Sherlock Holmes Role Madness Mafia Town wins

[Lenlo]

See?

See what? Bring something new up and ill talk about it, keep whining as you have and ill keep commenting on it.

 

Amazing how that works.

[Tsukibana]

 

Dogmatic play is always bad.

 

 

 

And yet you claimed Miller on a Dogmatic interpretation of the best way to do so.

 

Dogmatic play is always bad when it is something I disagree with.

 

Fixed that for you.

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

 

 

Vote count:

 

Csarmi (3): Len, Turin, Tsuki

pray (1): csarmi

Tsuki (1): Hally

Turin (1): des

Des (1): pray

Hally (1): dice

 

Not voting (3): Tina, Krak, BFG

 

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

 

 

DL is Wed. Jul. 2nd at 9 PM EST.

 

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20140702T21&p0=422

[Turin Turambar]

 

So why didn't he get killed night 1? Ithi had claimed. Mafia knew it was true. No way that mafia really thought they would get her lynched. I think the Dice 1.0 shot was pure luck. No I think that mafia thought Holmes HAD to be the cop and were searching for him.

 

Pretty sure that neither Tina or Lenlo are getting lynched today without some sort of result to point the way. But by all means make a case.

Lenlo isn't commenting on anything but me or defending himself if need be.

 

Tina dropped in yesterday with a scumtastic reasoning, dropped off w/o adding more as top candidate and asked that she don't understand why she was being voted.

 

Plus Thane spew (random lurker thing).

 

Well it has been about you for much of the past day plus. Has he taken a stand on you? 

 

Tina's train to me was mainly based around assuming Thane had spewed her mafia. I don't think that is a very strong case. Especially when it was being made by the leading vote getter. That is why the miller will always work against you. If holmes had a role cop ability it is too bad you couldn't get peeked early and confirmed if you were town. Dice could have even asked if there was a miller in the game. It would have resolved the issue and THEN you would have really been confirmed.

 

In the game you mentioned where Tinker spewed his team there was also a load of similar thought processes and cross defense that linked the mafia together. That added to the spewage established a more probable cause situation .

[Niniel]

This will be a short post since I need to go to bed but I will comment on some newer posts and get back tomorrow. 

 

Pralaya - I don´t think it´s wise to assume someones alignment by looking at their characters, even if you do it like you do and combine it with the role. It´s still gaming the mod and we know that fake claims are often given. 

 

Hally´s vote on Tsuki is weird and it doesn´t make her look any better.

 

I don´t understand Des´s vote on Turin. Turin is one of the people I have as town. 

 

I notice that few people talk about Krak as scum. Is it because of his claims? Because I still have him as mafia. 

[BFG]

These notes may be somewhat incoherent, I've made them when I've had a few minutes free throughout the day, they don't include Day 4 posts, as I wrote most of it during lunch at work without access to DM. I'll read through what's been posted since nd update (this took to long to write for me to redo now)

 

First, numbers: 16 players initially. Standard mafia tends to be 20-30% (25% is usual but will often add third party as well). I suspect that this time there are 4 mafia and a symp. A symp, having flipped with no extra role, and lacking standard mafia communication is (in a RM game particularly) weaker than a normal mafia member (with slight possibility of being stronger in endgame if they view as Town (which is something we don't know)). Given that Town is roled up, I think it highly unlikely that Mafia only had 3 full members and a symp. So I think it highly likely that there are still 4 mafia members left.

 

 

Csarmi

 

 

- slight town lean. Given that we've had a cop and detective flip (and either definition of the role would be pretty strong) as well as an oracle I think it highly likely that town have negative roles as well. His acting like he's confirmed is also well within Csarmi's town play. Against this I don't remember playing Csarmi when he's mafia, so it's possible/probable that this is something he can pull off as mafia as well. Scummy things in his play include the flip-flopping betwen Ithi/Turin as town/mafia, the day 1 vote on Lenlo (which is scummy enough to fall through the bottom of too scummy to be scum and land somewhere in the realm of triple and quadruple bluffs), honestly the defence of Chae I'm putting as somewhere between bond influenced and scummy. The early hammer and his reaction to Tina hammering early stand out as well. I don't like his assumption that he's confirmed, but have spent time in various dead threads with him, to know that Csarmi can think that way.

