching 50 miles in a day is quite far fetched, without opposition, and on favourable terrain.

[Maleshub]

The thing that seems most unlikely to me in all this, is that an army that is mostly afoot, without travelling, could possibly retreat 300 miles in 6 days in good order.

 

The concept of an army marching 50 miles in a day is quite far fetched, without opposition, and on favourable terrain.

 

My impression is that the forces that were out in the Mountains and in the field (beyond 100 miles from Ebou Dar) were mostly obliterated. Only small bands would have retreated from among them. The army that Suroth ordered to march from a camp near Ebou Dar to the east to meet Rand is the one that managed to return back to Ebou Dar in some semblance of order. The army consisted of about 40K troops and 200 damane. Not all returned; but about half should have returned to Ebou Dar.

 

I don't remember Kadere's PoV in the battle. But I think his forces were forced to retreat before a full engagement with Rand's forces. I'll have to reread that part of the battle.

 

Just reread the Kadere PoV in PoD: He was hit before he could do anything; and he fled the field.

 

So, it seems that Rand's army was hitting Seanchan parties moving towards them; and didn't have time to finish off the retreating parties, allowing them to escape.

[MatthewSaint]

The wot wiki doesn't source it's claim that the Aryth Ocean is larger than the Morenal. The Aryth Ocean is literally the Atlantic. The Morenal is literally the Pacific. Perhaps the continents have continued to drift and the Aryth widened while the Morenal narrowed. I can't say. But I'd be interested in seeing a source for that claim. The world map with its scale in The World of Robert Jordan's The Wheel of Time would have us believe that the Aryth Ocean is nearly 9,000 miles across. That's just not realistic and I always just understood that to be a flaw in the map.

 

I think you're making some awfully large assumptions. I've taken the world map from the encyclopaedia, laid it on the globe. I think it's awfully strange to assume that Randland is Europe and the Aryth is the Atlantic... not even sure how that jump is made.

 

Anyways, one of the great things that comes out of laying the map on a globe is you see how massive Randland is. It's a big place, we're talking bigger than America and lower Canada big. Yes, this is scaled approximately correctly. So you can see Randland's 3000 miles across before you get to the Spine of the World. Not only that but we know that in general, Randland is a very prosperous land resource wise.

 

 

My personal belief is that Randland's what remains of North America, The AielWaste is the North Atlantic, Europe was shoved into the northern cap, Shara is Africa shoved north, Seanchan is a ragged mess that contains the Asian and Indian plates, and the Land of Madmen is what remains of South America or Antarctica.

 

But that's my own personal belief. Just makes sense to me.

 

But back to my point... Randland is huge and resource heavy. Shara is even more massive.

 

Seanchan is even bigger with an insane amount of coastline. That much coastline(and seemingly rocky) would require ships to hold an empire together. Look at the amount of coast in Shara, it must be a place sick with ports and ship building capacity. Put that massive land mass and naval capacity under one ruler? Punching out 5000 ships in 10 years would be reasonable!

 

I honestly like the numbers tossed around by RJ and am quite comfortable with them.

[Sharaman]

Didn't the Seanchan spend two generations planning the Return? I think Tuon's first PoV in WH indicates that.

That would mean maybe 40-50 years?

With all the resources of a continental empire, millions of normal slaves and damane to work with, the ship numbers don't seem too off-the-wall.

For one thing, the damane could speed up the seasoning of wood, as well as cutting it..

[Finnssss22]

Didn't the Seanchan spend two generations planning the Return? I think Tuon's first PoV in WH indicates that.

That would mean maybe 40-50 years?

With all the resources of a continental empire, millions of normal slaves and damane to work with, the ship numbers don't seem too off-the-wall.

For one thing, the damane could speed up the seasoning of wood, as well as cutting it..

 

 

Exactly.

We've seen the Seafolk running around with quite a few ships and they're only based out of their small island.

What kind of resources does one think the entire Seanchan Empire can put into play.

Do people even realise that the Seanchan continent is almost 3 times the size of Randland, not including Shara?

Even includig Shara, the Seanchan continent is still bigger.

 

[Agitel]

The wot wiki doesn't source it's claim that the Aryth Ocean is larger than the Morenal. The Aryth Ocean is literally the Atlantic. The Morenal is literally the Pacific. Perhaps the continents have continued to drift and the Aryth widened while the Morenal narrowed. I can't say. But I'd be interested in seeing a source for that claim. The world map with its scale in The World of Robert Jordan's The Wheel of Time would have us believe that the Aryth Ocean is nearly 9,000 miles across. That's just not realistic and I always just understood that to be a flaw in the map.

 

I think you're making some awfully large assumptions. I've taken the world map from the encyclopaedia, laid it on the globe. I think it's awfully strange to assume that Randland is Europe and the Aryth is the Atlantic... not even sure how that jump is made.

 

I didn't want to hijack the topic into my geography discussion, but for my arguments I suggest looking here:

 

http://www.dragonmou...age-of-legends/

 

And I've additional points made about Seanchan in this topic:

 

http://www.dragonmou...age__hl__+earth

 

There's a number of points of reference I'm using. I feel like I'm making far less assumptions.