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[Advanced] The Usual Suspects Mafia - GAME OVER - COPS WIN

Songstress

By Songstress
in DM Mafia Games

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Kivam Spam Master

Kivam

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Okay - going back I think this flip looks bad for Shad. Not great for Csarmi, either.

Agree on Shad.  Null on Csarmi ... he could have easily voted for me to save Lenlo if he were scum.

 

Also, the way Zander bounced his vote around just wiped out all the good feelings I had about him after my reread.  I don't buy that he missed the "plurality lynch" rule, after it was brought up in thread multiple times, including in a discussion with him and all-caps-and-bold right before the deadline.  If that's right, moving the vote to Lenlo instead of me looks like an awkward effort to avoid being on the competing lynch when a teammate went down.

Agreed on Zander. The plurality thing was weird and unnecessary. Also, he thought it'd be 11 votes by him placing his vote at like :00?

 

 

That is an excellent point - along with his willingness to CFD you that close to deadline without 11 active players around to post.

 

Zander, if you honestly thought this game required an 11 vote majority to lynch, none of what you did at the close of D1 makes any sense at all.

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seph Master

seph

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I'm really sorry for my absence everyone. No excuses, I'm going to buckle down here and read from page 100 to catch eod, and the iso Lenlo to see what info I can get from his flip.

Sili Quirrels Master

Sili Quirrels

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Actually, mish, there is a logic (to cut down on game bloat) that is good enough to start with, since it's not mathematically worse than any other random group of players. ......................and for us, it's actually mathematically better, since we'd be looking for 2 scum out of seven hydras - a 29% chance - instead of 5 scum in 19 players (a 26% chance). Of course, that assumes an even distribution, but if we're going to look at a random pool of 8, I'd rather it be one we're in rather than one we're not Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

 

Weird math.

 

5 in 19 would result in an average of 1.84 mafia in any random seven slots. For you it's less likely there are two mafia in the remaining 7 hydras.

Sili - you have the math wrong.  If probability says that there are 2 mafia in every 8 slots (5/20=1/4=2/8), and you have 8 hydra slots, then probability says there are 2 scum among the 8 hydras.  Being one of those 8, I know I'm town, which leaves only 7 slots left to have those 2/8 scum, meaning 2/7 remaining.  It's the same reason you said "5 in 19" - because you are eliminating yourself from the population you are looking at, and using the number of scum in the remaining population.

 

That doesn't really have much relevance, since everyone has moved on from LAH already and the likelyhood of an even distribution is actually quite low (you're looking at standard deviations, etc.), but with back to school coming up it feels right to correct you on that math anyway :wink:

I get what u r doing but unfortunately you arent accounting for bias. you should know at least one hydra is town therefore the likelyhood of 2 scumbin these particular eight slots is less for you.

 

 

Anyway gj on lenlo.

alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

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And wombats aren't rodents but that didn't stop them now did it :D

 

With that group, what could possibly stop them?  Right Anne?

I was skimming to catch up and this is the only post I want to respond to.

 

You suck.

Kivam Spam Master

Kivam

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And wombats aren't rodents but that didn't stop them now did it :D

 

With that group, what could possibly stop them?  Right Anne?

I was skimming to catch up and this is the only post I want to respond to.

 

You suck.

 

:tongue::wub::biggrin:

Sili Quirrels Master

Sili Quirrels

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That doesn't really have much relevance, since everyone has moved on from LAH already and the likelyhood of an even distribution is actually quite low (you're looking at standard deviations, etc.), but with back to school coming up it feels right to correct you on that math anyway :wink:

 

Maybe we agree. :huh:

Kivam Spam Master

Kivam

Posted
Posted

 

That doesn't really have much relevance, since everyone has moved on from LAH already and the likelyhood of an even distribution is actually quite low (you're looking at standard deviations, etc.), but with back to school coming up it feels right to correct you on that math anyway :wink:

 

Maybe we agree. :huh:

 

I thought I felt a disturbance in the force.  Now I know why.

 

BTW, do you know yet whether you're modding next or slipping to the one after me?  (Ragnarok just ended in the most awesome way possible over on JN [no, do not go look, since I want new untainted players when I run it here], so it's on my mind)

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