CAUTION: Super Spoiler Prologue discussion; Leave the cops out of it :)

[XXX]

In our modern world, the only country in the world that can field those types of numbers are the US - and that's only because of our freakin unbelievable logistical operations.

 

 

Well, army sizes of Russia, China, India and North Korea are above 1.000K, Iran has 500K. It may be true that only the US can bring that numbers to any field on the earth. Unfortunately for you, on most fields you'd want to bring those numbers to, there's already an army of that size present. ;-)

 

US cannot bring 1 million solders to any field on earth.

[XXX]

The next attack on the WT will be different compared to the last one. In the last raid the AS were inside the WT and the Seachan were attacking from outside. In the next one if it happens when the AS are in FOM, the Seachan will be inside the WT with the AS trying to retake the WT.

[Icaruss]

Okay, do me a favor, and actually go read the chapters where the attack is planned. Gaining at least one woman who can Travel, and one who can show them the "destructive weave" Elayne used in tPoD were the two major motives of the raid. The point was to neutralize the advantage of the WT with respect to Traveling and destructive weaves. If you don't even know this, then I fail to see how your contribution to this discussion matters

 

True, my mistake...the bolded part is an overreaction though, chill...

 

This matter, how? We weren't talking about casualties of the WT, we were talking about whether the raid in any way dented the number of damane. A dead Aes Sedai is not a new damane, ergo, she cannot make up for a dead or captive damane. Only a captive AS or Accepted can make up for a dead or captive damane.

 

Correct, a dead Aes Sedai isn't a new damane, but a dead Aes Sedai is still a dead Aes Sedai. Every dead or captured Aes Sedai still helps the opposition. This mattered to you a couple of posts ago...look at your post on the top of the page where you said "All told, while the total number of Aes Sedai lost to the Tower, which includes the dead as well as the captive, is certainly more than the 40 the Seanchan lost, in terms of absolute numbers"

 

Sorry, all you're revealing is your lack of knowledge of OP mechanics.

 

I'm going to assume there should be more after that sentence, like examples, but since there weren't any I'll assume there was no point to the comment.

 

And any such attack that came against those members of Anaiya's circle... she would just ignore those attacks because she's a moron, right?

 

If she doesn't know where the enemy is, how is she going to stop them? It has nothing to do with being a moron, and it has everything to do with having the element of surprise.

 

And? If, instead, each of those sisters wove separately, they'd feel just as exhausted, but the combined effect of their individual weaving would be less than that of a circle with the same people. Do go read RJ's statements on the increased precision and effectiveness of circles, that should help a lot in this discussion.

 

I already have, you however brushing off any of the weaknesses that linking can have isn't helping the discussion.

 

m sorry, are a country and a city the same thing now? Egwene has a much smaller area to deal with. And that area is under constant contact with the AS encampment in Merrillor as was emphasized again in the Prologue. There aren't four women barely strong enough to Travel. There are many more, all constantly Traveling back and forth between the Tower and FOM. From Sleete's words, its also clear that people entering and exiting the Tower are being monitored, and such information is being shared between the Warders in FoM and the Tower Guard/Warders in the Tower

 

She does have a smaller are to deal with (again the bold part is something I've never said) and unless they have a gateway open 24/7 there's no reason the attack wouldn't be a surprise

 

When you know they have Traveling? The hallmark of battle with Traveling is that you won't have any sign that the enemy is approaching. Egwene used that very fact to surprise the WT and effectively besiege them before giving them any time to prepare for it. If you think Bryne and she are idiots and haven't considered the Seanchan would do the same, you're welcome to that opinion, but it isn't supported by the text.

 

She did use that to her advantage, it's a big advantage, and she knows they have it (the bolded part isn't my opinion. That doesn't change that she still wouldn't know when or where they'd attack from.

 

Why are they defenseless? What prevents the circle leader from creating wards around all 13 of them? I'm interested to know your reasoning here? Why would the circle leader, fully aware of the danger of her sisters, not stop those weaves of Air and Earth with her much stronger abilities? Not even the strongest damane can send anything a random circle of 13 can't overmatch. And even if 13 damane attack at once, the circle would still have the advantage as we saw when 8 windfinders in a circle confronted 8 Black sisters unlinked.

 

What's to stop anyone from attacking in the circle leaders blindspots, you assume that it would be easy for the circle leader to keep watch on all 12 of the circle members while defending against not only other channelers weaves but any random arrow from hitting anyone in the group. They may not be defenseless but they can't defend themselves only the circle leader can do that.

 

?? Go read the countless instances of channelers cutting weaves they have no idea of the function of, or cannot even see in some cases.

 

I was indifferent on this, but I'm not going to go look for examples, if they're "countless" and it's your stance on the argument. Provide the example and i'll conceed the point.

 

Range of what destruction? The damane's? The range of any destruction a circle can manage is far far above what any single channeler can manage.

 

Sigh I never said the bolded part, in fact I agree with it, my point is that depending on how wide the range of destruction is that the damane causing the the circle leader might have a harder time averting it.

 

No one referenced them teaching the AS to hide their ability and invert their weaves. Yet, other Aes Sedai have shown these abilities. Magic?

 

They learned this back in LOC, yes? Then it makes sense that those other weaves you assume they learned haven't been talked about or referenced since then. Oh wait, it doesn't

 

Why? If your fortress is attacked when the bulk of your army is away (and your enemies didn't know this coming in), and you have the ability to quickly get back to your fortress, and because of larger gateways, can concentrate your forces much more quickly than the Seanchan can, why would you be "off guard". For god's sake, the enemy gave you the chance to set up a remote command center from where you can coordinate a massive counterattack. That's an amazing advantage, not something to fret over!

 

How would you not be off gaurd, people are attacking you and don't expect it because you aren't there, they can compensate but that doesn't mean they still wouldn't be caught off gaurd initially.

 

You may be unaware of this, but wards can be set to give warning to people far far away if they're breached. And knowing the exact number of dead or captive is hardly a special disadvantage. Nobody knows those things during a battle. And they're meaningless when you can scout out any location with Traveling.

 

The ward may notify the other people in the Tower, but i don't remeber any ward notifying anyone as far away as Egwene (If you could point me to an example I'd be grateful). It's not a special disadvantage, just an ordinary one.

 

 

So? She needs just one single Gateway made by 13 sisters to handle either of their requests. Once again, she has a massive advantage due to circles.

 

Not to mention, Darlin and Gregorin would be fools to let the Tower fall. That's the only place that can supply them with Traveling and channelers against the Seanchan.

 

And I see no evidence for the Seanchan to be stupid enough to start battles at three fronts at the same time.

 

It's not going to take a couple of minutes for a whole army to pass through those gateways, and there's nothing to say that those 26 sisters won't need a break halfway through and need other sisters to fill thier places. I wasn't trying to say that the Seanchan would attack three places, I was trying to say that word of whats happening in Camelyn may make them decide to head back to their respective contries to see if the shadow was attacking them.

 

We've not been told a lot of what Egwene and Rand were doing in ToM. We didn't see anything about Egwene's plan for her meeting with the rulers of the world either. Should we assume she doesn't have one?