 

Town: Csarmi :Mafia

 

 

 

Hallia

 

 

- leaning Town. All minor things. But first a side note entitled 'The problem with a Governor'. Governors job is to stop a lynch. Most of the time the person getting lynched is not going to be a consensus town read, so using the ability is going to piss some people off, as it negates their viewpoint. I am leaning town on Csarmi, so her 'save' doesn't influence me overly in that regard. Turin's theory that Hallia could only prevent a majority lynch is also speculation, unless there's more about the role somewhere. Rules say that failure to achieve a lynch will lead in a random lynch. If the key word there is lynch instead of modkill then there's no reason to suspect that Hallia couldn't prevent one. Dunno, haven't played with Governor role before. Additionally numbers wise, if we started off with 4(+1) vs. 11 then Hallia's save could potentially give us 3 allowable mislynches instead of 2, think null effect overall if she saved mafia. There was also a response sometime when she said something like 'I've been open and vocal this game' I've only seen her get defensive over her 'new and improved' Town game as Town (and not every town game). (Obviously I will no longer consider this a town tell of Hallias). There are very few posts that are fluffy... Overall a town read.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi :Mafia

 

 

 

Roleclaims:

 

 

 

If there are 4 mafia (+symp), Hallia is almost certainly Town Governor. If there are 3 mafia(+ symp) then Csarmi is almost certainly miller. Note that this doesn't mean that I think 4 mafia means Csarmi can't be miller or vice versa with Hallia, since I have them both as Town, but it would be inconceivable for me for neither of these roles to be in. (If 4+1 - then town have 2 mislynches, Hallia gives +1 if guessed correctly and null if guesses wrong - I think I'll check later) (If 3+1 then mafia are weak (symp worth less than goon, unless symp views Town and can win when the 3 are dead, so Town MUST have -ve roles in this case) should say I'm not great at agreeing with mods when games are balanced, so not relying on this

 

 

 

 

Des

 

 

- The ONLY time I can remember Des focusing on character claims AT ALL is in the Waking Dead game when he was mafia. I've followed a game where he was almost lynched as town because he refused to character claim, as being against the spirit of the game. I know I've hardly been present but there seem to have been a lot of 'catch up later posts' when he's been fairly active in other games. Disagreeing with his reads isn't helping, but not unusual. If he flipped mafia then Csarmi would be pushed higher on my town list due to Des's push against him (despite Des's propensity for bussing, I find it unlikely he'd push for two mafia mates lynches in consecutive days?). In his favor he's been consistent in fairly minor details (that I think mafia would forget about - e.g. response to Thane/Dawn reactions to Csarmi's claim). I also don't like where he's saying there's no evidence that Thane pointed to the actual mafia team while saying look at this post where he mentioned roles that could be in the mafia team means that he knows what roles there are overall (when he also mentioned the roles that Town might have, and survivors...) Tee hee, just found where I made notes on the first 8 pages of the thread Des notes that Thane is trying to keep WIFOM around on the miller, yet later jumps on X (I think, I have to check this as he's not one of the ones I remember in this debate) for saying confirmed. Here the phrase 'wifom on the miller' to me the omittance of the word 'claimed' miller means the same thing. But I can't remember if Des actually joined thyis debate (although I did when I started making notes) and I know he'll just come back with hypocritical bleh.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > Des :Mafia

 

 

 

X/Dice

 

 

- Early town read on X because of his response to Turins case and his enthusiasm in pushing Tsuki (whose response I thought was scummy). Essentially X questioned Tsuki about him jumping on Chae for her 'could tell' 'could be telling' the truth statements. Followed up on it when Tsuki wasn't answering. Turin said that he said Csarmi was 'confirmed' miller, when he actually said 'all but confirmed'. His response to Turin explained why he thought Csarmi was 'all but confirmed' which Turin/Ithi didn't like because it didn't explain why he said 'confirmed' except he didn't say 'confirmed'... I haven't had the same read on Dice. He hasn't followed much through with conviction, but I struggle following Dice at all.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Des :Mafia

 

 

 

Lenlo

 

 

- the only thing I can recall strongly is that he nudged the train on Thane because of his 'scummy' reaction to the miller claim, but ignored Dawn's which was essentially identical, but came after the furore over Thanes initial reaction. (Incidentally this gave me a town lean on Dawn, as I think mafia would be more aware and avoid the same sort of reaction). Initial problem is that Thane flipped symp, however this was well before his 'sympathise' comment, and it's unlikely that mafia knew who the symp was that early in the game, if they knew at all, thus since Thane didn't flip mafia, his actions could be pushing a townies train, before knowing the townie was symp. His reads seem to be 'follow the crowd' rather than anything else, although I need to reread here. Just remembered, I'm pretty sure that Lenlo was pushing Ithi to claim Day 1 when she had no votes on her during the gladiator match, since I think he was reading her as town that made no sense to me.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Des > Lenlo :Mafia

 

 

 

Tina

 

 

- I remember some early posts when I thought she was Town, I think initially because she had the same reaction to X/Tsuki as I did. I don't recall much since then and Csarmi was right that her appearance/disappearance as one of the leading trains heading into deadline was bad (not being around at deadline because it's 3 in the morning is fine, but to disappear without any sort of claim is scummy).

