There Goes the Neighborhood (Game Thread) - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[Darthe]

No Ishy, the problem was Oklahoma was in the complete opposite direction! How the heck do you get turned around like that on a country road with only ONE direction!?!

*Grumps in the back seat*

Cousins...

 

Haha you have aparently never had three glasses of "trust me" and then set off to reroute the trip of the song Wagon Wheel

 

 

Fun times =) Yay Ishy and Lenlo in another game together

[peacesells]

I saw the drunk. Where was the mafia? :-)

[Darthe]

Oh and I have been watching this and Little Miss and Arez both stick out to me. Perhaps it is just that I don't know her but little miss seems a bit overplayed, however Arez is my bigger candidate at the moment. It's a meta, but those of you who have played with him should be able and confirm as well as I that he is NEVER anything close to this quiet, not even when he has a power role. ).) Got him lynched as doc in two other games.. But seriously, that is beyond odd to me. If I am missing a post where he proclaimed an LoA let me know but until then

 

unvote, vote Arez

[dapianoplay3r]

you are right. I overlooked him

I too am interested to see where he has gone too

[Blackhoof]

NIGHT IS OVER

 

 

My fellow citizens. It is with great sadness that I annonce that in the night we lost a fellow citizen.

 

Mynd - Vanilla Townie is dead.

 

IT IS NOW DAY 2.

 

 

my 'mind'.... is dead (this game, since i keep getting things wrong)

 

 

You've never participated in Drunk MafiaTM before...deal with the weekend play, this is how it plays out. As far as me knowing how Mynd's play would turn out, well, who wouldn't? His theory was complete B.S., he just got lucky. And I wasn't the only one who said so. Am I happy that EP flipped scum? Damn right I am, but just because he did doesn't mean that Mynd's theory was genius. It was a fluke and you know it.

 

im sorry, but you clearly have no idea what is going on

 

vote ishy

 

I saw the drunk. Where was the mafia? :-)

 

hehehe

[John E. Kelley]

NIGHT IS OVER

 

 

My fellow citizens. It is with great sadness that I annonce that in the night we lost a fellow citizen.

 

Mynd - Vanilla Townie is dead.

 

IT IS NOW DAY 2.

 

 

my 'mind'.... is dead (this game, since i keep getting things wrong)

 

You've never participated in Drunk MafiaTM before...deal with the weekend play, this is how it plays out. As far as me knowing how Mynd's play would turn out, well, who wouldn't? His theory was complete B.S., he just got lucky. And I wasn't the only one who said so. Am I happy that EP flipped scum? Damn right I am, but just because he did doesn't mean that Mynd's theory was genius. It was a fluke and you know it.

 

im sorry, but you clearly have no idea what is going on

 

vote ishy

 

I saw the drunk. Where was the mafia? :-)

 

hehehe

 

So why don't you enlighten me then? What's really going on o all-seeing One?

[Blackhoof]

Sorry if I sounded arrogant, but you are arguing vehemently against mynds theory, AFTER his death. You have also acted like Nae was a supporter of the theory, when she never was.

 

[John E. Kelley]

I'm arguing against Mynd's theory because it was complete bullshit. He got lucky, yes, but it was luck, nothing else. He could have thrown darts at names and come up with the same result.

 

And Nae? Never heard of her, who is she?

[Blackhoof]

*sigh*

[Arez Al'Loke]

Haha xD A meta read on me already?! Nah, but srsly Darthe ^^ If you really believed this theory, you could have checked my activity and noticed that I haven't been doing anything on DM for about 2 days.. I was rather busy.

But I'm not actually going to claim you're scummy for voting me.. you had good reasons.. But I hope I made it a bit more clear now that I am not mafia =P

[Darthe]

That is fair, you have been less active =p It doesn't make you less likely to be scum but it does make your behavior more sensible.

[keyholder21]

Sorry ya'll - have been busy this weekend and now have Mother's Day stuff with in laws. I'll get back to you later this evening on my thoughts :).