 

And we have seen Bryn's plans to defend Tar Valon and the Tower. Add to that Egwene's plans for the LB, and her shoring up support with the WO and the Sea Folk against the Seanchan, and short of an exact battle plan from Egwene to ruin the suspense, I don't see what else Brandon could have done to communicate that she's readying for war.

 

Her plan is to gain the support of the rulers, and Rand's closest allies in opposing Rand's idea of breaking of the seals. It seems Rand plans on making demands of the rulers in exchange for fighting the last battle, and plans to break the seals regardless of what they think.

 

I dont't need complete plans, it isnt that serious, but without even a little time spent talking about what she has planned, should i just assume she has a counter for anything they throw at her, or should i just assume she has a barely any plans made?

[MountaineerWV]

In our modern world, the only country in the world that can field those types of numbers are the US - and that's only because of our freakin unbelievable logistical operations.

 

 

Well, army sizes of Russia, China, India and North Korea are above 1.000K, Iran has 500K. It may be true that only the US can bring that numbers to any field on the earth. Unfortunately for you, on most fields you'd want to bring those numbers to, there's already an army of that size present. ;-)

 

Dude, I'm not turning this in to a dick comparison contest.

 

I just saying that I find that the logistical capabilities of the Seanchan on a level significantly inferior to the only nation that can currently project military might of comparable numbers. Ok, so China has a billion freaking soldiers. Can they project them anywhere? No. The Seanchan have to cross a huge ocean to gather reinforcements. The cross it again. With a civil war raging in the mainland. Not going to happen.

 

The only tools the Seanchan have are what they brought with them or they gathered in the nations they currently occupy. They are not getting any help from the mainland. They have been soundly defeated a number of times and they have conquered relatively weak nations. The forces they can field are strong, but not comparable to what the Shadow can field or what Rand is currently gathering.

[Kestrel]

I just saying that I find that the logistical capabilities of the Seanchan on a level significantly inferior to the only nation that can currently project military might of comparable numbers. Ok, so China has a billion freaking soldiers. Can they project them anywhere? No. The Seanchan have to cross a huge ocean to gather reinforcements. The cross it again. With a civil war raging in the mainland. Not going to happen.

Seanchan CAN project -- now. They have Elaida, Traveling, and an army of damane strong enough to use it.

[Suttree]

I just saying that I find that the logistical capabilities of the Seanchan on a level significantly inferior to the only nation that can currently project military might of comparable numbers. Ok, so China has a billion freaking soldiers. Can they project them anywhere? No. The Seanchan have to cross a huge ocean to gather reinforcements. The cross it again. With a civil war raging in the mainland. Not going to happen.

Seanchan CAN project -- now. They have Elaida, Traveling, and an army of damane strong enough to use it.

 

Which wouldn't be an easy process considering they can't link. Gateways would be very small for something like that.

 

RJ

Good question, though not all of the forces involved could use gateways. (Rafo! Rafo!) Think of the ability to Travel in terms of moving troops via aircraft, and you will begin to get the picture. Even with the largest possible circles, there are limits to the size of gateways and thus limits to the front along which you can move troops out through it, the numbers you can commit simultaneously. Of course, you can use multiple gateways, but each is still only so large and can admit only so many soldiers at a time.

[fionwe1987]

True, my mistake...the bolded part is an overreaction though, chill...

 

Correct, a dead Aes Sedai isn't a new damane, but a dead Aes Sedai is still a dead Aes Sedai. Every dead or captured Aes Sedai still helps the opposition. This mattered to you a couple of posts ago...look at your post on the top of the page where you said "All told, while the total number of Aes Sedai lost to the Tower, which includes the dead as well as the captive, is certainly more than the 40 the Seanchan lost, in terms of absolute numbers"

No, it didn't matter to me, as you'd have known if you'd the read the entire sentence you quoted. Important thing, context.

I'm going to assume there should be more after that sentence, like examples, but since there weren't any I'll assume there was no point to the comment.

There was. Which was that you were revealing your ignorance of some pretty basic OP mechanics concepts from the books.

If she doesn't know where the enemy is, how is she going to stop them? It has nothing to do with being a moron, and it has everything to do with having the element of surprise.

Why wouldn't she know where the enemy is? Damane channel, female channelers can sense other women channeling, ergo, the position of the enemy is hardly a mystery.

 

I already have, you however brushing off any of the weaknesses that linking can have isn't helping the discussion.

You mean your claim that "getting exhausted" is a weakness unique to linking? I am brushing it off, because it has no textual support, and a lot of evidence against it.

She does have a smaller are to deal with (again the bold part is something I've never said) and unless they have a gateway open 24/7 there's no reason the attack wouldn't be a surprise

Okay... define surprise for me. You expected me to reply to this post of yours. You didn't know when exactly I would reply. So when I replied, you were surprised?

And no, there's no continually open Gateway. There are, however, many many gateways being opened all the time, as the Prologue made clear.

She did use that to her advantage, it's a big advantage, and she knows they have it (the bolded part isn't my opinion. That doesn't change that she still wouldn't know when or where they'd attack from.

Where they attack from is immaterial. They could launch their attack from the Land of Madmen for all the difference it makes. She certainly doesn't know exactly when, but why does she need to? When you expect an event in the future to happen at random, its random occurrence can't be a surprise to you.

What's to stop anyone from attacking in the circle leaders blindspots,

The fact that such an attack would be preceded by the circle leader feeling someone channel makes it highly unlikely she wouldn't see it coming, right?

you assume that it would be easy for the circle leader to keep watch on all 12 of the circle members while defending against not only other channelers weaves but any random arrow from hitting anyone in the group. They may not be defenseless but they can't defend themselves only the circle leader can do that.

Again, you may not know this, but channelers can make this things called Weaves of Air, that can surround as many as hundreds of people at once, and such weaves can not only prevent physical harm from arrows and swords, but can also hold back lightning and fire and explosions. Such weaves made by someone backed by a circle happen to be even stronger, making it impossible for any single damane, no matter what her strength, from overcoming them.

I was indifferent on this, but I'm not going to go look for examples, if they're "countless" and it's your stance on the argument. Provide the example and i'll conceed the point.

That's not how it works. If you want to make the contention that you need to know what a weave does before cutting it, the onus of proof is on you. However, applying some common sense might help. We've seen men cut women's weaves and vice versa. Since they can't see the weaves from the opposite gender, they can't know what the weaves do, yet they're still able to defend against them.

Sigh I never said the bolded part, in fact I agree with it, my point is that depending on how wide the range of destruction is that the damane causing the the circle leader might have a harder time averting it.

Why? How does it matter if the damane's range is 10 meters or the distance between the earth and the moon? The leader of any circle is going to have a longer range. If you're saying a damane can launch an attack from a street away... well you're right. But the Aes Sedai can do so too, and their attacks will be able to penetrate any of the defenses the damane have. I'm not seeing how this is specifically an advantage for the Seanchan.

They learned this back in LOC, yes? Then it makes sense that those other weaves you assume they learned haven't been talked about or referenced since then. Oh wait, it doesn't

Who is "they" here? Egwene, Elayne and Nynaeve? Yes, they learned this in LoC. But other AS like Cadsuane and Beonin show these abilities later, yet we never saw them learn all this on screen. How is that the case? Since you insist these things have to either be shown on screen or be untrue, I want you to explain this discrepancy.

