Cleanse the Tower - Black Tower Mafia Day 2

[Niniel]

 

 

A townie is going to die day 1. Accept it, and focus on using D1 to develop sufficient information to make that sacrifice meaningful.

That's pretty fatalistic. I've been in several games recently where scum were lynched Day 1. It's not some absurd anomaly.

 

 

No, it's not.  It probably happens about 25% of the time.

 

The D1 lynch is essentially random.  Yes, yes, it's based on conduct D1, but without sufficient context to evaluate that conduct (i.e. information about anyone's alignment but your own), and barring extreme cases, choosing a lynch candidate D1 based on scumminess is about as effective as throwing darts.  And in a game in which 3:1 town ratio is standard, that means D1 randomness alone would lead to a scum lynch in roughly 1/4 games.  And, of course, note that the actual number is probably less than that, because scum tend to not want their mates lynched, and act to suppress that possibility (which generates information for later lynches).

 

Frankly, Yates, I'm surprised that I need to point out the importance of context and its absence's impact on D1, given your strenuous arguments about the importance of context to D1 casing in Tress' game currently running on the mafia board.  I guess that inconsistency in theoretical approach to D1 could mean you're scum either here or there, huh?

 

 

No talking about other ongoing games, please. 

 

Al'Lan Mandragoran stood in perfect balance, Heron Wading in the Rushes.  His blade was a blunted version of the Heron-Marked blade that both he and his opponent normally carried yet it was still perfectly balanced, a sword with few equals.  Apart from him Rand stood in the same form.  He was not certain why the boy had called him out to the courtyard but knew that advisers were impatiently waiting at the edge of their sparring circle.  Just as Lan's eyes flashed over to the advisors Rand cut into motion.  

 

Kingfisher Takes a Silverback was met with Low Wind Rising, became Boar Rushes Down the Mountain and Rand was forced back a pace.  Rand twisted into Unfolding the Fan and Lan had to quickly duck and backstep to avoid the blade.  That was a reckless move by his one-time protege, he thought.  He didn't have time for more as Rand charged him with Boar Rushes Down the Mountain, but instead of blocking it Lan stepped quickly to the side and came up into Reaping the Barley, smacking The Dragon Reborn firmly in the ribs above his wounded side.  

 

Rand looked over at Lan, panting, and gave him a firm nod.  They exchanged brief nods and by that time the advisers had made it to them.  He turned to face one of them, a Dedicated hidden among the pack, and whatever the boy told him Rand looked grimmer for it.  He gave a curt nod and the boy was off.

 

 

It is now Day ONE.  You have 24 hours to achieve a lynch.  

 

Remember that as a hybrid hammer a majority is not needed, but should you reach majority day will be ended and all unused time will go back into the pot.  

 

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.  

 

COUNTDOWN 24 HOURS

 

I love all those names. Kingfisher takes a silverback... poetry. 

 

 

I love that all we're talking about is mechanics.

 

 

Yup. But Kivam is right, it has to start somewhere. 

 

 

Put me in the gang that likes a longer D1. It´s often important to look back on D1 posts later on in the game. It gives us information instead of just a mafia kill right away. 

 

 

Now I will go back and see why EP is voting Time because I didn´t understand any of his last post.

[Ithillian Turambar]

And if there's some character or specific way I've voted wrong let me know because once I got to the mechanics my eyes glazed over and I stopped reading.

[Gabriel Kross]

I think that Time and EP are both Mafia and did the whole fake argument over silliness to then work up to this blatant distancing vote from EP.

 

If I'm right then I might as well [v]## Time[/v] and get EP next round.

 

I don't understand the numbers. My time is limited. I work full time and look after my family in the evening. If you shorten the days to be based in America I'll be working, sleeping or busy.

 

Just a thought.

There has never been a game where you didn't point your finger at me on day one. Not that it matters, but good to see somethings never change lol.

[Niniel]

 

[v] ## 24 hours [/v]

 

Anything less than that benefits mafia IMO... :P

explain your reasoning, why do you think it benefits mafia to have less than 24 hours? I could say anything but red writing benefits the mafia, but that neither explains my reasoning or makes it valid. Considering no majority needs to be reached your vote comes across as a mafia just trying to make sure you have a vote on the board.

 

 

This was the original post. I have no idea why EP chose to comment on this post but chose to not comment on others that are alike. 

 

 

[v] EP [/v]

 

 

Other than that, I think Thane is a bit careful in the beginning. Will just note it for the moment. 

