[Blue Ajah Harry Potter Week ] *Game Over - Town Wins* Lego Harry Potter Years 1-4 Mafia

[BridMorgan]

Bridmorgan, what do you think on all of this?

Well, Mish made some really good points against you and I was going to vote for you, but as I stated above, my gut is telling me Basel. Could be a rookie mistake, but I have to go woth my instinct for now. I'll be following along though to see how the days posting goes.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Daruya is replacing Time

[Thorum]

I'm leaving for the day. So I don't forget to follow up : unvote and vote bg .

[michellem]

Welcome Dar!

 

Thorum, you ignored most of my major points again... But whatever; you don

[michellem]

Ugh, that posted too early.

 

But whatever; you don't need to convince me further that you are mafia. I already know.

[Thorum]

The only point I ignored was my so-called "less than helpfull attitude". If that constitutes "most of your major points"...

[michellem]

No you've answered less than half my points. But let's try something different shall we?

 

Who do you think are mafia? Why?

 

Who do you think are town? Why?

[Thorum]

Breath in and out once, and go over my responses. I answered them all (well, except for the one repeated two posts ago).

 

Staying with your choice of mafia no matter what is a very bad idea. Always is, always will be. Yes, you can disagree with my answers, no problem. But simply saying I didn't give them is a big lie. Which means you are my primary choice for being mafia.

 

That also depends on bg's answer, however.

 

And now I really have to go.

[michellem]

So I am your only suspect for mafia?

 

Despite the fact that my case on Rhea, is what made her train start and got her lynched, D1?

 

I am mafia solely based on my actions toward you... So my actions the rest of the game doesn't count then?

[Daruya]

Hi all.  I'm here but I fell behind on reading over the weekend.  Give me a bit of time to catch up!  It may be this afternoon (it's currently just before 8 a.m. local time) before I can contribute significantly (I'm at work, after all and must be circumspect).   

[Ithillian Turambar]

Official Vote Count

 

BG - 3 (Turin, Nicana, Thorum)

Thorum - 4 (Mish, dice, Amarande, Basel)

Basel - 2 (Wombat, Bridmorgan)

 

Not Voting - 6 (Hallia, Kassidy, Time, Cloud, RTE, BG)

 

 

With 15 alive it takes 8 to Lynch

 

Current possible End of Round Bonus = 900 Studs

 

Day 2 Deadline is 9pm BST Tuesday 6th August due to the Weekend.

 

 

http://www.timeandda...=Day 2 deadline

[Ithillian Turambar]

Available Stud Count:

 

 

780

[_CLOUD]

Bah.  I used mine, but on dpr.  Fat lot of good that did.

 

Scummy post is scummy. What reason does Hallia have to tell everyone that she used a viewing charm on DPR who died last Night other than gaining town cred? None.

 

vote BG.

 

Too much Turin defense when no one wanted to believe.

 

Yeah from what I remember BG was defending you a lot at the end of Day 1, but I will have to go back and read his posts later.

 

 

I cannot be active if no one`s online when I am.

 

If someone has some time too much: what has dpr done yesterday? He was VERY active, which makes his choice strange.

 

This has already been adressed by Mish and Turin, but there are more playstyles than just being online at the same time as everyone else is and responding to everything that is going on. You could for example do a reread and make a case on someone, explain why you think someone is scum or town. etc. etc.

 

That might've been exactly why.  He hadn't done anything in particular, and therefore couldn't be linked, positively or negatively to anyone.

 

This post and your later post where you explain that you think DPR was a no info kill aren't true at all. DPR was one of the most active players and he had very strong opinions on a couple of players. In short he was going after Turin after he claimed to be the Cop, he was also going after Rhea, I think he was defending Mish, and later when Rhea flipped scum he was also going after BG. He was linking himself to all of them and I think that is why he was NK'd. It seems to me that he was on the right track, and then the mafia killed him for the WIFOM. 

