[Harry Potter Week] Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Mafia - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS

[michellem]

...I don't remember how to ISO.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

So here's where I'm at now...

 

RTE is my strongest town read for the Hallia-lynch.

 

Still think Rhea is town, I'm gonna try to read over her posts to confirm, it's not that many so I should have time for that.

 

I think Alanna's tunneling of Tab would've been a very stupid move for a mafia, especially considering she was in so many people's spotlight. She never bit on my attempt to redirect her to Clov, wich I think she should have as mafia. She was getting a lot of flack for her tunneling, and the smart thing to do as mafia if she wanted to win was to give her the opportunity I have her to switch her main attention to Clov.

 

I know I am town.

 

So that leaves Clov. The case against him isn't really strong, but process of elimination leaves me with no-one else. I'll try to find time to read through his posts too.

 

 

The nightkills have followed a quite specific pattern. Cairos was a kill with as little info as possible, to give town less to go from. Sooh, BFG and Razen were all players that most or everyone agreed was town. That should've made Clov a good candidate for N2  or N3; it wasn't until D4 that he got any negative attention. Looking at that pattern makes it even more likely he's the last mafia IMO.

 

Can't argue with this, felt the same at the start of yesterday re: Clov.

 

[v] Clov [/v]

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:
 

Laine (1): Rhea

Clov (1): RTE

 
Not Voting (3): Clov, Laine, Mish
 
 
Deadline for Day 5 is Saturday, August 8th at 9:00 AM MST/12 noon EDT:
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20150808T09&p0=197&msg=Day+Five+Deadline&font=cursive&csz=1

[michellem]

...I don't remember how to ISO.

 

Figured it out, lol.

 

Yeah I'm not even halfway in Rhea's ISO and I'm convinced she isn't our remaining mafia. Her reads list from D1:

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/95026-harry-potter-week-harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-mafia-day-5/page-45?do=findComment&comment=3521747

Here she points out negatives about Hallia wayyy before Hallia gets any proper attention at all. That makes me feel good. Bad move to do for a fellow mafia.

 

And her interactions with Hallia on D3 looks really good for her too, it doesn't seem forced or fake.

 

And generally her tone seems open, honest and genuine. I don't get the feeling she's trying to hide anything, or that she's sliding by with a good excuse. Solid green for me.

[Rhea]

Thanks Mish! I like Green. *grins*

 

I'm waiting to hear from Laine.

[Rhea]

*crickets*

[michellem]

*drums fingers on the table*

[Rhea]

I will be out of town and not allowed on electronic devices tomorrow. So I've been told. LOL... It's my son's birthday and we will be at Valley Fair and the Wet-n-Wild Water Park getting crazy with a bunch of 13-14 year old boys. Woohoo! (I will probably be hiding in a bungalow with my phone so who knows, I might pop on here and there!). 

 

Anyway...I wanted to give fair warning in case I don't get anything out of anyone *cough cough* tonight. 

[Rhea]

How do you ISO?

[Rhea]

It's gotten way too quiet in here. 

 

Laine, are you still sleeping? 

[Rhea]

Well...I'm going to bed. I hope there's more content here by the time I get back on.

[alannalynn]

I'm on lunch break and I have a lot to say when I'm home in 6ish hours.

 

For now, I'd like to see everyone's reads lists from most town to most scummy? I just want to know where we're at. I want to get this right this time; I spent the whole night beating myself up but I'm still determined to win.

 

I'm looking forward to a Clov ISO when I get home. I was thinking last night and he fell right into the bottom of my Poe for a few reasons, I just need to make sure I articulate it correctly.

[alannalynn]

ISO by going to the top the page while still in the thread and click the search icon it'll bring you to a new screen and type in the players name you want to ISO and you can sort their posts.

[Rhea]

I really expected there to be more here when I got up this morning. 

 

 

I'm on lunch break and I have a lot to say when I'm home in 6ish hours.

For now, I'd like to see everyone's reads lists from most town to most scummy? I just want to know where we're at. I want to get this right this time; I spent the whole night beating myself up but I'm still determined to win.

I'm looking forward to a Clov ISO when I get home. I was thinking last night and he fell right into the bottom of my Poe for a few reasons, I just need to make sure I articulate it correctly.

 

Now you decide to look at Clov? 

 

ISO by going to the top the page while still in the thread and click the search icon it'll bring you to a new screen and type in the players name you want to ISO and you can sort their posts.

 

Thanks!

[michellem]

From town to scummy (on phone so no fancy colours)

 

RTE

Rhea

Alanna

Clov

[Rhea]

I have to go get ready to leave....so I don't have time to go into a bunch of ISOs and reads.

 

Here's what I say. I think Laine screwed up. I don't think that clears her completely. 

