[Advanced] French Revolution Mafia - Day 3

[Hallia]

H'ok, so 4 pages in and these are my thoughts (I hope this is better oh mentor-mine!)

 

Early on, Despo took a deeper look into people's mentioning of being hungry/bread etc, and tried to find scum out of it.  He must be better than I am, because they all look like just little joke votes to me.

 

Peace was the first person to mention what ended up being pages of WIFOM, regarding whether or not scum was included in the starving.  But the way he did it leads me to believe he is town.  I think if he were scum he probably would've steered away from role pm discussion (on the grounds of maybe not giving anything away if the scum pm is different?)  And then a couple of posts later when Thorum starts discussing it further, he even notes that the discussion will just create WIFOM.  He seems keen on keeping the levels down, and so I have a town feeling on him thus far.

 

Continuing onward!

 

is this where we spam to keep the bread flowing?

 

All I can see is 

[Hallia]

 

Peace

 

For keeping on pushing about this non-issue, hoping for a reveal. Which would ONLY be advantageous for mafia.

 

What reveal?

 

And I really mean that: if the famine wasn't mentioned in your pm, and you're a townie: come out and say so.  It would make the basel-case kinda moot.

 

Speaking of reveals...

 

AJ makes a very good point here with Thorum voting peace for 'hoping for a reveal' an hour after asking people to reveal? Hrm.

 

 

Yates:  It seems a lot of the early debate between you two is kind of a moot point now, with Dap popping in with the clearing up of the question over who has famine.

 

Also, I keep seeing 'Occam's Razor' pop up in games, I should probably go google that to see what it is.

[Yates]

Early on, Despo took a deeper look into people's mentioning of being hungry/bread etc, and tried to find scum out of it.  He must be better than I am, because they all look like just little joke votes to me.

Yes.

 

Peace was the first person to mention what ended up being pages of WIFOM, regarding whether or not scum was included in the starving.  But the way he did it leads me to believe he is town.

YES.

 

I think if he were scum he probably would've steered away from role pm discussion (on the grounds of maybe not giving anything away if the scum pm is different?)

YES!!!

 

 

is this where we spam to keep the bread flowing?

 

All I can see is 

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

So close to a PERFECT post! I kind of have a little tear in my eye, actually. This is probably the best post you've written to date. Don't minimize your efforts with silly kitty cat pics. But whatever. Yates likes.

 

Also, I keep seeing 'Occam's Razor' pop up in games, I should probably go google that to see what it is.

Please do.

[Yates]

Good luck getting Hallia to engage into anything seriously in mafia

Tell me that wasn't the best post you've seen from Hallia...

 

[hazelkrs1]

Just know that there are two definitions you'll generally see for Occam's Razor- one wrong and one right.

 

The one often quoted and referenced is "All things being equal, the simplest answer tends to be the correct one", which is actually a misrepresentation of the theorem. I've been yelled at with cries of "semantics!" time and time again, but I care not for I genuinely believe the theorem is used incorrectly far too often.

 

The accurate definition of the theorem is "Among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis that makes the fewest assumptions should be the one selected". The reason this makes sense is that when you are trying to create a proof of something, you want to use whichever methods have the least bit of variable to them. It's much easier to "vet" a theory if there are less "what ifs" that can make the results of the study or experiment go askew.

 

Here's another part of the problem- it is probably most often referenced nowadays in situations like philosophical discussions, or debates, or detective novels and such. But that's not what the theorem was created for- it was created for use by mathematicians and statisticians. It honestly isn't really that effective when dealing with trying to solve some kind of puzzle, as some of the biggest and most groundbreaking ideas used in the modern world came from making giant leaps of faith (for instance Einstein's Relativity).

 

As far as in mafia, I think it's even less applicable. A game that at it's roots revolves around deception uses theorems like Occam's Razor and completely flips them on their heads. Finding the hidden scum often requires going through several different assumption about possible connections and ploys and miriads of potential scenarios. Trying to always go for the simplest explanation would be trying to reduce the game to something simple itself, which it is not.

 

Granted, it's still important not to make too many assumptions, as you can build your whole theory of who the scum might be on a house of cards that can all fall down with the wrong flip, so it's important to be open-minded. But at the end of the day, most lynches aren't determined by a very exact science, it has more to do with a number of complex interactions between a number of players. So looking for any and all connections between players is still important, and thinking ahead to how someone's flip might change things is an important part of the info-gathering stage in mafia games.

[hazelkrs1]

 

Good luck getting Hallia to engage into anything seriously in mafia

Tell me that wasn't the best post you've seen from Hallia...

