NFL Discussion

[SinisterDeath]

49 minutes ago, Tyzack said:

1.) Concerns around player safety were initiated by the players, which means that the XFL will have to create a compensation package large enough to attract new talent away from the NFL and pull talent from the NFL. Note that most of these changes around player safety have been in youth football, and college football for years - and in other sports. 

Adam Thielen is a free Agent.
He went Un-drafted from the NFL for years. He tried out at the Vikings training camp for several years before they finally hired him. IT took a couple of years, but now he's in the top 10 list of wide receivers for the NFL.

 

Becoming an NFL player through the draft is like winning the damned lottery. There are a lot of really talented players that go un-drafted. IF they run the XFL when the NFL is on off-season? Where the hell do you think all those guys who go to try out for the NFL are going on the off season?

 

49 minutes ago, Tyzack said:

2.) Asides from players (see 1), you'd need to get fans who were anti-politics (specifically anti-progressive politics) in sports to watch. Would they watch a game with lower caliber play because everyone stood for the national anthem and weren't allowed to talk about what happens outside the white lines inside them?

 

Perhaps, but that's very small subset of the population.

 

It's useful to note while viewership down overall, viewership in markets where teams were competitive was unchanged from normal. What happened this year was that almost half the teams (15) were under .500, and of those 15, most of them were "major market" teams which, if/when they were/are good drive overall national ratings.

Think of it like the WWE/TNA (UFC/MMA/etc), and the various competitors it has had through out the years. I never really followed that stuff but I'm sure there's a market there.

 

Sports fanatics go to local games to get there football/sports fix. Another show on tv? They'll hit that. Specially with growing dissatisfaction in refs in the NFL, and a growing number of people who believe it's rigged.

 

Quote

Money don't grow on trees
I got bills to pay, I got mouths to feed
There ain't nothing in this world for free
Oh no, I can't slow down, I can't hold back
Though you know, I wish I could
Oh no there ain't no rest for the wicked
Until we close our eyes for good
~Cage the Elepehant

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by SinisterDeath

[Tyzack]

7 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

Adam Thielen is a free Agent.
He went Un-drafted from the NFL for years. He tried out at the Vikings training camp for several years before they finally hired him. IT took a couple of years, but now he's in the top 10 list of wide receivers for the NFL.

 

Becoming an NFL player through the draft is like winning the damned lottery. There are a lot of really talented players that go un-drafted. IF they run the XFL when the NFL is on off-season? Where the hell do you think all those guys who go to try out for the NFL are going on the off season?

 

Think of it like the WWE/TNA (UFC/MMA/etc), and the various competitors it has had through out the years. I never really followed that stuff but I'm sure there's a market there.

 

Sports fanatics go to local games to get there football/sports fix. Another show on tv? They'll hit that. Specially with growing dissatisfaction in refs in the NFL, and a growing number of people who believe it's rigged.

 

 

 

1.) CFL - most of their players are un-drafted US college athletes.

 

2.) Okay, but that's different. That's saying that the XFL would a "minor leauge" version of the NFL; sure they'll fill 5-10,000 seat arenas, but they'll never have the market force, power, penetration, cap or profit as the NFL.

 

It's a -big event- when the UFC sells out 20-30,000 person venues, with the majority of events taking place in smaller (5-10,000) person venues.

 

NFL teams routinely sell out 75,000(+) venues; that's a whole different level.

[SinisterDeath]

2 minutes ago, Tyzack said:

 

1.) CFL - most of their players are un-drafted US college athletes.

 

2.) Okay, but that's different. That's saying that the XFL would a "minor leauge" version of the NFL; sure they'll fill 5-10,000 seat arenas, but they'll never have the market force, power, penetration, cap or profit as the NFL.

 

It's a -big event- when the UFC sells out 20-30,000 person venues, with the majority of events taking place in smaller (5-10,000) person venues.

 

NFL teams routinely sell out 75,000(+) venues; that's a whole different level.

CFL: Yea, that's Canada, how many undafted college kids are going to pack up to Canada if they have something closer to home?

 

Small Venues, that can still have big TV presence. 

20k people at UFC, but 2+ million viewers on TV? Not everything has to be about filling seats.

