Census : Randland 996NE

[Nightstrike]

AoL used energy. We use energy. Same thing, in that regard. Two rivers farmers don't use energy of either kind. You can't get something if you've got nothing to work with. If you lack something, nitrogen for instance, then that will be your limit.

 

Humans were plant breeders for thousands of years before 1900. Pretty efficient ones, too. The crops people had 1900 were well suited for those conditions.

 

Since WoT is fantasy, I guess this doesn't matter much. The sun doesn't go nova, and they probably don't grow dwarf wheat in the two rivers.

[DaoineSidhe]

In the AoL, they used "seed singing" to enhance their plants. I somehow doubt they really needed to think about "engineering" better seeds. Any old seed would work, because once planted, they would just have a Nym, some Ogier and some Aiel go the field and sing to the seeds, making them disease proof, higher yielding, and many other benefits. As such, without the seed singing, I wonder how much better the genetics of the seeds from AoL legacy would be than what we had in 1900.

[Maleshub]

Another point on medieval militarization is the difference between men fit for military service and actual standing forces. The former is about a third of the population while the latter is much, much lower (maximum 7% - 10% of men fit for service). Here is an interesting link on the subject but about the empires in 500 AD.

 

The Borderlanders' armies (4 nations) marching to find Rand totaled 200K troops, meaning that each monarch brought about 50K troops down south. My guess is that each monarch left at least 50K troops in his/her capital and another 10-20K troops guarding the border and other strategic areas. A Borderlander nation's standing army would be about 100K of seasoned and professional soldiers.

 

If we compare that with the death of Malkier 50 years before, Lan's uncle took 6-7K lances into the Blight, about a third of half of Malkier's military strength. Meaning that Malkier's standing army had a maximum strength of about 30K troops.

 

Anyway, the Borderlander nations would probably have a larger part of its population in its standing army and would have a larger percentage of its population in the "men fit for military service" category.

 

As to Andor, Elayne's reference to Andor's military might was about men fit for military service, not standing army. We know that Gaebril discharged most Morgase loyalists; Guybon brought back 10K to Caemlyn during the siege; and I'll venture to say that he couldn't reach another 10-30K in other parts of Andor. If these estimates are acceptable, then the Queen's Guards were in the 30K-50K range as a standing army.

 

If we take a threshold of 10% as reflecting the percentage of the population that the standing army represents, then Borderland nations have about 1 million population each. And if we say that the standing army is only 5% of the population, then the population hovers around 2 million people in each of the 4 kingdoms.

 

Southern nations would have a lower percentage of standing army in the population. Andor's standing army would probably be in the 2-3% range, indicating that Andor's population might be in the 2-3 million range.

[Orange7]

Honestly. I think we can estimate that there are approximately 13-16 million people on the main continent of Randland from the Spine to the Aryth Ocean, and that about 140,000 of them are darkfriends.

 

 

Reasoning:

 

-Given that the two largest cities combined total 800,000 (Tar Valon - 500,000, Caemlyn - 300,000), and none of the other great cities (Tear, Illian, Cairhien, Ebou Dar, Bandar Eban, Tanchico, Amador, Maradon, Chachin, Shol Abera, Fal Moran, Lugard, Jehannah, and Far Madding)  have more than 300,000, we can determine that the major urban population among the great cities is less than 5.0 million. Considering the state of several of these (Ebou Dar, Jehannah, Amadicia, Far Madding, Lugard), and the fact that only a few of them possibly come close to the size of Caemlyn, I would wager that the total population is likely 4.2 million.

-Assuming that another 1.4 million live in smaller cities, such as Baerlon, Samara, Whitebridge, Four Kings, etc. puts us at 5.6 million.

-Then, we assume that about 60% of people are farmers, or live in rural areas in Randland. That would put the total population of Randland (Excluding Aiel and Seanchan) at about 14.0 million.

-I would give this an error of 2 million upward and one million lower for the following reasons:

      -Cairhien, for example, has almost no rural population since the Aiel war, and Ghealdan's was recently decimated, while Murandy and Andor both have thriving rural populations. Any of these could skew rural population estimates somewhat (Perhaps by 1 million in either direction).

