The Math of Mafia

[Basel Gill]

As for this thread, I wonder how the roles are assigned. Do you use some sort of "lottery" to give each person their roles, or is it a person who does it? People are probably bad lottery machines. There was this little experiment we did while I was in school that put us to the test to see how random we could be if we tried, and I think we failed, but that was a little different from this situation.

 

You don't need to be your own lottery machine when assigning the roles. I think most mods use random.org for it, and for anything else random they have to do. If you have 12 players, you can set it to give you the numbers 1 through 12 in a random order, and then use that order to determine who has what role.

[Turin Turambar]

I would suggest you read along with a game or two write down questions about things you don't understand. Then go ahead and sign up for a BASIC game. go ahead and PM the game MOD your initial questions and additional questions that come up. You can also ask questions of the other players in the game thread but some will think that you are asking as part of your game play.

[Blackhoof]

That's because you're asking a different question. You're asking what am I going to get in this specific toss? (regardless of any previous tosses). And you're right, that would be 50/50 regardless of it being your first toss or your 100th toss.

 

But I'm talking about conditional odds. I'm asking what are the odds of my 3rd toss being heads, if I got heads in my first and second toss. And that, my friend, is NOT 50/50 anymore. Because you have to calculate the odds of you getting Heads three times in a row.

 

 

 

Nyn

 

Your right, this is circular and repetitive.

[Sedai]

I hate to beat a dead horse. Not really I find sometimes points need to be continually hammered to make them apparent, but for decorum sake, I hate beating a dead horse.

 

The way I run games is based on the number the player signs up. So the first person gets ran through random.org and gets the first number ect. So the point everyone is making is if player A is always the first player, then it is most likely that they are going to be continually changed about but if they keep switching the number they sign up at it is very possible to continue being plain vanilla, cop, scum etc.

 

The only way you can use the continuing diminishing probability, is if the variables all remain constant. Like of you flip a coin on a pleasant day all the variables are the same. So in a perfect world, yes it's most likely if a person has been scum 3 games in a row it is less then 1/3 or 1/4 as likely as them being so again, but accounting for the changing variables you have to view it as an independent event instead of an event in a sequence.

[Alanna]

Here's what I think. If you've got a viable lynch based on someone's scummy behavior, it would be silly to lynch someone else who doesn't seem suspicious yet, just because of the math. However, in a situation where you have 2 people just as likely as the other to be scum, then using the math to pick who to lynch is a fine option.

[Myndrunner]

A player leaves on an eastbound train at 75 miles per hour. Another player leaves on a westbound train traveling at 100 miles per hour. Who is mafia?

[Songstress]

Vote Mynd.

[Kathleen]

A player leaves on an eastbound train at 75 miles per hour. Another player leaves on a westbound train traveling at 100 miles per hour. Who is mafia?

 

The guy who changed the tracks so they collide?

[Turin Turambar]

A player leaves on an eastbound train at 75 miles per hour. Another player leaves on a westbound train traveling at 100 miles per hour. Who is mafia?

 

BG obviously.

[Lenlo]

Duh. Vote Player Problem solved.

[Nolder]

Vote Mynd.

THE BEST SOLUTION

[WWWwombat]

A player leaves on an eastbound train at 75 miles per hour. Another player leaves on a westbound train traveling at 100 miles per hour. Who is mafia?

 

Einstein.

[Nolder]

A player leaves on an eastbound train at 75 miles per hour. Another player leaves on a westbound train traveling at 100 miles per hour. Who is mafia?

 

Einstein.

Ruh Roh

[Basel Gill]

No, no, Einstein is only mafia if the train he is on is going 88 mph.

[Sedai]

No, no, Einstein is only mafia if the train he is on is going 88 mph.

 

But if the competing train is running in an excess of 37.64 mph then he is obviously the doc wifoming the mafia with an eye patch.

[Kathleen]

*pounces Jack* Welcome back! So glad to see you around again!

[Sedai]

It's good to be back Kath. How've you been?

[Kathleen]

Good good. Ever busy, but mostly same old same. Haven't played mafia much but ran a few games. Where did you run off to?

 

*wishes she hadn't said her piece on topic so she could shove it in here to make this less off topic*

[Sedai]

I've been everywhere from Florida, Indiana, Louisiana and everywhere imbetween. Working mostly with my dad. Just kind of living. I know that's cliche. >.<

[LilyElizabeth]

Too bad you haven't gotten to Arizona. That would be epic.

[Sedai]

So much so there wouldn't be words to describe it. :) farthest I've been west though is Omaha Nebraska