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Des > Tina > Lenlo :Mafia

 

 

 

Pral

 

 

- I think I had an early town read on Pral, but I can't remember why. I don't recall much recent play and I'm always wary of any read on Pral

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Des > Tina > Lenlo :Mafia

 

???: Pral

 

 

 

Chae/Krak

 

 

- Early town read on Chae was because she seemed pretty relaxed on thread. I wasn't a fan of her reads list (hair? A read because of hair??) as I gave it an equal chance of being 'relaxed and unconcerned town' or 'giving no reads and hiding as mafia'. Was pushed into Town because of an early mafia read on Tsuki and I thought she responded well. I'm not as certain on my read of Krak, Scummiest thing from Chae/Krak is a combo Chae not shooting her mafia read and Krak revealing the target on thread (I've been shot once as Town doc by Des, who still thought me mafia with a BPV and was open about it, and once as a BG with a BPV by Hallia where she kept quiet about the shot, presumably realising the doc potential there). There are a bunch of reactions around this that seemed strange to me (key was Turin I think). There was something about someone saying that Chae was trying to breadcrumb Oracle as a role, then 'knew' that Dice would flip that way. I don't really understand the argument there. If you ignore that part though, I agree it's off that she's suggesting that Thane could have setup knowledge as a VT, but that makes no sense for either alignment, and in addition is before Thane's actually claimed VT (initially he said powerless, Miller could also be considered powerless) and well befor ethe symp comment, so Krak's point that Chae started defending Thane before she could have known he was symp is extremely valid. Something else that bothers me, Chae claimed JOAT on Day 2, so why would she have been blocked Night 1? This is making me extremely uneasy.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Chae/Krak > Des > Tina > Lenlo :Mafia

 

???: Pral

 

 

 

Tsuki

 

 

- This is split by interactions:

 

Tsuki/Chae - I still don't understand the difference between 'could be telling the truth' and 'could tell the truth' other than one's better English. You later go on to say that they mean the same, but could be read differently. Your way of handling it was 'off' as well, imo. You start off with a FoS and then seem to backtrack on the FoS, later referring to it as a clarification and not a FoS. At one stage you also say that her 'defending' of people made you shoot her in another game, when she was Town. It seems very strange that you bring up her town behaviour in another game and compare it to this one and call her mafia because of it (some people have the same meta either way, but to not even acknowledge that she may be town is what seems off).

 

Tsuki/X -

a - I don't like your turnaround on X asking you to explain here. X asks you a question, you ignore it a few times, he asks again, you answer and in the same post ask why he's so focused on a question that you weren't answering.

b - I find it extremely off that you were so caught up on Chaes wording earlier and then jump on X for saying that Csarmi was 'confirmed' when X actually said 'ALL BUT confirmed'.

c - I sympathise completely with the 'I didn't mean that statement, I meant the statement before' that became very hard to follow.

 

Tsuki/Thane -

Extremely early on I was very sure that Thane was mafia, and so the timing of your push on Chae seemed suspect. Given that Thane flipped symp, not QT mafia makes me rescind this completely. However your handling of Thane also seems 'off'. First you say he's 'off' his meta (no jokes), then vote him for being scummy, question Chae about defending him when he's off meta then turn around and question Ithi for accusing Thane based on behaviour that he does as town (or some such).

Thane has an absolutely awful reaction to Tsuki early on. Something like Tsuki says that 'Thane isn't joking around like normal' and Thanes response was 'to the person that said I was joking around, here's a joke'.

 

Tsuki/roles -

Has made at least 2 questionable assumptions about roles. I still don't get the point of saying mafia have a BG. This really does seem close to a bastard role, why not say a mafia doc or BPV? Then about Hallia's name... I don't understand the point you're trying to make (again :() We have proof that there is/was a governor role. You seem to be trying to use the fact that the pardon came from Queen Vic as a reason that Hallia s lying about her role. So either you're suggesting that Queen Vic would be a bad guy, or that someone else is Governor and Queen Vic, hasn't cC'd Hallia (although a 1-1 exchange for a none-investigative role is amazing), or??? I really don't understand what you were trying to say here.