 

 

 

 

Uh, well I hate to burst you and Hallia's bubble, since I'm sure you are high-fiving eachother on your QT('s), but yeah here was my reaction to Hallia's post-

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrZWPcEAz1M

 

It essentially just summarized a bunch of what's happened in the 14 ( ) pages of gameplay so far, and gives out one town read on a player (Peace). Right after she parrots something AJ said about Thorum, who I have a town read on right now.

 

So at this point in the game, she has sniped a couple of people (Mish, Thorum), given one town read, and one summary post. Yep, looks like same ol Hallia to me. Sorry if that makes me sound like an asshole. But it's not too difficult to come up with a summary type post and one town read. I'm more concerned with who she actually thinks could be scum, without just coattailing on something someone else says on someone.

[Yates]

Sorry if that makes me sound like an asshole.

 

For Hallia? This *is* progress, dude. You're just being contrarian to be a douche.

[Yates]

As far as in mafia, I think it's even less applicable.

:lol: You claim you know what Occam's Razor is.

You quote the CORRECT version of Occam's Razor.

Then you come to THIS conclusion?

 

What a travesty.

 

"Among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis that makes the fewest assumptions should be the one selected." As you note:

Granted, it's still important not to make too many assumptions, as you can build your whole theory of who the scum might be on a house of cards that can all fall down with the wrong flip, so it's important to be open-minded.

Not applicable in our argument - because I know what it actually means - people have taken the more lazy, broad, and incorrect approach to defining Occam's Razor the way Des phrased it - "All things being equal, the simplest answer tends to be the correct one"

 

This bastardized version is also applicable, but generally only in assisting with validation of setup spec, role claims, and night actions. [At least for me]

[peacesells]

*eyesglazeover*

[peacesells]

OR discussion is dumb.  AND neither of you are applying it right.

 

It is a method to arrive at an answer.  Not the solution itself.

 

"It states that among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be selected."

 

Then discarded once proven untrue and then you move on to the next hypothesis with the fewest assumptions.

 

It really just tells you were to start.  It gives no value to that starting position...meaning that starting position is not more likely to be the answer than any other hypothesis. 

[hazelkrs1]

 

Sorry if that makes me sound like an asshole.

 

For Hallia? This *is* progress, dude. You're just being contrarian to be a douche.

 

 

Whoa whoa now who's disparaging her play.

 

I've never tried to insinuate that Hallia is a bad player, or someone who "needs progress". On the contrary, I've seen several games where her intuition was amazingly accurate as town, and she's generally good at staying under the radar as scum. The problem I have with Hallia is that her playstyle makes her nigh impossible to read, by sniping every so often and fluffing and coasting her way through the rest. Granted, this probably benefits her, as being difficult to read means she's less likely to get caught as scum. But when she's town it makes it incredibly inconvenient for other townies in her game who would want to clear her off their suspects list. And because of this, and because she often doesn't vocalize her support for a lynch on one of her reads very strongly, her words often don't carry much weight with the rest of town so her great intuition ends up not being that effective.

 

I have seen Hallia post better scumhunting type posts than that tho. It's not a matter of if she is capable, I already knew that she was. I just try pushing her to see if she'll eventually start getting more active in the scumhunt, so that she can broadcast her towniness and also get others to follow her reads more often. And, as scum, I think being more active would make it more difficult for her, but that would make the times she won as scum that much more impressive. Sorry, but I don't much care for it when a scum team wins by pretty much laying low and coasting the whole game. It might be a somewhat effective strategy, but it's more a victory of attrition and not some stunning power play by brilliant minds working together.

 

 

As far as in mafia, I think it's even less applicable.

:lol: You claim you know what Occam's Razor is.

You quote the CORRECT version of Occam's Razor.

Then you come to THIS conclusion?

 

What a travesty.

 

"Among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis that makes the fewest assumptions should be the one selected." As you note:

Granted, it's still important not to make too many assumptions, as you can build your whole theory of who the scum might be on a house of cards that can all fall down with the wrong flip, so it's important to be open-minded.

Not applicable in our argument - because I know what it actually means - people have taken the more lazy, broad, and incorrect approach to defining Occam's Razor the way Des phrased it - "All things being equal, the simplest answer tends to be the correct one"

 

This bastardized version is also applicable, but generally only in assisting with validation of setup spec, role claims, and night actions. [At least for me]

 

 

You cut out the part of the quote that came right after however. When looking for good lynch targets, of course you have to try and prepare for the future, after however they flip. This requires making the kinds of links and connections that you both condemn and use yourself, which are basically assumptions in and of themselves. Alternatively for mafia, when they are trying to plan their NK, it is almost never wise to go for the most obvious, or simplest solution. Making the least amount of assumptions would mean not assuming that someone's PR hint was actually designed to draw a NK from someone else, when really that would most likely be the best move.

