What's In the Future For Graendal

[Cut Strand]

She assumed Rand was trying some fancy strategy in a game of stones, so she was prepared to play. Instead Rand burned down the house she thought they were going to play in.

 

Graendal is dead.

 

Her reappearance is less believable than all the superhero resurrections.

[Kaznen]

I agree that she didn't know Rand was playing a different game then her, I just think that much balefire would have had sent her back further then the time it took Lord dumb*** to walk down to the palace, meet and chat with her, then come back.

[Byzantine279]

Actually Kaznen there is a calculation that shows even the strongest balefire from the CK would only burn back a couple days at most. (much more and the entire pattern will blow up).

 

I think she was treating him far to much like LTT to think he would ever dare do that sort of thing, the forsaken wouldn't have after all.

[CTKShadow]

It's certainly possible that Graendal survived the attack. However, I don't consider it likely.

 

I don't consider it likely just because there are too many things that need to fall into place. All of these points, individually, are possible or even likely, say 50% to 75% likely, but the chances that they are all true become rather slim.

 

We need to assume that Graendal asked Rash how he got there, and inferred from this information that Rand was planning to attack immediately on Rash's return.

We need to assume that she realized that Rash's purpose was in the assault (compulsion test). Needless to say, if she did then she knows balefire was on the menu, if she didn't already.

We need to assume that EITHER she had a spare female channeler on hand to link with OR that she had a way to cause her weaves to dissolve upon a trigger (either balefire or being delved)(which we haven't seen before)

We need to assume that EITHER she predicted Rand would nuke the whole palace OR that when Rand attacked her female dupe would be able to be convincingly threatening. The first has been discussed, but if she didn't then we need to assume that her female would be able to "try" to flee convincingly, and wield enough of the power that it wouldn't be obvious that she's weaker than Graendal. Of the two, the first seems more likely, and it's a bit of a stretch.

 

I say 25% chance Graendal lived, 75% chance she died. I consider Aran'gar to be the more interesting case, I would say there is a 25% she died in the attack.

 

Note that the "she lived" theory does not hinge on her predicting the scope of Rand's attack. However, note that if she did not, she must have been confident in her dupe's ability to be convincing when in a face-to-face confrontation with Rand, including the fact that he is expecting her to be slippery.

[rshipers]

It's really not all that big a stretch for Graendal to figure out he meant to balefire the whole palace if she realized that Ramshalon was for proof of her death. If she knows he's the proof of her death, then why would Rand go into the palace to hunt specifically for her? If he is using balefire within sight of her and saw it hit her why would he need proof that she died? The only reason he would need proof that she is dead is if he was planning to balefire her without seeing her get hit with it which means the whole palace is going to get it. (I hope that makes sense )

 

I think it's possible she is alive. It seems pointless to introduce her bringing Rand emotional pain and then nothing ever comes of it. It also could just be that in this and other stories I'm never completely convinced unless we get to see the body. Of course, in this series that can be worked around too. :)

[Kaznen]

She may think he sent Ramshalon to verify she was there. And she, like the rest of the forsaken except may be Moggy, don't consider the modern AS's skills to all that great. She didn't know one could delve and detect compulsion.

[Brown Ajah]

I had not considered the theory that Graendal had linked in order to perform the compulsion. Very interesting. Yet still, I feel that Graendal is well and truly dead. I would be incredibly surprised if she lives, especially given that the series is headed towards closure in two more books.

[Alternate34]

It certainly is possible that Graendal lived, but I don't think it is true.

 

First, while Graendal is a master of psychology, her monitoring of Rand is still mostly via proxy. That would limit her ability to know how far Rand has gone off the deep end. It is not just the use of balefire on such a large scale that is unpredictable, it is also the slaughter of several innocents, and the use of Rammy as compulsion fodder that are all counter to Rand's personality. It is a whole bunch of evil wrapped up in a tight package.

 

Additionally, while she is one to run when trouble presents itself, she also has some ambition and desire to cow Rand/LTT. Why would she run when presented with Rammy? What danger would she perceive? She may have been able to know that Rand would have done some wacky shit, but she would assume that she could escape it. A raid with a travelling army? No problem, she is gone. Rain fire and lightning down on the palace? Again, if she is down below she could escape at the first sign of trouble and be safe.