 

As for Clov, the tone of his posts seem very carefully articulated. Combined with his voting, and the NK patterns, it just feels like something is amiss there. I said before I couldn't put my finger on it 100%. 

 

RTE isn't a high read for me, but not on the bottom either. Could you please point out the posts at the beginning of yesterday when you felt the same about Clov? (In re: to the above post #1327) 

 

Mish/Kronos have not given me any reason to suspect they are not town.

 

Me

Mish/Kronos

RTE

Laine

Clov

 

 

 

I will get back on when I can.

 

I still want to hear what Laine has to say.

[alannalynn]

I'm working on a nice pretty post sorry it's taking time I want to make sure I cover everything. Thanks for the reads lists, I have Clov at the bottom too right now. I'm wary to push anything because I've been wrong pretty much the entire game, so I may leave things up to you guys a little more. Okay back to my ISO...

[alannalynn]

First of all, I'm sorry Taborline, I thought I was right. :/ I feel super awful about that lynch

 

My list:

RTE

Rhea

Mish

Clov

Okay, so I was thinking at work during night phase and realized the last mafia is Clov. If I'm right, he's been subtly guiding this game the whole time. He's been off mafia lynches this whole game and he's been floating by. What really bothers me is on D3 when he went over and voted Taborline, but I have everything here in my wonderful awful ISO WoT I'm sorry in advance.

As for the other players.. RTE has been pretty clear to me for a while now and if he's wolfing, I'll be shocked because he got his teammate Hally lynched. lol. Mish is playing pretty clear town for someone who just both subbed in and is rusty. It helps that Kronos was calm under pressure earlier in the game which I don't think he would do as mafia. Rhea's been steadily improving since earlier in the game and I also like Mish's points on her. Added bonus that she moved to a Clov vote yesterday after Mish did: this feels like a townie move to me (why would scum move? We're all good lynches and I was pushing the Taborline wagon hella hard)

 

 

ISO on Clov:
DAY 1

First vote on RTE, and is gone for the build up on Dice's train. Clears Razen D1. Then there's this post:
 

 

 

Push the quiet ones Need to hold people to a good standard of participation. With no day chat the scum team will suffer during the day if you push them hard enough

This is true. It is vital that Town, especially the VTs post more.

It is significantly harder for mafia to post in an active thread, particularly without day chat.

As VT the goal isn't to stay alive, the goal is to win and you win with town even if dead. Mislynches are sometimes necessary to narrow POE, night kills are always going to happen (no doc), SO make your death COUNT. You do this by posting.

Sigh

I agree with what you're saying here, but the first line makes me wonder if you didn't just town spew RTE. It sort of reads to me like you know he's not going to flip mafia...

Please don't break my heart this game. :(

Noting this for later. This could also mean he picked up on BFG already knowing RTE's alignment through N0 peek.

 

DAY 2:
LINK Based on Mafia!Dice interactions, BFG town, Razen town, Cairos town, probably RTE. My problem with this post is that he wrote it during the night (it was posted 9 minute after deadline, and it doesn't account for Cairos' death). I'm never so confident that I won't die during the night that I write up WoTs. Anyways, not sure if this is a +/- on his part because as mafia he would have Cairos off that list, but I see him thinking far enough ahead to leave him there as well. So maybe a neg after all.

LINK Next, feeling worst about Alanna, Tab, Lessa. (or what I like to call our prime mislynch targets?) #TeamPMT

This and this put doubt on RTE's standing as an opposing train to Dice's lynch

Pushes Tab, votes Alanna
 

 

We have until tomorrow to finish moving everything out of/cleaning our old apartment, so I was scarce after work today, catching up.

I do think that the chances of RTE being scum are now very very low. I am also glad that a Dice is dead and scum, because I have a terrible time reading him.

Does anyone else think the bold just sounds incredibly fake?

A lot of his interactions with Hally this game are very shallow compared to how he's questioned other players. It's something I want to note for later. He never really seems like he's trying to figure her out like he does the other players.

 

 It's the first line that's getting me here. "She's probably not the best lynch TODAY, but I'm not feeling good about Tab at all" Reminder of Prime Mislynch Targets (#PMT) of Alanna, Lessa, Taborline. D2 I kinda lulled on pushing Taborline, it was a slow day, but Clov is actively nudging to see where he can poke holes (like with RTE to Rhea: RTE for his competing wagon/self preservation vote/Dice didn't vote him instead of NL and Rhea for her saying Dice Lessa RTE could all be scum together). He then votes Rhea for that last reason.

My problem with D2 Clov is that he's putting forth the appearance of trying to get other trains going which looks REALLY town and feels townish, but either fails to recognize or he's ignoring the fact that Lessa is going to happen regardless. So my problem is him acting like town but not really achieving anything here. All his nudging accomplished, for me, was more paranoia.