      -In addition, the smaller cities could likely also be slightly off, and there may be an error of up to 1 million upward (extremely unlikely to be greater error than that).

[Agitel]

There have to be far more than 14 million people in the westlands, that area is significantly more than twice the size of Europe, and we're talking about a fifteenth-seventeenth century level of technology, but certainly better health standards (a legacy from the Age of Legends). Fourteen million makes no sense. I would have to estimate over 100,000 million, and that would not require everywhere to be densely populated either. I certainly couldn't even entertain arguments for anything less than 50 million. France alone had a population over 15 million by 1500, and we're talking about a landmass so much greater than that. Even if the westlands are for, whatever reason, more sparsely populated, let's not give credence to such ridiculously low numbers.

[David Selig]

  Jordan said Andor alone has a population of 10 million.

[avernite]

Plus, of course estimating a whopping 40% living in the BIG cities is, well... unlikely. Given the numbers shown earlier, 10-15% seems like the upper limit (except maybe in Cairhien). Also I would imagine Baerlon, Malden, So Habor et al. have significantly more population than indicated.

 

If we assume the many small cities balance the BIG cities, we would get a total urban population of 10 million, and with the 10% estimate, already 100 million randlanders. These numbers really escalate quickly depending on assumptions about the other cities, or the level of urbanisation of Randland.

[Kamin_Majere]

Old thread, but i'll bite

 

Yeah 13-16 million is impossibly small.  Assuming we get a 8/92 split between urban and rural and the size of Randland i'd put the minimum number at about 71 million, and the maximum at about 200 million.  But people already in the thread have pretty much made all of the points that support this and other numbers.  If randland is about twice the size of Europe then it has a land mass of about 7.8 million square miles if 71 million is right then that's only a population density of 9ish people per square mile(3,096,700 square foot per person), even doubling that to 150 million population you only get 18 people per square mile (1,548,350 square foot per person)

 

The reason that the population of the world isnt really broken down is because the story starts to lose something or its wonder.  If 1% are channelers and 1/2 of those male and even if only 1 out of every 100 spark then you would have a massive amount of men going crazy and tearing the world to pieces even now.  You are looking at 7500 male sparkers and 742500 males that can learn to channel per generation... no way that the Red Ajah could handle that (assuming a 150 million population)

 

I'd just take it as fuzzy math and mostly ignore it.

[Charlz Guybon]

 

Jordan stated that Tar Valon has around 500,000 whilst cities like Caemlyn and Tear has more along the lines of 300,000. Beyond that numbers are a bit uncertain.

My previous guess wasn't that bad then.

 

We have very little evidence about populations in randland, but we do know more about the aiel. The combined aiel armies including the shaido was nearing 1 million, since the majority were men except the maidens you can probably guess there are more than 2x that many aiel, so at least 2 million aiel in the waste. I would guess though that randland is much denser population even though it is all wilderness. So still expect tens of millions there.

When you say "tens" I have a hard time picturing more than 20, frankly I don't think its even that. If the above claim about TV and capitals is true, it should be closer to 10 or maybe even less. Look at the number of nations and how few "big" cities there are in addition to the capitals. Most capitals are likely to be smaller than Caemlyn but say 300,000 each and there is 500,000 (TV) + 13*300,000) = 4.4 million (this should be exaggerated enough to include independent regions/cities like Falme, Two Rivers etc). Add Mayene and Far Madding at 300,000 each (doubtfully) and we are at 5 million. If the population in nations outside the capitals match the capitals we are at 8.9 million. If the population outside capitals is twice the capitals we are at 12.8 million.

 

 

I can't in any way vouch for what I just wrote (its way too rough and sloppy) but given the claim i based it on I'm already exaggerating a lot (assuming every capital is the same population as Caemlyn which they are clearly not). In short, I don't think the 500k + 300k claim can support a population above 15 million no matter how you count, in fact it indicates an even lower population.

