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Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 10:00 AM, dicetosser1 said:


 

let’s see if I can explain

 

ok I will start with the assumption I think dpr made

 

he actually made 2

 

1 that the doc would protect me. They might they might not. With an RB in the game they might ride the odds and think I’m unlikely to get shot. We probably won’t know until after the game

 

2 he assumed that mafia want to kill me. At this point they can make me useless. Once the RB is dead so am I most likely and the doc can’t stop it because they will probably just strongman it to make sure. In the meantime I’m a distraction they think they can use because of how people have reacted to my claim. Rand, Verb, Nyn have all had negative reactions that I can think of.

 

that make sense?

 

now to respond to your post. These are my thoughts. They may be wrong

 

Now remember town might doubt my claim but the mafia basically KNOW I’m the cop. The odds of me fake claiming as town is very low but they are there.  A paranoid mafia might not believe it. Don’t think that’s the case but whatevs

 

best play for the mafia last night? Rb me so I can’t get a result and take the odds of beating the doc and getting a kill in.  The odds for that are definetly in their favour, especially with a cop out in the open.

 

a lot of the time a doc will just follow the playbook and protect the cop. So mafia can aim anywhere else and see what they get.  
 

id say that’s what this mafia did. But they ran into a doc who doesnt just follow the playbook AND managed to guess right.

 

it COULD be they targeted the hider.  That wouldn’t work. To kill that you have to kill the person they’re behind.  But mafia won’t know if it was that or they ran into the doc.

 

considering I got blocked I really really doubt they forgot to put their kill in so I think they either missed the hider or got blocked.  
 

the last bit. He’s saying worrying about me at this point is useless and it is.  Treat me like any other player except in the fact that you won’t be lynching me

 

i can be wrong in my reads like anyone else. If I get a scum result it will be correct and you will know first thing in the morning if I also live but until the rbs gone or the mafia REALLY stuff up that’s probably not going to happen.  I’m NOT CONFIRMED town but I’m the next thing to it unless someone is stupid enuff to try cc’ing me.

 

oh and btw. Normal procedure with a cc? The cc usually gets lynched first.

 

does that help? Hope so

 

 


normally the write ups are not indicative of gameplay as in they won’t give you hints of things you didn’t see.  

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Thank you for your explanation, very kind and town-like of you. Though if course everything as always is subject to WIFOM. 

 

And just to clarify - if we assume that you are the mafia RB - just for the sake of the example - you claiming cop with 2 minutes left of the day ensured that a town player was eliminated, and gave you two nights to use your PR as even if the real cop CC's the next day they will be eliminated first? If following standard procedure? I just want to get the benefits of false claims clear in my head, not insinuating anything. 

Posted

Generally that’s how it plays out. It’s not 100% but I’d guess it’s more then 50%

 

you saw me talk about clout earlier? That can change things

 

sometimes HOW you claim factors in.  


Sometimes it’s about what the various people say their actions were.

 

 

im sure there will be people who disagree with me.

Posted

Oh and just a note with my claim 

 

notice I had already considered how I was going to get my results out if the gf was alive. I had to because I knew I was the cop days before any of you did.

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 9:11 AM, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

So you are saying that if Dice is the wolfiest wolf of all time or lock clear town that is irrelevant? I think even if we are not going to eliminate him it still feels pretty important to resolve this issue (if possible) to help solve. 

 

Something about your logic is just setting me on edge. Cannot put a finger on it. 

 

Can I ask why did you bring up we should all post if I were cop, doctor etc., just to drop it again without further mention. Did DPR think it was a bad move? Too obvious? 

 

Something doesn't feel right. Did anyone else notice that in the night Turin pops up to set up an attack on Verb and then DPR takes over. Like a tag team. After a bit Turin comes back into the thread and walks back his pro-Dice arguments. Am I just paranoid? 

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Probably,  that doesn't mean they are not out to get you, lol.

I'm only one person. The game as a whole decided to ignore my idea. It isn't effective if only I do it. Last game I beat the drum to try to get townies to do things and it got me killed, twice. As to DPR's opinion I don't know, I don't care. NO ONE WAS INTERESTED,  so I dropped it. You can lead a town to water but you can't make them think.