DAY 3: (Aka Post-BFG)
Taborline and Sooh immediately try to clear RTE and Taborline as BFG's peeks and Clov begins to push the thought that the peeks are too ambiguous to be trusted. I'm thinking now that Tab and Sooh (and Rhea) were right about BFG's "relatively confident" wording to be significant by way of being her peeks. If anyone still believes this to be the case, then I think RTE is clear (look at interactions with BFG/RTE d1 to see) and Clov hinted at her knowing his alignment d1 (quoted/linked above). It's odd that even after his recognition that BFG knows RTE's alignment d1 he has this post, which is inconsistent to that line of thought that RTE was the N0 peek (specifically the last line)
 

If anybody is feeling highly confident about somebody's chances to be peeked, I'm all ears, but I can't make heads or tails out of it. I think there's an argument to be made for just about everybody left in the game, and there's something you can argue that suggests they weren't the peek. I know if I'm the cop and get an innocent viewing of somebody, I'm never saying something like "<whoever> could be in my POE" or "I think <somebody> is a good place to look today", but I'm prepared how BFG would (or would not) put her peeks out there.

There's a finality about this post that feels like he knows he's done enough to discount all peeks. Am I the only one seeing it?

*He hasn't really addressed Hally much this game, as I referenced before. I'm realizing this looking at him questioning Hally about her vote on the Lessa wagon.

Here's where I'm bothered. He votes me for, well, me being stupid this game. But then unvotes me for townspewing because I left Cairos on my POE post HERE I guess it has me confused a little bit. This would bother me more (him clearing me) if he didn't set me up in a trap (yes I'm calling it a trap).

This fudging post:

Hallia (3): Razen, RTE, Kronos
Rhea (2): Laine, Hallia

Not voting (4): Taborline, Rhea, Sooh, Clovdyx

I think this is the votecount right now. Hallia wagon looked very clean to me with Razen and RTE, not feeling strongly about Kronos either way right now. I thought his posts sounded pretty good earlier, but Razen and Sooh are probably my two strongest reads right now because of the Dice lynch. Rhea train looks worse because the best thing Laine has going for her IMO is that she seemingly didn't know who had been NK'ed, and Hallia's just a huge a question mark for me.

I'll [v]Taborline[/v] for now. If I'm right about Laine, that means Tabor is the only one from my original list of teammates for Dice, unless it was Dice/Hallia/Kronos and he just didn't interact with them because they weren't posting?

Mafia!Hallia is getting run up, the Rhea train isn't going anywhere. Activate Alanna-tunnel. I pretty much know 99% here that if I didn't vote on the Taborline train, I would have been voted for not following through with my read. This post is a blatant attempt to detract from the Hallia lynch.

My mood about this is reflected here and here with the "Clov I hate you" because I know I HAVE to vote on Taborline (Clov would jump on me voting elsewhere regardless of his alignment but town me was trying to get town read by others) and the second post where I vote Taborline (which, reading back, reads as me being annoyed). After that I do case Hallia and decide she would make a good teammate with Taborline/Hallia but still don't switch over. Even if I was a teammate of Dice/Hally, I would have bussed here for town credit. In this instance though, I feel like Clov was doing what he could to bring down the Hallia train. 
 

I don't mind the Hallia Lynch, but if she flips town, I will be making every attempt to bury Tab tomorrow. I seriously doubt we get two trains that are this close without one being mafia.

If she flips mafia, just pretend this post isn't here.

This doesn't say anything for Tab's alignment if Hall flips mafia. I think he knows I'm finally going to push that Taborline mislynch all the way or get lynched myself trying. #TeamPMT

DAY 4 (AKA the day Alanna is confirmed fool)
A few people question why Clov hasn't been NKd already in the game. This brings me back to his D2 cases: why make a case for the next day unless you know you'll be alive.
 

 

Yes, I felt he was aggressively pushing me at one point to see if my train could get going instead of Hally's.

This is the only knock I have on Razen all game. He was early on Hallia and then moved off after she picked up steam and moved on you. His arguments have sounded good though, and he's probably been the player that's avoided locking in on one or two players through out.

O still think he looks good from Dice, as well. He's behind RTE for me, and probably Rhea after looking at how Hallia acted towards her, but he's still a decent amount ahead of kronos (my third choice after you/Lainel

 

 Odd point here. Clov was the ONLY one to move to Taborline when Hally was on the line.

 

It looks good that Rhea moved with Mish over to Clov... it's easy to stay on the same train, especially with my pushes. I think this pretty much clears Rhea.
 

I'm going to be short about this because I'm in a bad mood (something about breaking my car pisses me off... Who knew?), but if I get mislynched for being alive, I'm not going to be happy. Furthermore, if that happens, I expect everyone to take a look at who was working that angle and figure out if they actually even KNOW me. I haven't played with like half the game...is there some underground fanclub for me I'm not aware of?