 

In a preindustrial society, the ratio of rural to urban is 9 to 1. Just taking the capitals into account you can extrapolate a population near 100 million, that's not even taking into account smaller cities and towns (which would be considered urban areas).

 

Back in the days of the Ten Nations and Free Years the Westlands were probably as thickly populated as 14th century France or 18th century China. So on a huge subcontinent like that (6million sq. miles) you'd have several hundreds of millions of people.

 

It's the only way to support that many big cities and the huge armies that are thrown around.

 

For example, France in 1345 had 20 million people (about 75 people for sq. mile). Now they couldn't muster a huge army because they weren't centralized enough, nor had the logistical capabilities of later peoples.

Just 50 people per sq. mile would leave the Westlands with 300 million people. Now the whole of the land isn't populated due to the large decline of civilization in the west.  But the nations that do exist likely have populations in the high single digit millions, some of them above 10.

 

It just gives you an idea what a big Trolloc problem they'll have. BS is right, orders of magnitude more Trollocs than the Blight can support. That's the only way the Shadow would have been able to fight Ten Nations that could raise armies on the scale of Napoleonic France, the Aiel and Sharan Empire at the same time for 350 years. Nations that could coordinate as well or better than Napoleonic France. We see the optical telegraph system on the blight border in modern nations. That surely existed back then, and likely on a larger scale, and of course there were the Ways and Dreamwalkers, both Aiel and Aes Sedai. The Shadow must have had millions of Trollocs in the field at the same time to sustain such a conflict.

[rand4747]

I suspect that Randland is much higher urbanised than it should be for pre industrial. The worlds populations have been declining yet the cities that exist are full and infact larger than they used to be, But also that people have been overestimating the size of most of the cities, some of them might be in the hundreds of thousands populations but i think most are significantly smaller. But i do believe there are more cities and towns although very small compared to whats named than are shown.

[Charlz Guybon]

The worlds populations have been declining yet the cities that exist are full and infact larger than they used to be, But also that people have been overestimating the size of most of the cities, some of them might be in the hundreds of thousands populations but i think most are significantly smaller.

There are half as many great cities now as there were in the days of the Ten Nations.

 

There are 16 now including Tar Valon, maybe 17 depending on how big Katar is. We don't really know, but there are lords there with power enough to try and challenge the rule of Arad Doman.

 

The Ten Nations had 36 Ogier built cities including Tar Valon.

 

In peace time Tar Valon has 500,000 people, Caemlyn 300,000. Most of the cities are compared in size to Caemlyn. From a little bigger (Tanchicho), to about the same size (Tear). Lan compared Chachin in size to Tear. And if IIRC Bandar Eban and Far Madding aren't quite as big as Caemlyn.

 

Since then most of the cities have swelled with refugees.

[ReaderofWot]

I suspect that Randland is much higher urbanised than it should be for pre industrial. The worlds populations have been declining yet the cities that exist are full and infact larger than they used to be, But also that people have been overestimating the size of most of the cities, some of them might be in the hundreds of thousands populations but i think most are significantly smaller. But i do believe there are more cities and towns although very small compared to whats named than are shown.

I don't see any evidence that would suggest Randland is heavily urbanized. Even with less control over the continent and more wilderness than they had before, they have huge amounts of space to settle and work with, and there are plenty of villages on the tiny fractions of the continent that we've seen. As for size estimates of the cities, it was explicitly stated in an interview that the major cities average around 300,000, and that has been the basis for half the estimates in this forum.

[Charlz Guybon]

As for the size of cities, here's something I found on medieval population densities (although the setting is more 17-18th century without gunpowder)

 

http://www222.pair.com/sjohn/blueroom/demog.htm

 

 

Cities and towns of the Middle Ages cover one square mile of land per 38,850 people, on average. This is a density of about 61 per acre or 150 per hectare, so the land within the walls of a typical city of 10,000 would be 165 acres—hardly a city by modern standards, in terms of population OR size. Some very large cities may have had up to twice this density.

