Darthe's Mafia Game Over. Mafia Wins.

[RandA lThor]

No, I don't think you're third party, let me explain this again.  For everyone except Dap, all I think is that they are against town, that they are some sort of anti-town.  This could possibly be third party, if there was one.  However, for Dap, if he is anti-town, I think he almost has to be mafia, even if there was a third party.  Does that make sense?

 

I believe Mish's claim of visitor, because it isn't nearly a common enough role that mafia would claim to get confirmation for a watcher, nor would it be a strong claim at all.  This makes me believe she is a visitor.  I fail to see the point of a mafia visitor because all that would do is make a watcher or something make the mafia seem more suspect by targeting certain people, and wouldn't really help them.  That's why I think she is a town visitor.

 

To view you, I would think maybe 2, because if he had viewed someone that I would think was more likely to be killed, he might have found a mafia.

 

4 on the second, because from Mish's POV, it seemed likely to her.

[Ithillian Turambar]

@ Rand - If you don't think I am 3rd Party then why was I not labelled as Mafia?

 

@ Rand - with the low numbers you have given about the likeliness of their reasoning... do you believe that Ley & Mish both did exactly what they said they did, or do you think that one of them is lying about their Role/Alignment and if so who?

[RandA lThor]

@ Rand - If you don't think I am 3rd Party then why was I not labelled as Mafia?

 

@ Rand - with the low numbers you have given about the likeliness of their reasoning... do you believe that Ley & Mish both did exactly what they said they did, or do you think that one of them is lying about their Role/Alignment and if so who?

 

I am not aware of the existence or lack of a third party.  Therefore, until it is denied by some reasoning, I put you under a generalized category unless I have a specific reason not to, like for Dap.

 

I was doing the numbers as if pre-night, what I would have thought they would have done.  Them not doing what I would have done doesn't make them scum or town, it is a null tell imo.

[Ithillian Turambar]

@ Rand ... so you think there is no chance that they worked this whole thing out together to back each other's role up? Do you think they are both Town?

[Ithillian Turambar]

@ Rand ... why again was Dap singled out to be most definitely Mafia and not just some kind of anti-town

 

I think I will have to go back to see if you ever called me just anti-town lol - because I don't think you did. I think you said I was Mafia, so now I'm confused as to why I've been downgraded to just anti-town

[Ithillian Turambar]

But that will have to wait till this evening as I have some serious hours worth of urgent price checking data yuck stuff do.

 

Got to get my head down.

[RandA lThor]

@ Rand ... so you think there is no chance that they worked this whole thing out together to back each other's role up? Do you think they are both Town?

I wouldn't say there's no chance, there's always a chance in mafia, but I do think that they are both town currently because Mish as I explained, and Ley for balance of informative roles as others have said before.

 

@ Rand ... why again was Dap singled out to be most definitely Mafia and not just some kind of anti-town

 

I think I will have to go back to see if you ever called me just anti-town lol - because I don't think you did. I think you said I was Mafia, so now I'm confused as to why I've been downgraded to just anti-town

During cases I kind of use them interchangeably, which is bad habit, but when I make lists of who I think is who, I make sure to be specific on those.

[dapianoplay3r]

If I was 3rd party I could of faked the JK claim (I'm using that short hand now)

I could have a more 3rd party like role.

 

Seems a silly distinction.

 

 

Also now you are saying you use them interchangeably, looks a little back tracky

[dapianoplay3r]

Also about the word scum and mafia, I made an effort across all my games to stop saying scum and always try to say mafia.

Just cos I tended to say scum as town and mafia as mafia, so it was a bit of a tell for me

 

Anyway just random chatting

[RandA lThor]

If I was 3rd party I could of faked the JK claim (I'm using that short hand now)

I could have a more 3rd party like role.

 

Seems a silly distinction.

 

 

Also now you are saying you use them interchangeably, looks a little back tracky

 

But you can't fake the roleblocking part of your action and could easily be called out.  THerefore I feel like you have some sort of roleblocking role which makes you not likely to be third party.

 

I use them interchangeably in general cases, because I don't really think about it.  In my lists of mafia, I actually do think about the difference in the words and use those.

[dapianoplay3r]

Dreaming god, they can have a RB

Think it through

 

Also is that a go at disgusting using meta to defend yourself...?

[Ithillian Turambar]

*pops back up*

 

Still waiting for data.

 

He is using my meta to attack me.

 

What on earth will he do/say if I ever play another Game? Erm she does this when she's Town, apart from when she does this and sometimes does that - but sometimes she just does this lol

 

Have we had a vote count today? I'm not going back 20 pages to find one.

[RandA lThor]

Dreaming god, they can have a RB

Think it through

 

Also is that a go at disgusting using meta to defend yourself...?

I kind of doubt that Darthe would use the same role twice in a row, anyways, I'm not saying I am 100% certain you can't be third party, I am saying almost sure that if you are anti-town, you are mafia.

 

And I am using meta to show how I do cases, I don't know how else to show that.

 

 

 

*pops back up*

 

Still waiting for data.