How would you not be off gaurd, people are attacking you and don't expect it because you aren't there, they can compensate but that doesn't mean they still wouldn't be caught off gaurd initially.

Sorry. Egwene has never displayed the inability to expect events occurring far away. Nor have any of the major characters. Just because she's in Merrillor, that doesn't mean she can't be aware that a Seanchan attack can hit the WT any moment. When she hears the news, she isn't going to faint in shock, because she knows they want to leash the Tower, and she knows they have Traveling.

The ward may notify the other people in the Tower, but i don't remeber any ward notifying anyone as far away as Egwene (If you could point me to an example I'd be grateful).

Sammael in Illian when Rand set off all his wards.

It's not a special disadvantage, just an ordinary one.

Then why list it when you're discussing advantages the Seanchan have over the Tower?

 

It's not going to take a couple of minutes for a whole army to pass through those gateways, and there's nothing to say that those 26 sisters won't need a break halfway through and need other sisters to fill thier places.

A fifty thousand strong Rebel army went through one such gateway. Took some time, and there was no need for breaks. Their gateway was a hundred paces wide, which is 400 feet. Plenty wide enough for an army to be sent through 200 abreast. Think a minute how long it takes for 50,000 men to walk through some place 200 abreast. Not all that long...

 

I wasn't trying to say that the Seanchan would attack three places, I was trying to say that word of whats happening in Camelyn may make them decide to head back to their respective contries to see if the shadow was attacking them.

Certainly. And this would present absolutely no problem for Egwene.

Her plan is to gain the support of the rulers, and Rand's closest allies in opposing Rand's idea of breaking of the seals. It seems Rand plans on making demands of the rulers in exchange for fighting the last battle, and plans to break the seals regardless of what they think.

These are their goal, not their plans. You have no details on how any of them actually plan to achieve any of this. I think it goes without saying that it is Egwene's goal to protect Tar Valon from the Seanchan and the Shadow. The actual plans to achieve this? We only have hints.

I dont't need complete plans, it isnt that serious, but without even a little time spent talking about what she has planned, should i just assume she has a counter for anything they throw at her, or should i just assume she has a barely any plans made?

No, you should go see all the hints showing that Egwene is preparing the Tower for war. If she had the time to form alliances with the Sea Folk and the Wise Ones against the Seanchan, are you going to assume she did nothing militarily to make sure the Seanchan won't have an easy time of it when they invade?

[fionwe1987]

 

RJ

Good question, though not all of the forces involved could use gateways. (Rafo! Rafo!) Think of the ability to Travel in terms of moving troops via aircraft, and you will begin to get the picture. Even with the largest possible circles, there are limits to the size of gateways and thus limits to the front along which you can move troops out through it, the numbers you can commit simultaneously. Of course, you can use multiple gateways, but each is still only so large and can admit only so many soldiers at a time.

Thanks for that quote Suttree. Been searching for it. RJ, of course, gets the heart of it. Smaller Gateways present all sorts of issues. Troop concentration will be much slower when the widest Gateway you can make is four paces (16 feet) across. And that's for women as strong as Rand, which the Seanchan aren't exactly full of. The Tower has s

significantly larger Gateways at its command. That makes a huge difference.

[MountaineerWV]

I just saying that I find that the logistical capabilities of the Seanchan on a level significantly inferior to the only nation that can currently project military might of comparable numbers. Ok, so China has a billion freaking soldiers. Can they project them anywhere? No. The Seanchan have to cross a huge ocean to gather reinforcements. The cross it again. With a civil war raging in the mainland. Not going to happen.

Seanchan CAN project -- now. They have Elaida, Traveling, and an army of damane strong enough to use it.

 

Like Suttree an fionwe pointed out, there are still limits.

 

Specifically flow rates and dimensions.

 

That's why I don't really understand this plan to put Seanchan soldiers in the basement of the Tower. Say you can put fifty in a room. How many rooms are there? How much stuff is in the rooms taking up space that soldiers could fit into instead? Are the doors locked or warded? How many levels are there? How many stairwells to the upper levels?

[Maleshub]

@Finowe 1987:

 

The Seanchan killed about 2 dozen Aes Sedai in addition to the 40 initiates captured (12 of them Aes Sedai). The Seanchan loses are in damane as they have plenty of Sul'dam. In the damane category, they lost 10 damane as prisoners and an estimated 10 more in downed Raken. Why only 10? Because the downed Raken have to be divided between captives, damane and suldam pairs, soldiers (the majority), and probably empty Raken with drivers only that were mounted by the dead and captured Seancha. So, I would guess that the most the Seanchan lost in the raid are 20 damane.

 

That's very nice, but it ignores that damane were also killed in the stairwells. Remember Egwene telling Adelorna its better and safer to kill the damane rather than trying to release them? Now consider that in Saerin's PoV, we see that all the forces in the Tower (ie those that were off the raken) were disengaging everywhere and focusing on the 22nd level. And among those fighting in the 22nd level, only 3 Novices and one AS died. Which means they captured 10 Damane (two of those were released by Egwene herself on screen). But how many did they kill?

 

And we also know that the to'raken all had a sul'dam damane pair initially. The raken did not. The moment Egwene started blasting raken and to'raken from the air (and hence reducing the prisoners being taken away), the Seanchan would immediately have sent to'raken with damane to attack her. These were the ones we're told she was battling. What I'm saying is that the moment Egwene's goals become clear, the only tactically sensible thing for the Seanchan to do is to send all the damne bearing raken against her, so that the captives can be taken away, since their sole purpose was to capture someone who knew Traveling. So, the number of air-borne damane she brought down is likely to be more not less.

 

You're right the Tower, on the whole, lost more people than the Seanchan. But that wasn't my point. My point was that the Seanchan did not capture more fresh damane than they lost in the raid. Not that it mattered to them, so far as labeling this a success goes. The count has no relevance to that. But it does have relevance to total number of damane available to the Seanchan, which had a mild dent put on it by Egwene's actions in the raid.

In light of those numbers, the WT is at -64 and the Seanchan are at +20 (+40, -20). The power shift is +84 in the Seanchan favor. That makes the raid very successful.

No one is questioning the raid's success. The question is how many damane the Seanchan lost in total, taking into account the 40 new ones they got.

 

I forgot to take into consideration the damane that may have been killed in battle. The Seanchan lost more than the 10 captured damane. But let us start with the number of to'raken in the raid, since only 50 of them had damane-suldam pair.

 

"We would use a force of mostly to'raken," General Yulan said. "With some raken for scouting. Our captured maps show large grasslands with very few inhabitants, which could be used as resting points along the way. We could strike across Murandy here," he pointed at a second map, which aides held up, "and come at Tar Valon from the south. If it pleases the Highest Daughter, we could raid at night, while the marath'damane are asleep. Our objective would be to capture as many of them as possible."

 

"It is wondered if this really could be accomplished," Selucia Voiced. Tuon was intrigued. "What numbers would we be able to use for such a raid?"