 

We can't solve Dice until he either dies, or the real Cop (if it's not him) either dies or cc's him. We aren't going to run him up again. Hes still the un cc'd cop. So it's wasted effort presently. There are at least 3 other non town entities to find. I am using my time to try to locate them and perhaps in so doing we will get additional information regarding Dice. The longer the game goes without a cc, the more likely Dice IS the cop. My opinion is now is not the time to settle the Dice issue. Like I said to Rand, you do you. 

Are you so sure Verb is town? I'm certainly not. He's used bad logic imo. He flat out lied about me defending ithi excessively. He has apparently ignored several people making one of his supposed mafia tells, or at least hasn't taken notice of them. I'm not sure DPR is town either. So to think I'm in any way tag teaming with him is ludicrous. What pro Dice comments? I was voting him when I went to sleep. He remains the UN CC'D COP at this time and as such is off the table for me. I am NOT treating him as cleared and I will still take note and comment if he does anything else I consider sketchy. I just will not be voting him or even consider voting him until more information comes along.

Show your work if you want to come at.me. maybe even give us where you stand right now. If you've posted them recently,  let me know that and I will find them. 

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 12:55 AM, RandA lThor said:

@Ithillian Turambar I suspect you may have more to say now that its day?

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Hi yup. I didn't want to die on Night 1 lol, so figured if Dice is Town he couldn't kill me and he he has actually pulled off a fake cop claim,  then he wouldn't kill me cos I said I thought def Town.

 

I mean I know he could be Mafia, but I'm really trying to not get tied up in knots, so I still feel, on the balance of probabilities that he's more likely to be Town.

 

I've modded the last 3 games and not once has any of the Mafia tried to pull off a hail mary. Of course now we have the old school back, so anything is possible, but I still think it would be a tad too early for anything dramatic and they'd probably just take the hit and move on.

 

Let me see how far I can get through. My work has this great thing of taking you out your normal role for a day, and then expecting you to do twice as much normal stuff the next day. But I've been working super hard to make sure I've got time to play.

Posted

Also Darthe's scene confused me. There was a dead body hanging up, but no one died? I've read it a couple of times now, but no actual dead player so that's very good. I'm thinking either a good job by the Doc, the BVP on the condemn dude or the Hider was targeted?

 

You know it's very clever how that means the Mafia can't figure out Town roles just cos they missed. 

 

You've probably all already said this.

  • RP - PLAYER
Posted

I'm processing a lot of information at the moment - not sure I really want to try and crunch it all down to one list at this point. 

 

Thanks for your feedback. 

 

Tbf, I'm not defending Verb, I'm a bit sketchy of the attacks on him, if you get the difference. Yes, he has passed Rand "bobbing his head in agreement" and I think Rand at that point was quoting or paraphrasing Nyn? Not sure. But tbf it was wolf!Verb that was using that tell to justify his sussing Seph iirc.

 

The thing that is bothering me most at the moment is Tigraine. I don't get the anti-Rand argument. He's your son, for Pete's sake. (sorry, couldn't resist). But correct me if wrong - Rand should have picked up on Dice's hints. (I totally didn't, though not sure that carries much weight). Therefore he is scummy as get out. But this seems awful logic. If Town!Rand picked up the hints, he would have backed off, but he didn't. If wolf!Rand picked up the hints, he would have voted and suddenly been unreachable - killing the cop and having complete plausible deniability and WIFOM. Hanging about and arguing Dice isn't giving him enough to go on only seems compatible with Town!Rand who isn't getting the hints. Wolf!Rand deciding to not go for the cop kill in favour of some town cred (which according to Tig was actually the scummiest move ever, so hardly an effective gambit) seems really suboptimal play. 

 

But again we are getting to the point where I'm getting pinged by players an order of magnitude more than there are wolves. I would suck in a closed setup game. Or be in my element, lol. Yeah, probably not.

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 9:11 AM, RandA lThor said:

As long as we're speaking openly about why there could be no death, lets also not forget the BPV the condemner has?