I may or may not have time to play tonight, so I'm going to [v]Tabor[/v]. She seems to be clinging onto the hope of being cleared via peek too much, and I put my observations of BFG's "hints" in the thread for everyone to see - and I openly invited everyone to prove me wrong. Saying I steered everyone away from it is absolute garbage, and pushing me for that reeks.

I'm curious: why wait so long to get on the Taborline train? I feel like he was watching to see which way it would swing yesterday: Alanna or Taborline. #PMT He set himself up pretty good to vote either of us. If he really thought Taborline was mafia I would think he'd be earlier on that lynch since he moved over to it D2 instead of Mafia!Hallia. His vote on Taborline pretty much brought the others over to that vote as well.

 

So the point is, I feel like Clov is the type to make a plan. He knew who would make good mislynches and pretty much stuck to those three (Alanna, Taborline, Lessa) since Day 2. NK1 on Cairos was no information, NK2 was the seer (which I think he called out d1), NK3/4 were cleared from the Dice lynch. The goal here was to give us as little information as possible: so kill off the town reads and discount peeks and stay on the easy mislynches and the scum can win this.

 

 

[v]Clov[/v]

[Clovdyx]

All caught up.  I'm half torn between actually trying to help win this game and just seeing if you all can figure it out tomorrow.  Everything in the thread makes me think it should be Laine.  She had the completely unjustified read of Dice, taking Rhea over Hallia when she nominated them both for competing, kind of an irrational defense of me (up to this point, I mean).  Combined that with the fact she's really the only other "lynchable" person at this point, and I really ought to be voting for her.

 

But I'm not going to.

 

[v]ReleasetheEvil[/v]

 

I don't expect anybody to listen to me about this today - tbf I probably wouldn't either.  But lynching me is not going to end this game, and I'm more concerned with winning the game than winning a phase, so please....please... keep this in mind at F3.  I won't pretend that I absolutely must be right about this - but I think I am.

 

 

RTE has 91 posts.  A third of those have come in the past week since Dice's lynch.  It seems like most of us wrote him off after Dice's flip (I'm partially guilty of this, myself) and he really hasn't done much of anything towards actually solving the game since.  Somebody made a comment about me flying under the radar (WHAT?) - I've gotten more active as the game's gone on.  I have yet to see a game where their teammates dying puts energy INTO people.  The whole impending loss kind of kills the WIM.  But what do I know?  

 

Why RTE is absolutely not cleared from the Dice lynch - 

 

 

 

 

Based on the interactions and those who were involved, Dice's remarks are the only ones I see coming from someone who might be scum.

 

You and BFG's are too nitpicky to put your neck out for if you're scum, Clov's look town to me, and that leaves Dice, whose reaction to Clov can go either way based on my experience with him.

 

That's my hunch thus far anyways. But most of the scum team are definitely not here..

 

 

This was to Alanna, after she asked who the active mafia member would be.  He avoids pushing Alanna and BFG for being nitpicky, says I look town, and that leaves Dice - who he could apparently go any way on.  Not an awful list, really - that doesn't mean he's necessarily suspicious of Dice, just that Dice is the most suspicious of the four.

 

My top three scum suspects at the moment are Rhea, Lessa, and Dice FWIW. While I understand when Clov said voting Taborline wouldn't give Lessa credit, I think it was a lazy scum vote on what she thought was an easy train. She says she didn't see the earlier vote but I think regardless she thought it was a safe time to vote and that's why she did so easily.

 

 

He posts this the following day for his suspects.  For the record, this was just over six hours until deadline.  Having Dice as a top candidate looks pretty good...

 

 

I realise my Rhea vote isn't a very good one in terms of trying to avoid my lynch but she's my strongest hunch for scum right now. That being said I am willing to move to Lessa should she emerge as a competing train given what I thought of her vote. Want to see what she has to say if she can get back in time before DL

 

 

So two minutes later he discredits his own vote and says he's willing to his next candidate, if she should emerge as a competing train.  This was when RTE was the runaway leader, and he wasn't doing anything to actually START a train on Lessa.  He was just willing to hop on.  But if Dice was a strong enough suspect to worth mentioning, why exclude him?  

 

BFG votes Dice roughly an hour after this post and RTE is clearly around to see it - he makes a couple unrelated posts.  He waffles on Dice's no lynch but doesn't commit either way to his alignment.  He later responds to a large multiquote by Alanna, but he's seemingly completely ignoring BFG's case on Dice.  He makes a few other statements about Dice being his weakest scumread and being unable to read him well, then finally votes him here.

 

 

I'm not sure about Dice but I know I am town... And that No lynch vote...