Edited January 26, 2018 by SinisterDeath

[Tyzack]

51 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

 

Small Venues, that can still have big TV presence. 

20k people at UFC, but 2+ million viewers on TV? Not everything has to be about filling seats.

 

So litterally more of a WWE take (entertainment; small venues, supported by distribution), on football?

 

I don't know if it'll take. Without skill the NFL devolves into what Bo Schembelcher would call "student body right," which isn't anywhere near as fun to watch.

[SinisterDeath]

21 minutes ago, Tyzack said:

 

So litterally more of a WWE take (entertainment; small venues, supported by distribution), on football?

 

I don't know if it'll take. Without skill the NFL devolves into what Bo Schembelcher would call "student body right," which isn't anywhere near as fun to watch.

Maybe, but who says it'll be without skill?

 

Consider this.

Patriot's aren't fun to watch. No one likes watching them blow every team in the water. (Typo pun intended?)

However the best games played this year, were the ones where the matches were the closest. Where the games were decided by 1 or 2 points. Patriot's had that near the end of their season with Brady coming back from a 20 point deficit. Vikings had that against the Saints.

 

If the XFL has games like that, all the time? Well that makes damn good tv.

[Tyzack]

I love watching the Patriots.

[Andrej]

7 hours ago, Nolder said:

Have you read up on the details (such as they are)?

It seems like a legitimate attempt to provide what the NFL does not.

There won't even be cheerleaders.

 

Count me out

[Andrej]

I’d agree that there’s definitely a market for talent that the XFL could tap into. Starting from high school the number of kids that progress to college programs is an extremely small percentage, much less to major schools: Bama, Clemson, USC, etc. From there the number of players that make it onto NFL rosters is even smaller. Out of several thousand (?) college athletes that graduate every year only several hundred are drafted and even less are invited to the NFL combine. There’s certainly a pool of players to delve into - it’s more a matter of coaching and development that will affect the product on the field. Hardcore football fans might see the XFL as a sham from an X and Os standpoint, but if their angle is more for entertainment I think they’ll find viewers. Hell, I know adults who are still crazy about the WWE.

 

As far as player safety/compensation - I'd argue that despite all the research there are still people out there who just want to play the game, and/or make a lot of money in the process. I think the impact would be less on finding players to suit up but more with viewers/medical professionals arguing that its too brutal/dangerous.

[Andrej]

Also regional markets, etc. I agree even if the XFL became a staying power it would never be as big or powerful or lucrative as the NFL, but if they are smart with their marketing strategy and set up camp in places without NFL franchises that they’ll find some success. There’s still big city markets they could tap into: San Antonio, San Diego, Portland, Oakland (soon), St. Louis for examples.

[Andrej]

8 hours ago, Tyzack said:

Okay, but that's different. That's saying that the XFL would a "minor leauge" version of the NFL; sure they'll fill 5-10,000 seat arenas, but they'll never have the market force, power, penetration, cap or profit as the NFL.

 

This is a major concern I would have if I was investing. There’ll be young players out of college to pick up that don’t make the NFL, but those who come into the XFL and shine (to include coaches) might get poached by the NFL at some point. They won’t be able to compete when it comes down to salary.

[Andrej]

15 hours ago, BFG said:

Lol, it is played over a year (more or less). Winning the premiership and fa cup in the same year is the 'double'

 

I would guess that a lot of the organisation for the qualifying rounds (~600 of the teams) is done at a club level. So their are dates set aside for that round of the fixtures and the draw is done by the FA officials, but anything else needed (match officials etc) organised by the teams. 

 

Premier/championship play up to 6 games (plus rematches if necessary) but this is on top of the league (premiership is 38 games) charity shield (just one game, but draws a bit of attention) and any European games. 

 

Equally football is lower impact than American football and the better players may sit out or sub games that should be easy so they can rest (and other players gain match experience) 

 

Also travel times are shorter :p

 

I’m amused with the idea of seeing a bunch of washed up frat boys getting a club together and taking on a professional team

 

Travel time: I agree. That was actually something I thought about when I was thinking of how to restructure the NFL into more region friendly divisions/conferences. For instance, my favorite team (Dallas) has two nearby franchises in Houston and New Orleans that they don’t play very often because they’re in different groups. Regionally, I think those would make for great rivalries. Not only would it be less expensive for the franchises as far as travel/lodging goes (they make billions every year anyway so  ) but for the fans making those game wouldn’t be as hard either.