 

Len was the other person to immediately assume doc, but I don't think any one person knows what happened, so I don't think any lack of knowledge is indicative, unless mafia used the strongarm and they still got no kill (they targeted the hider, and then only mafia would know what happened). If mafia used normal kill, they have no way of knowing if it was the condemner, the hider, or the person saved by the doc. And each of those roles don't know if it was their ability that saved them.

 

Unfortunately that means my whole theory that the doc has a confirmed townie is also DOA, and until either Dice gets CCed or we can get rid of the roleblocker, the only "hard information" we can work off of is deaths and their reveals.

 

@Darthe setup question if we can ask, would the condemner be notified if their BPV was hit and it saved them? And to clarify, the 1x BPV is an always on, one-off shield right? As opposed to a BPV you can only activate one night?

 

Which brings me back to IE, our only hard information. Mafia would have to be pretty lucky to get IE voted out without any involvement. Dice is untouchable today barring a CC. Aside from obv i trust myself, I was forced to vote for IE to consolidate away from Dice, so it's NAI. That leaves Ithi, Key, and DPR. I think it makes more sense to hunt in this group, it's smaller, has active players with telltale signs one way or another.

 

Of this group, I am concretely feeling DPR > Ithi > Key in scumminess. What are others feeling here (include me especially if you think my vote on Marsh WAS alignment indicative, though I disagree with that premise)?

 

Outside this group, there's my town reads anyways (Verbal, Nyn, Turin). Ed who I think is maybe scummy but for one reason or the other he agrees with me on my big bad. Heavy is confusing/neutral and I honestly dont want to deal with evaluating him if there's easier places to search for mafia to start, and we can crack that egg later with more info. Lenlo I have a slight town read, Tigs a slight scum read, mainly based on vibes, and some arguments from Tigs that didn't sit completely right with me. But overall, yeah definitely feels murkier and less chances in this group of 7 to find what Id estimate to be 1-2 scum, and lower probability than my estimate of 1 among DPR, Ithi, Key 

Expand  

I forgot about the 3p having a BPV. That is certainly an option to having no death. Unfortunately,  neither the mafia nor the 3p is going to tell us if this is what happened. Doc stopping the kill is the immediate thought so *shrug* about speculation. 

I kinda disagree with your take on the Marsh train. When many people went to sleep it was 3-3 between Dice ( the claimed cop) and Ironeyes ( now confirmed town). I would say that mafia were pretty safe in thinking a townie was going down. (I'm assuming for this Dice is town) they don't care which one as long as their team survive the day. I think we need to pay attention to the people that didn't  do much ( Ed and Tigraine, Len to lesser extent) and the people that were there at EoD. For this exercise that means DPR, Rand, and Verb. My take is that mafia would want to at least check to see what was happening to ensure everthing continued in a way they stayed safe. 

I don't suppose it hurts to look at it both ways though. 

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 9:14 AM, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

@Darthe can I ask if your wonderful scenes are indicative of gameplay? As in it really seems like in your story someone got NKd and then revived by the Doc. Can we take this as what happened or could it be due to hider or bpv? 

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I hope not cause...

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 11:04 AM, DPR said:

@dicetosser1 Did you already explain why you chose Verb? I have to go back and look, but I don’t remember him being on your sus list. 

Expand  

Nope I didn’t and no he wasnt

 

i chose him because I didn’t like the way he was acting at eod and immediately after. 

 

 

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 10:00 AM, dicetosser1 said:


 

let’s see if I can explain

 

ok I will start with the assumption I think dpr made

 

he actually made 2

 

1 that the doc would protect me. They might they might not. With an RB in the game they might ride the odds and think I’m unlikely to get shot. We probably won’t know until after the game

 

2 he assumed that mafia want to kill me. At this point they can make me useless. Once the RB is dead so am I most likely and the doc can’t stop it because they will probably just strongman it to make sure. In the meantime I’m a distraction they think they can use because of how people have reacted to my claim. Rand, Verb, Nyn have all had negative reactions that I can think of.

 

that make sense?

 

now to respond to your post. These are my thoughts. They may be wrong

 

Now remember town might doubt my claim but the mafia basically KNOW I’m the cop. The odds of me fake claiming as town is very low but they are there.  A paranoid mafia might not believe it. Don’t think that’s the case but whatevs

 

best play for the mafia last night? Rb me so I can’t get a result and take the odds of beating the doc and getting a kill in.  The odds for that are definetly in their favour, especially with a cop out in the open.