 

Tsuki/Thane trains -

I initially thought that Tsuki was a counter train to Thane on Day 2, which 70% of the time would make me assume he was Town. However he was actually the counter to Hallia, towards end of day Des then started the train on Thane who was a counter to BOTH. I need to go through that again soon, but Day 2 in particular it's wifom as to how much mafia knew about Thane *sighs*

 

Tsuki/Hallia -

Answered for Hallia when Dice asked her about the shot/shots stuff

a - answering for somebody else always seems like a bad idea, and he got very defensive about it (comparatively Dice 1 had a great reaction to this, compared to Tsuki trying to brush X off in a similar situation earlier)

b - again, noticing the difference in words, so paying attention - but this makes me wonder about how easily he went along with the 'confirmed' thing.

 

Against this I have: Displayed 'WIM' with his collection of reads list (although until we find out if Tsuki prefers Town or Mafia I'm not sure that means much. Has displayed no fear about interacting with pretty much anyone, second is probably more important to me.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Chae/Krak > Des > Tina > Lenlo > Tsuki :Mafia

 

???: Pral

 

 

 

Turin

 

 

- Generally seems open about his reads, but something is making me uneasy Was the person that started the X 'confirmed' debate, but this could be due to reading quickly due to travel. Few very minor points, called Des/Lenlo out for use of word gimmicky, after they responded to a quote that Csarmi made in which he used it - so not sure what the point of it was. Think his read on me is the fairest out of everyone that's said they have a town read on me - when I thought Dice was going to CC Vanilla I thought the same thing. Slight Town, but if Des/Lenlo flipped mafia would look again, due to possible early distancing. There was also something strange from Des about Ithi/Turin early on, but I can't recall what, so was probably very minor.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Turin > Chae/Krak > Des > Tina > Lenlo > Tsuki :Mafia

 

???: Pral

 

 

 

Hallia

Csarmi

X/Dice

Turin

Chae/Krak

Pral

Des

Tina

Lenlo

Tsuki

 

I'm not happy with myself that I still don't have any strong reads, but only have myself to blame :(

 

Stuff that will affect this as I read through. NotBob and Ithi/Rags opinion from Day 2 onwards, the fact that they all seem to have the opposite interpretation to me has me thinking it's possible that my list is exactly the wrong way round Thane flipping as symp, although I've tried taking this into account, tbh without knowing how much h eknew about mafia, or how much mafia knew about him makes it difficult! Did mafia think he was Town (possibly try to White Knight him) or know he was mafia...

 

There are some specific things I'm looking out for, but more that I think I've forgotten. I plan on spending most of my time on Day 1, I tend to find that most important interactions are in Day 1 if you look with later flips.

 

I have some free time left tonight, but more tomorrow. I'll probably start posting as I go tho. The good news is that I've finally figured out how to split the screen on my tablet, so making notes as I go is suddenly a lot easier

 

For now [v]Tsuki[/v]

 

I've decided to help y'all out and spoiler it, since in word it's now verging on 7 pages

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

 

 

Vote count:

 

Csarmi (3): Len, Turin, Tsuki

pray (1): csarmi

Tsuki (2): Hally, BFG

Turin (1): des

Des (1): pray

Hally (1): dice

 

Not voting (2): Tina, Krak,

 

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

 

 

DL is Wed. Jul. 2nd at 9 PM EST.

 

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20140702T21&p0=422

[Turin Turambar]

BFG, It reads to me that your reading Csarmi as town based on meta and thinking that the miller role is definitely in the game. You do list a fair number of things you would not expect a miller to be doing since they really need to try to look as town as possible in order to have a chance to live long enough to be confirmed through another means. I am a bit troubled by the fact there are ways in the game to mechanically clear a Miller role. It seems to me to nullify the role's purpose. I guess we can disagree on that tho.

 

About Hallia's role. Let me argue the other side of the coin with you as saying it is a mafia governor. Town is rolled up pretty strong. Having the ability to save a teammate basically forcing a second lynch is a fairly powerful thing. It could make up for having a symp instead of another full member. What would you think the distribution should be if there is a mafia governor? (3+1? etc...) Also the Gladiator was town so it could be said that the governor was there to counter the lynch if the gladiator got it right. Maybe I am wanting to be right but it still looks fishy to me. Her words and actions around the 1v1 don't sit well with me. 

 

Finally for now as I need to get ready to run some errands as am going on another long drive tomorrow. You mentioned my read on your CC. I didn't quite understand what you meant. Also the thing brought up by Despo was that Ithi sort of called me out for making a weak case against X but she was IMO more wondering why X didn't think I was making a bad case. He just kind of caved that it was okay. 