 

 

Given the size of the cities involved (Tar Valon is 8 miles long and 2 wide at it's widest), a population of 700,000 is definitely plausible, especially given the city's superior architecture. Far Madding is considerably smaller according to the scale, it might have only 250,000 people. Tanchicho is big,  5-600,000 people, is certainly a possibility.  Unfortunately the maps of Cairhien and Caemlyn don't have scales on them, however IIRC Elayne thought Tanchico was about the same size as Caemlyn, maybe a little larger. Ebou Dar seems pretty large when you include the Rahad, maybe 4-500,000.

[Entreri]

Population of this world is very small,  I would be shocked if it apporached anywhere near 500 million, which is the population of Earth in 1500 AD...this was mainly due to China and India.  Take those two countries away, the pop would come around 200 million. 

 

Thus if I had to guess, 200 million tops for WoT.  

 

Mainland Randland has been devasted by various wars...Population 30-40 million.  Shara, can't be more than 20 million (Shara is mostly a wasteland with little green vegatation accorinding to the map).

 

The large population center would be in the Seanchan mainland, where there are no Trolloc Hordes/Trolloc Wars, but still, can't be more than 100 million (but at least 50 million), the rest of the population is scattered around the world. 

 

Only in modern times has the population been concentrated in the cities.  So even if Tar Valon is only 500,000, the surrounding countryside could bump that up to 3-4 million and so on. 

[Suttree]

Andor has 10 million. I suppose people could make some rough guesses based on that...

 

Interview: Dec 5th, 2000

WH Signing Report - Br00se (Paraphrased)

Br00se

The next question dealt with the sizes of the countries and cities.

Robert Jordan

The larger cities had between 300K and 600K. Tar Valon has 700K people. Andor has a population of 10 million.

[Entreri]

Andor has 10 million. I suppose people could make some rough guesses based on that...

 

Interview: Dec 5th, 2000

WH Signing Report - Br00se (Paraphrased)

Br00se

The next question dealt with the sizes of the countries and cities.

Robert Jordan

The larger cities had between 300K and 600K. Tar Valon has 700K people. Andor has a population of 10 million.

 

With 10 million figure, Randland can have 100 million and world population of around 300 million is not out of the question.  Pretty shocking considering the wars and devastation. 

[Barid Bel Medar]

Andor has 10 million. I suppose people could make some rough guesses based on that...

 

Interview: Dec 5th, 2000

WH Signing Report - Br00se (Paraphrased)

Br00se

The next question dealt with the sizes of the countries and cities.

Robert Jordan

The larger cities had between 300K and 600K. Tar Valon has 700K people. Andor has a population of 10 million.

 

With 10 million figure, Randland can have 100 million and world population of around 300 million is not out of the question.  Pretty shocking considering the wars and devastation. 

 

I would say that it would be a lot larger than that if we are going to base an estimation off that. 

 

The Seanchan continent is twice as large and at least twice as populated as Randland part of the world. In fact - land of madmen aside - it wouldn't be a stretch to say that it is the least populated area of the world. 

 

The brunt of the Shadow's attack has been on this part of the land. The Blight is focused there, near Shayol Ghul. The Blight around Seanchan was almost completely destroyed, and all indications point to the Sharan Blight being less than the mainland. The Trolloc Wars and Post-Hawkwing demise was focused mainly on Randland. 

 

With all the shrinking kingdoms and diminishing populations in Randland - Seanchan being twice the size has been largely unified for the past 1000 years (minor and even major rebellions aside - Seanchan power has not diminished [at least until Semirhage]) and - if we can believe the information - Shara has been whole since the Breaking (again, failed rebellions aside). This type of unified power promotes population growth and expansion. 

 

So I would say that if Andor has 10million, 100 mil would be a relatively good estimate.

 

For a more conservative approach, I'll lessen it to around 70 million. Seanchan would be around 250-500 million and Shara 150-350 million. Add on 50 million for the Sea Folk/any Islanders/ LoM/ other possible populations, you have a conservative estimate of 520 million, and anything between 520 and 1 billion. (the maximum estimate) 

[Entreri]

Andor has 10 million. I suppose people could make some rough guesses based on that...