 

Unvote. Vote Dice

 

 

Five hours after BFG cased him, and not until AFTER Sooh lynches him.  I mentioned at start of D2 that I didn't understand why the no lynch vote was something worth caring about.  I think RTE wanted something other than just a pure preservation vote on Dice so that he would look better once the flip happened

 

 

 

Now look at his progress on me, starting D2.  Remember, he already said I was looking pretty town, and wished I was around more.

 

 

 

 

There's the Town!Clov I was expecting.

 

Some very nice compilation work by Clov and BFG. Interesting interactions between Laine and Dice but I feel like Laine's alignment will sort itself out given enough time, and I wouldn't put her particularly high on my scum reads.

 

One thing that went horribly wrong for the scum team was chance via random.org. Nice try though.

 

[v] Lessa [/v]

 

 

This was in response to my spew analysis.

 

 

Really good discussions except not enough from the people I want to hear most (in this order): WBK, Hallia, Taborline, Less

 

Very happy with where my vote is but here's a read list just in case I don't wake up on Day 3:

Town to Mafia

 

BFG

Clov

Razen

Sooh

Laine

WBK

Taborline

Rhea

Hallia

Lessa

 

WBK and Laine are interchangeable and based on recent activity I've swapped Rhea and Hallia. They are still quite close in terms of how I see them but Rhea has been playing the more townie game of the two on D2. 

 

 

Pretty consistent there.  He had BFG as one of his top reads D1, so her placement over me doesn't seem bad at all, and I'm still very high from him.  Now a few days later is when things begin to go.... somewhere else.

 

 

Ok I have a bit of a weird question but I think it's a relevant one.

Clov why do you think the mafia team haven't killed you yet? Because to me that's quite interesting.

 

 

This was just into the start of D4 (following Sooh's death).  At the time I wasn't sure if he was trying a half-assed attempt to make me look bad or he genuinely thought I could offer some insight.  I ask him directly which is the case.

 

 

Clov it's genuine. You're at the top of my town list and you must be for other people as well. If I was scum you'd be dead.

My vote today is on Laine or Taborline

 

 

Now I'm at the top of his town list D4.  Without factoring in the past two days of gameplay in, this makes sense - I was #2, and #1 died.  But you kind of HAVE to factor in newer developments, so I ask..why?  This was following Hallia's lynch.  At this point I didn't hop onto a Dice CFD (albeit because it hadn't really started when I was around and trying to get caught up), and I did not contribute to the Hallia lynch.  I didn't really fight it, either - I could have easily tied the wagons by voting Rhea - but I'm not going to lie and say I somehow came away looking GOOD from it.

 

I don't think I should have been anybody's top mafia candidate at this point, but I sure as hell don't see an argument for being the towniest player now.  

 

 

PS Good post Mish. Still torn on Clov. The fact he's alive is what bothers me the most. Otherwise I would pick Laine over Clov today.

 

To be honest right now before considering Rhea, I wanted to lynch in this order:

 

Laine - Taborline - Clov 

 

But I do think we need to see who Hallia distanced from. 

 

 

This was in response to Mish's reads list/case for me the next morning.  It looked like Mish actually put a lot of effort into her argument, and I didn't find her push scummy at all.  RTE backs her on it, says he's torn on me, and thinks the biggest knock against me is being alive.  He says he wanted to go Laine, Tab, then me...and this was before considering Rhead.  BUT - first he wants to evaluate who Hallia distanced from.

 

Unless I'm somehow missing it, he never does that.  This goes back to my earlier point about him trying to coast by and not contribute to solving.  Most people have gone through and tried to actually examine who did what.  Why is it the clear townie hasn't?

 

 

 

 

Clov being alive made me wonder if he wasn't left in for confusion.

She makes a good point!!!

 

 

Wow Laine you just jumped at that one didn't you?

 

No, sorry. Clov's play hasn't been ambiguous enough to follow that line of reasoning. Mish's idea was better articulated and explained though. 

 

 

Not even sure what this means.  If I'm interpreting it correctly, RTE is saying I've been so pro-town that I can't possibly be alive just for a mislynch (I'm assuming that's what Tabor meant by being alive for confusion).  But if that's the case, I don't understand the point of keep pointing out the fact I'm alive, in a way of casting doubt on me.

 

 

 

When Taborline flips mafia, I hope you eat your words.

 

Not a big deal. I'm pretty sure it's one of you two, with a hint of Rhea. 

 

I haven't even voted yet. I've never seen you be this defensive.

 

So are you mad townie or desperate scum? 

 

 

This isn't actually about me, but approaching DL on D4, he's seemingly not even considering it's me.  

 

 

Laine the problem is Tabor flipping town wouldn't make you town. And you've given much more content-wise than she has. Therefore we have a lot more to go on with your flip than hers. If Tabor was town and you got lynched tomorrow and you're town then we'd be even further in the hole. So I think it's best we start with you.