 

That will be all for the next few hours. Hopefully I get to give a few more thoughts before sleeping tonight.

[Tsukibana]

LOL.

 

Bring it.

[dicetosser1]

 

 

So why didn't he get killed night 1? Ithi had claimed. Mafia knew it was true. No way that mafia really thought they would get her lynched. I think the Dice 1.0 shot was pure luck. No I think that mafia thought Holmes HAD to be the cop and were searching for him.

 

Pretty sure that neither Tina or Lenlo are getting lynched today without some sort of result to point the way. But by all means make a case.

Lenlo isn't commenting on anything but me or defending himself if need be.

 

Tina dropped in yesterday with a scumtastic reasoning, dropped off w/o adding more as top candidate and asked that she don't understand why she was being voted.

 

Plus Thane spew (random lurker thing).

 

Well it has been about you for much of the past day plus. Has he taken a stand on you? 

 

Tina's train to me was mainly based around assuming Thane had spewed her mafia. I don't think that is a very strong case. Especially when it was being made by the leading vote getter. That is why the miller will always work against you. If holmes had a role cop ability it is too bad you couldn't get peeked early and confirmed if you were town. Dice could have even asked if there was a miller in the game. It would have resolved the issue and THEN you would have really been confirmed.

 

In the game you mentioned where Tinker spewed his team there was also a load of similar thought processes and cross defense that linked the mafia together. That added to the spewage established a more probable cause situation .

 

 

considering i started the Tina train i will say kit was based on something else.

 

miller was going to be my second question.

[Turin Turambar]

What was your Tina case again Dice? I really don't remember.

 

Well you got killed early so probably wouldn't have mattered anyway.

 

I am off to sleep now. i will be on the road for the next 3 days so will be intermittent. 

[dicetosser1]

it wasnt really a case.  it was more like a prod to try and get her talking. I just ended up not being real happy with her answers.

[BFG]

BFG, It reads to me that your reading Csarmi as town based on meta and thinking that the miller role is definitely in the game. You do list a fair number of things you would not expect a miller to be doing since they really need to try to look as town as possible in order to have a chance to live long enough to be confirmed through another means. I am a bit troubled by the fact there are ways in the game to mechanically clear a Miller role. It seems to me to nullify the role's purpose. I guess we can disagree on that tho.

 

About Hallia's role. Let me argue the other side of the coin with you as saying it is a mafia governor. Town is rolled up pretty strong. Having the ability to save a teammate basically forcing a second lynch is a fairly powerful thing. It could make up for having a symp instead of another full member. What would you think the distribution should be if there is a mafia governor? (3+1? etc...) Also the Gladiator was town so it could be said that the governor was there to counter the lynch if the gladiator got it right. Maybe I am wanting to be right but it still looks fishy to me. Her words and actions around the 1v1 don't sit well with me.  I do need to reread the 1 v 1.

 

Finally for now as I need to get ready to run some errands as am going on another long drive tomorrow. You mentioned my read on your CC. I didn't quite understand what you meant. Also the thing brought up by Despo was that Ithi sort of called me out for making a weak case against X but she was IMO more wondering why X didn't think I was making a bad case. He just kind of caved that it was okay. 

 

That will be all for the next few hours. Hopefully I get to give a few more thoughts before sleeping tonight.

Quick response before work.

 

Csarmi/miller - I tend to dislike emotional play in general, but that doesn't make it scummy. Csarmi's reaction to people not believing his claim is how I think a Town Csarmi would react, based on dead thread chat from other games where he's died early. The hammer and his reaction to Tina 'hammering' makes me uneasy, but it's very rare in mafia to agree 100% with someone. I don't have as strong a read on him as Hallia. Part of the read also comes from not trusting all the people pushing for his lynch. I want to go look for a mafia game of his to see if that changes anything. As for the role thing, eh, we've just had a game where the cop negates the ST and the LD negates the GF...

 

Re. Governor I think 3 + 1 in a game where the roles that we've had haven't been weak would be very hard for mafia to win. If Csarmi was lynched or killed anyway that would probably lead to Hallia lynch as well, so although it might have gained them a night, it doesn't bring them a day closer to winning (excluding chance of stray vig shots) and actually could 'out' a hidden member (similar to a mafia BG), if Hallia hadn't openly claimed, yet having 4 + 1 makes it hard for Town, and I think a mafia governor would be too strong in that scenario. But read on Hallia isn't just claim based.

