CAUTION: Super Spoiler Prologue discussion; Leave the cops out of it :)

[Neophyte]

She could've left 20 Kin, and the shadow would've send more assassins and killed even more of them, no? It's always easy playing Captain Hindsight. The idea of having regular reports, is just exactly in the case that the other side becomes incapable of reporting back, and(In real life situations) to make sure the guards aren't sleeping on the job. We have no idea how regular a report is required, so stating that it doesn't help seems to be rather premature.

 

And as you are so continently not mentioning, is the fact that nobody expected the invasion to hit straight in the middle of Caemlyn. Everybody assumed it would be an invasion coming on from the north of Andor, yet another reason as to why the system implemented is more than sufficient.

 

@Ian Ohlander

 

We know she used Kinswomen to scout on the Borderland army when it was camped outside the border, it's not that far fetched to imagine that they are still stationed at certain points across the border.

 

It is much more difficult to kill 20 Kinswomen before they can get a report out, especially if they are not all kept in a single location and a few are strong enough to make gateways on their own. And while we don't know the schedule of the reporting, we know it wasn't frequent enough to get reinforcements to the Palace in time. Even coming through the Waygate, it would have taken most of the night and maybe several hours longer for the Trollocs to work all the way through Caemlyn and take the walls.

 

And the assumption that the invasion would come from the borders is a silly one. Why would the Black Ajah be making preparations in Caemlyn for an attack designed to hit the borders? The Shadow had infiltrated significant numbers of Shadowspawn into the vicinity of Caemlyn before - all the way back in TEoTW. Most of Andor's northern region is uninhabited, especially now - it would be relatively easy to infiltrate small groups and have them assemble near the city.

 

To assume that the Shadowspawn would only come in the obvious way she expected is typical of Elayne. Preparing for contingencies is about preparing for things that aren't expected. You leave reserves in place, even when you're not sure that you'll need them, because you know that unexpected things can happen. That's what redundancy is all about. So the fact that Elayne didn't know that they would use the Waygate is no excuse. She should have been more cautious, left more redundancies, precisely because she didn't know exactly how they were going to attack.

 

 

It's not. Elayne's well aware of Traveling and the Forsaken's facility with it. Why, Rand himself has raided Caemlyn via Gateways just a few months before, and Shadowspawn isn't everything the Shadow's got. But then again, Egwene should be planning on a Seanchan raid but apparently just left all her Novices in the Tower with no more than a dozen sisters. There's stupidity enough to go around, and what bugs me is that it's done by people who should've known better. I can't think of any reason for it, also, except plot-convenience.

 

Well ... Shadowspawn can't use Travelling, though we don't know if Elayne knows that or not yet. But there is plenty of stupidity associated with the meeting at Merrilor.

 

 

. There's stupidity enough to go around, and what bugs me is that it's done by people who should've known better. I can't think of any reason for it, also, except plot-convenience.

 

People can debate all they want but in reality this is what it comes down to...

 

This I can, unfortunately, agree with.

[Vardar]

Well ... Shadowspawn can't use Travelling, though we don't know if Elayne knows that or not yet. But there is plenty of stupidity associated with the meeting at Merrilor.

 

With the lack of communication in Randland between main characters, it's pretty safe to assume those 20 AS that Rand told that have no shared the tidings.

 

Although to be honest the simple fact that no one has put together that simple fact on their own yet lends credence to their stupidity. I mean really, you don't think armies of Trollocs would be pouring into every major city if they could? The fact that they haven't means they can't.

[Neophyte]

With the lack of communication in Randland between main characters, it's pretty safe to assume those 20 AS that Rand told that have no shared the tidings.

 

Actually, there's at least a decent chance that Nynaeve would have mentioned it at some point. But we don't know for sure (or at least I don't, maybe someone will find it).

 

 

Although to be honest the simple fact that no one has put together that simple fact on their own yet lends credence to their stupidity. I mean really, you don't think armies of Trollocs would be pouring into every major city if they could? The fact that they haven't means they can't.

 

Yeah ... that's just sloppy thinking. To assume that the enemy can't do anything that they haven't already done? That's a very good way to lose - as the ashes of Caemlyn would attest.

