House of Cards

[WWWwombat]

Clever girl...

[Darthe]

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! 

 

Thoughts to p. 14

 

Like AJ's suggestion to leave peek/cover til EoD

Did not read Sooh's early Aussie theme post as scummy - sounded like normal Sooh, reaction/explanation read natural (?Australian bias *g*)

 

 

Wolfy:

 

Darthe - forceful on early Seer cover, ?explanation in post #54, both defending/distancing from Nyn, 'pre-vote' /overly hard push on Sooh

 

Leelou - too little to make a call yet, but interaction with Verb did feel off

 

Clov - push on Nyn was weak, with quick backtracking to follow. ?more Town since

 

Kaylee - pushy/observant questioning - quick agreements with Darthe/Clov felt off 

 

Nyn/Hally - watching this space: Nyn's 'tude seems normal Nyn/nulll but push on Sooh and interaction with Darthe may need more attention. Like Hally's logic, not sure what to make of tone.

This is an awful wolf list.

 

Cass are you attempting to incorperate TWTBAW by chance?  If so just use our codeword.  It's Clovian Dongonomics if you forgot.

[WWWwombat]

I absolutely just made Cass appear by voting her

It's magic

Just wait until you see the next trick up my sleeve

 

So jelly

[dicetosser1]

 

except it cant be wolfy ass im not a wolf.

 

I feel like the "ass" here was intentional.

 

absolutely! shakes head no

[Cory Caboose]

 

Tress you don't have to be afraid if you're a villager

 

You can come a little closer 

 

Does it bite?

 

 

[WWWwombat]

Goodnight ladies and mentlegen.

[Darthe]

Don't go yet sweet prince

[Clovdyx]

[v]Cass[/v]

 

I don't understand most of those reads at all.  I don't see how you can say Darthe has been defending Nyn at all, and I'm not sure you can make a fair case of "distancing" when he's actively trying to get pressure on the slot.  Pushing him for seer cover makes no sense to me.

 

Where has Kaylee been pushy at all?  Observant questioning, sure, but I don't see how you can argue that's anti-town.

[Hallia]

 

Who could ever be afraid of your balls?

 

the new "pocketing" literally involves you putting your hand in my pocket

 

we live in a literal world, and that's not a terrible thing

 

 

Brown chicken brown cowwwww

 

Also, I agree with Clov re: Kaylee.  Not liking Cass's reads.

[Darthe]

@Wolves, trying to get votes off your teammates by pulling them onto yourselves is not optimal wolf strats.  I repeat, not optimal.

[Darthe]

RE: Kaylee?

[Hallia]

Where has Kaylee been pushy at all?  Observant questioning, sure, but I don't see how you can argue that's anti-town. - There

[Andrej]

[v]Cass[/v]

[Andrej]

Pulled some quotes as I was catching up just now, will get them sorted and responded to in time.

 

Sooh/Cass wagons aren't bad atm, I think.

[Songstress]

It's been a turribly long day and tomorrow is likely to be almost as bad, so I will bid you lovely people adieu for the evening.  Looking to see a bit more from the aussie contingent and I need to re-read the stuff I skimmed in between playing interior decorator today, so I should have thoughts and reads and whatnot tomorrow night.

 

Especially whatnot.  I'm all about the whatnot.

[Cory Caboose]

Tress I don't have you as a villager yet 

 

AJ I know this line of questioning is something I have done with you as a wolf and it makes me almost not want to do it but I'm going to do it anyway because I'm legitimately curious -

 

When I go through the thread, will I have you as a villager? If no, why?

[Cass]

 

Wombat, what's the problem with *fake* villa-peeking a wolf if you're trying to create cover?  Putting out an informed decision eliminates the possibility of it being a random choice.  You see the inherent conflict? 

 

Not sure what you mean.  Villapeeking a wolf is very -EV for town imo.  Either the wolves will assume the person is not the seer and leave him/her alone, or they will kill him/her to SHC themselves.  The odds of it working out well for town are very low in those circumstances imo.

 

 

Agree with the first bold here - having been a crappy wolf cleared for a good part of a game based solely on unfortunate Seer cover.

 

Darthe, what do you mean by 'random choice'? IMO, informed Seer cover decisions are more likely to be accurate, and therefore more confusing to the wolves. I don't get why you aren't seeing the benefits of leaving cover til it's more likely to be accurate in this sort of game. Only wolves and the actual Seer can put out informed decisions early on, and the more accurate/inaccurate the early reads, the easier the wolves can narrow down a choice for actual Seer, no?

[Cory Caboose]

Let's not talk about mechanics, people will do what they will and it's up to us to hope people make rational decisions. The information is out there.