 

"If we were fully committed?" Yulan asked. "I believe I could gather up between eighty and a hundred to'raken for the assault."

 

Eighty to a hundred to'raken. So, perhaps around three hundred soldiers, with equipment, leaving room to bring back captured marath'damane. Three hundred would be a considerable force for a raid like this, but they would have to move quickly and lightly, so as to not be trapped.

 

"If it pleases the Highest Daughter," General Galgan said, stepping forward again. "I believe General Yulan's plan has much merit. It is not without potential for great loss, but we will never have another such opportunity. If brought to bear in our conflict, those marath'damane could disable us. And if we could gain access to this weapon of theirs, or even their ability to travel great distances. . . . Well, I believe that the risk of every to'raken in our army is worth the gains."

 

"If it pleases the Highest Daughter," General Yulan continued. "Our plan calls for the use twenty squads of the Fist of Heaven—two hundred troops total—and fifty linked sul'dam. We think that, perhaps, a small group of Bloodknives would be appropriate as well."

 

The number of to'raken used in the raid was in the range of 80-100, with 50 carrying damane-suldam pair. That leaves 30-50 to'raken that only had soldiers or were for captives and supplies.

 

Another point is that the plan depended heavily on to'raken with a few raken for scouting. But in the battle with the crossbowmen firing on Egwene it seemed that there are more raken than initially planned; or that this is an inconsistency.

 

As to the damage done by WT resistance, mostly by Egwene's rallying point, here are some relevant quotes:

 

... She blasted to'raken after to'raken from the air. They were much less maneuverable than their smaller cousins. She must have felled a dozen by now, and her actions had drawn the attention of those outside. The attack below was breaking off, the entire raid focusing on Egwene. The novices fought Seanchan raiding parties on the stairs, forcing them back. To'raken winged about in the air, swooping around the Tower, trying to take Egwene with shields or blasts of fire. Smaller raken darted through the air, crossbowmen on their backs launching bolts at her.

 

The quote above also tells us that Egwene was attacked by crossbowmen on raken as well as damane on to'raken. But how many did she manage to down in the last part of the battle before the Seanchan collected their captives and left? And how many of the to'raken that she blasted were of the group of 30-50 that didn't have damane-suldam pairs?

 

Here is another quote that sheds some light on the resistance results:

 

And still, the Tower had burned. And still, more to'raken had escaped than had fallen. The count of wounded among those she'd gathered was somewhat encouraging. Only three novices and one Aes Sedai dead, while they'd gathered ten damane and killed dozens of soldiers.

 

And here is Saerin in the PoV after the raid in which she read the report from Egwene's resistance rallying point:

 

There were a frightful number of dead, including over twenty Aes Sedai so far.

.

.

.

Saerin accepted another report, then raised her eyebrows at what it said. Only three novices in Egwene's group of over sixty had died? And only one sister out of some forty she had gathered? Ten Seanchan channelers captured, over thirty raken blown from the air? Light! That made Saerin's own efforts seem downright amateur by comparison. And this was the woman Elaida kept trying to insist was simply a novice?

 

The problem is that Bryne and Saerin PoV's use the word raken to refer to both raken and to'raken. Of the 30+ blasted by Egwene, how many were of each?

 

But Egwene says more to'raken escaped than not? My assumption is that she wouldn't notice if the number of escaped to'raken was 1, 2, or 3. She needed to see a significant difference in the range of 5-10.

 

Assuming the number of to'raken used was 90, we would have 40 downed and 50 escaped. Of the downed to'raken, how many didn't have damane-suldam pair? And of the escaped to'raken, how many belonged to the 10 damane that were captured? And how many damane were killed?

 

I need help trying to figure an estimate of Seanchan damane losses since I cannot analyze that out of the above numbers.

 

And as to WT losses, how many Aes Sedai did the Bloodknives kill before they were neutralized? That would need to be added to the tally as well.

[fionwe1987]

I forgot to take into consideration the damane that may have been killed in battle. The Seanchan lost more than the 10 captured damane. But let us start with the number of to'raken in the raid, since only 50 of them had damane-suldam pair.

 

"We would use a force of mostly to'raken," General Yulan said. "With some raken for scouting. Our captured maps show large grasslands with very few inhabitants, which could be used as resting points along the way. We could strike across Murandy here," he pointed at a second map, which aides held up, "and come at Tar Valon from the south. If it pleases the Highest Daughter, we could raid at night, while the marath'damane are asleep. Our objective would be to capture as many of them as possible."

 

"It is wondered if this really could be accomplished," Selucia Voiced. Tuon was intrigued. "What numbers would we be able to use for such a raid?"

 

"If we were fully committed?" Yulan asked. "I believe I could gather up between eighty and a hundred to'raken for the assault."

 

Eighty to a hundred to'raken. So, perhaps around three hundred soldiers, with equipment, leaving room to bring back captured marath'damane. Three hundred would be a considerable force for a raid like this, but they would have to move quickly and lightly, so as to not be trapped.

 

"If it pleases the Highest Daughter," General Galgan said, stepping forward again. "I believe General Yulan's plan has much merit. It is not without potential for great loss, but we will never have another such opportunity. If brought to bear in our conflict, those marath'damane could disable us. And if we could gain access to this weapon of theirs, or even their ability to travel great distances. . . . Well, I believe that the risk of every to'raken in our army is worth the gains."

 

"If it pleases the Highest Daughter," General Yulan continued. "Our plan calls for the use twenty squads of the Fist of Heaven—two hundred troops total—and fifty linked sul'dam. We think that, perhaps, a small group of Bloodknives would be appropriate as well."

 

The number of to'raken used in the raid was in the range of 80-100, with 50 carrying damane-suldam pair. That leaves 30-50 to'raken that only had soldiers or were for captives and supplies.

 

Another point is that the plan depended heavily on to'raken with a few raken for scouting. But in the battle with the crossbowmen firing on Egwene it seemed that there are more raken than initially planned; or that this is an inconsistency.

Why can't the scout raken have crossbowmen firing off their back?

As to the damage done by WT resistance, mostly by Egwene's rallying point, here are some relevant quotes:

 

... She blasted to'raken after to'raken from the air. They were much less maneuverable than their smaller cousins. She must have felled a dozen by now, and her actions had drawn the attention of those outside. The attack below was breaking off, the entire raid focusing on Egwene. The novices fought Seanchan raiding parties on the stairs, forcing them back. To'raken winged about in the air, swooping around the Tower, trying to take Egwene with shields or blasts of fire. Smaller raken darted through the air, crossbowmen on their backs launching bolts at her.

 

The quote above also tells us that Egwene was attacked by crossbowmen on raken as well as damane on to'raken. But how many did she manage to down in the last part of the battle before the Seanchan collected their captives and left? And how many of the to'raken that she blasted were of the group of 30-50 that didn't have damane-suldam pairs?

Here's the thing to consider... the Seanchan wouldn't have taken the to'raken with captives or supplies close to Egwene, right? Those are much less defensible, and much more valuable. Ergo, the to'raken that "winged about in the air, swooping around the Tower, trying to take Egwene with shields or blasts of fire" were the ones with sul'dam and damane. These focussed on Egwene to give the to'raken with captives time to escape. Which means the majority of the to'raken she felled had sul'dam/damane in them.