[Vardar]

With the lack of communication in Randland between main characters, it's pretty safe to assume those 20 AS that Rand told that have no shared the tidings.

 

Actually, there's at least a decent chance that Nynaeve would have mentioned it at some point. But we don't know for sure (or at least I don't, maybe someone will find it).

 

 

Although to be honest the simple fact that no one has put together that simple fact on their own yet lends credence to their stupidity. I mean really, you don't think armies of Trollocs would be pouring into every major city if they could? The fact that they haven't means they can't.

 

Yeah ... that's just sloppy thinking. To assume that the enemy can't do anything that they haven't already done? That's a very good way to lose - as the ashes of Caemlyn would attest.

 

1) It's a major development, I would think someone would have thought about it already. But when did she find time to share with Elayne?

 

2) It's not sloppy thinking, think about it. You have either two choices. 1) Realize that the Dark side has had travelling for much much much longer than you, and they have beasts that if were dumped inside a city, would destroy said city and thus tell your guardsmen to be on the watch for random gateways relseasing Trollocs, making escape plans for such an occurance thus preparing your cities for that.

2) Come to the logical conclusion that the Shadow would have done this already if they could. Something must be stopping them from doing it. Logical conclusion, they can't for some reason. Capture a Trolloc and find out why.

Instead they went with 3) Never even bother to think about it apparently ignoring the HUGE obvious threat it poses(d) meaning the thought never occured to them. I find that really really hard to believe.

 

Cmon, the first thing anyone would think of is home security when an instantaneous transportation method is discovered.

[Ian Ohlander]

You are blaming her for something you do not have the full insight into as of yet(if ever)

 

I am blaming her primarily for not having a robust and redundant communication system in place in the face of an imminent attack into her homeland when the bulk of her army is leagues away. Knowing the risk she is assuming by leaving with most of her assets makes communication for rapid response absolutely critical.

 

And you don't leave that communication dependent on a single and brittle choke point.

 

And while this really does come down to plot-convenience, the fact that it squares with Elayne's penchant for not really making contingency plans for things, makes it also an issue of character.

[Neophyte]

1) It's a major development, I would think someone would have thought about it already. But when did she find time to share with Elayne?

 

 

Meetings in Tel'aran'rhiod. I think that a number of those have happened off-screen.

 

I'm certainly not sure though. Nynaeve was surprised by Elayne's pregnancy, so maybe not.

 

 

2) Come to the logical conclusion that the Shadow would have done this already if they could. Something must be stopping them from doing it. Logical conclusion, they can't for some reason.

 

I don't think that is a logical conclusion. There are more reasons for not doing something than "it can't be done." Say for instance, "I'm going to surprise you with it later, when it'll do even more damage."

 

Assuming that if they haven't done it, they can't do it is exactly what I said - sloppy thinking.

[Vardar]

Meetings in Tel'aran'rhiod. I think that a number of those have happened off-screen.

 

I'm certainly not sure though. Nynaeve was surprised by Elayne's pregnancy, so maybe not

 

Exactly, It wasn't important enough to share, which makes no sense.

 

I don't think that is a logical conclusion. There are more reasons for not doing something than "it can't be done." Say for instance, "I'm going to surprise you with it later, when it'll do even more damage."

 

Assuming that if they haven't done it, they can't do it is exactly what I said - sloppy thinking

 

But they had the ability to test it easily. Hence the logical conclusion. Either come to the conclusion, and test it, or be prepared 100% of the time for an invasion. You say assuming they can't is sloppy thinking, I counter with never thinking about it is the sloppy thinking. No one is prepared for it at all, meaning that every Country in their world came to that logical conclusion, or tested it on their own (doubtful) or they're all that stupid that it never crossed their minds. Can they all be that stupid?

[Neophyte]

But they had the ability to test it easily. Hence the logical conclusion. Either come to the conclusion, and test it, or be prepared 100% of the time for an invasion. You say assuming they can't is sloppy thinking, I counter with never thinking about it is the sloppy thinking. No one is prepared for it at all, meaning that every Country in their world came to that logical conclusion, or tested it on their own (doubtful) or they're all that stupid that it never crossed their minds. Can they all be that stupid?