[Niniel]

I have done that re-read that I talked about today. Was too sick yesterday. People I would like to hear more from are Tress, Player, Kaylee and Arez. Arez just said he hasn´t been here much but what do you think about the game?

 

Ok, I've compiled my cross check list like I stated yesterday I would do.

 

Vote Count:

 

Nolder (13) - Mynd, Darthe, BG, songstress, Razen, Kaylee, kae, Nyn, Little Miss, Lenlo, Key, Ironeyes, Piano

 

On my read through..of the players who voted Nolder these 3 seemed to defend EP specifically by all saying he seemed to have a calm reaction to Mynd's proposal and vote on him.

 

Little Miss

 

Ail Heart

 

Darthe

 

The following didn't agree with Mynd's theory but didn't vote for Nolder. Their intentions should be considered still.

 

Piano

 

Key

 

Razen

 

Kae somewhat...Mynd being Mynd but thought theory was crap

 

Looks like we have 7 that meet the criteria. I personally think the first 3 are the strongest possibilities.

 

I think Mynd being Nk'd gives even more credence to his theories about scum on the latter Nolder train or defending EP. I think the defending EP group is more telling though so I am going to start off by VOTING LITTLE MISS. As she is the first on the list I made. But I'd be happy to look at Ail Heart or Darthe too.

 

This post is interesting. Before I read it I was about to vote Darthe so I think I will go through with it. The reasons are those you are stating. Darthe twice said that Mynd´s theory was interesting but we should hold on voting poor EP. He also did the "if I survive" post during the night. Why would he think that he would be nk´d? To me it´s a "look at me I´m town" post.

 

Vote Darthe.

 

Ishy - explain why you voted Kae all yesterday.

[bgrishinko]

Sorry ya'll - have been busy this weekend and now have Mother's Day stuff with in laws. I'll get back to you later this evening on my thoughts :).

 

This x 2. Also my wife is taking her citizenship test on Tues. Which has made things even more busy. I'll should be back to full capacity by Wed and I'll catch up then.

[Basel Gill]

Best of luck to her, BG.

[Arez Al'Loke]

Oh and I have been watching this and Little Miss and Arez both stick out to me. Perhaps it is just that I don't know her but little miss seems a bit overplayed, however Arez is my bigger candidate at the moment. It's a meta, but those of you who have played with him should be able and confirm as well as I that he is NEVER anything close to this quiet, not even when he has a power role. ).) Got him lynched as doc in two other games.. But seriously, that is beyond odd to me. If I am missing a post where he proclaimed an LoA let me know but until then

 

unvote, vote Arez

 

I don't really think your scum radar is working that well Darthe =P

[Darthe]

Oh and I have been watching this and Little Miss and Arez both stick out to me. Perhaps it is just that I don't know her but little miss seems a bit overplayed, however Arez is my bigger candidate at the moment. It's a meta, but those of you who have played with him should be able and confirm as well as I that he is NEVER anything close to this quiet, not even when he has a power role. ).) Got him lynched as doc in two other games.. But seriously, that is beyond odd to me. If I am missing a post where he proclaimed an LoA let me know but until then

 

unvote, vote Arez

 

I don't really think your scum radar is working that well Darthe =P

 

I would like to disagree with you but it never has worked well =p Look at Revenge of the Sith haha, no clue on Ishy. Maybe I should start doubting people that I trust most ).)

 

Also, Tina the math was simply not there and that was the reasoning behind Mynd's vote. Yes it worked and so I have shut up about it since, but the logic was flawed. Disagreeing with that process does not make me scummy. If you choose to use that logic then in this game I am almost certainly not Scum because I was in the Ferngully match and in Hunters vs. Shifters. The truth is that I have the same odds here, as do we all.

[Niniel]

I think that you misunderstood why I think you are scummy. I think you are scummy because you defended EP and also did the "if I die" post to let us know how innocent you are.

 

Take a look at your posts. It doesn´t look like you think Mynd´s reasons are bad in itselves. It looks like you think it´s right although Mynd missed that there are two other games going on where you don´t know EP´s alignment. Why bring that up if you don´t believe in Mynd´s theory? If everyone have the same odds then it doesn´t matter how many games they play or how many times they are scum/town.