[Leyrann]

 

 

 

 

 

 

If 5 players are inactive at deadline, it would be natural to assume the majority are town, in roughly the same proportion: 3.75/5 town, 1.25/5 scum.  Since you can't have a quarter of a player, that means a fair assumption would be 4 town/1 scum (3/2 is possible, though unlikely).  That would put the numbers at 8-3, or roughly the same concentration of town-to-scum as our default of 12-4.

No no. You are making bad assumptions here and not accounting for human psychology/behavior. It's the same reason you don't just invest all your money in McDonalds just because historically the price trend is up. What if some film maker shoots a documentary that goes viral about how terribly unhealthy McDonalds products are and competitors use that as leverage to draw off that market share by promoting their [relatively] healthier options? You need to weigh that so you can do a proper risk analysis that could prevent you from making a huge mistake.

 

In the world of forum mafia, I think we can all agree that the informed minority [the scum] have extra incentive to work together and to be there at deadline. I can almost guarantee that scum will try much harder than Town [especially, say, a VT?] to be there for their teammates.

 

While I agree that Turin may have overstated a touch, he's more right than wrong and you are more wrong than right.

 

 

And you're assuming people signed up for this game with no intention of playing it.  Townies have a team as much as scum do, and no, scum don't necessarily have an incentive to "be there at deadline" unless one of their own is likely to be on the chopping block.  My assumption is that players who can be on at or near deadline will be, regardless of alignment; if that's not the case, players are disrespecting the mod, and me, and anyone else who gives a *&^% enough to put effort into the game.  And by the same token, players who can't be on won't be, regardless of alignment (which, of course, is the definition of "cant")

 

 

This world isn't paradise. There will always be people who just don't show up, and he is right that people do so as town more often than as mafia. Just because you don't like it or think it's morally wrong or something like that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Don't hide from the truth you don't want to see.

 

I just watched a game run where 50% of the scum team were MIA due to RL issues ... in a game where post count impacted win chances.  And those were dedicated players who generally show up whenever they can.  RL is RL, and townies and scum share in its impact.

 

Now, you may be less engaged as town than scum (and what does that say about your engagement level here, btw? ), but most of the folks I play with aren't

 

 

I'm NOT talking about myself. If you were to check my games - though, honestly, all long ago - I tend to be one of the top posters except in a few of the later games where I was just not ready for myself to play mafia (which I've since fixed, hence my current activity).

 

RL can happen to everyone, yes, but sometimes people disappear for other reasons, which have to do with their role in the game, and THAT happens more often to people playing town than people playing mafia. As someone who's disproportionally often been distributed mafia roles or town power roles, I can see how a vanilla town game is boring and harder to keep playing.

 

 

1) I can't

 

2) Given your apparent lack of boredom here, I guess you're either claiming a power role or acknowledging that you're mafia?  If I were scum and you weren't, btw, I'd have just called you out on the QT as a NK.  So I figured I may as well float it on the thread so that if we have a doctor, they can consider protecting you tonight

 

 

It was not my intention to do that... I am just saying I know pretty well how it is to play with a power role - despite having played what, 15 games - while I have only had a vanilla town role a few times before this game, Maybe twice or something.

[Gabriel Kross]

 

 

[v] ## 24 hours [/v]

 

Anything less than that benefits mafia IMO... :P

explain your reasoning, why do you think it benefits mafia to have less than 24 hours? I could say anything but red writing benefits the mafia, but that neither explains my reasoning or makes it valid. Considering no majority needs to be reached your vote comes across as a mafia just trying to make sure you have a vote on the board.

 

 

This was the original post. I have no idea why EP chose to comment on this post but chose to not comment on others that are alike. 

 

 

[v] EP [/v]

 

 

Other than that, I think Thane is a bit careful in the beginning. Will just note it for the moment. 

 

because Time gave no reason at all, where others gave their own reasons. I asked her for a reason and she gave flawed logic general mafia rules as her reasons, hence my vote on her.

[Niniel]

I think that Time and EP are both Mafia and did the whole fake argument over silliness to then work up to this blatant distancing vote from EP.

 

If I'm right then I might as well [v]## Time[/v] and get EP next round.

 

I don't understand the numbers. My time is limited. I work full time and look after my family in the evening. If you shorten the days to be based in America I'll be working, sleeping or busy.

 

Just a thought.

 

Saw this now. I´m not sure Time would like to be involved in a plan like that. 

[Niniel]

This was Time´s answer. I agree with her so I don´t see it that way. 

 

Your point about the red text is illogical due to the fact that it automatically becomes red when you type in the vote code, and anything less than 24 hours benefits mafia because the shorter amount of time town has, the more likely it will be to be picked off due to the fact that not everybody knows who town is.