 

The problem I have with the theory that Graendal is alive is that the assumptions for it are that she is completely invincible. She is such a master of psychology that she could out predict Moridin and every other Forsaken. She would be Nae'blis no question. But she does have weaknesses. She likes to play the game of proxies. Rand's plan preys upon this weakness. He sends a proxy and then she thinks, "Aha, I have Rand where I want him. He has come to the conclusion that he can only draw me out by playing my game. But he still doesn't realize how good at the game I am."

[RedRaider]

I didn't read the entire thread, so forgive me if this has been said already.

 

We don't even know for sure that it was Graendal in the house. We do know that the compulsion used on Rammy was not as complex as that used on the boy. Rand could have nuked a member of the black ajah or possibly another member of the forsaken clan who knew of compulsion. I cant imagine that Graendal would be blasted away without so much as small fight just to prove that Rand has become a heartless mass murderer. We already knew that.

 

We were only going on LT's impression of Graendal and his AOL recolection of her behavior. He could have simply been wrong.

[Val Mickey]

Considering the myth of Grendel has two fights (Beowulf vs. Grendel and vs. Grendel's monster child) I'd like to see another fight with Graendal. That's impossible, as she's dead as a doornail. More, actually.

[yoniy0]

Boss, didn't you already post this theory before the boards were migrated? I have the most persistent deja vous :)

[Manetheren Lord]

In addition it serves a point about the detrimental effects Rand's mental state, much like the failures with Arad Domon, Tuon and the Borderlanders.

 

This is what I thought after reading the TGS prologue last night, it would make sense as Moridin told Graendel not to kill al'Thor. However he did want her to mess with him and cause him pain and she would be rewarded. Through her supposed death she does exactly that. Also she wouldn't want to confront Rand inside her palace at all. What purpose would it serve if she cannot kill him nor wound him, as Moridin refused to rescue Semirhage because she wounded Rand? She knows that he would tear down the palace to find her, so why wouldn't he just balefire it from the start?

[jamesgun]

Why would grendal think Rand would use balefire on her. Wasnt it agreed that balefire wouldnt be used anymore. No one knew the weave unless performed with a terangrel. So gerendal wouldnt have feared balefire from Rand. She was there for cocky. To confident in her own abilities and it cost her. She got smoked out of the pattern all together. and due to her untimely demise her compulsoins were also burned out of the pattern. Just my theory but i think shes toast.

[Jemlin]

It certainly is possible that Graendal lived, but I don't think it is true.

 

First, while Graendal is a master of psychology, her monitoring of Rand is still mostly via proxy. That would limit her ability to know how far Rand has gone off the deep end. It is not just the use of balefire on such a large scale that is unpredictable, it is also the slaughter of several innocents, and the use of Rammy as compulsion fodder that are all counter to Rand's personality. It is a whole bunch of evil wrapped up in a tight package.

 

Additionally, while she is one to run when trouble presents itself, she also has some ambition and desire to cow Rand/LTT. Why would she run when presented with Rammy? What danger would she perceive? She may have been able to know that Rand would have done some wacky shit, but she would assume that she could escape it. A raid with a travelling army? No problem, she is gone. Rain fire and lightning down on the palace? Again, if she is down below she could escape at the first sign of trouble and be safe.

 

The problem I have with the theory that Graendal is alive is that the assumptions for it are that she is completely invincible. She is such a master of psychology that she could out predict Moridin and every other Forsaken. She would be Nae'blis no question. But she does have weaknesses. She likes to play the game of proxies. Rand's plan preys upon this weakness. He sends a proxy and then she thinks, "Aha, I have Rand where I want him. He has come to the conclusion that he can only draw me out by playing my game. But he still doesn't realize how good at the game I am."

 

Aye, and the assumption that Graendal is the master of psychological understanding doesn't hold water. I have a M.A. in psychology and anthropology, and I can assure everyone here that not only is psychology not able to fully predict actions of individuals (crowds maybe to a point) in complex situations, but when it comes to trying to cross-culturally understand people it is even more difficult. Graendal is from an age that is over three thousand years in the history, and the 'psychology" she would know wouldn't hold the same basis in Rand's time.