 

a lot of the time a doc will just follow the playbook and protect the cop. So mafia can aim anywhere else and see what they get.  
 

id say that’s what this mafia did. But they ran into a doc who doesnt just follow the playbook AND managed to guess right.

 

it COULD be they targeted the hider.  That wouldn’t work. To kill that you have to kill the person they’re behind.  But mafia won’t know if it was that or they ran into the doc.

 

considering I got blocked I really really doubt they forgot to put their kill in so I think they either missed the hider or got blocked.  
 

the last bit. He’s saying worrying about me at this point is useless and it is.  Treat me like any other player except in the fact that you won’t be lynching me

 

i can be wrong in my reads like anyone else. If I get a scum result it will be correct and you will know first thing in the morning if I also live but until the rbs gone or the mafia REALLY stuff up that’s probably not going to happen.  I’m NOT CONFIRMED town but I’m the next thing to it unless someone is stupid enuff to try cc’ing me.

 

oh and btw. Normal procedure with a cc? The cc usually gets lynched first.

 

does that help? Hope so

 

 


normally the write ups are not indicative of gameplay as in they won’t give you hints of things you didn’t see.  

Expand  

I must say I disagree with your assessment.  Imo if the mafia truly believe you they kill you with their Strongman. This eliminates all future chance of them getting peeked and allows them to use their RB to attempt to block the doc. The doc can't self protect so they don't need the Strongman for that. 

The random shot getting blocked in some way is a possibility. I don't really think it matters too.much as right now we can't know how it happened. 

Last thing about resolving a potential cc is that if it involves a red peek, the peek gets lynched first. Unless it's lylo then it a guessing game.

Posted
  On 4/22/2025 at 11:32 PM, dicetosser1 said:

 

 

confused

 

i WAS mucking around with him with the vote but as part of that mucking around I WOULD have done it too. But there was no alignment stuff in it

 

he has shifted tone from your zen heavy to manic so I can’t get a bead and I don’t understand what he’s saying most of the time

 

the one thing I was clear on was there was something weird with him and marsh and I said the weird one was marsh.

 

heavy is in my null pile cause I have no idea

 

 


 

I will tell you it isn’t exactly what a mafia would do. Mafia wait til a few mins out 5 or 10 maybe? And they just out and out claim

 

they DONT sit there trying to make you THINK and realise you need to get off them without actually claiming.

 

TOWN does if their trying to not claim when their the power role.

 

now to qualify there are some players who might do that as scum. A Cory or Tom or maybe dpr but they can because they have clout. People listen to them. Follow them.

 

i DONT have clout. Even claiming cop it’s a pretty even chance I get lynched ANYWAY. I’ve claimed doc and been lynched before. THAT has happened so much it’s an in joke here!

 

look at what’s happening here.  I claimed and half the thread doesnt believe me. The chances of me being able to get them to believe me is somewhere between bucklers and f all because I’m either going to be RBd into oblivion or out right killed. Most likely RBd cause it gives the mafia a distraction point to use

 

so fake claiming cop as mafia really isn’t much use to me.

 


right I’m gonna get on my computer and pull together the votes. I actually shouldn’t have been in danger. I wasn’t really until you and verb jumped on. I’d voted marsh to get a break between us so should have been good

 

as for subtle…. THEY WERENT!!! They weren’t meant to be subtle they were MEANt to make you stop think and comprehend. But apparently I expected too much.

 


funny how in 95% of games a in ccd cop claim gets trusted. Guess this is just one of those 5%ers huh?  Also funny how verb immeadiately started calling for a cv to happen.  But that’s normal right?

 

I will get the bus but iirc you moved to someone with one vote on him when there was a person with four? I think and there was only two minutes left. You yell at me about knowing how many people weren’t around but you did that?

 

do you even know what consolidation is?