 

Interview: Dec 5th, 2000

WH Signing Report - Br00se (Paraphrased)

Br00se

The next question dealt with the sizes of the countries and cities.

Robert Jordan

The larger cities had between 300K and 600K. Tar Valon has 700K people. Andor has a population of 10 million.

 

With 10 million figure, Randland can have 100 million and world population of around 300 million is not out of the question.  Pretty shocking considering the wars and devastation. 

 

I would say that it would be a lot larger than that if we are going to base an estimation off that. 

 

The Seanchan continent is twice as large and at least twice as populated as Randland part of the world. In fact - land of madmen aside - it wouldn't be a stretch to say that it is the least populated area of the world. 

 

The brunt of the Shadow's attack has been on this part of the land. The Blight is focused there, near Shayol Ghul. The Blight around Seanchan was almost completely destroyed, and all indications point to the Sharan Blight being less than the mainland. The Trolloc Wars and Post-Hawkwing demise was focused mainly on Randland. 

 

With all the shrinking kingdoms and diminishing populations in Randland - Seanchan being twice the size has been largely unified for the past 1000 years (minor and even major rebellions aside - Seanchan power has not diminished [at least until Semirhage]) and - if we can believe the information - Shara has been whole since the Breaking (again, failed rebellions aside). This type of unified power promotes population growth and expansion. 

 

So I would say that if Andor has 10million, 100 mil would be a relatively good estimate.

 

For a more conservative approach, I'll lessen it to around 70 million. Seanchan would be around 250-500 million and Shara 150-350 million. Add on 50 million for the Sea Folk/any Islanders/ LoM/ other possible populations, you have a conservative estimate of 520 million, and anything between 520 and 1 billion. (the maximum estimate) 

You could well be right in the 500 million.

 

What I find very strange is how small the armies are.  Even at 250 million, the Seanchan should be fielding armies that number in the millions, they forever to prepare to come to the mainland.   And the rest of Randland, the armies are pretty small, given the state of affairs (Aiel War, the Blight, tension between various nations).  

 

For example, the US and Seanchan are similar military powerhouses, but Seanchan military seems quite small.  The US had over 15 million enlisted in WWII with a population about half the size of the Seanchan (250 million).  And in non war time, population of 300M, the US can call up 7 million. 

[Charlz Guybon]

Andor has 10 million. I suppose people could make some rough guesses based on that...

 

Interview: Dec 5th, 2000

WH Signing Report - Br00se (Paraphrased)

Br00se

The next question dealt with the sizes of the countries and cities.

Robert Jordan

The larger cities had between 300K and 600K. Tar Valon has 700K people. Andor has a population of 10 million.

 

With 10 million figure, Randland can have 100 million and world population of around 300 million is not out of the question.  Pretty shocking considering the wars and devastation. 

 

I would say that it would be a lot larger than that if we are going to base an estimation off that. 

 

The Seanchan continent is twice as large and at least twice as populated as Randland part of the world. In fact - land of madmen aside - it wouldn't be a stretch to say that it is the least populated area of the world. 

 

The brunt of the Shadow's attack has been on this part of the land. The Blight is focused there, near Shayol Ghul. The Blight around Seanchan was almost completely destroyed, and all indications point to the Sharan Blight being less than the mainland. The Trolloc Wars and Post-Hawkwing demise was focused mainly on Randland. 

 

With all the shrinking kingdoms and diminishing populations in Randland - Seanchan being twice the size has been largely unified for the past 1000 years (minor and even major rebellions aside - Seanchan power has not diminished [at least until Semirhage]) and - if we can believe the information - Shara has been whole since the Breaking (again, failed rebellions aside). This type of unified power promotes population growth and expansion. 

 

So I would say that if Andor has 10million, 100 mil would be a relatively good estimate.

 

For a more conservative approach, I'll lessen it to around 70 million. Seanchan would be around 250-500 million and Shara 150-350 million. Add on 50 million for the Sea Folk/any Islanders/ LoM/ other possible populations, you have a conservative estimate of 520 million, and anything between 520 and 1 billion. (the maximum estimate) 

You could well be right in the 500 million.