 

It would be like taking Aristotle and implanting him in Modern America and expecting him to be able to accurately predict modern man. It would take him years, and even though Graendal has had time to adjust her understandings, they are still much more prone to failure than she would like to admit.

 

Therefore, I want to agree that there was no way she could have predicted Rand's actions.

[darth_hel]

It certainly is possible that Graendal lived, but I don't think it is true.

 

First, while Graendal is a master of psychology, her monitoring of Rand is still mostly via proxy. That would limit her ability to know how far Rand has gone off the deep end. It is not just the use of balefire on such a large scale that is unpredictable, it is also the slaughter of several innocents, and the use of Rammy as compulsion fodder that are all counter to Rand's personality. It is a whole bunch of evil wrapped up in a tight package.

 

Additionally, while she is one to run when trouble presents itself, she also has some ambition and desire to cow Rand/LTT. Why would she run when presented with Rammy? What danger would she perceive? She may have been able to know that Rand would have done some wacky shit, but she would assume that she could escape it. A raid with a travelling army? No problem, she is gone. Rain fire and lightning down on the palace? Again, if she is down below she could escape at the first sign of trouble and be safe.

 

The problem I have with the theory that Graendal is alive is that the assumptions for it are that she is completely invincible. She is such a master of psychology that she could out predict Moridin and every other Forsaken. She would be Nae'blis no question. But she does have weaknesses. She likes to play the game of proxies. Rand's plan preys upon this weakness. He sends a proxy and then she thinks, "Aha, I have Rand where I want him. He has come to the conclusion that he can only draw me out by playing my game. But he still doesn't realize how good at the game I am."

 

Aye, and the assumption that Graendal is the master of psychological understanding doesn't hold water. I have a M.A. in psychology and anthropology, and I can assure everyone here that not only is psychology not able to fully predict actions of individuals (crowds maybe to a point) in complex situations, but when it comes to trying to cross-culturally understand people it is even more difficult. Graendal is from an age that is over three thousand years in the history, and the 'psychology" she would know wouldn't hold the same basis in Rand's time.

 

It would be like taking Aristotle and implanting him in Modern America and expecting him to be able to accurately predict modern man. It would take him years, and even though Graendal has had time to adjust her understandings, they are still much more prone to failure than she would like to admit.

 

Therefore, I want to agree that there was no way she could have predicted Rand's actions.

 

Graendal is familiar enough with current society to fake letters from a king to one of his most trusted generals, Rahvin was able to fit in perfectly in Caemlyn, Sammael did well in Illian, Semirhage was a trusted advisor to an heir to the Seanchan throne. Times have changed some since the bore was sealed but the forsaken have shown themselves to be pretty good at absorbing cultures if nothing else. Also, while I agree that maybe determining specifically what Rand would do might be hard, her determining what he might be capable of would be within the realm of possibility.This holds true especially for Graendal who has been stated to run at the first sign of any trouble at all, she would constantly be looking out for anything and probably be more prone to expect the worst. As stated, Graendal has seen balefire used as a WMD, I doubt Aristotle would expect an H-bomb but someone who has lived in a world where they were dropped frequently would certainly be wary.

[haloun]

i am in support of both theories actually especially with the information sanderson released in the seven stripped woman, if graendel survived it happened this way, she kidnapped elayne, then when rand sent his "peace treaty" compulsed her to use compulsion (elayne learned it from moggy) on ramshalan and then got out of there, she knew about the supposed alliace with sammael which we all know went very far south. that explains a whole bunch from upcoming events as well, but i personally think graendel died.

[Lynander]

Moiraine and Thom both "died" off screen and aren't dead. I have never been a believer of off screen deaths. Therefore, under that reasoning that it happened off screen, she is alive...somehow. The compulsion test on Rammy doesn't do it for me. Could have been anyone. And Nyn said there were differences between the dude that dies from compulsion being removed and Rammy's compulsion.

[Hybrid]

And Nyn said there were differences between the dude that dies from compulsion being removed and Rammy's compulsion.

The differences between the Compulsion weaves aren't really indicative of anything. Sammael in ACOS (I think) thinks to himself that Graendal uses Compulsion so often as a hammer that people forget she can use it as a scalpel. And we've got no reason to doubt his belief, since it fits Graendal's character perfectly.

[firstfishman]

She is dead!!! Asmo is dead!!!

