[Blue Ajah Harry Potter Week ] *Game Over - Town Wins* Lego Harry Potter Years 1-4 Mafia

[Turin Turambar]

Mish. I wish you wou have used the draught cause I got blocked.

 

Thorum. You must have a theory. I'll tell you mine if you tell me yours.

For Cloud. This is my first post of the day phase. I did say I was blocked.

 

And less Walls of Text. They are anti town if addressing more than one thing. more studs means more full upgrades. Which I believe will be best for town. I say that because as I just said I was given two methods of looking for mafia. I would expect that the other upgrades are also more valuable than the individual spells/potions.

[Daruya]

I didn't go back and check ALL the math but if I counted correctly (and assuming nobody spent any studs before the first stud count was posted), in the first few pages there were about 33 non-mod posts followed by a stud count of 420 that was posted by a mod.  That gives about 12.72 studs per non-mod post (if I counted correctly, but I counted rather hurriedly).

 

At this point, though, I'm not sure some weren't already spent before that was announced.

[bgrishinko]

Yeah, I noticed too the 33 posts too, but looking further in I noticed that mods rarely if ever added points on the same page as the point count. Which led me to believe that the page in which the point count happens on isn't counted till the next one. Would make it easier to keep track for mods I think if they could count them up by page rather than wherever they post. Prevents ninja posts not counting towards the total from being an issue as well. 

[_CLOUD]

 

 

 

Damn dude this aint a math class >.>

 

What's nice about math is it doesn't lie. Except statistics, you can make them say whatever you want.

 

 

Yeah we can always check your math etc. but I'm really not in the mood for that right now lol. It would be great if a brave individual would go over your math and discover any potential flaws. 

 

Statistics are evil though. It is known.

 

 

But seriously I don't think it's wise to start building cases on someone just because of the stud count which we don't know the mechanics about.

 

 

Well, I don't see it that way. I think it proves that Turin must have been lying and someone had to have bought a PJ potion during that time. There is no other way I can see. 

 

 

Even if your math was totally honest and correct. It doesn't mean that Turin was the one who bought the PJ potion. The Reporter post said that there were three people who visited Turin last Night: me, Mish and you. Mish and I have both used a Revelio on Turin and revealed this at the start of the Day phase, so that only leaves you who could have blocked Turin.

[Turin Turambar]

That last line by Dar is an important point. just because points were not announced doesn't mean that some weren't already spent.

Example:

time A:  500 studs available

 

player 1 purchases spell for 200 studs

game earns 500 studs

 

time B: 800 studs available. without knowing everything that happened in between two stud announcements there is no real way to determine who bought what.

 

I made the mistake myself of thinking it was too easy to figure out how to use the mechanics to out mafia. I think that Ithi would make it difficult to break her game in such a way.

[keyholder21]

Available Studs: 

 

 

960

[_CLOUD]

 

Mish. I wish you wou have used the draught cause I got blocked.

 

Thorum. You must have a theory. I'll tell you mine if you tell me yours.

For Cloud. This is my first post of the day phase. I did say I was blocked.

 

I must have forgotten about that post. This makes my town read on you even stronger because it means that you didn't just say that you got Roleblocked because BG got himself trapped after the Reporter's post.

[_CLOUD]

That last point from Dar about the stud count is indeed a good one.

[keyholder21]

Official Vote Count

BG - 5 (Turin, Nicana, Thorum, Cloud, Wombat)
Thorum - 4 (Mish, dice, Amarande, Basel)
Basel - 1 (Bridmorgan)

Turin - 1 (BG)

Not Voting - 4 (Hallia, Kassidy, Daruya, RTE)


With 15 alive it takes 8 to Lynch

Current possible End of Round Bonus = 1100 Studs 

Day 2 Deadline is 9pm BST Tuesday 6th August due to the Weekend.


http://www.timeandda...=Day 2 deadline 

[bgrishinko]

@Turin, this is why I went through all the trouble of trying to figure out how many points per post. To try and figure out how many points were added between the two counts. I'm not claiming that Turin must have bought the PJ potion, I'm just saying somebody must have.

 

875 total of points spent in my estimation

 

PJ potion, it happened, no dying it by the numbers else it would be impossible to spend in a 75 increment.

875-175= 700 remaining

 

After turin

700-600=100

 

Impossible to spend 100, but spent they were. Therefore, lying turin.

 

I will admit that my theory doesn't account for the 2-3 random extra points since the total was actually 878 total spent. But that in and of itself is an anomaly that just so happens occurs in this same time frame.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Yeah, I noticed too the 33 posts too, but looking further in I noticed that mods rarely if ever added points on the same page as the point count. Which led me to believe that the page in which the point count happens on isn't counted till the next one. Would make it easier to keep track for mods I think if they could count them up by page rather than wherever they post. Prevents ninja posts not counting towards the total from being an issue as well.

We've got a system, but thank you for your concern.

[bgrishinko]

In any case, it was enough for me to think Turin was lying. I kind of expected him to come out being vague about it, but he must have tried something last night I successfully Expelliarmused. He says that wouldn't work on him. That's what I used though.

[bgrishinko]

 

Yeah, I noticed too the 33 posts too, but looking further in I noticed that mods rarely if ever added points on the same page as the point count. Which led me to believe that the page in which the point count happens on isn't counted till the next one. Would make it easier to keep track for mods I think if they could count them up by page rather than wherever they post. Prevents ninja posts not counting towards the total from being an issue as well.

We've got a system, but thank you for your concern.