[Niniel]

That was @ EP.

[Kivam]

UnOfficial Vote Count 1:

 

Yates (1/9): Kivam

Kivam (1/9): Ley

WoT (2/9): Ithi, Phoenix

Pheonix (1/9): Tina

 

Not Voting (11/16):

RTE, Dice, Thane, Len, Turin, Tommy, Laya, WoT, Locke, AJ, Yates

 

 

[Kivam]

Which reminds me. I needed to [v]unvote. ##vote Turin[/v]

[Gabriel Kross]

 

This was Time´s answer. I agree with her so I don´t see it that way. 

 

Your point about the red text is illogical due to the fact that it automatically becomes red when you type in the vote code, and anything less than 24 hours benefits mafia because the shorter amount of time town has, the more likely it will be to be picked off due to the fact that not everybody knows who town is.

 

as far as I understand, you agree with the choice for a different reason completely. While I in general disagreed with the 24hour day 1 (reason posted with my vote during night phase) it was Time's reason that stuck out to me as being off. Are you saying that you've never agreed with something a mafia member has said in game just to find out later they are mafia?

[Kivam]

UnOfficial Vote Count 2:

 

Turin (1/9): Kivam

Kivam (1/9): Ley

WoT (2/9): Ithi, Phoenix

Pheonix (1/9): Tina

 

Not Voting (11/16):

RTE, Dice, Thane, Len, Turin, Tommy, Laya, WoT, Locke, AJ, Yates

 

 

[Leyrann]

 

 

I love that all we're talking about is mechanics.

 

How is that a bad way to catch scum? Generally, scum will want mechanics that we can influence to work in their advantage, and therefore they'll try to push everyone in a for them advantageous direction. For example saying "we only have limited time" and then wanting to make the days much shorter than logically needed, because if we run such short days without catching mafia we'd already have lost due to mafia majority before we were out of time anyways.

 

Not sure why you think "12 hour D1" = "12 hour every day".  I'd have liked to take a 12hr D1, a 20hr or so D2, and then distribute the extra time we'd have saved to days 3 and beyond.

 

 

Considering the average day should be 36 hours (this way we end at 0 when we lose majority in the worst case scenario of not lynching any scum. Lynching scum means that losing the majority is one day later, which basically means we should still take days of 36 hours), we already saved 12 hours. When do you want to use that? Day 3?

 

First off I'd like to vote wheeloftime13 reasons below

 

Your point about the red text is illogical due to the fact that it automatically becomes red when you type in the vote code, and anything less than 24 hours benefits mafia because the shorter amount of time town has, the more likely it will be to be picked off due to the fact that not everybody knows who town is.

You're saying a point is illogical becuase the information was irrelevant, which was the actual point I was making. The details of the sentence I used were unimportant, the point I was making was not. Also your argument for shorter days is the basics of Mafia no mater the amount of time that day 1 has.

 

 

 

Your point about the red text is illogical due to the fact that it automatically becomes red when you type in the vote code, and anything less than 24 hours benefits mafia because the shorter amount of time town has, the more likely it will be to be picked off due to the fact that not everybody knows who town is.

 

A townie is going to die day 1. Accept it, and focus on using D1 to develop sufficient information to make that sacrifice meaningful.  Spending more time on D1 spam and silliness isn't beneficial to the town in the long run when the game has a total time clock that benefits scum

I am not understanding what you see in my post that shows silliness... While there is a greater chance of losing a townie, there is no guarantee that we won't lynch scum... My saying that those who want less time are more likely to benefit mafia should be seen as a valid point because the less amount of day there is, the quicker they can night kill a member of town, so therefore mafia is likely to be among those who don't want a long day... This will be good to keep in mind when deciding who to lynch...

 

Again you're using the basics of Mafia to justify your position when you forgot 2 things. 1) unless otherwise blocked or prevented the Mafia's kill will go through no matter how long the day is. 2) the more time we spend during the day the more time we use up possibly leading to giving mafia 2 kills.

 

Put simply, you've been playing long enough to beable to come up with your own reasons instead of defaulting to generalised mafia rules as your reason for your opinion.

 

I have a few other suspects as well.

 

And again someone is trying to shorten up the days to far below the maximum time without putting us into trouble. Haven't you read my posts? I've calculated at least three times (counting this post) that we can take 36 hours per day without having to be afraid of running out of time, because when time's up (with 36 hours per day), so is our majority.

 

I think that Time and EP are both Mafia and did the whole fake argument over silliness to then work up to this blatant distancing vote from EP.