 

And again, the solution to a puzzle as complex as many mafia games will rarely be one you arrive to quickly without having to make many assumptions. Trying to oversimplify things is like trying to take shortcuts, and that can turn out to be disastrous. Which is why I don't like discounting the possibility of anything in mafia, no matter how far fetched it might be.

 

OR discussion is dumb.  AND neither of you are applying it right.

 

It is a method to arrive at an answer.  Not the solution itself.

 

"It states that among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be selected."

 

Then discarded once proven untrue and then you move on to the next hypothesis with the fewest assumptions.

 

It really just tells you were to start.  It gives no value to that starting position...meaning that starting position is not more likely to be the answer than any other hypothesis. 

 

Actually in the longer post I did on OR I did start to talk about what you pointed out, how really OR is the first step in someone trying to prove a theorem or perform analysis or something, but I edited it out cause I thought I was already starting to get long winded in that post.

 

My point is it's just not very effective in a situation that is kind of meant to be complex, as mafia is.

[Yates]

My point is it's just not very effective in a situation that is kind of meant to be complex, as mafia is.

Ok. Point made. This has been fun. Moving on...

[John E. Kelley]

Wtf is this nerd shit?

[michellem]

Ok enough with the off-topic Occams Razor discussion. Start a new topic if you guys wanna discuss how it relates to mafia, because right now you're just going off topic from what we're here to do.

 

 

1. Your reasons are only good at face value. You say that you see it as me linking myself to a townie, I say that I see it as you slipping for calling me scum and Hallia town without any kind of flip to justify this. Dead horse or not, it's something I will keep in mind when I look at your play as I'm sure you will with me.

 

2. Yates was able to pick up on what I was getting at, as I was with him when he pointed it out originally. I easily understood that he was referring to your 'dead by D4' thing which was obvious to anyone with it in their role PM considering we were told we died when we ran out of bread and were given 3 pieces.

 

3. For Lily, I'm going to refer you back to my early post where I FoS'd her. Typically, I don't like people that I am suspect of joining a wagon I'm on. I also wasn't exactly thrilled with her post when she joined your wagon. It makes me second guess on the original person gaining votes.

 

4. Your opinion on him is subjective and applies to how you view his posts only. What do you think of him originally voting you btw? You never addressed this that I remember.

 

 

1. Let's go over this again then:

 

If you are town, you don't know Hallia's alignement. You see her agreeing with you in one post, wich might be her being mafia and buddying you. You should know this. And yet you choose to tie yourself to her like you did. Wich is a stupid move if you are town, because if she's mafia it might reflect badly on you, and why would you choose to risk that as town? You are a smarter player than that.

 

If you are both mafia, creating such a strong connection between each other D1 is also a very stupid move. The other part will get heat when/if one of you gets lynched. Again, you are smarter than this. I've just seen you as mafia, and you didn't pull stupid moves like that with your teammates, you were were careful to keep distance from them.

 

If you are mafia and Hallia is town, it makes all the sense in the world for you to tie yourself to her, as I've already explained.

 

So that is why I presumed you to be mafia and Hallia to be town and accused you thus, because the other two scenarios doesn't fit with how I know you as a player.

 

3. You never mentioned second-guessing me before Yates gave you an out to do so.

 

4. Makes sense for Des to vote me originally. He's unusually paranoid when it comes to me. He also did the townie-move of moving his vote onwards as things happened, instead of parking it.

 

 

 

 

Lily, ok, fair enough. What are you thinking now after a few pages of back and forth?
 

I'm still watching, to be honest. I am very sympathetic to your illness and moodiness because of it, so I have to see past that. 

 

 

You've never shown that you've let that bother you in earlier games... I'm moody in general wether or not I'm ill, so do feel free to look past that.

 

 

 

Ish- there is absolutely no way for you to be certain she's town, typical Ishy cockiness. Please explain your reasoning, though I'm sure you'll refuse with some "witty" retort. We've now spent 2 pages off on this tangent. Keep applying pressure here, we've hit scum.