 

First, who had the ability to test what easily? The lightside channelers had the ability to test Shadowspawn's ability to pass through Gateways easily? Not really - we haven't seen any captured Shadowspawn at all yet, except for the ones Fain corrupts.

 

But Elayne had a specific reason to be more wary than the leaders of other nations - she had direct intelligence from the Black Ajah that a specifically planned attack was imminent. Yet leader's like King Darlin show more concern for their security at home (in his letter to Egwene).

 

The leaders under Rand's control likely know that Shadowspawn can't attack them through Gateways - it would be even more monumentally absurd for him not to have told people like King Darlin, Davram Bashere, Rodel Ituralde, Gregorin den Lushenos, etc. in some off screen planning meetings. Whether Elayne knows or not is debatable, but in the end, irrelevant. Even if she knows that they can't come through Gateways, there is still plenty of reason for her to make certain that Caemlyn is secure.

[csarmi]

What was she doing for 40 days?

According to the timeline reference tables I'm using, it's more like 59 days (with a considerable amount of uncertainty, but what can you do?). Now, it took Rand and co. 12 days to make the trip from Rhuidean to Cold Rocks Hold back in TSR, so let's be generous and assume it takes Aviendha alone just as many days (which is, quite frankly, absurd). That leaves ~47 days for two goes through the columns. If I'm not much mistaken, in the past no one came out once they've been gone for 10 days, making it highly unlikely that we've got the timeline down right. Then again, no one has ever went through a second time. That could make all the difference.

 

OKay let's assume that going through the rings takes a lot of time. Then how does Bair going there help? By the time she comes out, the last battle is done.

[MountaineerWV]

Leaving four kin that can only make a gateway is amateur. It makes more sense for Elayne to leave two kin that can form gateways on their own and take the four weaker kin that can obviously kill up to several trollocs at a time and heal with her

 

Talmanes was good, but I question the purpose of his going into Caemlyn.

 

Who gives a rat's ass if the Dragon's fall into the Shadow's hand. The Dragons are only useful if darkfriends know how to make gun powder. Aludra seems to be the only one left that can make gunpowder. She would die before handing over her secret.

 

Where the hell is Olver? And why was that Way Gate not permanently sealed? It will be a shame to see the Royal Palace, it's library and artwork and history destroyed.

 

 

I don't see how the good guys in the Black Tower with AS help are going to rend it in blood and fire and come out on top. There seem to be too many evil Asha'men, most of those being the most powerful channellers...

 

 

I agree that the setup to the FoM just doesn't make sense. It's not like every soldier, prostitute, and cook is going to have a vote on Rand's decision. Rand wanted to armies gathered because he is probably going to Travel them somewhere (most likely Shayul Ghul) after he brings Egwene to his side and exacts his price. The setup could have been better.

[Vardar]

But they had the ability to test it easily. Hence the logical conclusion. Either come to the conclusion, and test it, or be prepared 100% of the time for an invasion. You say assuming they can't is sloppy thinking, I counter with never thinking about it is the sloppy thinking. No one is prepared for it at all, meaning that every Country in their world came to that logical conclusion, or tested it on their own (doubtful) or they're all that stupid that it never crossed their minds. Can they all be that stupid?

 

First, who had the ability to test what easily? The lightside channelers had the ability to test Shadowspawn's ability to pass through Gateways easily? Not really - we haven't seen any captured Shadowspawn at all yet, except for the ones Fain corrupts.

 

But Elayne had a specific reason to be more wary than the leaders of other nations - she had direct intelligence from the Black Ajah that a specifically planned attack was imminent. Yet leader's like King Darlin show more concern for their security at home (in his letter to Egwene).

 

The leaders under Rand's control likely know that Shadowspawn can't attack them through Gateways - it would be even more monumentally absurd for him not to have told people like King Darlin, Davram Bashere, Rodel Ituralde, Gregorin den Lushenos, etc. in some off screen planning meetings. Whether Elayne knows or not is debatable, but in the end, irrelevant. Even if she knows that they can't come through Gateways, there is still plenty of reason for her to make certain that Caemlyn is secure.