 

Your read on me - a lot of people have said they believe me because of my cc. But unfortunately I've been absent too much for anyone to have a strong town read on me for my play, your read seems to take that into account.

 

Re X, I read it as he responded to you and was waiting for a response from you. Bunch of people jumped on him because his response didn't answer the 'confirmed' question, and the discussion got side tracked from there. But from what I remember he explained what he actually seemed to be saying and left the ball in your court. I'll hopefully get through Day 1 today so will be able to update this later.

[BFG]

LOL.

 

Bring it.

Nice ;)

 

How about we start with you explaining how 'could tell the truth' could mean or be read as anything other than 'could be telling the truth'?

[Tsukibana]

 

LOL.

 

Bring it.

Nice ;)

 

How about we start with you explaining how 'could tell the truth' could mean or be read as anything other than 'could be telling the truth'?

 

Could tell the truth - is CAPABLE of telling the truth but not necessarily is going to. Indicates a FUTURE action "He could tell the truth about what his role is (but he might not, as well)"

Could be be telling the truth - is saying something that I believe is true. Indicates a presently occurring action  "He could be telling the truth about what his role is (and I believe what he is saying)"

 

It doesn't get clearer than that. But as I said, Chae responded the correct way (IMO) - she didn't get defensive, and let it go. X, on the other hand, jumped into "knight" mode and pulled a one-shot minor read question and turned it into a stupid spiel that I had fun with, until le thunderdome of derpness.

If you are still stuck on this, maybe I should move YOU down in my reads...

[hazelkrs1]

Okay first of all [/unvote]

 

I forgot about Turin being targeted by Chae/Krak's shot. Unless those two are scum together, which I highly doubt, then Turin is pretty much LOCK CLEAR again.

 

Now, the main reason I voted Turin was it seemed to me he was being too stubborn in his read on Csarmi, not being willing to change it whatsoever even tho Csarmi was wigging out in a way that would be both difficult to fake as scum AND would require Csarmi to be pretty slimy since he even talked about his health problems a good bit- I just don't see him as scum trying to use his health issues as a way to garner sympathy or affect a game in any way

 

Anyways, I just started my spewhunt, and after looking over NotBob's posts it does seem possible that Turin is convinced NotBob viewed Csarmi as some kind of non-miller role, I think I remember him doing a NotBob spew post a while ago. Not all that likely tho imo, and in any case we would only have one investigation from NotBob that he may have left hints regarding, so eh.

 

Here's what I found tho:

 

I shook the Magic 8-ball...

 

Vote Thrax/Dice 2.0

 

Thoughts?

 

This was his first vote Day 2, so I thought there might be something here, but later on NotBob explains this vote so this likely isn't any hint

 

 

For those who collect this sorta data...here you go...

 

1. Thrax/Dice 2.0 is mafia
2. Len is town
3. Dawn/NotBob is town
4. Mynd, Wiggins, Town 1-shot Gladiator, lynched D1
5. Tina is town
6. Turin is town
7. Despo is town
8. Hallia is town
9. Chae is mafia
10. Ithi is town
11. Thane is mafia
12. Tsuki is town
13. Dice, Toby the Dog, Town 2-shot Oracle, killed N1
14. Charis/BFG is town
15. Pral is town
16. Salami is town

 

 

Emphasized his scum reads, any of these could have been a hint but the one that stands out to me is the Chae read- he doesn't talk much about that read anymore after this, so eh. He does act pretty confident that Thane is scum later in the day, which could be nothing since Thane looked like obvscum earlier in the game imo, and the Chae read could be associative on that

 

I also emphasized the Salami read, he says town here...

 

unvote vote Thane

 

csarmi most likely scum  could vote him as well

 

But says Csarmi most likely scum here. Doesn't look like a hint to me, looks a lot more like a read developed during the day

 

 

for the record..... i doubt there's a single mafia on Tsuki's train right now.

 

roflmao

 

 

Just quoted one of the posts like these- NotBob def seemed very confident in Thane's scumminess

 

 

Notbob, what do you think of Tsuki?

 

I went back and reviewed the vote count...looks like scum to you eh?

 

I'd rather eliminate Thane first.  Care to join?

 

interested to hear what Ithi's replacement has to say...replacements always change the dynamics...why I suspect Thrax/Dice2.0 were scum...any reads there?