 

How can you call it a tangent, if you think it's found mafia? Also, how about you sir comment on some specifics that's been going on since you last posted. Like my reply to your post. Or just anything. Because now it seems like you are posting just for the sake of looking like you're participating ;)

 

I think the tangent of how many rolls people have is a tangent. You said 3, just like the wiki, then spiked the football like you'd scored some actual points. There's nothing else to discuss there. Your reply to my post was devoid of actionable content, if it had changed my mind about you I would have unvoted. Ishy's defense of you only makes me want to vote you more cause he came out of left field aggressively. Seems like you jumped on the QT and asked for some help. 

 

 

Lol spiked the football? What does that mean? Have you seen me go and boast that I should get town cred for what I said?

 

Also, you haven't played with Ishy enough if you don't know that he'll defend his friends hardcore no matter his alignement and their alignement. Wich you should know from the Walking Dead game, where I was town and he defended me pretty hardcore. So how you can take that as a scumtell saying anything about me... Meh. Besides, I've played enough that I don't need to run into a QT to ask for help if I had one; I'm a big girl and I can look after myself.

 

You on the other hand, are tunneling. How about you give some opinions about the other people posting too, instead of just tunneling on me, or calling people scum because they don't see me the same way you do.

[Basel Gill]

 

 

 

I suppose I should clear up that I did get the bread and starving stuff in my PM, but AJ's post about starving came so soon after dinnertime that it reminded me more of what I'd just eaten for real. I'll check back in tonight.

 

I'm still feeling strongest about Thorum and Peace (in that order of stronger feel first.)

Lol that must've been a good dinner. Are these town or scum reads?

 

Scum reads. On a scale of 1-10, 10 being certain that someone is scum, I would call Thorum a 9 and Peace a 7.

 

 

Can you explain why? I don't know Thorum that well but his posts are logical and make sense to me. I'm also reading Peace as town.

 

Thorum has been quick to hop to my defense. I'm thinking he took note of a player taking some early heat, judged them as a likely D1 lynch, and called them town in order to look good when that player flipped. (Deciding who would be lynched in the first day or two of D1, while lots of people are still in RVS, is odd in itself.) Peace has seemed opportunistic in his following the train on me.

[michellem]

How about everything else that's been going on, Basel? What's your opinon on myself, Des, AJ, Lily, Yates, Golden...?

[Hallia]

 

 

 

is this where we spam to keep the bread flowing?

 

All I can see is 

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

So close to a PERFECT post! I kind of have a little tear in my eye, actually. This is probably the best post you've written to date. Don't minimize your efforts with silly kitty cat pics. But whatever. Yates likes.

 

 

^Er, well, I destroyed your post Yates. XD  But at the end of the day, like Lily says about reading past Mish's moodiness, I'm going to always post cat pictures (metaphorically)  I'm working on getting my reads out there and being a better player, but I will still maintain my sunshine and rainbows disposition.

[Basel Gill]

How about everything else that's been going on, Basel? What's your opinon on myself, Des, AJ, Lily, Yates, Golden...?

I'm going to need to do some ISO readings for that, which I've been holding off on doing while Cindy is here so I can spend time with her. (ISOing multiple peeps takes a ridiculously long time.) I should be able to get to that later on today.

 

On the "town slip". It's a null tell. The wiki article the mod provided states all players start with 3 loaves.

 

So I don't think her statement is an identifiable remark either way.

Why are you so quick to assume that Dap has designed this game to be exactly how the baker role works on the wiki, without making his own modifications? The wiki article says that all players have three loaves, but that doesn't mean that all players in this game have three loaves. (For the record, I have three loaves.)

[Andrej]

Basel... Why make a statement like that and then immediately try to clear yourself from it?

 

Edit: phone posting

[keyholder21]

 

Official Vote Count:

 

Yates (1) - Hallia

Basel (1) - peace

Thorum (2) - Yates, Basel

Mish (3) - AJ, lily, golden

Elf (1) - Thorum

Lily (2) - Mish, Ishy

AJ (1) - des

 

Not Voting (4) - elf, wombat, GF, pral

 

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

 

Deadline:http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20140107T09&p0=22&msg=Day+1

 

A deadline is now in effect.

[keyholder21]

<MODSPEAK:>

 

 

I AM CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR A REPLACEMENT FOR WOMBAT

 

 

<END MODSPEAK>

[WWWwombat]

Sorry guise :(

[John E. Kelley]

</3

[Graendals favourite]

[LilyElizabeth]

I'm still getting a mafia vibe from Mish and Basel. (I take a lot of heat for being an instinctive, rather than a logical, player, but that's what I feel.)

 

I can go either way on Des and Yates. Ishy, too, for that matter. 

 

And guys, the WOTs are bad enough, but when they aren't even game related, that's way too much. Didn't read. Don't care. Please don't. Thx.