 

To me it looks like you are trying to agree with Mynd at the same time as you are defending EP.

 

I have an idea that I've been chewing on for the last few games, and this seems like the perfect one to try it. Screw casing and metagaming on day one, let's use raw numbers to figure out who to lynch on Day 1.

 

Ok, here is the roster:

 

1. Ishy

2. Nolder

3. Basel

4. Arez

5. Razen

6. BG

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano

12. Darthe

13. Sakaea

14. Pale

15. Kaylee

16. Christine

17. Levity

18. peace

19. Nynaeve

20. Tina

21. Key

22. EP

23. Little Miss

24. Mynd

 

24 player game. At worst, a 1/3 ratio is typically used for proper balance of non-town to town players. In a 24 player game like this, that would mean that there could be as many as 8 non-town players. These will of course include the mafia team (or teams) but could also include third party players such as solo-win, mercenaries, and symps. This also means we could have as good as a 1/3 chance of lynching a scummie on Day 1. Follow me so far? *nod your head*

 

Now, each of us that is town are 100% sure of one player who is town....that being ourselves. So, remove your own name from your list of players. That leaves 23 other players.

 

We don't need to figure out the entire mafia team today, just set the groundwork for hunting them later on. Trains built upon townie players will grow faster than those on mafia players, especially the closer we get to deadline. When we choose one or two players to build a train on, mafia will likely be reluctant to vote until about 24 hours before deadline, with the typical "Well, we don't want it to go random" or "well, for the sake of majority, I'll vote townieman..." Make sense?

 

So here is where it gets tricky, in a true Mat Cauthon tossing-the-dice sort of way. When playing blackjack in Vegas, I tried counting cards but I sucked at it. I then realized that I didn't have to count them so long as I followed what was likely going to happen. After playing several hands, I realized that lightening rarely struck twice. So, after the dealer got blackjack, I would double my bet on the following hand. When I would get blackjack, I would bet low on the following hand. Confusing you yet? Probably.

 

What I am trying to illustrate is that players who have been mafia in past games are less likely to be mafia again. Now, Verbal would be the first to swoop in and say "THATS NOT TRUE" and he would be right in raw numbers. If you flip a coin 50 times, the odds of it flipping heads on the 31st time are the same as the 1st. Therefore, the odds of flipping 50 heads is 1/2. The LIKELYHOOD is not that simple since it would only take one tails to ruin the entire gambit. Still with me? Hopefully this will make sense now.

 

Ask yourself this. When was the last time you were mafia in a previous game? How many times have you been back to back mafia? I'm sure its happened to some of us and the odds of one being mafia have nothing to do with previous games. The LIKELYHOOD however is different. Sure, many will argue semantics, but keep in mind we don't need to be precise but we need to go with who is MOST LIKELY mafia on Day 1. The same thing goes for newbies. Mods typically don't fill all of the mafia slots with newbie players even if random.org dictates it, but mods will likely have at least one on their team in the interest of balance.

 

I know what you all are thinking. STOP GAMING THE MOD! But isn't that what we do anyway? Isn't the whole point of scum-hunting is figuring out who is scum and who is town by any means necessary?

 

So, this is what I propose. We sort the list of players into groups. Who has been mafia in their last game and who hasn't. Or who is a newbie and who is a veteran. Or even whose name begins with A and whose does not. (Sound familiar?) It really doesn't matter how we sort it just so that we do sort them and then choose to lynch a player in the group that MOST LIKELY has mafia in it. I've played games with just about everyone on the list and some have been mafia and some have not.

 

Since I have yet to play a game where Eternal Phoenix has been scum......he fits my criteria for LIKELY being mafia in this game.

 

Therefore...... Eternal Phoenix

 

(The above is not a PR, but something I have actually been thinking about for several games.)