 

What I find very strange is how small the armies are.  Even at 250 million, the Seanchan should be fielding armies that number in the millions, they forever to prepare to come to the mainland.   And the rest of Randland, the armies are pretty small, given the state of affairs (Aiel War, the Blight, tension between various nations).  

 

For example, the US and Seanchan are similar military powerhouses, but Seanchan military seems quite small.  The US had over 15 million enlisted in WWII with a population about half the size of the Seanchan (250 million).  And in non war time, population of 300M, the US can call up 7 million. 

 

You can't compare them to industrial states. Napoleonic France is a better comparison, and the armies mustered given the populations are similar.

[Thrasymachus]

What bugs me about these estimates is the discrepancy with the numbers of channelers running around.  RJ has said numerous times that channelers comprise about 1-2% of the population, so with a main Randland population of 100 million, there should be a million channelers running around.  If that's evenly split between males and females, that's 500,000 female channelers.  Prior to the Eye of the World, the White Tower boasted, what 1-2000 members?  That's 0.4% of the overall female channelers, and that seems a bit ridiculous.  They should do better than that, even just sticking with the women who come to them and not bothering to search members out.  If there are 700,000 people in Tar Valon, there should be 3500 women who can channel living there not taking into account the White Tower itself.  Even if only a fifth of them are strong enough to become Aes Sedai, that's still almost half the current membership of the White Tower.

 

The Seanchan, potentially boasting 300 million, should be walking around with 1.5 million damane and suldam, and if there's 4 suldam for every damane, that's an awe-inspiring 300,000 damane to back their Ever-Victorious Army.  No wonder they're Ever-Victorious.  Even taking only a quarter of their damane with them in the Return, they should be able to swamp the Aes Sedai and Ashaman with the resulting 75,000 damane at their disposal.  Instead, they are depicted as having maybe 5000 damane at most, being generous, and many of those having been collected on this side of the Aryth.  Weird.

[Charlz Guybon]

The number of learners to sparkers is something like 50 to 1 though.  So that's 30 thousand damane, not 1.5 million.

[Entreri]

"Napoleonic France is a better comparison".

 

French population was around 30 million in 1800 and Napolean military might was well over 500,000 at it's height.

 

The number of channelers is pretty strange as well...Even with only 30,000 damane, we haven't seen a 1000 Seanchan damane force.  They would have brought a very sizeable damane force considering the White Tower...

[Charlz Guybon]

"Napoleonic France is a better comparison".

 

French population was around 30 million in 1800 and Napolean military might was well over 500,000 at it's height.

 

The number of channelers is pretty strange as well...Even with only 30,000 damane, we haven't seen a 1000 Seanchan damane force.  They would have brought a very sizeable damane force considering the White Tower...

 

Looking at Andor, that's proportionately very similar.  The Ten Nations likely had similar populations and armies on average as that, which once again points to the ungodly massive number of Trollocs that must have been involved in the Trolloc Wars.

 

There were 200 damane in Ebou Dar alone, and that was hardly the front lines. There was mention of damane in camps around the city as well. Clearly the Seanchan brought a great many damane over to the Westlands. Certainly more than one thousand.

[MasterAblar]

"Napoleonic France is a better comparison".

 

French population was around 30 million in 1800 and Napolean military might was well over 500,000 at it's height.

 

The number of channelers is pretty strange as well...Even with only 30,000 damane, we haven't seen a 1000 Seanchan damane force.  They would have brought a very sizeable damane force considering the White Tower...

The troops in Napoleon's army were not all french though. At the height of Napoleon's power, before the invasion of Russia, he had 600 000 troops in the Grande Armée. Only alround half of those were french (or dutch). About a 6th of them were polish, the rest being austrian, italian, portugese, croatian, swiss, and various german nationalities.

[Charlz Guybon]

There were French armies in Spain and spread elsewhere garrisoning Europe. They weren't all in central Europe preparing to invade Russia.