 

Here is another quote that sheds some light on the resistance results:

 

And still, the Tower had burned. And still, more to'raken had escaped than had fallen. The count of wounded among those she'd gathered was somewhat encouraging. Only three novices and one Aes Sedai dead, while they'd gathered ten damane and killed dozens of soldiers.

 

And here is Saerin in the PoV after the raid in which she read the report from Egwene's resistance rallying point:

 

There were a frightful number of dead, including over twenty Aes Sedai so far.

.

.

.

Saerin accepted another report, then raised her eyebrows at what it said. Only three novices in Egwene's group of over sixty had died? And only one sister out of some forty she had gathered? Ten Seanchan channelers captured, over thirty raken blown from the air? Light! That made Saerin's own efforts seem downright amateur by comparison. And this was the woman Elaida kept trying to insist was simply a novice?

 

The problem is that Bryne and Saerin PoV's use the word raken to refer to both raken and to'raken. Of the 30+ blasted by Egwene, how many were of each?

There's no certain way to tell. But since there were far fewer raken, and Egwene's description makes clear there were many damane trying to attack her, it seems obvious to me that most of those she blasted were to'raken. Another fact to consider: Tuon never mentions the super strong Aes Sedai who killed many of her soldiers. This could simply be because those that actually faced Egwene, and thus had the best intelligence, were all felled by her.

 

But Egwene says more to'raken escaped than not? My assumption is that she wouldn't notice if the number of escaped to'raken was 1, 2, or 3. She needed to see a significant difference in the range of 5-10.

 

Assuming the number of to'raken used was 90, we would have 40 downed and 50 escaped. Of the downed to'raken, how many didn't have damane-suldam pair? And of the escaped to'raken, how many belonged to the 10 damane that were captured? And how many damane were killed?

We don't know the exact number. But we can be confident that at least 15-20 to'raken with damane were felled by Egwene. Likely 30 or so were felled. Add to that the 10 captured damane and the damane who died in the stairwells, it may well be that very few of the original 50 damane survived indeed. This might also help explain the lack of talk among the Seanchan about the powerful sa'angreal wielding AS, or the added strength of links. Those who faced these simply didn't survive.

 

I need help trying to figure an estimate of Seanchan damane losses since I cannot analyze that out of the above numbers.

 

And as to WT losses, how many Aes Sedai did the Bloodknives kill before they were neutralized? That would need to be added to the tally as well.

True. But that has no bearing on the damane losses of the Seanchan. As far as I remember, the Bloodknives killed four Aes Sedai, and that's it. Then they began focussing on Egwene.

[Maleshub]

Why can't the scout raken have crossbowmen firing off their back?

 

My perception is based on the raken that survived the unweaving of Elayne's gateway near Ebou Dar. It had a driver and the messenger. But there is no way to reject the possibility that archers could be mounted on raken.

 

A side point to consider is that crossbows are more awkward when airborne. A simple bow would be more suitable for an airborne soldier. But that's a different story.

 

Here's the thing to consider... the Seanchan wouldn't have taken the to'raken with captives or supplies close to Egwene, right? Those are much less defensible, and much more valuable. Ergo, the to'raken that "winged about in the air, swooping around the Tower, trying to take Egwene with shields or blasts of fire" were the ones with sul'dam and damane. These focussed on Egwene to give the to'raken with captives time to escape. Which means the majority of the to'raken she felled had sul'dam/damane in them.

 

True, but we know that Egwene was trying to blast as many captive to'raken as possible to deny the Seanchan Traveling. Her battle tactics included that:

 

Some beasts had flown away into the night, bearing captives. Egwene had felled the ones she could, but there had been so many to'raken in this raid. Some would escape. Sisters would be captured.

 

 

So it might be safe to assume that she managed to hit something in the range of 5-10 captive to'raken.

 

There's no certain way to tell. But since there were far fewer raken, and Egwene's description makes clear there were many damane trying to attack her, it seems obvious to me that most of those she blasted were to'raken. Another fact to consider: Tuon never mentions the super strong Aes Sedai who killed many of her soldiers. This could simply be because those that actually faced Egwene, and thus had the best intelligence, were all felled by her.

 

As you said, there is no way to be certain of the numbers. Of the 30+ to'raken blasted by Egwene's rallying point, how many were captive to'raken, and how many were crossbowmen raken? No way to tell exactly; but I think an estimate of 15 - 20 damane to'raken is a reasonable estimate.

 

We don't know the exact number. But we can be confident that at least 15-20 to'raken with damane were felled by Egwene. Likely 30 or so were felled. Add to that the 10 captured damane and the damane who died in the stairwells, it may well be that very few of the original 50 damane survived indeed. This might also help explain the lack of talk among the Seanchan about the powerful sa'angreal wielding AS, or the added strength of links. Those who faced these simply didn't survive.

 

I agree with your estimate on the 15 - 20 damane to'raken. So, total Seanchan losses would be up to 35 damane including captured ones. A significant loss; but they thought it worth getting Traveling and discovering that the Aes Sedai don't have a secret weapon.

 

True. But that has no bearing on the damane losses of the Seanchan. As far as I remember, the Bloodknives killed four Aes Sedai, and that's it. Then they began focussing on Egwene.

 

True, no bearing on damane losses, it is just relevant for the body count.

[Guest Sedated Dragon]

The Samma N'Sei were a mystery until my second read-through of the aMoL prologue. For one, we know that male Aiel channelers are sent on a suicide mission to Shayol Ghul, and these mysterious figures wear red veils. That's obvious. Another transparent connection to make is the presence of thirteen Aes Sedai and thirteen Myrddraal. He thinks to himself that "another one has been caught", which was odd, considering the source had been cleansed. Why would male channelers of the Aiel continue their kamikaze mission if they weren't being subjected to the Dark One's taint? We know that combination of Aes Sedai and Myrddraal can turn a person to the shadow, and oddly enough, that's the exact term he uses to describe them.

 

Turned.They must be male Aiel channelers that have been put through whatever horrifying process is necessary to turn someone from the Light. Sure would explain why Isam claims they were, in his words, "avoiding the new procession for obvious reasons". The way the Samma N'Sei act mirrors the Black Tower Asha'man that have gone "inhuman". Near the end, Moridin reveals that Taim has indeed been "recruiting a new army of Dreadlords".Originally, I'd assumed that since (HEAVY DUTY SPOILER) the rock formation of the Black Tower is literally cut from the rock of Shayol Ghul itself, the Asha'man who had begun to act suspiciously were simply being subjected to a form of taint from being in close contact to said rock. They've mentioned a few times now how "sudden" the changes were, so I'm assuming the Samma N'Sei were turned the same way. Their name for themselves is "Eye Blinders", which is eerily similar to their name for the Dark One. And let's not forget the drink they favor that's supposedly very alike a drink exclusive to the Waste.

