Why Verin didn't want Mat at the battle of Caemlyn

[Cat-Sister]

Just a thought-not sure if anyone else has had it....

 

I was just thinking that it did not make sense for Verin to leave the fate of Caemlyn up to Mat in a gamble of her own...she could easily have given warning to anyone or multiple people....

 

So did she then have some sort of information regarding a possible "twist of fate/the pattern" that would have ended badly with Mat being at FoM when the battle began? Perhaps this letter was to trick Mat into going to rescue Moiraine at the appropriate time, or maybe just to keep him away to avoid a tragic future in some area for either him or the pattern?...It just doesnt't seem like the reason was that "simple" as Verin was never a simple or straightforward character.

[Sid]

Verin has absolutely no idea about Moiraine.

 

I believe she intended for him to get the message and save Caemlyn. She just screwed up. (which will probably end up saving the world)

 

Giving up half the light of the world to save the world vs. saving Caemlyn. There's no way he made the wrong choice as things stand now, but if he knew what was in the letter he might have.

[Cutlass]

I think there was more to it that we havn't seen yet... "the dice" never gave any indication of the seriousness in her letter to Mat.

 

It is entirely possible that Verin made a mistake - but remember; Verin beleived Mat's tavereness pulled her to him for a reason, and she would have had that in mind when she was writing the letter to him. It seems to me that Verin put a lot of faith in the pattern doing what needs to be done and left the letter in Mat's hand for fate to decide.

 

Of course - Verin being Verin, I am dilligantly awaiting some other information to surface that she had planned it this way all along. Its quirks like this that make her one of the better characters in the series.

 

 

[Superhal]

The two parts of the poll don't make sense.

 

Verin's original intention was to take care of Camelyn by herself a day or two at most after she sent Mat through a TP, but she was anticipating that she might have to die at the meeting with Egwene. She did not expect Mat's involvement with the invasion at all. Her letter clearly stated that his only role was to convince Elayne of the danger if she didn't return promptly.

 

But, if you are asking about the original conversation between Mat and Verin where her stipulation was to wait 30 days before opening the letter, than yes, she expected him to be there when the trollocs arrived. However, her plan couldn't work when Mat only agreed to wait 20 days. Therefore, she had not intention of Mat being the one to face the invasion.

[FarShainMael]

I voted yes, because I'm of much the same mind as Toy'v. I don't think it can have been Moiraine that Verin was thinking about, so that leaves the question of why.. Hmm. Tricky. I'll have to think on't.

[Atan Lodorn]

The two parts of the poll don't make sense.

 

Verin's original intention was to take care of Camelyn by herself a day or two at most after she sent Mat through a TP, but she was anticipating that she might have to die at the meeting with Egwene. She did not expect Mat's involvement with the invasion at all. Her letter clearly stated that his only role was to convince Elayne of the danger if she didn't return promptly.

 

But, if you are asking about the original conversation between Mat and Verin where her stipulation was to wait 30 days before opening the letter, than yes, she expected him to be there when the trollocs arrived. However, her plan couldn't work when Mat only agreed to wait 20 days. Therefore, she had not intention of Mat being the one to face the invasion.

 

I think Mat's Tavereness? made him state 20 days. The pattern knew Mat would be needed to save Moiraine to give up half the light of the world, just look how much his luck increased, also there are still alot of mercs around and some of the band. Also the DO I don't think has any idea of the cannons plus they don't know how to use the correctly either. If you have played with cannons or read up on them they take specific amounts of gunpowder too much its a bomb that explodes, too little and the ball doesn't reach the intended target. I'm not worried about the cannons, Mat needs to be alive to re blow the horn.

[Leyrann]

I voted "no", but for another reason. She wanted him to destroy the Waygate.

[Superhal]

I think Mat's Tavereness? made him state 20 days.

 

Didn't matter. Logically, because Verin agreed to the 20 days (regardless of why Mat chose it) she knew he wouldn't be guaranteed to be in Camelyn during the invasion.

[Cat-Sister]

Just to clarify what my point was to this...

I believe that Verin may have (in some way I do not know) known how the pattern was going to play out IF Mat was around for the Caemlyn invasion, and perhaps knew that this letter would alter the outcome in some way...I just thought that her "intending" for Mat to open the letter didn't make sense, she's been to clever to have left something important with him with the idea that if he opened it he would be obliged to basically do as an Aes Sedai said/be trapped into something...Mat Cauthon does not like to be forced into anything..

..the only other reason I could think of on the opposite side of this was she felt that the letter was a "chance" and Mat Cauthon's luck could help the right course of action to take place (whatever that might ultimately entail)

OR maybe she just thought curiosity would get the better of him and he WOULD open it in her assumption...