 

 

Here's where he explains his earlier Dice 2.0 vote and scumread, so almost definitely not a hint there

 

Conclusion: Not much help here, imo. If he viewed anyone N1 that helped him it was likely Thane, so yeahhhh I don't think he left us any "hints" as to viewings that could help us out

 

On to Ithi/Rags spew

[hazelkrs1]

[unvote]

[hazelkrs1]

Rags spew (I left Ithi out since she was mainly only active on D1, if I'm not mistaken she replaced out before really saying much D2 at all):

 

Well, I'm trying to read through people but it's a pain until someone reminds me how to solo search for a person's posts.  Did a search of everything involving Lenlo which is giving me a bit of a feel for things so far even though it involves a lot of other people's posts.

 

Such as Chae voting Len for no discernible reason and evidently trying to get people away from Thane.  Thane being loltastic.  Early townie lean on Lenlo.  And Des is pregnant.

 

 

Just finished Lenlo.  Townie lean, Thane and Chae have been his top two pretty consistently, seems to be trying to solve the game.  I did notice the fence sitting, but it came across as a townie who trusts his reads more than a scum acting like they are just so distraught.

 

Working on Chaelca right now as both you and Len have named her as top scum suspect.

 

So Mynd did the gladiator?  That...is hilarious.

 

On Hallia...was she pushed into claiming that or was it out of nowhere?  And how did she act once she claimed?

Why notbob?

 

The fact that his first two posts in the game he reiterates a town lean on Lenlo could be a hint of a Lenlo viewing... another explanation tho could be that he focused on Lenlo first for the reasons he gave- that Chae voting Lenlo for no reason looked weird and stuff.

 

Got through Turin.  Townie lean, but I just have this bad juju feel.  Dunno how to put my finger on it.

 

The wording of this seemed a bit odd to me, could have been a hint left behind... plus I also could see Ithi viewing Turin N1 since D1 she was still wary of him and I can see her wanting to make sure on her bonded

 

So for the N1 viewing I see it being either Turin or Lenlo

 

 

What about your "results" Rags?

Absolutely no reason for me to give out anything right now. 

 

 

This was during D3, Rags never seemed to leave any hints before this and this post seems to support that, that he hadn't hinted at it yet

 

Back and doing a bit more reading.  I'm really skeptical of some of the people on Tina.  Looking through Csarmi, Chrak and Pray again

 

This is the first time he's brought up Pray as a scumread, never mentioned him before this

 

Both.  Skeptical of Csarmi's claim, Krak considering how Chae acted, and Pray defended Csarmi's 'work' and said she thinks Chrak is town.  As for the train itself, I think it is trying to take advantage of Tina (supposedly) simply not being able to be as active.

 

This reasoning could have been the justification for the Pray read...

 

[v]Prayala[/v]

 

Believes Csarmi with little questioning that I saw.

Some of her read changes are all over the place with odd reasoning imo.  Goes from Hallia is scum to town to Thane prolly expected Hallia to save him, Chae as mafia to believing Krak cause he claimed to be RBed.

Thane as town.

Reason to vote mynd is expended gladiator.

Weird comments about how Len should have named 4 scum.

All over Tina because this hasn't been a town Tina but gives no explanation.

 

Here he votes Pray and gives a little case on him

 

Next post is SUPER significant tho imo

 

 

 

[v]Prayala[/v]

 

 

 

How is this vote Pro-Town this close to DL? Do you believe you can get him lynched?

 

Not necessarily, prolly won't keep my vote there the whole time as CS or Chrak are the two viable options imo.  I did want to get it on the record though.

 

 

So Tsuki challenges Rags on the Pray vote, not too long before deadline, and with the last bit I feel Rags was trying to hit us over the head with making it clear it was a hint- I am TOTALLY sold on Rags viewing Pray as scum N2 now

 

[v]Pray[/v]

 

Incidentally, this fits moar with my new view of the thread- Csarmi now seems to be town to me, so Tsuki looked scummy for his hardcore and antagonistic push against Csarmi. Add to that that he defends Pray out of nowhere, and I can def see a Pray/Tsuki scum pairing. Also add to that that my strongest town read in the game, BFG, put out a pretty good case on Tsuki being scum

 

As for the last slot... well I wanna view Thane spew myself (not right now, need to try and scramble to get caught up in other games in the less than 15 mins I have left), but Csarmi may have been right about Thane spewing Tina as his scummate with his "random" choosing of her. She also seemed a bit opportunistic in questioning my Turin vote, but eh that could be OMGUS. Still wary of Hallia too, even with a Csarmi town read, as I don't think using it on a teammate would have worked as well (what if there's someone saving a 1X Vig shot for when they REALLY know who scum might be?) once it was so out in the open

 

Regardless, I think we should lynch Pray and Tsuki now, they're easily my top two candidates for scum.