 

 

 

My reply to Mish's case: 

 

Part 1:

The first three points about Amarande, Thorum and Rhea are just too far fetched imo. I didn't see anything strange about them and I think that you trying to find meaning behind something that isn't really there. This is however the only part of your case that I disagree with.

 

Part 2:

I can see why you think Thorum is mafia, but at the same time I'm getting a mixed feeling from him. Yes, he doesn't contribute much and he doesn't take a stance on things, but I haven't played with him before so I don't know if this is his usual meta or not. DPR did however mention that he has been playing mafia since pretty much the beginning or something so I definitely would expect more from him. He keeps mentioning that he is busy, but that is no reason why he doesn't talk much about the game when he does posts. I agree with your points regarding Basel though. I have also been really suspicious about him from the start because of his attack on Turin and BG because of the points thing, and his later explanation why one of them is mafia because of a gut feeling that he didn't bother to further explain. Basel's vote on Rhea was interesting and I think I can agree with you that it looked like a bus vote.

 

Right now I would also just be fine with lynching KassidyRose because she isn't really doing anything...

 

Part 3:

 

More reasons why you find Basel suspicious because he isn't commenting on the things between BG and Rhea, and I agree with those. Thorum not reading DPR's case and just hammering Rhea also feels wrong to me... His opinion about Rhea is also wierd and it seems that he just wants to make everyone believe that he didn't pay any attention to her so that they can't be linked together later? After reading part 3 of your case I'm more inclined to believe that Thorum is also mafia, but right now I have a stronger scum read on Basel. 

 

 

 

 

Poor Thorum indeed, old classmate :)

 

Vote Thorum

 

(Do you know how many times I kept trying to type Thorium instead, BTW? Dangit, me and my young years spent geeking out reading about nuclear physics, not to mention the years playing WoW ... LOL)

 

So Amarande why are you voting for Thorum?

 

My visitors are stuck in traffic, so I've read your posts.

 

True. I should never have started this game. That's not a very good reason to think I'm mafia.

 

- as I stated before, the unlikely thing was me having time online this weekend, not the me surviving night. As obvious if you look where the ")" is (I think you're the second person who asked this).

 

- Turin is a smart player. His claim could very easily be false, if he used a Polyjuice on himself. That's pointing out the obvious. For me, it's more mafia to ignore possibilities like this, than to point them out.

 

- Have you made a list of all people that haven't celebrated in joy we had a mafia day 1?

 

For now, I'll vote mish. For setting up an easy target with arguments you're too smart to agree with yourself.

 

To comment on the bolded. This was your post and my question why you thought that you would die:

 

 

Still no result 

 

Anyway, I have to leave y'all. Fingers crossed on some internet over the weekend (if I survive the night), though unlikely.

 

Why do you think that you will get NK'd?

 

Yes at first I thought the "unlikely" part was an explanation on you surviving the night, but then I understood that it was about you not having internet over the weekend. Even without this you did question if you would survive the night and I don't see why the mafia team would have done that. It looks like you are trying to appear townie and that is pinging a little.

 

I didn't find you bringing up the possiblity of the polyjuice potion scummy though because that is an obvious counter to the revelio charm.

 

Your obvious OMGUS vote on Mish is pinging though.

 

 

 

So my current scum reads are: 

 

Basel

Thorkin

Hallia

 

 

 

Unvote, Vote Basel.

[_CLOUD]

I meant to say Thorum instead of Thorkin, that was a typo :P

[_CLOUD]

I tend to focus more on finding scum but my town reads are: 

 

Turin

Mish

Nica

Wombat

[_CLOUD]

BG I'm not sure about. The rest are more or less null.

[WWWwombat]

unvote

Vote: BG

 

Unless Rita or Turin are full of it, he roleblocked a cop claim.

 

Good work Skeeter. Meep meep!

[WWWwombat]

Mish or Cloud could be lying as well but I've been getting good vibes from them so far.