 

I assume the term "Talentless" implies an individual who cannot channel the True Power. It's almost certain now that the "madness" which takes over a man's mind is suspiciously like a weave of Compulsion, so the possibility of certain Samma N'Sei being able to channel the TP isn't too ridiculous when you remember that Rand was suddenly able to tap it before his "madness" was Healed (although admittedly for many other possible reasons). Moridin was apparently assumed "Talentless", until he had "proved otherwise". Isam remarks on the number to Samma N'Sei Moridin had supposedly killed, while the True Power is generally accepted by everyone to be "even more destructive" than the One Power.

 

That's it for tonight, I suppose.

[Barid Bel Medar]

Agree with fionwe1987 here.

 

Tuon doesn't have the resources to destroy the White Tower. They are much more prepared now, I won't repeat what has been said, but pretty much agree, they will not find it so easy to take on the White Tower now that they have been reunited and prepared.

 

They certainly provide a great threat, and if all went their way, or they were under Mat's command (which won't happen, ever) they could potentially win, but the White Tower would hold a great advantage.

 

IF they had a united homeland and unrestricted access to Seanchan armies, I doubt anyone could stand against them in a protracted war, but they don't, and they plan to invade the Tower in one move - which, if it came down to fighting to the death (it won't, there will be peace formed) - would most likely fail .

[XXX]

RJ

Good question, though not all of the forces involved could use gateways. (Rafo! Rafo!) Think of the ability to Travel in terms of moving troops via aircraft, and you will begin to get the picture. Even with the largest possible circles, there are limits to the size of gateways and thus limits to the front along which you can move troops out through it, the numbers you can commit simultaneously. Of course, you can use multiple gateways, but each is still only so large and can admit only so many soldiers at a time.

Thanks for that quote Suttree. Been searching for it. RJ, of course, gets the heart of it. Smaller Gateways present all sorts of issues. Troop concentration will be much slower when the widest Gateway you can make is four paces (16 feet) across. And that's for women as strong as Rand, which the Seanchan aren't exactly full of. The Tower has s

significantly larger Gateways at its command. That makes a huge difference.

 

 

And neither are the Tower. There are no woman anywhere as strong as Rand.

 

And considering that the strongest woman from the light side is Aliva a former Damane who is far stronger than any AS, I think we should not discount the Seachan damane strength.

[Maleshub]

RJ

Good question, though not all of the forces involved could use gateways. (Rafo! Rafo!) Think of the ability to Travel in terms of moving troops via aircraft, and you will begin to get the picture. Even with the largest possible circles, there are limits to the size of gateways and thus limits to the front along which you can move troops out through it, the numbers you can commit simultaneously. Of course, you can use multiple gateways, but each is still only so large and can admit only so many soldiers at a time.

Thanks for that quote Suttree. Been searching for it. RJ, of course, gets the heart of it. Smaller Gateways present all sorts of issues. Troop concentration will be much slower when the widest Gateway you can make is four paces (16 feet) across. And that's for women as strong as Rand, which the Seanchan aren't exactly full of. The Tower has s

significantly larger Gateways at its command. That makes a huge difference.

 

 

And neither are the Tower. There are no woman anywhere as strong as Rand.

 

And considering that the strongest woman from the light side is Aliva a former Damane who is far stronger than any AS, I think we should not discount the Seachan damane strength.

 

There are certainly powerful damane who could make gateways like the ones that Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are capable of. But the White Tower's advantage is that they can link to make unbelievably large gateways. I think the one that transported the rebels to besiege Tar Valon was 10 paces high and 100 paces wide.

 

The Path of Daggers:

 

 

The light of saidarsprang up around the thirteen sisters near the Sitters, around all of them together, and a thick slash of silver appeared in the middle of the clearing, rotating into a gateway ten paces tall and a hundred wide. Falling snow drifted through from the other side. Shouted orders rose among the soldiers, and the first armored heavy calvary rode through. The swirling snow beyond the gateway was too thick to see far, yet Egwene imagined that she could make out the Shining Walls of Tar Valon and the White Tower itself.

 

"It has begun, Mother," Sheriam said, sounding almost surprised.

 

"It has begun," Egwene agreed. And the Light willing, soon Elaida would fall. She was supposed to wait until Bryne said sufficient of his soldiers were through, but she could not stop herself. Digging her heels into Daishar’s flanks, she rode through into the falling snow, onto the plain where Dragonmount reared black and smoking against a white sky.

[Vardar]

I just don't get it how could anyone think the waygate was safe in the 1st place. They are supposed to know that the entry can be blasted by the power (happened on-screen).

 

Just like I explained with my gateway question (Them not knowing Shadowspawn can't pass thru gateways) there's no excuse!

 

Unless of course No one ever mentioned the Waygate in her own city to her. Maybe she just never found out?

[Kestrel]

I just saying that I find that the logistical capabilities of the Seanchan on a level significantly inferior to the only nation that can currently project military might of comparable numbers. Ok, so China has a billion freaking soldiers. Can they project them anywhere? No. The Seanchan have to cross a huge ocean to gather reinforcements. The cross it again. With a civil war raging in the mainland. Not going to happen.

Seanchan CAN project -- now. They have Elaida, Traveling, and an army of damane strong enough to use it.

 

Which wouldn't be an easy process considering they can't link. Gateways would be very small for something like that.

 

RJ

Ah, yes. Good point. The limitation caused by inability to link is the fatal flaw. Which has me wondering now...

 

What would happen if a sul'dam wore the bracelet for one damane, and that damane wore the bracelet for a second damane, and the second damane wore the bracelet for a third damane? Could the Seanchan overcome the linking limitation by daisy-chaining their damane?

 

Or what would happen if one sul'dam wore the bracelets for several damane? Since the sul'dam herself is a channeler, would holding multiple bracelets combine the strength of the damane?

[herid]

Not sure if this has been discussed already but I have problems with Leilwin's line. Why is she looking for Elayne at FOM?? If she wanted Elayne she had plenty of opportunities to see her in Caemlyn. She spent several days in Caemlyn with Mat before leaving for Tar Valon and it's quite inconceivable that she would not find out in all that time who the queen of Andor was. So why travel all the way to Tar Valon and then to FOM?

[Suttree]

I just don't get it how could anyone think the waygate was safe in the 1st place. They are supposed to know that the entry can be blasted by the power (happened on-screen).

 

Just like I explained with my gateway question (Them not knowing Shadowspawn can't pass thru gateways) there's no excuse!

 

Unless of course No one ever mentioned the Waygate in her own city to her. Maybe she just never found out?

 

She knew but Rand said it was "sealed". She trusts him. Recall that Verin said everyone thought it was safe.

[Maleshub]

Not sure if this has been discussed already but I have problems with Leilwin's line. Why is she looking for Elayne at FOM?? If she wanted Elayne she had plenty of opportunities to see her in Caemlyn. She spent several days in Caemlyn with Mat before leaving for Tar Valon and it's quite inconceivable that she would not find out in all that time who the queen of Andor was. So why travel all the way to Tar Valon and then to FOM?

 

The pattern wanted her beside Egwene. And Leilwin was intent on Tar Valon. She wanted to go there to understand and to work to lift the injustice perpetrated against damane. She wanted Tar Valon first, then Nynaeve or Elayne.