 

If I'm right then I might as well [v]## Time[/v] and get EP next round.

 

I don't understand the numbers. My time is limited. I work full time and look after my family in the evening. If you shorten the days to be based in America I'll be working, sleeping or busy.

 

Just a thought.

 

Yeah okay, I don't believe that you can link people this easily this soon, but I know that my opinion on that differs from what most people think.

[Gabriel Kross]

Actually Leyrann to be honest I've only skimmed your posts the green is hard for me to read these days since my setup is different than it used to be. Also I voted for 16 hours, I don't like the option of limiting it to just basicall 3 strikes your out kind of thing. In games I've played in the past it generally took atleast 4 attempts to bag the first mafia member. (sure it was mostly because peope were focused on me most of the time, but who's counting?)

[Niniel]

 

 

This was Time´s answer. I agree with her so I don´t see it that way. 

 

Your point about the red text is illogical due to the fact that it automatically becomes red when you type in the vote code, and anything less than 24 hours benefits mafia because the shorter amount of time town has, the more likely it will be to be picked off due to the fact that not everybody knows who town is.

 

as far as I understand, you agree with the choice for a different reason completely. While I in general disagreed with the 24hour day 1 (reason posted with my vote during night phase) it was Time's reason that stuck out to me as being off. Are you saying that you've never agreed with something a mafia member has said in game just to find out later they are mafia?

 

 

I surely have many times. I still don´t see why her reason is scummier than others. 

[Kivam]

Ley - in the interest of ending infinite quote nesting: yes, I'd like to assign banked time to Day 3 and forward, since that's where I think it will pay the most dividends.

[Gabriel Kross]

 

 

 

This was Time´s answer. I agree with her so I don´t see it that way. 

 

Your point about the red text is illogical due to the fact that it automatically becomes red when you type in the vote code, and anything less than 24 hours benefits mafia because the shorter amount of time town has, the more likely it will be to be picked off due to the fact that not everybody knows who town is.

 

as far as I understand, you agree with the choice for a different reason completely. While I in general disagreed with the 24hour day 1 (reason posted with my vote during night phase) it was Time's reason that stuck out to me as being off. Are you saying that you've never agreed with something a mafia member has said in game just to find out later they are mafia?

 

 

I surely have many times. I still don´t see why her reason is scummier than others. 

 

 

Because her reason isn't a reason. Everything she stated as a reason will happen regardless of how much time we have.

[Niniel]

Aha. Now I actually get what you mean. I think... Or not... I agree with her that it´s more likely that we lynch mafia if we wait a little longer and have more facts to back our votes on. In my case I see it also more as a way to get information later in the game. 

[Turin Turambar]

Been skimming a bit will try to read up once finished for day.

 

To me the combo of "day 1 is useless" and the shortened day 1 add up to self fulfilling prophecy.. Day one is about information and the more time the more information. The super short day 1 means that day 2 starts just like day 2 with the exception of a probable nk and hopefully some results from prs. Those results will likely not he published tho so it is pretty much day 1 all over again. The running out of time argument is fearmongering as well. But the choice is made so no.point in flogging this deaf horse anymore.

[Niniel]

Going to bed. I have to warn you that tomorrow is going to be a busy day but I will try to pop in at my lunch break. I usually don´t post at work. 

[Kivam]

Been skimming a bit will try to read up once finished for day.

 

To me the combo of "day 1 is useless" and the shortened day 1 add up to self fulfilling prophecy.. Day one is about information and the more time the more information. The super short day 1 means that day 2 starts just like day 2 with the exception of a probable nk and hopefully some results from prs. Those results will likely not he published tho so it is pretty much day 1 all over again. The running out of time argument is fearmongering as well. But the choice is made so no.point in flogging this deaf horse anymore.

The bolded is false.  Info on D1 comes from interactions and competing trains (btw, while I'm at it: VOTE, PEOPLE) and DM's deadline mania suggests we won't be getting much of either until close to deadline regardless of how long D1 is.

[Clovdyx]

VOTE COUNT:

 

Yates - 1 - Kivam

Turin Turambar- 1 - Leyrann

Wheeloftime - 2 - Eternal Phoenix, Ithillian

Eternal Phoenix - 1 - TinaHel

 

Not voting: 11 ( RTE, Dice, Thane, Lenlo, Turin Turanbar, Tommy, Laya, Wheeloftime, Locke, AJ, Yates)

 

Day phase ends at 12:15 PM Eastern time on 12/9.  With 16 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Why is day ending on the 12th? That's ages away.

[Clovdyx]

It clearly says it's ending on the 9th.