 

The easiest way to win the game in any situation is to lunch all the wolves. Work on that before criticizing or dissecting what a seer or vanilla villager should do; or listen to what Tom said, and use your own discretion.

 

Anything beyond that I will consider open seerhunting ITT and I lunch people who openly seerhunt ITT.

[Cass]

[v]Cass[/v]

 

raisins

 

 

Raisins?

[Cory Caboose]

Cass you've been a wolf like the last 4-5 games and I have seen you coast on little blurbs of "villagery content" with no real dedication or commitment to figuring out the game - and nobody pushes you for whatever reason

Just letting you know if you are a wolf here I will not be allowing you to do this for as long as I'm alive

[Darthe]

OOOOKAY let's go through this.

 

N0 seer targets are supposed to be randomly provided by the moderator.  The player did not choose them and they could be anyone.  If you wait all day and then place someone you particularly think is a good cop target, likely to be a townie, whatever, as town then you made an informed choice.  

 

This is a bad thing because the wolves now know that if you are the real seer you had a pool of people that maybe didn't include the person you faked cover for.  Thus, by making an informed choice you essentially made it obvious to any observant reader that you are not the seer.  This has been recorded as more likely to happen than it is for you to randomly select mafia when performing seer cover.  Simultaneously your reads aren't particularly likely to be all that accurate compared to rand, so it's not even a very purposeful reason to debase seer cover.  Cory probably knows more about it all than I do but there are a multitude of reasons that have perfectly logical explanations.  To list a few of them:

 

Earlier seems to be generally better, though maybe it is different in a setup that allows for days between lynches.

Random peeks are best and if you aren't doing it randomly why do it all?  If you are doing it randomly what benefit is there in waiting?

Faking cover is +ev because it allows a seer buffer space to get their peeks out.

 

I think there are other things but I'm blanking on all of the implications atm.  Just TLDR even if you want to wait random.org it but if you do I question the purpose of waiting.  

[Darthe]

Let's not talk about mechanics, people will do what they will and it's up to us to hope people make rational decisions. The information is out there.

 

The easiest way to win the game in any situation is to lunch all the wolves. Work on that before criticizing or dissecting what a seer or vanilla villager should do; or listen to what Tom said, and use your own discretion.

 

Anything beyond that I will consider open seerhunting ITT and I lunch people who openly seerhunt ITT.

 

 

Cass you've been a wolf like the last 4-5 games and I have seen you coast on little blurbs of "villagery content" with no real dedication or commitment to figuring out the game - and nobody pushes you for whatever reason

 

Just letting you know if you are a wolf here I will not be allowing you to do this for as long as I'm alive

 

Town cory is like a breath of fresh air

[Clovdyx]

Cass you've been a wolf like the last 4-5 games and I have seen you coast on little blurbs of "villagery content" with no real dedication or commitment to figuring out the game - and nobody pushes you for whatever reason

 

Just letting you know if you are a wolf here I will not be allowing you to do this for as long as I'm alive

 

I don't know if it's the timing of this post, or the implication that she posted "villagery content", but I'm really suspicious of this post.  The idea is probably basically null for Cory - he can make these town leader posts (I don't really know what to call them, bold is what I'm referring to here) as any alignment - with maybe the slightest hint of town, but this seems completely out of place here.

[Cory Caboose]

N0 seer targets are supposed to be randomly provided by the moderator.  The player did not choose them and they could be anyone.  If you wait all day and then place someone you particularly think is a good cop target, likely to be a townie, whatever, as town then you made an informed choice.  

 

This is a bad thing because the wolves now know that if you are the real seer you had a pool of people that maybe didn't include the person you faked cover for.

 

short answer: no

 

long answer: nooooooooooooooooo

 

the point is that the seer AND vanilla villagers drop their peeks later in the day but keep in mind who they think are villagers early so they can build up to their peek believably

 

but no one is ever going to "make everyone play optimally", so it's barely worth discussing

 

a better question is: who are the wolves ITG?

[Cory Caboose]

 

Cass you've been a wolf like the last 4-5 games and I have seen you coast on little blurbs of "villagery content" with no real dedication or commitment to figuring out the game - and nobody pushes you for whatever reason

 

Just letting you know if you are a wolf here I will not be allowing you to do this for as long as I'm alive

 

I don't know if it's the timing of this post, or the implication that she posted "villagery content", but I'm really suspicious of this post.  The idea is probably basically null for Cory - he can make these town leader posts (I don't really know what to call them, bold is what I'm referring to here) as any alignment - with maybe the slightest hint of town, but this seems completely out of place here.

 

 

Give me my rope.