 

On a sidenote, if Clov is still alive by the next two day phases and it's LYLO, (and there has been a kill every night) lynch Clov (instead of say Rhea who would be my third choice otherwise).

 

[v] Laine [/v] 

 

 

Here he makes it incredibly clear that I'm a last ditch effort vote at F3 and shouldn't be ahead of Laine....

 

 

Lol Laine, what do you have to say for yourself?

 

Want to vote Clov but Laine might be keeping him alive on purpose to misdirect us. 

 

 

Seemingly feels the same way here, and uses Tab's lynch to implicate her...

 

 

 

So here's where I'm at now...

 

RTE is my strongest town read for the Hallia-lynch.

 

Still think Rhea is town, I'm gonna try to read over her posts to confirm, it's not that many so I should have time for that.

 

I think Alanna's tunneling of Tab would've been a very stupid move for a mafia, especially considering she was in so many people's spotlight. She never bit on my attempt to redirect her to Clov, wich I think she should have as mafia. She was getting a lot of flack for her tunneling, and the smart thing to do as mafia if she wanted to win was to give her the opportunity I have her to switch her main attention to Clov.

 

I know I am town.

 

So that leaves Clov. The case against him isn't really strong, but process of elimination leaves me with no-one else. I'll try to find time to read through his posts too.

 

 

The nightkills have followed a quite specific pattern. Cairos was a kill with as little info as possible, to give town less to go from. Sooh, BFG and Razen were all players that most or everyone agreed was town. That should've made Clov a good candidate for N2  or N3; it wasn't until D4 that he got any negative attention. Looking at that pattern makes it even more likely he's the last mafia IMO.

 

Can't argue with this, felt the same at the start of yesterday re: Clov.

 

[v] Clov [/v]

 

 

And here he votes me, backing Mish's PoE thoughts (I'm the only candidate left), saying he felt the same thing.  Only we know he didn't feel the same thing, because he literally just made a case FoSing Laine after saying it came down to her/Tab/Rhea the day before.

 

 

 

[Clovdyx]

TL;DR - RTE has done nothing, whatsoever, to contribute to solving this game.  He's been riding credit from the Dice lynch that he shouldn't have ever gotten, and his flip on me today doesn't fit with his mindset throughout the course of the game.  I think he realizes I'm not going to be able to talk myself out of this one, and he'll gladly take somebody out of the game he thinks is a strong player (unless he just kept bringing my reputation up because he was trying to pocket me, in which case, I strongly approve of your methods).

[Clovdyx]

Leading up to Dice's no lynch, this was the most recent VC.

 

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Taborline (2): Laine, Lessa
RTE (3): Clov, Kronos, Hallia
Lessa (1): Razen

Not Voting (7): Taborline, BFG, RTE, Rhea, Sooh, Cairos, Dice

Deadline for Day 1 is Wednesday, July 29 at 9:00 AM MST:
http://www.timeandda...t=cursive&csz=1

 

8-1/2 HOURS UNTIL DEADLINE

 

 

 

 

 

I think Tambourline's blunder is a noob one, and one very indicative of her noobness at mafia and nothing else. I will be looking closely at people who take the opportunity to build a train on her based on it. 

 

While I agree with the thought of Taborline's reaction as a noob blunder. I can't help but feel that RTE is doing a bit of defending (or maybe deflecting) here (bold and underlined). Taking note of that. Just notes, hunches, and gut feelings are all Iv'e got right now! 

 

 

 

Also don't like Rhea"s post. It gives me the feeling she is (or should be?) Suspicious of him, but she just "notes it".

 

This might be mafia rust on her part, but she's been one of the only people in this game to not back up her suspicions with a vote. This stands out to me, bit too safe on her part.

 

[v] Rhea [/v]

 

 

Plus one vote for Rhea...

 

 

oh and BFG?? you want me to vote whereever I please? here

 

vote no lynch   I DONT see this as bad. Odds are that we mislynch a townie today. No lynch means 1 less townie dies we still have the info gathered today tomorrow 

 

with that im off to bed and wont be back for DL as told earlier

 

 

And the no lynch.  I don't see Dice as the type of player that would simply wash his hands if EVERY train was townie.  We know Taborline was town.  We know Lessa was town.  I'm pretty comfortable with Rhea being town, based on Hallia pushing her.  That leaves RTE, who happened to be the leading vote getter at the time.  If Dice wasn't trying to protect RTE, I honestly have no clue what he was trying to do.

[Clovdyx]

 

 

You complete me.      