 

Wonder why the Shadow hasn't attacked major cities via gateways yet. (I mean really, someone should wonder this)

Travel to the Blight with support, capture a few trollocs. Flows of Air.

Push them into the gateway to go back and test.

 

OH MY GOSH THEY ALL DIE! I wonder why?

 

Remember Rand didn't remember until the Manor house attack and he only tell Logain and those AS in the room with him at the time. Why didn't he send messangers out right then and there? That's HUGE news.

[fionwe1987]

If Elayne knew Gateways couldn't be used with Trollocs, she still has no reason to feel complacent. She knows the Caemlyn Waygate was secured by Rand, but there's still Portal stones. Since Galad gave a thorough report to her of his time with the WC, she would have heard Trollocs appeared from nowhere to attack them. She should then have asked Perrin if he knew how they came (since Perrin had channelers, and Galad would have told her this). This would have meant she'd know about the risk from Portal Stones.

 

If Team Jordan had done the work of really figuring out the impact of the events of the last two books, this kind of stuff wouldn't have happened. Now we're left with characters we've been shown as extremely clever acting in absurdly stupid ways, and ignoring information they're bound to have.

 

And to those using Elayne's interrogation of the BA as proof of a trend of her stupidity: you can't disprove a claim that Elayne's trend of stupidity began with Sanderson by showing her stupid actions when written by Sanderson. Look to events before, and you'll find a very different picture.

[Manscher]

It's a common theme throughout the entire series that the good guys don't communicate and that they usually work under the wrong assumptions.

[Neophyte]

And to those using Elayne's interrogation of the BA as proof of a trend of her stupidity: you can't disprove a claim that Elayne's trend of stupidity began with Sanderson by showing her stupid actions when written by Sanderson. Look to events before, and you'll find a very different picture.

 

That's a fair point - though I've said that while some of Elayne's actions are stupid, she isn't stupid; she just doesn't plan for the possibility that things can go wrong. That tendency is evident even in the raid on Full Moon Street, which was written by RJ.

 

But I would have expected her (indeed, I did expect her) to learn and get better at dealing with contingencies, and to be more aware of the risks to those around her. She seemed fairly chastened and a bit humbled when Birgitte rescued her in KoD ch 33. She seemed aware that Min's prophecy was not an assurance that everything would just be OK.

 

Instead, once Sanderson takes the reins, she goes in the other direction. She's even mentally using Min's vision as justification for her actions again in ToM ch 23. Then, by ToM ch 33 she's telling Gawyn:

 

"We can't afford to be shortsighted right now." She began to row them back despite his protest.

"This," he said, "coming from the woman who personally raided the Black Ajah?"

Elayne blushed. He could tell that she wished he'd never found out about that event. "It was needed. And besides, I did say 'we.' You and I, we have this trouble."

 

Elayne seems to know that its a problem. It's almost like Sanderson made her learn the same lesson again - why, I don't know - and then ignore it, again. It's just strange. "Shortsighted" is the perfect word to describe her lack of preparations in Caemlyn.

[Manscher]

She didn't learn her lessons regarding Mins vision until the event in ToM, where she freaked out after Hanlon stabbed her. In fact, in KoD Birgitte berates her for not being afraid at all while in the hands of the Black Ajah.

[Neophyte]

She didn't learn her lessons regarding Mins vision until the event in ToM, where she freaked out after Hanlon stabbed her. In fact, in KoD Birgitte berates her for not being afraid at all while in the hands of the Black Ajah.

 

Yes, but once she was rescued and realized that even though she was personally safe, a whole lot of other people got killed, I thought she seemed somewhat chastened. The lesson I thought she had learned was not fear for her personal safety, but concern for what her foolhardiness could do to others.

 

But, having just glanced back through it, maybe that was optimism on my part. She feels sadness for Vandene and Sareitha, and seems generally a bit subdued, but not really chastened. I don't know ... but what I do know is that the degree of her foolhardiness increased in subsequent episodes, when it should have decreased, given how intelligent she seems to be in other areas.

[MasterAblar]

I don't see how the good guys in the Black Tower with AS help are going to rend it in blood and fire and come out on top. There seem to be too many evil Asha'men, most of those being the most powerful channellers...