 

He is using my meta to attack me.

 

What on earth will he do/say if I ever play another Game? Erm she does this when she's Town, apart from when she does this and sometimes does that - but sometimes she just does this lol

 

Have we had a vote count today? I'm not going back 20 pages to find one.

 

Meta was a small part of the case I said, I also had other points like the large amount of vote switching, and going after PRs.

[bgrishinko]

Rand - He does seem to starting his method of near lynch flail under heavy scrutiny. He's got an explanation for everything, which to me says he's trying too hard to vet his words as sounding town. "I used 'scum' instead of 'Mafia' specifically in this case... blah blah..." But he does seem to do this town or mafia, so its a hard tell. The crutch to me comes down to how he didn't die if chuckles targeted him (or not?). I can't figure it out unless there really is a RB, but then why isn't Cloud dead? Is it more likely he'd survive as town or mafia? His role does seem to explain it, but it is quite convenient. In my experience, Mirrors are more often town. I've seen a lot more mafia watchers. 

 

@Rand - Did you have to choose to use your 1X mirror or is it passive and auto-used?

 

@Ithi - I don't remember anyone voting since your cowboy standoff really. Maybe I missed something.

 

I don't think the chances of Ley and Mish both coming to the conclusion to target Ithi is probable. Nothing about Rand's explanations has been worse than Leyrann's errors in my opinion honestly. If Leyrann really did target Ithi as town watcher, then she told the truth about Mish. I haven't ever seen a visitor in a game, seems like a balance to a watcher. It seems like the role is direct responsibility is to discover a watcher type role. Using the assumption of Mish = town for a moment, it seems more like a balancing role to me. Doc to NK, Cop to GF (or miller, or limited shot Cop), watcher to visitor. Watcher's discover visitors or visitors validate watchers. I'm just trying to think if I were mod, I'd have them on opposite teams.

 

I think we need to narrow this down:

 

Can everyone rank their top 3 options for votes: Mine are still...

 

1. Leyrann

2. Dap

3. Rand

 

Then we can tally the totals and come to some sort of agreement on who deserves to be lynched most.

[Ithillian Turambar]

I just can't easily go back to the VC from earlier - sorry.

 

@BG - you say that Mish & Ley both just happening to target me is not probable. But then you say that they must be on other team. That's doesn't make sense as if they are on different teams then they did both decide to Target me.

 

Anyway the data has arrived.

[bgrishinko]

I just can't easily go back to the VC from earlier - sorry.

 

@BG - you say that Mish & Ley both just happening to target me is not probable. But then you say that they must be on other team. That's doesn't make sense as if they are on different teams then they did both decide to Target me.

 

Anyway the data has arrived.

 

 

True. That seems contradictory, let me explain clearer what I mean. If they are on opposite teams, it becomes more probable I'd think. I'm just trying to think it through, maybe my thinking is faulty. Basically I'm try to think through everything as if it is truth first, then when the logical fallacies arrive in explanations, I come to the conclusion somebody is probably lying. Then I try to pinpoint it. Breaking it down, still going off the idea that both are truthful in roles and but not alignment (which matches what Leyrann claims he'd do):

 

Both Town - Not probable for both to pick you.

Ley Mafia, Mish Town - A mafia watcher I think is more likely to watch you (if you are town) to see if there's another cop or whatnot that might check you. Mish gets lucky.

Mish Mafia, Ley Town - Its the same improbability as both town, Mish wouldn't have any reason to think Ley would target you really I'd think 

Both mafia - Its a big daring scam, all bets are off

 

So the most likely conclusion I can come up with is Ley is most likely to mafia in this scenario. Combined with previous play and comments that Turin and you were first to point out about Ley's vote on Dap for consolidation, then again today jumping the gun on saying nothing happened to you, I'm happy with my vote.

[bgrishinko]

Official Vote Count 1:

 

Ley (1/5): BG

Ithi (1/5): Ley

Dap (1/5): Ed

Ed (1/5): Rand

 

Not voting (5/9):

Mish, Ithi, Talya, Cloud, Dap

 

51 hours until deadline

 

I think this means we have 28 hours left by the way.

 

Since this time Ithi voted and unvoted Rand, and nothing else has happened.

 

@Ithi - Why the unvote on Rand? Didn't really understand that. 

[Darthe]

That is correct.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Here are some things I've been thinking about. In various people's lists and reasonings they have been saying - such and such perhaps seems off, but they have a Town Role and so they must be Town.

 

Another thing I want people to remember is that the only Mafia who has died this Game was a Gladiator - which is a traditional Town type Role.

 

The final thing to throw into the equations is that in this Game people make stuff up. If they are Mafia and have an obviously Mafia type role then they aren't going to claim them - they are going to make up different more Townie sounding Roles.

 

So, people who are blindly accepting that everyone is telling the truth about what Role they have are making me very nervous. Especially people who are doing the 'X is suspect but they have a Town Role.

 

This is my suspicion. I don't think there are any traditional mafia type Roles in this Game. I think they all have Town type Roles. Maw was a Gladiator.