[MasterAblar]

Not sending them and waiting to see how things play out there would be suicide too. Added to that, Dragons... those can certainly be put to good use destroying the walls of the BT.

 

Regular soldiers would only get in the way. Worse they would force channellers on the light side to protect them, to the detriment of their own safety. What would regular sodiers do in this battle? Charge the enemy channellers like Guybon against the BA? That would be a huge waste. And sure the Dragons could take down the walls but channellers can do that too, and maybe even keep the element of suprise if they act fast enough. Dragons on the other hand aren't particularly subtle

 

Except, as Elaida's foretelling made clear, the Aes Sedai, at the very least, will be involved in the BT issue. And Elayne has shown interest aplenty to do something about the Black Tower.

 

There are already Aes Sedai walking the BT grounds, and Androl has made it clear that the Ashaman won't go asking for help, least of all from the Aes Sedai, who, if the Seanchan attack, won't be able to provide it anyway. And Elayne has shown interest in taking command of the BT which is something she doesn't have the power to do anyway.

 

Firstly, the entire Seanchan army can't possibly be used to attack the WT. Quite apart from the huge risk this would place their territories in, the largest Gateway the strongest damane can produce is 4 paces by 4. Which means they'll need to have hundreds of damane maintaining Gateways to transport any army, and the larger that army the longer the Gateways remain open, or the more the damane you need to open them.

 

Certainly they can't empty their lands to attack the WT, but look at the armies they were able to send out against Ituralde. An army 300 000 strong and then another even larger was mustered. They have numerous outposts throughout their captured territories, and garrisons in every city. Even if they can't empty their lands, they can weaken outposts and garrisons somewhat, especially now that the Shaido have been dealt with, and crushing the WT would be worth taking the risk. The gateways on the other hand are an issue, since they can't link. However they have no shortage of damane, especially considering all those they captured from the Shaido. They'd have to get as much of their army through as possible before their presence near Tar Valon becomes known.

 

Either scenario, as we can imagine, would place them against a significant disadvantage against the Tower, which needs a mere 13 channelers to open a Gateway a 100 paces wide. The Gateway advantage for the White Tower is still significant.

 

It is, it'll take far less time for the WT to get it's army back then it'll take for the Seanchan to get theirs through, which is why the Seanchan would have to act as fast as possible.

 

Secondly, Turan's claims most likely included what could be raised in the Seanchan mainland, as someone pointed out.

 

You're probably right all though there is an entire book between Suroth learning of the Empress' murder, and Ituralde's defeat of Turan. Still I imagine he was not aware of it at the time, especially since the news only officialy arrived by ship later in KoD.

 

With many newly raised sisters from the powerful Novices and Accepted.

 

Newly raised sisters who will have very little experience. Most of the novices and accepted will have been training since chapter 17 of tPoD, around 180 days for the first ones to sign up. Unless you're name is Egwene, Nyneave, or Elyane, or they're being forced to learn faster like the Ashaman, then that's really not much, and none of them have any experience in battle, except for the few who were in the WT at the time of the Seanchan raid.

 

And also a continuing recruitment sceme that is likely to have expanded all over with Traveling, and the Rebellion over. This means the number of Novices/Accepted is likely to have gone up, even with the depletion from those raised to Aes Sedai.

 

28 days isn't that much time, and those recruited will barely have any ability with the power.

 

This is implied in ToM, and we also have knowledge that something similar was done during the Trolloc Wars. Add in that the original complement of Aes Sedai is closer to 800, not 600, and the Tower's actual AS numbers are likely to be around 1000, at the very least.

 

I posted this in answer to Suttree first but I might as well post it here too:

 

I was actually going of Taim's belief that there were around 1000, probably less, as of LoC, but perhaps he was mistaken. I find it hard to believe that so many would have died in only 20 years (there were around 1300 Aes Sedai in the world in NS). That said Egwene says the same as Taim in LoC (chapter 37). She says there are fewer than a thousand, and there's no reason to believe she's wrong here.

 

I think that around 20% turned out to be BA. I actually looked at this article from Linda, where she says that " In total there were probably about 215 to 220 Black sisters, which would be 22-3% of the Aes Sedai, there being fewer than one thousand Aes Sedai." (about halfway down the page).

 

If those numbers are correct, then, considering the number of Aes Sedai that have either:

 

- died (a fair few all things considered)

- sworn to Rand (9 from the rebel Aes Sedai and 21 from the Tower Aes Sedai excluding Elza)

- been bonded to Ashaman (50)

- been captured by the Seanchan (at least 25)

 

or simply are still out in the world, including those with Cadsuane, and have yet to return as you said, I imagine there are no more 600 Aes Sedai that Egwene can call on right now and that might be optimistic. Linda actually believes there are only 220 at most: "Allowing for losses to the Seanchan and the purging of the Black Ajah, there are at most two hundred and twenty Aes Sedai in the re-united White Tower, with the former rebels greatly out-numbering those who stayed in the Tower. There are also an unknown number of Accepted and well over one thousand novices, some of whom are quite strong and not bound by the Three Oaths." But 220 seem really low to me.

 

On what basis? The Seanchan numbers, again, can't be replenished with new entrants from Seanchan. They also lost a large number to Ituralde's attack, and some were lost in Rand's Altaran campaign too. Add the losses from the White Tower raid (where they seem to have lost more than they gained), and I'm hardly sure they can even match the Tower's Aes Sedai, let alone the Novice and Accepted numbers.

 

200 damane sent after Ituralde, 200 captured Wise Ones, they had 200 damane in Ebou Dar before Sea Folk uprising, whatever they captured from the WT raid and then you have to count all the damane spread out through their lands, either in outpost, or with armies, or in the major cities. Of course they can't send everything, and it's difficult to estimate the total size of the Seanchan armies, but considering how efficient they are at recruiting, I would be suprised if the can't outmatch the Aes Sedai in numbers. Probably not the with novices added in, but I imagine there are more damane then full Aes Sedai.

 

Selucia and Tuon planned for the attack to begin in the Tower. The Gateways will open to the Tower basements. Which means the Aes Sedai can very easily surround the Tower itself with their army, which can reach there much more quickly via huge Gateways.

 

Selucia made a suggestion that they could attack via the basements after witnessing the Gateways for the first time. That hardly means that's the entire plan.

 

Further, you don't need the Novices to be kept behind walls. Since the Seanchan won't be able to use shielding at all, they'll have to outright attack, which means the Aes Sedai can hit back from the get go. And the Aes Sedai hits are going to be significantly more powerful with their circles.

 

More powerful they might be, but power isn't everything. It might be impossible to shield the leader of the circle, but that channeller is still human, and only has one pair of eyes and a single brain, and, considering the Aes Sedai use their hand for a lot of weaves, only two hands. Unless she can react to every attack, everybody else in the cirle has no way of defending themselves, and there is no single weave that can account for every type of attack that can be used by the damane. Depending on the distance between the damane and the circle, and how spread out the damane, the leader of the circle could have a hard time reacting to everything. At the battle of Dumai's Wells, the Aes Sedai were at an advantage over the Wise Ones, not just because the Wise Ones were not very experienced in battle, but because the Wise Ones were way behind the front lines, and therefore the Aes Sedai had far more time to block their attacks than the Wise Ones did. The problem with circles is that it sacrifices flexibility, particularly defensively, in return for sheer power. In hallways such as in the WT, that won't matter as much since all the enemy attacks will be in your line of sight, which is part of the reason why Egwene's defense was so effective. But on a more open battlefield it'll be harder to respond in time to every attack. The death of a channeller in a linked cirlce might put the leader off balance as well. The most experienced channellers at fighting should be able to minimize the risk, but most Aes Sedai are not that experienced in battle, especially not with circles. Cadsuane herself pointed out the weakness of circles:

 

"A circle, Cadsuane?" the Gray asked.[...]"Should we link?"

