There Goes the Neighborhood (Game Thread) - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[John E. Kelley]

Oh no she di'nt!!

[Nolder]

But I'm the Mailman!

YOU NEED ME!!

[Gabriel Kross]

will you mail me a letter? or is the mailman like driving the shortbus?

[Nolder]

I'll decide at night who I want to send my letter to

[Gabriel Kross]

can I haz a letter? you are so scum if I get no letter!

[Nolder]

We'll see

[SBoydW]

Vote Count:

 

Ishy (1) - Songstress

Piano (1) - Christine

Christine (1) - Piano

EP (1) - peace

Nae (1) - Tina

Kae (1) - Ishy

Nyn (2) - Razen, Nolder

Tina (1) - BG

Arez (1) - Darthe

Little Miss (1) - Kae

BG (1) - Little Miss

Mynd (1) - EP

[Nynaeve]

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

 

Vote: Nyn

 

hehe. More like self pity. It's a new thing I'm trying out ^_^

 

 

 

Nyn

[Kaylee]

*Waves hello to all the faces that I haven't seen before*

[Nynaeve]

Oh and my traditional day 1 vote goes to number 8. Vote Nae

 

 

 

 

Nyn

[Basel Gill]

lol

 

I remember when Day 1 was 4 pages and spam was totally forbidden. Not that long ago.

 

I think that must have been well before my time.

[Myndrunner]

[Gabriel Kross]

oh look spam

[Razen]

They make it in Minnesota. Seriously.

[Myndrunner]

Its delicious everywhere!

[Little Miss]

This seems pretty normal from back when I played. Granted this was at least a year ago.

 

Mynd actually seems pretty calm in comparison to what I remember, although EP is a go getter kinda spazzy person.

 

Also, hello Kaylee! ^^ And all the others who's started since I left mafia games

[Lenlo]

Well hello! Nice to meet you new person who was here before me.

[Myndrunner]

I have an idea that I've been chewing on for the last few games, and this seems like the perfect one to try it. Screw casing and metagaming on day one, let's use raw numbers to figure out who to lynch on Day 1.

 

Ok, here is the roster:

 

1. Ishy

2. Nolder

3. Basel

4. Arez

5. Razen

6. BG

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano

12. Darthe

13. Sakaea

14. Pale

15. Kaylee

16. Christine

17. Levity

18. peace

19. Nynaeve

20. Tina

21. Key

22. EP

23. Little Miss

24. Mynd

 

24 player game. At worst, a 1/3 ratio is typically used for proper balance of non-town to town players. In a 24 player game like this, that would mean that there could be as many as 8 non-town players. These will of course include the mafia team (or teams) but could also include third party players such as solo-win, mercenaries, and symps. This also means we could have as good as a 1/3 chance of lynching a scummie on Day 1. Follow me so far? *nod your head*

 

Now, each of us that is town are 100% sure of one player who is town....that being ourselves. So, remove your own name from your list of players. That leaves 23 other players.

 

We don't need to figure out the entire mafia team today, just set the groundwork for hunting them later on. Trains built upon townie players will grow faster than those on mafia players, especially the closer we get to deadline. When we choose one or two players to build a train on, mafia will likely be reluctant to vote until about 24 hours before deadline, with the typical "Well, we don't want it to go random" or "well, for the sake of majority, I'll vote townieman..." Make sense?

 

So here is where it gets tricky, in a true Mat Cauthon tossing-the-dice sort of way. When playing blackjack in Vegas, I tried counting cards but I sucked at it. I then realized that I didn't have to count them so long as I followed what was likely going to happen. After playing several hands, I realized that lightening rarely struck twice. So, after the dealer got blackjack, I would double my bet on the following hand. When I would get blackjack, I would bet low on the following hand. Confusing you yet? Probably.

 

What I am trying to illustrate is that players who have been mafia in past games are less likely to be mafia again. Now, Verbal would be the first to swoop in and say "THATS NOT TRUE" and he would be right in raw numbers. If you flip a coin 50 times, the odds of it flipping heads on the 31st time are the same as the 1st. Therefore, the odds of flipping 50 heads is 1/2. The LIKELYHOOD is not that simple since it would only take one tails to ruin the entire gambit. Still with me? Hopefully this will make sense now.

 

Ask yourself this. When was the last time you were mafia in a previous game? How many times have you been back to back mafia? I'm sure its happened to some of us and the odds of one being mafia have nothing to do with previous games. The LIKELYHOOD however is different. Sure, many will argue semantics, but keep in mind we don't need to be precise but we need to go with who is MOST LIKELY mafia on Day 1. The same thing goes for newbies. Mods typically don't fill all of the mafia slots with newbie players even if random.org dictates it, but mods will likely have at least one on their team in the interest of balance.

 

I know what you all are thinking. STOP GAMING THE MOD! But isn't that what we do anyway? Isn't the whole point of scum-hunting is figuring out who is scum and who is town by any means necessary?

 

So, this is what I propose. We sort the list of players into groups. Who has been mafia in their last game and who hasn't. Or who is a newbie and who is a veteran. Or even whose name begins with A and whose does not. (Sound familiar?) It really doesn't matter how we sort it just so that we do sort them and then choose to lynch a player in the group that MOST LIKELY has mafia in it. I've played games with just about everyone on the list and some have been mafia and some have not.

 

Since I have yet to play a game where Eternal Phoenix has been scum......he fits my criteria for LIKELY being mafia in this game.