[_CLOUD]

Am I the only one who finds it weird that the Mod would point out that BG visited Turin last night while he has said nothing about it himself (I think)?

[WWWwombat]

I'm pretty sure it's due to a role. I've heard of an interpretation of the Reporter role that does something similar. It's a super rare role, but it fits Rita like a glove.

[_CLOUD]

Oooh that would make sense.

 

Unvote, Vote BG

 

 

I now think that him and Basel are teammates. It would also explain why Basel had his weird gut feeling about Turin or BG being mafia, but not them together.

[Thorum]

I am mafia solely based on my actions toward you... So my actions the rest of the game doesn't count then?

You are correct. Forgot that.

[michellem]

*Facepalm* Can we lynch this idiot now please? He refuses to listen to any kind of reason at all. How on earth that is town behaviour, is beyond me.

[bgrishinko]

I expelliarmused Turin. And here's why. Turin has to have lied about his upgrade.

 

After Rhea flipped mafia, I had to rethink some things about how I perceived the game so far. So I went back and reanalyzed some things.

 

One thing that really stood out to me was when Turin brought up how Mish couldn't have bought the Boost of 300 studs. DPR and I got into a fight over this a little and I still disagree with him about his points. Turin provided evidence that Mish couldn't have afforded 300 studs unless over 207 studs were added, so I decided to do a little digging.

 

Analyzing the first stud count 0-420, that averages somewhere between 10-15 points per post depending on if you count mod posts or not. That's actually quite a large leeway in either direction, but I don't know when the mods count or how much per post, so its an estimate. Almost all the time, it seems that the stud count doesn't go up when stud counts are done on the same page, so I looked at the first two pages and there were 29 posts that weren't mod posts. Which is something like 14.4 points per post. Fudging the number to 28 posts gives me 15 points per post which is a nice even number to work with.

 

Last Stud count at the end of the day was 360 plus a few extra 2-3 posts before the hammer. So I estimate around 400 points at the end of the day for ease of working with the number.

 

Day 1 we spent 3725. 3725 studs spent + 400 remaining = ~4125 total Studs day one.

 

Total post count on Day 1 was approx. 320. Subtracting out the approx. number of modly posts on Day 1 that were vote counts/stud updates (about 45) gives us 275 total posts. 275 posts * 15 points per post = ~4125 total studs. The math works out close enough, I'm confident using 15 points per post to estimate.

 

Anyway, long story short, there are about 15 points per player post give or take, but things seem to average out to about that for Day 1 at least. I know there are a lot of mushing of the numbers there on my part, but it seems to check out as a general rule. If my estimates are wrong, it is that I estimated too many points per post.

 

So, looking back to earlier when Turin purchased his upgrade. 

 

1430 Points @ Time 1

737 Points @ Time 2

 

There are 12 posts between the two, so, 12*15 = 180, let's tack on another 180 available points added between the two times.

 

So now we have 1610 Points to spend total. After total spending we have 737.

 

1610-737=873

 

Let's round that to 875 total studs spent. Now this is AT MOST with me being very generous about the 15 studs per post, I'm not sure how an extra 2 points got spent, probably rounding errors.  Though I find it interesting there are only two times in the day that increments other than 5 are added or subtracted, this time and the end of the day the other 3 points disappeared out of the count.

 

Now Turin tried to FoS Mish's claim at having bought 300 studs on account of there not being 900 studs spent. I agree with this. I don't think there were enough studs spent. 

 

However, being as the total number spent is about 875, there is only 1 item that has a value with a 75 increment. A polyjuice potion by necessity had to have been purchased during this time frame and that is 175 studs.

 

This leaves the total amount of spent points at 700. If Turin spent 600 studs, that would leave a 100 points left that were spent which is impossible.

 

Ergo... Turin must needs have lied since we know a PJ potion was purchased during that time frame.

 

Vote Turin

[_CLOUD]

Damn dude this aint a math class >.>