 

Also when Rand wrote out his list of who he thought was and wasn't Mafia - he used the term Vanilla for people he called Mafia. I think this is probably because there is at least 1 Vanilla Mafia on his QT. Traditionally a non roled Mafia would be called a Goon. Rand using the term Vanilla for it seemed off.

 

But I think Darthe has not used any traditional Roles for the Mafia.

 

BG has commented on the Towness of people because of their Roles.

 

I'm sorry that's a bit rambling. I will try and summarise then I need to make Tea.

 

I don't think there are ANY traditional Mafia Roles. I think the Mafia have Town type Roles.

 

And I'm suspicious of anyone who is accepting any Role Claim at face value when normally we all know that the Mafia would have to fake a claim.

 

Finally - BG, do you think that everyone on the Mafia Team had a Power Role of some kind? Do you not think that at least one would be un roled?

 

If you disagree with my Townie Role type Theory, why do you seem to accept all Roles at face value? And if you don't, who do you think is Fake Claiming?

[bgrishinko]

I'm confused Ithi:

 

You think all the mafia have Town type roles. If this is true, then they don't need to fake claim. They can confidently role claim and we can take it at face value. Not that they are town, but that they have that role.

But then you are suspicious of anyone that is accepting role claims at face value because mafia have to fake claim? 

 

Also, hasn't it been said by others that Watcher is a town role? Visitor must be a town role? I mentioned Mirror is typically a town role, but that doesn't exclude Rand from my current suspect list. The only person I've written off because of their claim is Cloud. Maybe we should put Cloud back on the lynch list then cause Doc is a typically town role, so it would make sense the mafia have that role in this game. 

 

Basically, I'm not sure the point you are trying to make. I don't think anybody is taking claims at face value, but there does seem to be evidence of the Watcher/Visitor dynamic unless its a straight up gambit which has also been discussed. There's been more than 1 night of no NK so there's evidence of protective roles on the town side, maybe last night as well. Rand's claim is fishy, but there seems to be some evidence to support the claim (read: Rand not dead, Chuckles dead). Doesn't make him town though. He's up there on my list still more than he was yesterday, so I'm not taking it at face value.

 

I doubt the whole mafia team has power roles, if everyone on the mafia team had some power I'd think we'd have seen more evidence of it. I think it highly likely that a vanilla claim is actually a goon.  

 

If anyone is fake claiming, I think it is Dap. There's an inkling in my mind that Mish and Ley might have a gambit going because of the convenience of it all, but I find it MORE likely that Ley is mafia watcher and Mish is being had and blinded by her role.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Well yes I'm suspicious cos it's my Theory and I only just posted about it. Unless you can read my mind, or were having the same thoughts, then I would expect more people to be suspicious of the Roles Claimed so far - but I just hear that they are Town Roles - so they are probably Town.

 

But Maw was a Gladiator - which is a Town Role, and Rand used the term Vanilla for un-roled Mafia, when traditionally they are Goons.

 

Is difficult to explain and would be a lot easier face to face lol - but if they all have Townie type Roles then they don't have to fake claim and they can all just keep pushing the, yes they are a bot off but they have a Town Role - so must be Town.

 

That way if one gets knocked down, the rest can point out that they did say they thought they were acting off, but they had a Town Role.

 

I just don't think it's easy enough to say Town Role = Town Alignment.

 

Either Darthe gave them Townie Type Roles to make this game more 'interesting' like he gave Maw, or some of them are lying about their Roles and so also can't be trusted.

 

That's why I say I don't like anyone accepting them at face value, because traditionally Town knows Mafia lies about their Roles OR because they know they don't have to lie this time.

 

If you have time for a cup of tea I can sit down and explain it much better.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Where's the list of claimed Roles again?

 

Also my mother in law is coming over - which means I have to be sociable in RL so will have to be anti social her

[bgrishinko]

Well, then we are saying the same thing is sounds like. I guess I was just confused at the way you stated it before.

 

This list is from Memory, but I think its right.
2. Ruairidh Misheru 2.0 - Visitor
3. Ed2funy - Vanilla
4. Ithillian - Vanilla
7. Talya - Vanilla
12. Leyrann - Wathcer
13. Dicetosser Bgrishinko - Vanilla
14. RandA lThor - 1X Mirror
17._Cloud - Doctor
18. dapianoplayer - Jailkeeper

 

 

You asked me, let me ask you:

 

Who do you think is most likely fake claiming?

 

And again, to EVERYONE, who's your top 3 lynch candidates?

[Talya]

I have one issue with your theory Ithi - Gladiator can be any alignment, not specifically town at all: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Gladiator

 

Nowhere in that role does it say mainly a town role. I'd never heard of the role before and had to look it up, I've never seen it in any game but this one. 

 

As for believing them, don't believe any, but by looking at the game dynamics, there are possibilities that what some of them are saying are more possibly true. 

[bgrishinko]

And the last time I saw a Gladiator, Darthe and I were mafia together. Darthe was the Gladiator, so I don't see that as a town role really.