 

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to make about the hard nut to crack comment, so I'm going to ignore that.  I already stated what I think about the "argument" of me being alive as a reason to suspect me - it's not one.  You go on to state that me being alive combined with the fact I haven't lynched mafia (which IS a perfectly fair statement) makes you wary, but let's think about this logically.  Why would they shoot me?  You don't kill people you can get lynched - you get them lynched.

 

I think your point about me not trying to be town leader is blatantly wrong.  Go back and look at D1.  RTE was the leader for a good portion of the day, and I was one of the first to argue for him.  I don't know if anybody was on him before me and unvoted, but I'm fairly certain he was at zero when I pushed him.  Yes, that meant not lynching Dice, but you can't have it both ways - should I have been trying to lead, or should I have been following BFG's case?  

 

I haven't been on a single lynch.  This is ALSO a perfectly fair statement to make, but I think it's pretty misleading, too.  RTE was the leading vote getter when I went to bed, he was the leading vote getter when I went to work, and he was the leading vote getter when I checked in on my phone.  I get that you don't know my schedule, but I don't think it's hard to see the vast majority of my posts this game have come at certain hours.  The Lessa lynch I didn't vote for, but why should I have?  I made my argument for her being very likely to be mafia based off Dice as soon as day started, then I went back to bed...she had been run up before I got home.  I'm not going to apologize for NOT trying to get more information out.

 

Last point...I want to make a snarky comment about hindsight, but you subbed in late in a game.  I can't expect you to have the same perception you might had you been there from the beginning.  

 

 

Rhea - No problem with your conclusion here.  I think some of her posts had some awkward tone, but there's no objective way to debate that.  This is my first game with her, so I can't really confirm or refute the meta claim.

 

Tab - What do you feel she can have blame placed on her for?  Not really sure where you're going with that.

 

Alanna - A few questions about this read.  First, I don't know what you're suggesting by saying she hasn't been very involved in finding Hallia or Dice "this far".  I feel like you meant "Hallia and Dice's teammate", but I'm not 100%.  Can you clarify that?  Also, I'd like to hear what made you initially go Alanna over Tab.  You said that you were going to chalk Alanna up as mafia because you don't have a read on her, but the first sentence of Tab makes it seem like you're equally confused.  I would expect them to be at least even in your order.

 

RTE - Agree with your conclusion.  I would note that RTE was NOT the first to vote Hallia on D3 - Razen was.  Razen moved off to Hallia to Tab the last day of D3.  However, the fact that RTE stayed is a big plus in his favor for me.

 

 

First of all: I think I already said this before, but my memory is spotty on large parts of the game because of the insanely big posts going on here and there. I ment that I couldn't remember seeing Alanna being much involved in the lynches of Dive and Hallia, that she was mostly looking elsewhere. But that brings me to point nr 2:

 

 All my points about Tab and Alanna in that post was to gauge reactions from each of them. I did have Tab higher up on my suspect list than Alanna, the most point against Alanna I had was her voting pattern EOD. But like I stated before, I wanted to make Tab think I could be on her side against Alanna to see what would come from that. Now however, with Tab's flip, I'm back to square 1 with how I feel about Alanna. On the other hand... She had to know, if she's mafia, that she would be the clear lynch today after Tab's flip. That makes me feel better about her.

 

I haven't noticed exactly what times of day you are on, no. But I still find it a bit too hard to believe that you've managed to be on none of the mafia lynches and only town lynches. You are also one of the best players in the game, wich both Hallia and Dice would know, and they would know that if you go into town leader mode you are dangerous, and would make more sense to be a N1 or N2 kill. You're hard to lynch, at least as far as I can remember, so that's not an argument. And the most damning this is of course the one that's hardest to pin down and show; I don't feel like you've been on a strong town game.

 

 

First, you say that like there have been some incredibly high amount of mafia lynches, and I've magically avoided them all.  There have been TWO - one of which wasn't even an option when I was online (Dice).  He had 1 vote when I checked in during my lunch break, and he had 1 vote when I went back to work.  Again, I don't expect you know the schedule, but my last post was before Sooh even moved on Dice. I'm not going to randomly CFD somebody who hadn't done much of anything over a lynch I chose to start.

 

 

Second, if you're town (and I believe you are), you can't objectively say that.  I understand that you're townreading RTE.  Until I caught up this morning, I was too...but I wasn't when I pushed him on D1.  He hadn't done anything to that point, so you're trying to use the fact you think I'm wrong based on something that hadn't even occurred when I make my argument.  

 

 

Not sure where you're going with me being a hard lynch.  I guess I'll agree, in the sense that I don't go down without fighting, but given I've been mislynched here more than I've been mislynched every where else and the number of times I've been lynched as mafia...not sure sure that's true anymore.  

 

Last... I'm not going to even attempt to refute that.  I'm already 2/3 on putting townies as mafia from spew, haven't lynched the mafia, and I'm pretty sure I semi-cleared the last one.  I'll take some satisfaction if I'm right about RTE since I pushed him D1, but you're right - this is not my best game.  But I do believe I've put more work into solving it than almost anybody else, and I won't apologize for not being right all the time.  