 

I agree with this but think you may have the wrong game since he is in two others that he is still alive in. Also, I feel like I just went through MAFIA 101 with Mynd. Statistically speaking though, He has a 33% chance of being non-town, and in three games that he has those odds that is equivalent to a .11 chance of being scum in any particular game. I like where your head is Mynd (because you are thinking the way i do =p) but lets not hastily form this train. The poor boy is starting to look a lot like Blackhoof ;)

 

Also, lets see who jumps on this since yours was so obvious.

This is all true except for one thing. He is still alive in half of the games which gives him a third of that probability making him less likely to be mafia than he would be. I am up for the vote if that is how we wanna start D1 but the poor boy is already becoming blackhoof.

Huh. Well. I told Nolder that I'd reveal if I was wrong, and I'll keep that promise. I'd rather wait till day though unless anyone has any objections?

 

Save it for the day please. Also, sorry Nol that was suspicious though. Going for BH if I make it through the night, he has been the next scummiest so far. Unless things drastically change in the night at least.

[Darthe]

All are honest statements, EP has been day1 to day 3 in almost every game I played with him so far (I should know, he was gunning for me in two of them) because of his erraticism. Regardless of if you agree with my statements or not, those are not questionable. Simply how I see it from my time playing with him. The more telling issue for yourself, and in hindsight I will admit a bit of poor phrasing on my part, is the other line about dying tonight. That is definitely not what I intended you to get from my words, but it was said nonetheless. If you really want to lynch me for believing that I may die the night before then do so, but that is beyond weak.

[Sakaea]

Vote Hoof for his overreaction yesterday. It still does not sit right.

[Nynaeve]

Also, Tina the math was simply not there and that was the reasoning behind Mynd's vote. Yes it worked and so I have shut up about it since, but the logic was flawed. Disagreeing with that process does not make me scummy. If you choose to use that logic then in this game I am almost certainly not Scum because I was in the Ferngully match and in Hunters vs. Shifters. The truth is that I have the same odds here, as do we all.

 

I find the bolded completely contradictory to what you said on day 1 when Mynd was around (aka what has been quoted above by Tina). You said you agreed with the theory. You said that you were having the same line of thought as Mynd's. Your issue with Mynd's vote on EP was clearly not because you thought his theory was bogus... but rather that in your opinion, EP's roles in current games made him incompatible to the theory. As well as thinking that he doesn't deserve to become the new Blackhoof.

 

And yet NOW you say that the math is simply not there. And that disagreeing with it doesn't mean you're scummy. I agree, it doesn't. But you didn't disagree with the theory on day 1 and now you suddenly do? I'm not liking the way you seem to be switching stances...

 

And what also bothers me is your following comment to Tina. If you think the math is flawed and the theory is bogus then you don't get to use it to portray yourself as likely town. Can't have it both ways.

 

 

Vote Darthe

 

 

 

 

Nyn

[Nynaeve]

And FYI, I did see your above reply to Tina. I just don't see anything in it that explains your erratic behavior.

 

 

 

Nyn

[peacesells]

UNVOTE VOTE DARTH for reasons posted in my first post for this day. Defending EP.

[Ironeyes]

Ok, all the interesting stuff that happened while I was gone:

Drunken Mafia and Nae complaining about it…

Darthe and Player go after Arez for inactivity…

Ishy and Blackhoof arguing about Mynd’s crazy theory AGAIN…

Arez comes back and says RL got in the way of DM (imagine that!)…

Key vanishes for the weekend like I did and for the same reason…

Tina votes Darthe for seemingly legitamate reasoning…

Tina posts a wall of text to support her vote…

Kae pops in for a vote on Hoof with minimal explanation…

Nyn votes Darthe for contradicting himself…

And Peacesells votes Darthe for defending EP from Mynd’s (essentially) random vote.

 

Based on this, I’m thinking that the scum are railroading Darthe. There have been a lot of votes for him for weak reasons, all happening just after TinaHel voted him with a decent explanation. I think they just jumped on.

 

So… I’m going to vote Peacesells for now.

[Ironeyes]

...also did the "if I die" post...

Sing with me!

 

"If I die young..."