"No, Niande," Cadsuane sighed. "If you see something, you must be able to strike at it without waiting to point it out for me.

 

Lastly, there's going to be no element of surprise this time. The exact timing of the attack might shock the Aes Sedai, but they aren't going to be woken from sleep by the attack, nor are most of them going to be completely clueless about the Seanchan. As such, their resistance is going to be a lot stiffer compared to before.

 

True, although with the Aes Sedai and the WT army away at the FoM, the Seanchan attack, if it happens, would come at the worst possible time. Still at least the Aes Sedai won't be running around like headless chicken this time. That said the Seanchan also gained something from the raid: the experience of having faced circles. The Seachan are famous for adapting to their enemy and they won't have failed to do so in this case.

 

So? As we saw with the Windfinders vs. the Black sisters, circles can simply overwhelm equal numbers of unlinked channelers. It doesn't matter that only one person is weaving when those weaves are going to be much more precise and powerful. Added to this, the Aes Sedai can simply mask their ability and strike from hidden locations without being detected.

 

The Black sisters also had an army charging straight at them, which is rather distracting, and were not aware that there were enemy channellers present. The distance between the two groups also favored the the Windfinders. The effectiveness of a circle varies. It depends on the where the fighting is taking place.

 

Lastly, the Aes Sedai will also have angreal and sa'angreal. Since these are warded in a secret location now, all it would take is for those in the know to gate in, extract all the 'greals, and give them out to the most skilled women in circles, and suddenly the Aes Sedai have even more fire power. And if the attack comes when most of the AS are in Merrilor, they'll be able to offer more organized resistance, with a remote base of operations.

 

You're quite right and there's not much to say here, except that like I said above, power isn't everything. It means you're impossible to shield, and give you great offensive ability, but an unnoticed attack can still cut you down as easely as a regular soldier, and in the chaos of battle it's not certain you'll notice every attack.

 

Not a chance. Unless Brandon forgets the superiority in numbers, skills and sheer OP strength the Aes Sedai have over the Seanchan, there's no way the Seanchan attack stands a chance. Perhaps if they forkrooted all the AS first...

 

I've already addressed the numbers above, and the Aes Sedai definitely have the advantage in firepower. However I don't see what you mean by skill. The damane are better at fighting and more experienced. One month isn't going to change that, no matter what Egwene does.

 

As for the Damane skills, do remember that once Egwene got them to link, even Novices were able to push the damane back in the WT raid.

 

Yes, because the battlefield was in their favor.

 

The rest of the Aes Sedai may not have the same amount of practice with destructive weaves, but they're the most skilled female channelers on the whole, and any Aes Sedai can copy a weave once she sees one.

 

They may be the most skilled all around, but that won't be any help in a battle.

 

Plus, Egwene has probably thought them all she learned of the damane weaves after the unification. This being Egwene, you can be sure she learned a lot, and also innovated a lot. At least, that would be in character. No clue if we actually will get that, though.

 

Well, that's just speculation, as we haven't seen Egwene doing that, and she's been rather busy. Of course so is my assumption that the Seanchan will have noticed the circles and adapted to them.

 

Just a comment on the WT's military machine. Pre-unification Elaida had 50K Tower Guards and Egwene had 70K under Bryne. After reunification, the WT tried to recruit and train new soldiers. How much could they have recruited in a month? 30K, 50K? My estimate is that the Tower has less than 200K in total forces, probably closer to 150K than 200K. But I don't expect the WT to have exceeded 200K.

They don't need more than that. For one thing, the Seanchan are unlikely to commit to more than that number to the WT attack anyway. If they do, they won't be able to bring in all those soldiers by Gateway either.

 

Elaida, or rather Alviarin, ordered the Tower Guard to be raised to 50K, however the city was came under siege, surely long before they could reach that number, and after that troops could only come in by ship. And once Egwene turned the chain to Cuendillar they couldn't even do that. There's no indication that it ever reached 50K as the Rebel army was always larger. They also lost a few soldier in the raid, but it was relatively few I believe. As for Gareth Bryne's army, it was 50K strong at the beginning of ToM. Considering the WT has only had a month to recruit after unification, and there's only so many men they can gather from around Tar Valon, the Seachan can likely send thrice as many troops against the WT as it can muster (they sent 300K against Ituralde), probably more if they're going to make a serious attempt at taking the WT. It's a risk, but Tuon seems determined to take it and I doubt she'll do things halfway. Of course there is still the issue of gateways.

[msbee]

Not sure if this has been discussed already but I have problems with Leilwin's line. Why is she looking for Elayne at FOM?? If she wanted Elayne she had plenty of opportunities to see her in Caemlyn. She spent several days in Caemlyn with Mat before leaving for Tar Valon and it's quite inconceivable that she would not find out in all that time who the queen of Andor was. So why travel all the way to Tar Valon and then to FOM?

 

I assumed that the full reality of the situation didn't hit her until she arrived at TV and saw lots of AS living ordinary lives, without destroying each other or their surroundings. Hence she decided to find Elayne after she got there. I still don't really get her logic after that though...

[Sharaman]

I never thought of the "Mark of the Chosen" either, but as I think on it that seems to only affect shadowspawn to varying degrees. People cannot seem to see it on the Forsaken when they speak with them. (Liandrin with Moghedien, Moghedien with Moridin, etc.)

 

I'm really drawing a blank on what kind of constraints could explain what happened and still be feasible.

 

Perhaps a kind of Compulsion that prevents the Samma N'Sei from getting too rowdy and blowing up the Town - a limit on how much of the Power they can use within the Town limits or something like that.

Or a Dreamspike type effect that prevents them Travelling or something else? (The Spike can do other unspecified things according to Mesaana's PoV).

It may not even be a Spike but simply a Compulsion laid on by the GLoD.

[Sharaman]

I never thought of the "Mark of the Chosen" either, but as I think on it that seems to only affect shadowspawn to varying degrees. People cannot seem to see it on the Forsaken when they speak with them. (Liandrin with Moghedien, Moghedien with Moridin, etc.)

 

I'm really drawing a blank on what kind of constraints could explain what happened and still be feasible.

 

Perhaps a kind of Compulsion that prevents the Samma N'Sei from getting too rowdy and blowing up the Town - a limit on how much of the Power they can use within the Town limits or something like that.

Or a Dreamspike type effect that prevents them Travelling or something else? (The Spike can do other unspecified things according to Mesaana's PoV).

It may not even be a Spike but simply a Compulsion laid on by the GLoD.