 

 

Yeah.... I'm just trying to guess the system.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Then I wish you all the best :)

[Daruya]

In any case, it was enough for me to think Turin was lying. I kind of expected him to come out being vague about it, but he must have tried something last night I successfully Expelliarmused. He says that wouldn't work on him. That's what I used though.

 

But doesn't Expelliarmus only work against charms?  It won't work against a person's natural ability.  If he was trying to view someone using an ability, a disarming charm won't negate that.  The only thing that would, I think, would be Immobulus.  So if you did use Expelliarmus while someone else used Immobulus, he'd be blocked from using his non-magical ability.  So if you actually did use Expelliarmus, did the other two visitors use Revelio, or did one use Revelio and another used Immobulus? 

 

So the big question is - are you telling a lie about what spell you used? And that is what we have to try to figure out.

[Turin Turambar]

@Turin, this is why I went through all the trouble of trying to figure out how many points per post. To try and figure out how many points were added between the two counts. I'm not claiming that Turin must have bought the PJ potion, I'm just saying somebody must have.

 

875 total of points spent in my estimation

 

PJ potion, it happened, no dying it by the numbers else it would be impossible to spend in a 75 increment.

875-175= 700 remaining

 

After turin

700-600=100

 

Impossible to spend 100, but spent they were. Therefore, lying turin.

 

I will admit that my theory doesn't account for the 2-3 random extra points since the total was actually 878 total spent. But that in and of itself is an anomaly that just so happens occurs in this same time frame.

Is your estimation. You don't know all the possible ways points are earned or in fact where and how they were spent. Trying to use the numbers is not likely going to work. I doubt that Ithi would not make it decipherable. You admit that your numbers don't exactly add up anyway and yet are trying to lynch the claimed cop over it.

 

BG needs to go...

[Turin Turambar]

 

In any case, it was enough for me to think Turin was lying. I kind of expected him to come out being vague about it, but he must have tried something last night I successfully Expelliarmused. He says that wouldn't work on him. That's what I used though.

 

But doesn't Expelliarmus only work against charms?  It won't work against a person's natural ability.  If he was trying to view someone using an ability, a disarming charm won't negate that.  The only thing that would, I think, would be Immobulus.  So if you did use Expelliarmus while someone else used Immobulus, he'd be blocked from using his non-magical ability.  So if you actually did use Expelliarmus, did the other two visitors use Revelio, or did one use Revelio and another used Immobulus? 

 

So the big question is - are you telling a lie about what spell you used? And that is what we have to try to figure out.

 

With the mafia actually believing my cop claim it would make sense for them to use both blocking methods to make sure that I was blocked. While that casts some suspicion on Mish and Cloud it also would pretty much confirm that BG is in fact mafia. Hence lynch BG and sort out anything else afterward.

[bgrishinko]

I'm telling you that looking into it, that's why I think you are lying. It is an estimate, but I put a lot of time into trying to figure it out first during the night because it doesn't add up. If my numbers are wrong, then, I've errored on having too many studs because I over estimated. Which means it would still be impossible to have 900 points spent. That means that either you or Mish is lying about the purchase still.

 

I used Expelliarmus and it appears I successfully blocked Turin despite Turin claiming it shouldn't have worked. That's the truth.

[Thorum]

Glad to see you're back, Turin. How were you blocked?

 

I'll check the maths tomorrrow. That's my job, after all...

Even if true, what you did sounds more mafia than town to me.

[Thorum]

Also Turin, who are you and what can you do? With you rlast few posts and your absence, it got very confusing...

[Daruya]

I'm telling you that looking into it, that's why I think you are lying. It is an estimate, but I put a lot of time into trying to figure it out first during the night because it doesn't add up. If my numbers are wrong, then, I've errored on having too many studs because I over estimated. Which means it would still be impossible to have 900 points spent. That means that either you or Mish is lying about the purchase still.

 

I used Expelliarmus and it appears I successfully blocked Turin despite Turin claiming it shouldn't have worked. That's the truth.

 

Unless either Mish or Cloud used Immobulus.  Again, Expelliarmus doesn't work on non-magical stuff.

 

While it is true that Turin could have used PJ potion, and it is true that Mish or Cloud could be lying about their NA, I'm also pretty suspicous that you are holding on so tightly to "Turin must be lying because I used Expelliarmus."

 

To me, everyone is suspect.  Turin claimed a character and role.  Character was confirmed by Revelio x 2 (?).  However, he could have used PJ potion.

 

Mish and Cloud claimed to have used Revelio on Turin and confirmed his character.  I don't remember who posted first but it is possible that the 2nd person posting that reveal was just tagging onto the original and that they actually used Immobulus.  So it could also be that Turin is telling the truth but that either Mish or Cloud isn't (with a larger FoS on the 2nd revealer).

 

 

[Turin Turambar]

The entire point is that without solid data about the entire system your number crunching is not going to give you a solid answer. Garbage data in garbage info out.

 

I know who and what I am. If you think me mafia then you are wrong. nice to go down in a blaze of glory for you tho.

 

Question: of the two that have claimed to use Revelio on me which do you think is more likely lying?

[Thorum]

Mods, if Turin targeted himself, would Rita have known?

[_CLOUD]

Mish is more likely lying because she was the second one to say that she used a Revelio, but I believe her.

 

I don't think that the items are strong enough to mess with PR's. I think they are only meant to counter each other. 

 

BG needs to go.

[_CLOUD]

Mods, if Turin targeted himself, would Rita have known?

 

Why the eff would Turin target himself??