[Clovdyx]

What do you think Laine screwed up about, Rhea?

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:
 
Laine (1): Rhea
Clov (2): RTE, Laine

RTE (1): Clov
 
Not Voting (1): Mish
 
 
Deadline for Day 5 is Saturday, August 8th at 9:00 AM MST/12 noon EDT:
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20150808T09&p0=197&msg=Day+Five+Deadline&font=cursive&csz=1

[Clovdyx]

I'm going to take Laine's post in chunks to keep it from being massive.  Deal with it 

 

DAY 2:
LINK Based on Mafia!Dice interactions, BFG town, Razen town, Cairos town, probably RTE. My problem with this post is that he wrote it during the night (it was posted 9 minute after deadline, and it doesn't account for Cairos' death). I'm never so confident that I won't die during the night that I write up WoTs. Anyways, not sure if this is a +/- on his part because as mafia he would have Cairos off that list, but I see him thinking far enough ahead to leave him there as well. So maybe a neg after all.

LINK Next, feeling worst about Alanna, Tab, Lessa. (or what I like to call our prime mislynch targets?) #TeamPMT

This and this put doubt on RTE's standing as an opposing train to Dice's lynch

Pushes Tab, votes Alanna

 

 

First of all, I would like to confirm I did write those posts during the night phase.  I'm pretty sure everybody already knew that (there's no way I could do that much that quickly), but I'll throw it out there as the truth.  I wasn't sure I wasn't going to die, but I had some confidence - I actually expected BFG to die first (something about leading a mafia lynch, being pretty unanimous town????).  But even if I had, so what?  They go to waste, but it's better to be able to put my thoughts out early than have to wait.

 

Laine - I'm not sure if you remember these posts, but in terms of whether I would do something like that when I could be NK'ed, 1, 2, 3.  I'll concede I posted those DURING the night phase as I wrote them (and ironically was vigged that same night), rather than holding onto them for start of day, but obviously I couldn't do that here.  

 

In terms of the candidates...yes, I named you three.  I went through the thread and found the people who played the end of day in a way that made the most sense from a town POV and the ones whose play didn't.  IIRC you said you agreed with most of what I said in those, at the time - go back and re-evaluate them.  Tell me what stands out as completely off based on the flow of the thread at the time.

 

 

IRT the posts about RTE... yes, I was explaining why I didn't think he was cleared and what my concern was, in the first one.  I already explained what I was addressing with the second one here.

 

 

 

 

Do you think Lessa and RTE are a viable team, or would they have to be separate?

 

I don't know what you mean by team exactly? If you mean do I think they could both be mafia, I do suppose it is possible though it's probably a stretch. My gut says Lessa panicked and came in last second to make it a tie to try and get Dice off in a tie breaker. Giving him a 50/50 chance. Which if true, would make me lean more towards RTE being town because the more I think about it the more I don't know what benefit it would have to all 3 of them for her to make it a tie right then. LOL...I'm up in the air right now. I think finding out Lessa's true alignment is a good way to move forward at this point.  

 

 

Bold is exactly what I mean.  The reason I asked, and why I asked if you would be willing to lynch RTE today earlier, is because I wanted to see how you would talk about the two of them.  I made a comment about something you did that caught my eye (taking out the IRL-related comments):

 

 

Good job guys! I know it came down to random roll....though my gut feeling is either way we would have caught scum, and I think their teammate was hoping to make it a tie so that the one left would look clean. 

 

In that case I think I will [v]Lessa[/v] for now and see how things shake out. I need to go back and read everything again and look at a few things. But I think that last minute tie vote pretty much cinches it for me. 

 

I will be back and let you all know what the doctor says.

 

Carry on!

 

 

The only way that we could have caught scum either way yesterday is if RTE and Dice were teammates, obviously.  So her "gut feeling" was that RTE was mafia - which makes it impossible to determine Lessa's alignment - but she voted for her anyways.  That was after she had already gotten three votes in the first seven hours.  AFAICT she's made no progress on him (or anyone else, based on her earlier reads list) today and hasn't even tested the waters to even get people to consider him as scum.

 

 

I was trying to gauge whether she was committed to the read she gave out earlier (thinking that RTE was also mafia with Dice, and that Lessa was just voting between two teammates).  She seemed to immediately have shifted towards Lessa without even batting at eye at RTE, and I pushed her for it - partially to see if it would get traction, and partially because we had already run up Lessa and I wanted more info the thread.  I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I don't play pure deadline games by running up the top candidate at the start of phase and sit twirling your thumbs for the next day and a half.  I feel that's such a pretty basic concept.