 

Seriously, with only two books left, do you think that RJ intended to be bringing chosen back into the story?

 

RJ said he would be done in ONE BOOK, do you think he would have made that claim if he knew he would have to devote at least a third of the remaining story to two chosen that have come back from the dead?

 

BS would have had to "trim" a few pointless bits of the story in order to fit it into the three he had been given leave to write, do you think he would see a point to having them miraculously survive?

 

THEY ARE DEAD!!!! FACE IT!!! ACCEPT IT!!!! MOVE ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dastion]

I saw a few problems with your assumptions in the original post:

 

1) Ramshalan did not "know" he was going to see Graendal, he did not know where Rand was sending him. He did know that Rand was after Graendal in a general sense, but he didn't know what had just happened with the boy Nynaeve found before being sent. Though, as I will go into below, he likely knew enough to give Graendal a definite clue, she's far from an idiot.

 

2) You state that linked channelers can use only one person's flow of the power, but the examples you cited do not match this circumstance. Yes, when a man and woman link they can choose whether to weave Saidin or Saidar, the two cannot mix. She still holds both as part of having formed the link (Nynaeve describes linking as feeling the power enter her and flow through to someone else), but she can choose to weave it either way. We do not know if when holding a pool of Saidar drawn from different women you can choose split out who's is who's. Separating Oil and Water is one thing, separating Water and Water is another. The other example uses two women linked by the A'dam, likely referring to Nynaeve using Mog's power. However, the A'dam is different than a conventional circle..that's the very reason Nynaeve uses it. You have to be able to embrace the power to join a circle, which brings us back to the last point of separating water and water. This is not so with an A'dam. However, this one isn't such a big deal since there are other ways (as you mentioned) for her to have gotten the compulsion on him indirectly.

 

 

Graendal was my all time favorite Forsaken. She wasn't some in your face kill you enemy, but she knew the human mind so well that it made her a master of psychological warfare. The way she wove her plants to intricately with redundancies and counter measures made her easily one of the Dark One's best subjects (Is it bad, that as I was writing about how much I like Graendal I almost wrote 'Great Lord' instead of 'Dark One'? Maybe that says something about me... heh)

 

So, I would be very sad to see her go with an even less exciting demise than Be'lal got. Personally, I really don't think she's dead. She's too good at what she does for that. When Ramshalamn came to her, she obviously compelled him to tell her what he knew, and at the very least Ramshalan knew that he had been suddenly summoned by Rand, right after one of her compelled subjects died (odds are she knew about the raid at the very least, and possibly places something on her compelled charges to know if they die, as Sammael did). He could tell her Rand had then personally made a gateway to send him there. Rand's impatience gave him away easily in this. So it seems all too likely Graendal did something to trick him. My guess is that the compulsion was set to dissolve when delved, since she knew Rand is arrogant enough to attack immediately once he confirmed the presence of the weave.

[A Trite Pun]

She is dead!!! Asmo is dead!!!

 

Seriously, with only two books left, do you think that RJ intended to be bringing chosen back into the story?

 

RJ said he would be done in ONE BOOK, do you think he would have made that claim if he knew he would have to devote at least a third of the remaining story to two chosen that have come back from the dead?

 

BS would have had to "trim" a few pointless bits of the story in order to fit it into the three he had been given leave to write, do you think he would see a point to having them miraculously survive?

 

THEY ARE DEAD!!!! FACE IT!!! ACCEPT IT!!!! MOVE ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

lol

[Jblaylock]

I don't think that Graendal knew that Rand had the Choy'dingdong on him (yes I intentionaly misspelled that), or that he would use it to balefire an entire castle. She's brilliant, but possibly ignored such a simple yet unfathomable solution. In my opinion, based on her previous trickery and psyc play with others, she would have been looking a few moves ahead on the stonesboard, protecting against every possible strategic move and then some, and would have failed to recognize the bull staring her in the face getting ready to charge.

[yoniy0]

Since Brandon confirmed that the timeline of ToM will overlap that of TGS and that Graendal will be mentioned in it, let me just say now that if you've read ToM you should be very careful about what you post here.

 

Absolutely no spoilers will be tolerated.

[Khosann]

ToM answers that but no spoilers here.

[aaron11]

are spoilers allowed on here yet?