[Nolder]

8 hours ago, Andrej said:

 

Count me out

You don't even see NFL cheerleaders anymore anyway except for a brief 2 seconds or so on TV unless you're actually at a game.

[Nolder]

15 hours ago, Tyzack said:

 

Yes, and it'll still be a joke.

 

They're betting, basically, that the changes in the game around player safety, combined with using sports as an outlet for politics, has created a large enough splinter in the market that a rival leauge can form.

 

Both of these are very weak assumptions, and combined they are, well, a joke.

NFL viewership is down ~20% in some cases. If there's a time to try it's now.

 

15 hours ago, Tyzack said:

 

1.) Concerns around player safety were initiated by the players, which means that the XFL will have to create a compensation package large enough to attract new talent away from the NFL and pull talent from the NFL. Note that most of these changes around player safety have been in youth football, and college football for years - and in other sports. 

Many fans want (or think they want) a sport less concerned with safety. If the viewership can be turned the money will be there. That said this is at least a valid reason to think it wont take off.

 

15 hours ago, Tyzack said:

2.) Asides from players (see 1), you'd need to get fans who were anti-politics (specifically anti-progressive politics) in sports to watch. Would they watch a game with lower caliber play because everyone stood for the national anthem and weren't allowed to talk about what happens outside the white lines inside them?

 

Perhaps, but that's very small subset of the population.

 

It's useful to note while viewership down overall, viewership in markets where teams were competitive was unchanged from normal. What happened this year was that almost half the teams (15) were under .500, and of those 15, most of them were "major market" teams which, if/when they were/are good drive overall national ratings.

Just like the 2016 election, you may be underestimating the population. I guess that remains to be seen though.

[Andrej]

10 hours ago, Nolder said:

You don't even see NFL cheerleaders anymore anyway except for a brief 2 seconds or so on TV unless you're actually at a game.

 

If you think I watch football for the cheerleaders then you missed my sarcasm.

[SinisterDeath]

On 1/26/2018 at 5:47 PM, Andrej said:

 

Count me out

When watching on TV, you barely even see them... so this is barely a problem.

 

On 1/26/2018 at 6:05 PM, Andrej said:

Also regional markets, etc. I agree even if the XFL became a staying power it would never be as big or powerful or lucrative as the NFL, but if they are smart with their marketing strategy and set up camp in places without NFL franchises that they’ll find some success. There’s still big city markets they could tap into: San Antonio, San Diego, Portland, Oakland (soon), St. Louis for examples.

I know Fargo, ND is big enough for the equivalent to a minor league team. I'm pretty sure they have a Baseball one. Tons of real Cities that don't have a sports team that could easily house a league like this.

 

On 1/26/2018 at 8:14 PM, Andrej said:

 

This is a major concern I would have if I was investing. There’ll be young players out of college to pick up that don’t make the NFL, but those who come into the XFL and shine (to include coaches) might get poached by the NFL at some point. They won’t be able to compete when it comes down to salary.

Welcome to the life of a Vikings Fan. Most of our players/staff get poached and go on to win super bowls.

 

On 1/27/2018 at 2:25 AM, Nolder said:

Many fans want (or think they want) a sport less concerned with safety. If the viewership can be turned the money will be there. That said this is at least a valid reason to think it wont take off.

Personally, I want small teams Iron Man Style.

No clock stopping, only Time Outs, and Half Time.

 

Your Defense is your Offensive Team, and you only have minimal amount of teammates per game to replace in case of Injury (No More than Half your field team as reserve?)

 

[Clovdyx]

On 1/27/2018 at 3:21 AM, Nolder said:

You don't even see NFL cheerleaders anymore anyway except for a brief 2 seconds or so on TV unless you're actually at a game.

 

Maybe YOU don't.  It's about 50/50 Brady/cheerleaders for me.