 

Not necessarily. Taim only promotes his men so there could be plenty of very powerful Soldiers and Dedicated. That said like you said even with the Aes Sedai outside the BT the good guys are completely outnumbered not to mention as Androl pointed out the Ashaman are made for fighting, and just for fighting. The only way they're going to win is by getting help from outside, as many Ashaman have been sent to Tear or to the Borderlands, or by succesfully getting the Ashaman in the BT to turn against Taim, since, as Androl said, most of them are not truly loyal to him. I just don't see how Androl is going to pull that off on his own. I really think Logain or Rand needs to return for the good guys to win.

[Taryntula]

Maybe this is a stupid question...but I thought the Waygate in Caemlyn was secure...did Loial & Karl (the Asha'man with him, I think that's his name) miss it? Am I forgetting something?

[Manscher]

Only thing we know about it, is that Rand put guards on it. As to why he didn't have it destroyed or warded like the one in Shadar Logoth, who knows.

[Taryntula]

Seems strange that Loial would have missed one. Maybe he thought Rand's guards were enough...

[Suttree]

Only thing we know about it, is that Rand put guards on it. As to why he didn't have it destroyed or warded like the one in Shadar Logoth, who knows.

 

Yeah Rand said it is "sealed", we don't really know what that means however.

[XoMeltdownoX]

Seems strange that Loial would have missed one. Maybe he thought Rand's guards were enough...

Loial did not "miss" it. He was not directed to this waygate. Rand made it clear he took care of the ones he knew of and sent Loial to the others, which had been marked out on a map by elder Haman.

[yoniy0]

Elayne (pre-Sanderson) does have a streak of disregard for her own personal safety, though the incident with the BA isn't actually a good example. There, she was ready for almost everything, even though she was too flippant about it. But you can see it earlier, the way she wonders off alone in Tanchico, Ebou Dar and even Caemlyn, with near disastrous results. You might even say she unwisely put herself in the hands of the Borderlander monarchs, although that was much less risky. However, when her nation was concerned, she's shown herself to be very sober, even calculating. This isn't in character, not at all.

 

OKay let's assume that going through the rings takes a lot of time. Then how does Bair going there help? By the time she comes out, the last battle is done.

It's not about TG at all. It's about what follows, and for that Bair has time (even if Aviendha is right about the following day, they still can attempt to change their course after that).

[Maleshub]

So, I've had the pre-ordered Prologue in the Kindle account since 18 September and checked on 21 September. It was there for three days; and I missed it!

 

But now that I've gotten over that and read it, I like it. It was very good, fast-paced, and very enlightening.

 

One amusing note is that in 24 pages of discussion in this thread, the Jarid Sarand army was not mentioned once. That part of the prologue was (to me) wasted pages. The intensity of the rest of the prologue make that Jarid part look that useless.

 

Aviendha's (and I love her) PoV was nice to read (aside from the timeline thingie). It was nice to see the Aiel's tenacity and determination; Bair's hardness and self-sacrifice; Sorilea's trademark sense and leadership; and Aviendha's determination to try and help sort this thing out. And I look forward to seeing how she plans to discover Rand's plans.

 

M'Heal's official induction ceremony was a very good reading; but lacked an induction speech. And Isam's PoV was nice as well.

 

Talmanes PoV's were nice; but his attempt at humor in the last few hours of his life were "un-Talmanes-like." BS and humor don't mix very well in prose. And Aludra single-handedly (which is how i saw it in the first reading) holding off Trollocs and Fades to defend the Dragons was strange.

 

Leilwin's PoV was very nice (despite a few minor hiccups). She remains loyal to her people and Empress; but wants to serve them in a reformist way. She's a revolutionary, which is nice to see compared to the Seanchan rigid structure.

[hjustinpace]

Mat spent the entire night before his escape from Ebou Dar awake going through contingencies. And when something unexpected happened, he adapted intelligently.

 

I can't help but note with a little schadenfreude (albeit mostly schaden) that after spending the last several books putting the ostensible interests of Andor ahead of those of the world, Elayne's actions have led to the razing of Andor's greatest city. Guess what, you by definition fail as a head of state. Sorry.