[Basel Gill]

Vote count:

 

Csarmi (3): Len, Turin, Tsuki

pray (2): csarmi, Des

Tsuki (2): Hally, BFG

Des (1): pray

Hally (1): dice

 

Not voting (2): Tina, Krak

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

DL is Wed. Jul. 2nd at 9 PM EST.http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20140702T21&p0=422

[Pralaya]

Heh, when I started reading Des going back to NotBob's posts, I knew the whole plan is to eventually end up voting me. It was that obvious.

 

You can read my replies to Csarmi on the same vote by Rags. It doesn't even make sense if you look at how Rags tries to "put on record" a scum view at the final few hours of the day. Clearly, he was giving his read there.

 

Des is all over the place and is lock scum here. Trying to piggyback on Csarmi's analysis and using the same to vote me after realising that nobody is going to vote Turin. 

[Niniel]

I went back to check my old notes and I see that my thoughts hasn´t changed much. I guess that is because we never got a lynch yesterday. It´s easier to evaluate my thoughts when getting confirmed alignments. 

 

 

People that I feel strongly about:

 

Tina - town

 

BFG - I don´t agree with her reads but the way she cc´d Thane on D1 still makes me think she is town. 

 

Turin - I have had a town feeling about him all game. Town

 

Tsuki - I didn´t like him at all in the beginning but after he compared all the lists I changed my mind. He is going after people that I´m suspicious of as well. Town.

 

Krak - Mafia. I don´t understand why he seems to be forgotten. Or I don´t see the reason why he would be town. Reminding everyone again about Chae´s play: defending Thane, making that weird list, claimed a strong pr but selfvoting (a role that Thane listed as a mafia role) and Thane defended her. 

 

Lenlo - Mafia. Some of the resons: The exchange with Ithi when he threathened to FOS her if she said that he overreacted (looks like he knew she was town), something about three mafia members (actually that is something that I found in my notes and I don´t remember what if means but I´m writing it down anyway) and his tunelling on Csarmi. Turin and Tsuki is also tunelling Csarmi in a way but they still comment others as well. 

 

 

 

People that I don´t have much oppinions on (people that I should read more about) and thus is null:

 

Pral - I don´t know about NotBob´s hint/not hint. I´m on the fence because 1) it actually looks like he is giving a clear signal of Pral but 2) by stating it so clear wouldn´t it be a signal to mafia as well? Why would he? Why not say that he found mafia or be quiet about it until the next day?  I need to think about this more. Other than this I don´t remember much about Pral at all.

 

Des - his Turin vote was strange but now he unvoted him. That is the only thing that has stood out to me. I can´t remember much about his play at all. 

 

Dice - he has gone after me in a strange way but that is the only thing that has stood out to me. I never understood the case on X from day one. 

 

 

And now to Csarmi and Hally: 

 

My read on Hally changed during the game. My meta read on her says that she wouldn´t claim like that if she was mafia but she hasn´t showed any signs of scumhunting. Her votes on Tsuki from yesterday was weird. She voted him, realised that she had misunderstood him, unvoted him but followed Csarmi when he voted Tsuki. Today she has just parked her vote there again. I think it was a bad decision to save Csarmi. Well, good for them if both are mafia.

 

Csarmi: It´s the same with him. I believed his claim at first but he hasn´t played good at all and I really don´t understand why he would selfvote but then fight for his life again if town. Turin has had some good points against him. The one thing that is troubling me is that Lenlo is tunelling so on Csarmi since I have Lenlo as mafia.

 

 

Vote Csarmi

 

 

I think it´s a good chance that he is mafia but getting his alignment would help even if he is town. His flip will help with my read on at least Hally and Lenlo. If Csarmi is mafia then I think the case for Hally gets stronger and Lenlo´s gets weaker. The opposite if Csarmi is town. 

 

 

 

[Niniel]

Oops, pressed post too soon. As I have mentioned before, I´m certainly willing to vote Krak. He is my strongest mafia read but no one else seems to agree with me. I would love to hear people´s thoughts about him. 

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

 

Vote count:

 

Csarmi (4): Len, Turin, Tsuki, Tina

pray (2): csarmi, Des

Tsuki (2): Hally, BFG

Des (1): pray

Hally (1): dice

 

Not voting (1): Krak

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

 

DL is Wed. Jul. 2nd at 9 PM EST.

 

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20140702T21&p0=422

[csarmi]

Misrep much?

 

Selfvote and fight?

 

Also, I "played bad"?

[csarmi]

I love the classic "even if is town it would give good info".

 

Pray tell me what kind of info, Tina.