[Andrej]

3 hours ago, SinisterDeath said:

Your Defense is your Offensive Team, and you only have minimal amount of teammates per game to replace in case of Injury (No More than Half your field team as reserve?)

 

Hello arena football.

[Tyzack]

20 hours ago, Andrej said:

 

Hello arena football.

 

Or pro-bowl style football is more what I'm thinking about. People like seeing explosive offenses more than defenses. Since there seems to be an anti-player safety element, the way to do this would be to make it a sport that features more 45-42 games and fewer 12-6 games; much more akin, in that aspect to college football.

 

Also, professional sports viewership is down across the board for ye olde millenials, so in terms of long term market forces, I think that's going to be a bigger driver than concerns around player safety or political activities.

[Andrej]

35 minutes ago, Tyzack said:

Or pro-bowl style football is more what I'm thinking about. People like seeing explosive offenses more than defenses. Since there seems to be an anti-player safety element, the way to do this would be to make it a sport that features more 45-42 games and fewer 12-6 games; much more akin, in that aspect to college football.

 

Shoot outs are more entertaining for the generic viewer, I’d agree with that. Those games can be a lot of fun to watch. I like good defensive games as well, but I think that’s akin to baseball fans who love seeing pitcher duals in 1-0 games with extra innings. It looks boring to the outsider but for someone who understands and appreciates the game, it’s still enjoyable. Generally though, 45-42 final scores look more “fun” on paper and I’m probably in a smaller percentage of people who like the low-scoring slug fests.

 

 

[Tyzack]

Which is what I'm saying.

 

"American audiences", in general like more fast-paced sports; hence why basketball is more popular than, say, soccer (or hkcoy). Baselbaal i sonly really "Accepted" because of it's historical nature, I'd find it hard to believe that if it were a newly created leuage it would get much viewership - i present all the "reforms" to speed up the game, and the fact the no one's talking about making a national cricket leuage here (though urban/suburban teams are popping up, at least in Boston). 

 

Though, really, the biggest thing, and what killed it last time, was it's failure to bring over advertisers. If the NFL says " we won't let you advertise on our games if you support the xfl" then, i think the real conflict will arrise.

 

Also, there's every indication that we're heading for another recession, and sports (recreational activities in general) taper off during downturns as people have less disposal income.

[SinisterDeath]

5 minutes ago, Tyzack said:

Also, there's every indication that we're heading for another recession, and sports (recreational activities in general) taper off during downturns as people have less disposal income.

It's easier to air a show on TV on a random field, then it is to fill a stadium with fans.

[Tyzack]

3 hours ago, SinisterDeath said:

It's easier to air a show on TV on a random field, then it is to fill a stadium with fans.

 

That's interesting; broadcasting rights (and advertising) have long since surpassed in-person ticket sales as revenue drivers.

 

Are we headed towards athletes playing in essentially sound-studios with room for a few hundred "guests/fans?"

 

Is an attendance of the last (ever) world series of three hundred not all that unrealistic?

Edited January 29, 2018 by Tyzack

[SinisterDeath]

57 minutes ago, Tyzack said:

 

That's interesting; broadcasting rights (and advertising) have long since surpassed in-person ticket sales as revenue drivers.

 

Are we headed towards athletes playing in essentially sound-studios with room for a few hundred "guests/fans?"

 

Is an attendance of the last (ever) world series of three hundred not all that unrealistic?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn_EiAzW2uQ

[Tyzack]

7 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn_EiAzW2uQ

 

I thought that was supposed to be highschool.

 

Highschool games I went to attendance looked ... like that? I dunno, maybe a thousand? 

 

I was refering to:

...

 

well, it's ds9 season 1, ep 16...an absolutely horrible episode, but we learn that there were three hundred people at the last world series, ever, played in 2048.

 

The London Kings won, so at least we have an MLB expansion in England to look forward to.

[Andrej]

ESPN reports Alex Smith traded to the Washington Redskins and is expected to be given a four year extension averaging $23.5mil a year with $71mil guaranteed. The deal cannot be finalized until March 14th and the Redskins are expected to give up a third round pick and corner Kendall Fuller.

 

Initial thoughts?

Edited January 31, 2018 by Andrej