 

 

As said before this is NOT how I’d have done it. I would have just claimed it straight out and earlier

 

 

this I like

 

 

 

Iirc this was in response to the Turin quote I have above.  Just to explain my thinking.  I like turins post because I’ve had the same thoughts. It’s why I already knew I was going to have a possible town section in my reads because I can’t be sure of any town results until the gf is dead. Now that I’m out I can just be straight up with what I get

 

if. And it’s a big if. I come out with a red peek it has to be lynched. 
 

1 because it is scum. Or

 

2 because if I say it is and it isn’t then I’m instantly outted to be a fake claim and I’m solved

 

turin is basically saying he will treat me like any other player UNLESS I have a scum RESULT.  Which is what should happen.

Expand  

This bit of stuff? To be honest there isn't much there. I can understand you can't wrap your head around him. I'm not sure of his alignment myself. I don't see much still but I understand??

 

I must say I still don't like the willingness to lynch for lols. That's just me though.

Posted

Hi guys

I skipped ahead just to see the opening day scene.

 

Can't catch up properly atm. My dad fell and is currently hospitalized... he's ok but pretty banged up. Orbital fracture, nasty swollen eye and some fractures in his right shoulder.

 

I will try to catch up to some extent later on when I'm done visiting with him. Make it a fun loving read and not migraine potential pls lol  

Posted

Town needs to focus and simplify: 

 

I see no world where the mafia holstered - whoever said that is just trying to muddy the water. 
 

I see no world where the doc didn’t cover dice last night. Anyone suggesting this is just trying to muddy the water. 
 

I see no world where Towndice false claimed cop. That would run the risk of having the real cop cc, which would be a disaster.

 

These things are just common sense, no?  The mafia knows all of this. 
 

Given the above, I see no world where mafia doesn’t use their strongman shot to kill dice. 
 

That would mean mafiadice has false claimed  cop and the mafia team shot at someone that was either the hider, who was hiding, or the condemner, who’s bpv blocked the shot.

 

I’m open to having missed something, but the above just seems obvious. 

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 11:48 AM, Nynaeve said:

Hi guys

I skipped ahead just to see the opening day scene.

 

Can't catch up properly atm. My dad fell and is currently hospitalized... he's ok but pretty banged up. Orbital fracture, nasty swollen eye and some fractures in his right shoulder.

 

I will try to catch up to some extent later on when I'm done visiting with him. Make it a fun loving read and not migraine potential pls lol  

Expand  

Sorry to hear that. Positive vibes to aid your dad in healing. Take care and don't worry about the game. It will still be here.

  • RP - PLAYER
Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 11:48 AM, Nynaeve said:

Hi guys

I skipped ahead just to see the opening day scene.

 

Can't catch up properly atm. My dad fell and is currently hospitalized... he's ok but pretty banged up. Orbital fracture, nasty swollen eye and some fractures in his right shoulder.

 

I will try to catch up to some extent later on when I'm done visiting with him. Make it a fun loving read and not migraine potential pls lol  

Expand  

Hope he recovers quickly.

 

Re: your last point, I'm not going to promise something I cannot deliver. But I'll try to play nice 🙂

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 11:09 AM, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

I'm processing a lot of information at the moment - not sure I really want to try and crunch it all down to one list at this point. 

 

Thanks for your feedback. 

 

Tbf, I'm not defending Verb, I'm a bit sketchy of the attacks on him, if you get the difference. Yes, he has passed Rand "bobbing his head in agreement" and I think Rand at that point was quoting or paraphrasing Nyn? Not sure. But tbf it was wolf!Verb that was using that tell to justify his sussing Seph iirc.

 

The thing that is bothering me most at the moment is Tigraine. I don't get the anti-Rand argument. He's your son, for Pete's sake. (sorry, couldn't resist). But correct me if wrong - Rand should have picked up on Dice's hints. (I totally didn't, though not sure that carries much weight). Therefore he is scummy as get out. But this seems awful logic. If Town!Rand picked up the hints, he would have backed off, but he didn't. If wolf!Rand picked up the hints, he would have voted and suddenly been unreachable - killing the cop and having complete plausible deniability and WIFOM. Hanging about and arguing Dice isn't giving him enough to go on only seems compatible with Town!Rand who isn't getting the hints. Wolf!Rand deciding to not go for the cop kill in favour of some town cred (which according to Tig was actually the scummiest move ever, so hardly an effective gambit) seems really suboptimal play. 