[Superhal]

Overall her plan was full of holes and no plausible outcome could have been achieved by giving Mat the letter. It made absolutely no sense for her to do what she did. What she should have done was just ask him to deliver the warning to Elayne.

 

The only way her plan possibly would make even the slightest shred of sense is that she somehow had a buttload of portal visions, and this series of actions resulted in the best outcome.

 

Or, her plan was to allow Elayne to leave with her entire army and let the trollocs invade, in which case sending any warning at all was a complete waste of time.

[Rivirland]

I personally explained it this way:

 

Verin knows about Mat's ta'veren-luck. She realises Mat would see opening the letter as a gamble: he doesn't know what he's gonna get, it can be awful and it can be awesome. But because of his luck, it will go the way that is best for Mat/the world (which makes sense if you see how the letter was opened, it was just some kind of coincidence that the letter opened).

 

So she didn't really have an intention, she just trusted the pattern :)

[rand4747]

she could not betray the plan or she would have told him outright or done it herself. She had to get him to open it after shes either dead or she takes it back when she returns free of the oaths. It was very hard for her to get around the oathes to let him know.

[lordofsoup]

Her intention was to get him to get some Aes Sedai to seal the waygate.

[FarShainMael]

@Cat-Sister and Toy'varen: I wonder if Verin has managed to go through the Rhuidean rings? As a Brown, she would be thirsty for knowledge anyway; as a 'double-agent' in the BA ranks she would certainly want to go there, I think.

[Knoell]

I can't quote the exact part but doesn't Verin comment on her confidence that Mat wouldn't be able to resist opening the letter?

 

Also she couldn't just tell him straight out because it would be betraying the shadow. This also explains the time restriction she placed on it. She had to wait until she poisened herself, but she could of told Egwene then so I don't know.

[Thorgan]

She could've just make him promise to stay in Caemlyn and open the letter if she doesn't come back to take it withing 10 days. Mat would gladly give warning about a trolloc attack even without a promise.

[DemandredFO]

What if there was a prophecy we don't know but Verin does. A possible reason Verin may have let the attack go was that she sees the world still in choas; Amarlyn against Dragon against seanchan with various others somewhere in the middle.

[FarShainMael]

I had the truly outrageous thought that perhaps Verin really is Black, and she wanted to stop Mat from getting the HoV and taking it to the LB..

 

see

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/62112-verins-gamble/page__st__20__p__1911364

 

(post 25, if that link doesn't work right)

[Cat-Sister]

...I really feel this plan feels rather "vague" and if you recall she was always mistakenly referred to as "vague"...she wore her vagueness as a mask, and I still get the sense that her letters had a bigger purpose to serve...

[FarShainMael]

I agree.. I'm just wondering if it was Light's purpose, or the Shadow's!

[Negawonka]

I think Verin hedged her bet with Mat. Either he would open the letter and prevent the Trollocs from being able to invade or he would hopefully at least be in the area long enough to be present when the Trollocs did attack. I also think her stipulation that he had to read it was just to make sure he didn't open it right then and there. It was a gamble, but it was probably also the best way to make sure he didn't open it right then and there AND could have a chance of opening it later.

 

There is no way she could have known about Moraine.

[Yates_]

Verin wants the Invasion of Caemlyn to succeed. Rand needs it. When Rand does his Dragon Reborn Mojo on Caemlyn, it will force the FOL to unify under his leadership. Right now, too many leaders have their spoons in the pot. Once they see the true exent of Rand's abilities, they will realize that he is the guy to lead them.

[Negawonka]

Verin wants the Invasion of Caemlyn to succeed. Rand needs it. When Rand does his Dragon Reborn Mojo on Caemlyn, it will force the FOL to unify under his leadership. Right now, too many leaders have their spoons in the pot. Once they see the true exent of Rand's abilities, they will realize that he is the guy to lead them.

 

If that were the case she wouldn't have made him promise to stay in Caemlyn long enough for the Band to be there when the Trollocs came. Instead she could have made him promise to leave after 20 days or so and there would be nothing to stop the trollocs. Mat would have made that promise gladly (he didn't know he would be made to wait at that time).

 

Like with many of the letters Verin left, she was trying to help the forces of the light from beyond the grave (the only way she really could have because of her oaths).

[DemandredFO]

As bad as the invasion I agree that verin wanted it because there needed to be a major southland city destroyed. Maradon and the rest of the borderlands are out of sight out of mind whereas Caemlyn is in the middle of everything. The world is fractured into multiple poles and verin needs them all codensed behind Rand and by extention Perrin and Mat.

[yoniy0]

I think we're ignoring that fact that she did after all warn Mat. If she wanted, she didn't have to tell him of the invasion in her note. There would have to be some reason for her to put it in writing but allow Mat the possibility of not reading it (for example, so that someone else would), if we wanted to assign her some dubious intentions.