 

Therefore...... Eternal Phoenix

 

(The above is not a PR, but something I have actually been thinking about for several games.)

[Levity]

I was mafia seven times in a row once, and town tracker three times in a row.

 

That being said, it's a really good set of thoughts (but not something I would rely on, though that's merely my personal opinion).

 

I'd offer more of my opinion on that--I don't have time right now, but I will later.

[Darthe]

I have an idea that I've been chewing on for the last few games, and this seems like the perfect one to try it. Screw casing and metagaming on day one, let's use raw numbers to figure out who to lynch on Day 1.

 

Ok, here is the roster:

 

1. Ishy

2. Nolder

3. Basel

4. Arez

5. Razen

6. BG

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano

12. Darthe

13. Sakaea

14. Pale

15. Kaylee

16. Christine

17. Levity

18. peace

19. Nynaeve

20. Tina

21. Key

22. EP

23. Little Miss

24. Mynd

 

24 player game. At worst, a 1/3 ratio is typically used for proper balance of non-town to town players. In a 24 player game like this, that would mean that there could be as many as 8 non-town players. These will of course include the mafia team (or teams) but could also include third party players such as solo-win, mercenaries, and symps. This also means we could have as good as a 1/3 chance of lynching a scummie on Day 1. Follow me so far? *nod your head*

 

Now, each of us that is town are 100% sure of one player who is town....that being ourselves. So, remove your own name from your list of players. That leaves 23 other players.

 

We don't need to figure out the entire mafia team today, just set the groundwork for hunting them later on. Trains built upon townie players will grow faster than those on mafia players, especially the closer we get to deadline. When we choose one or two players to build a train on, mafia will likely be reluctant to vote until about 24 hours before deadline, with the typical "Well, we don't want it to go random" or "well, for the sake of majority, I'll vote townieman..." Make sense?

 

So here is where it gets tricky, in a true Mat Cauthon tossing-the-dice sort of way. When playing blackjack in Vegas, I tried counting cards but I sucked at it. I then realized that I didn't have to count them so long as I followed what was likely going to happen. After playing several hands, I realized that lightening rarely struck twice. So, after the dealer got blackjack, I would double my bet on the following hand. When I would get blackjack, I would bet low on the following hand. Confusing you yet? Probably.

 

What I am trying to illustrate is that players who have been mafia in past games are less likely to be mafia again. Now, Verbal would be the first to swoop in and say "THATS NOT TRUE" and he would be right in raw numbers. If you flip a coin 50 times, the odds of it flipping heads on the 31st time are the same as the 1st. Therefore, the odds of flipping 50 heads is 1/2. The LIKELYHOOD is not that simple since it would only take one tails to ruin the entire gambit. Still with me? Hopefully this will make sense now.

 

Ask yourself this. When was the last time you were mafia in a previous game? How many times have you been back to back mafia? I'm sure its happened to some of us and the odds of one being mafia have nothing to do with previous games. The LIKELYHOOD however is different. Sure, many will argue semantics, but keep in mind we don't need to be precise but we need to go with who is MOST LIKELY mafia on Day 1. The same thing goes for newbies. Mods typically don't fill all of the mafia slots with newbie players even if random.org dictates it, but mods will likely have at least one on their team in the interest of balance.

 

I know what you all are thinking. STOP GAMING THE MOD! But isn't that what we do anyway? Isn't the whole point of scum-hunting is figuring out who is scum and who is town by any means necessary?

 

So, this is what I propose. We sort the list of players into groups. Who has been mafia in their last game and who hasn't. Or who is a newbie and who is a veteran. Or even whose name begins with A and whose does not. (Sound familiar?) It really doesn't matter how we sort it just so that we do sort them and then choose to lynch a player in the group that MOST LIKELY has mafia in it. I've played games with just about everyone on the list and some have been mafia and some have not.

 

Since I have yet to play a game where Eternal Phoenix has been scum......he fits my criteria for LIKELY being mafia in this game.

 

Therefore...... Eternal Phoenix

 

(The above is not a PR, but something I have actually been thinking about for several games.)

 

I agree with this but think you may have the wrong game since he is in two others that he is still alive in. Also, I feel like I just went through MAFIA 101 with Mynd. Statistically speaking though, He has a 33% chance of being non-town, and in three games that he has those odds that is equivalent to a .11 chance of being scum in any particular game. I like where your head is Mynd (because you are thinking the way i do =p) but lets not hastily form this train. The poor boy is starting to look a lot like Blackhoof ;)

 

Also, lets see who jumps on this since yours was so obvious.

[Gabriel Kross]

very astute argument there Mynd it's to bad you're on the wrong track

[Gabriel Kross]

If I used your logic you'd be at the top of my list as well, all and all very ellaborate OMGUS if I do say so myself

[Christine]

I can rock with that Mynd.

 

 

I am on my way to the hospital. Pain is worse.

 

 

Party hard, my peeps.

[bgrishinko]

Heh. The names begins with "A" stunt was a good one. And it worked!

 

I remember when I tried to go numbers on people once and everyone got mad and confused (except Wombat). I went too deep (*BBBWWWWAAAARRRR*) and people thought I was trying to confuse them. Oh well.

 

That being said, it is as good a place as any for Day 1, but I SEVERELY doubt that you will completely screw casing and metagaming all together.

 

Vote Eternal Phoenix.

[bgrishinko]

Dear Mod:

 

I unvoted Tina a while ago.

 

Thanks,

 

BG