 

But again we are getting to the point where I'm getting pinged by players an order of magnitude more than there are wolves. I would suck in a closed setup game. Or be in my element, lol. Yeah, probably not.

Expand  

Good catch noticing what I was talking about. However,  he did use that phrase in the game he was vig and town as well so it isn't just a thing he does as mafia. That he ignored it apparently is troubling to me.

When I have too many mafia in my head I concentrate on one and see where that goes. If Tigraine is sketchy to you see if you can sort it out. See where it goes. If it's nothing pick someone else that bugs you.

 

You might make it into my town yet.

  • RP - PLAYER
Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 11:57 AM, DPR said:

Town needs to focus and simplify: 

 

I see no world where the mafia holstered - whoever said that is just trying to muddy the water. 
 

I see no world where the doc didn’t cover dice last night. Anyone suggesting this is just trying to muddy the water. 
 

I see no world where Towndice false claimed cop. That would run the risk of having the real cop cc, which would be a disaster.

 

These things are just common sense, no?  The mafia knows all of this. 
 

Given the above, I see no world where mafia doesn’t use their strongman shot to kill dice. 
 

That would mean mafiadice has false claimed  cop and the mafia team shot at someone that was either the hider, who was hiding, or the condemner, who’s bpv blocked the shot.

 

I’m open to having missed something, but the above just seems obvious. 

Expand  

This feels like an about face (though that could just be me) - or does this not affect your spat with Rand. If you think Dice is mafia, does that change your view on Rand's alignment?

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 11:57 AM, DPR said:

Town needs to focus and simplify: 

 

I see no world where the mafia holstered - whoever said that is just trying to muddy the water. 
 

I see no world where the doc didn’t cover dice last night. Anyone suggesting this is just trying to muddy the water. 
 

I see no world where Towndice false claimed cop. That would run the risk of having the real cop cc, which would be a disaster.

 

These things are just common sense, no?  The mafia knows all of this. 
 

Given the above, I see no world where mafia doesn’t use their strongman shot to kill dice. 
 

That would mean mafiadice has false claimed  cop and the mafia team shot at someone that was either the hider, who was hiding, or the condemner, who’s bpv blocked the shot.

 

I’m open to having missed something, but the above just seems obvious. 

Expand  


See now what’s with you going on about “this is the ONLY way something could have happened” when we have multiple variations of what could have happened. 
feels like DPR is trying to push a narrative because he’s DPR and has played a dozen games or whatever. BUT he could still be wrong so “awh shucks, [he] didn’t mean to get the cop lynched!”

Posted
  On 4/23/2025 at 11:57 AM, DPR said:

Town needs to focus and simplify: 

 

I see no world where the mafia holstered - whoever said that is just trying to muddy the water. 
 

I see no world where the doc didn’t cover dice last night. Anyone suggesting this is just trying to muddy the water. 
 

I see no world where Towndice false claimed cop. That would run the risk of having the real cop cc, which would be a disaster.

 

These things are just common sense, no?  The mafia knows all of this. 
 

Given the above, I see no world where mafia doesn’t use their strongman shot to kill dice. 
 

That would mean mafiadice has false claimed  cop and the mafia team shot at someone that was either the hider, who was hiding, or the condemner, who’s bpv blocked the shot.

 

I’m open to having missed something, but the above just seems obvious. 

Expand  

You lack vision. Just because you cant see it, doesn't mean it cant be. People play hunches on NAs all the time. The best players frequently don't follow the playbook.

 

I said it. I don't think that acknowledging all options is  muddying the waters. I stated the possibility but essentially dismissed it immediately. 

The doc not covering Dice is not so clear. Maybe the doc doesn't believe Dice or didn't think they could stop the Strongman. Maybe the mafia flat out didn't believe him, because if thats the case then they wouldn't have shot at him. You are sounding like salty mafia your kill didn't go through for some reason you dont understand. 

Your conclusion that Dice is mafia faking cop means there is a real Cop out there probably with some sort of a result as it would be blind luck for mafia to have blocked them. 

 

This whole post by you is one big steaming pile of WIFOM. 

 

I had high hopes and now I’m crushed.

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