S3 is losing viewers says Samba

[books of Robert Jordan]

Minus 6%

[LTL]

Minus 6% from what?

[Elder_Haman]

An alternative perspective:

 

Season 3 currently enjoys an 83% fresh audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. (94% with critics) [https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_wheel_of_time/s03]

 

It is also scoring very well on Metacritic, earning a 9.0 audience score. [https://www.metacritic.com/tv/the-wheel-of-time/season-3/]

 

It is second only to Reacher on Amazon: https://www.techradar.com/streaming/amazon-prime-video/the-wheel-of-time-season-3-is-prime-videos-2-show-here-are-3-more-fantasy-series-with-over-85-percent-on-rotten-tomatoes

 

IMDB currently rates it as the 14th most popular streaming show:

https://m.imdb.com/chart/tvmeter/?ref_=tt_ov_pop

 

So, I suspect overall viewership will increase as time goes on. 

[Elder_Haman]

Also wanted to supply this link:

 

TVstats shows Wheel of Time season 3 as the 9th most popular show (#3 on Prime / #3 sci-fi/fantasy series / #9 drama) and lists it with an online engagement score of 23.91 which qualifies as high engagement.

The Wheel of Time (TV) - Stats, Ratings, Viewership

[Pandemonium]

6% from an outside source is probably not a conclusive enough data source, and could easily fall into the statistical noise category.  I would be much more worried if I saw 20% drop or something substantial.

 

only Prime has the official numbers so it will be interesting to see if they make any press release.  This press release said that Reacher season 3 include viewership by 0.5% from season 2 and has the most viewers of any return season on Amazon.  https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/reacher-season-3-ratings-1236336510/Wheel of time could easily show an increase, like Reacher, once the final numbers are tallied.  If Amazon doesn't make a PR in the first month though, it will probably mean things aren't doing so great.  

[Agitel]

Can't believe I'm saying this, but if this season performs worse than two I hope Amazon will take into consideration the better critical reviews. Even if it starts lower I think S3 could have legs and word of mouth and really be the foundation for a true hit. 

Edited March 21 by Agitel

[Sabio]

My concern is the last episode, so far, the series has been horrible when it comes to the final episode of the season.

[Mailman]

  On 3/20/2025 at 9:04 PM, Pandemonium said:

6% from an outside source is probably not a conclusive enough data source, and could easily fall into the statistical noise category.  I would be much more worried if I saw 20% drop or something substantial.

 

only Prime has the official numbers so it will be interesting to see if they make any press release.  This press release said that Reacher season 3 include viewership by 0.5% from season 2 and has the most viewers of any return season on Amazon.  https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/reacher-season-3-ratings-1236336510/Wheel of time could easily show an increase, like Reacher, once the final numbers are tallied.  If Amazon doesn't make a PR in the first month though, it will probably mean things aren't doing so great.  

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I think expecting the studio to do anything but spin the numbers to put a positive angle on any decision is foolish. Even if they were to cancel the series they will say the numbers are good but attribute it to some other reason they are not going forward.

 

Disney has found positive things to say about all it's SW tv series despite them being wound up.

Edited March 21 by Mailman

[DigificWriter]

Jon from WoT Up was given indications that any holdups in a Season 4 renewal are on Sony Pictures Television's end, not Amazon's.

[books of Robert Jordan]

A friend of mine just called: now another company called Luminate saying the public was not interested in S3. (Number by Nielsen is three weeks away.)

Will Amazon comment this situation at all?

Edited March 22 by books of Robert Jordan

[Elder_Haman]

  On 3/22/2025 at 10:34 AM, books of Robert Jordan said:

Will Amazon comment this situation at all?

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On your friend’s hearsay? Likely not. 

[Samt]

I don’t have any numbers, but I think it was always going to be a challenge for numbers to go up season over season in this type of show if the early seasons aren’t well liked.  Regardless of how good season 3 is, new viewers will have to watch the first two seasons to understand what is going on(and that probably even applies to book readers since the story has diverged so far).  
 

If season 1 is great, you can tell people that the show is great and already into the third season.  If it doesn’t get good until season 3, you’re stuck telling people to bear 16 hours to get to the good part.  That’s a much less compelling sell.

[Elder_Haman]

  On 3/22/2025 at 5:03 PM, Samt said:

I don’t have any numbers

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So far, most of the available metrics are positive. The OP's source about a 6% drop is based on an extremely limited data set. (Samba is an opt-in service that only tracks TV data - not laptop or mobile streams - and only for people subscribed.)

 

As of today, it's Amazon's #3 show and is ranked #10 among all streaming shows. It still has an online engagement score of 25.11, which qualifies as high engagement. https://televisionstats.com/s/the-wheel-of-time#

 

[BookMattBetterThanShow]

 

As a book lover, I must admit that I was initially disappointed with the first season of the show. I gave it a C-, and I gave season 2 a B. However, I’m thrilled to say that season 3 has completely turned things around! It’s been a solid A for me. Sure, there are a few minor issues, but they’re nothing too significant. 

 

When the show was first announced, I recommended it to my friends and family, telling them that the books were incredibly good. Unfortunately, most of them didn’t come back for season 2.  I told them I was really enjoying season 3 and that they should give it another chance, but they were hesitant about having to go through season 2. Now I am wondering if I should just recommend they just watch certain episodes of season 2, just the ones need to get them into season 3. Just not sure which ones I could have them skip and still understand season 3?

 

[Kaleb]

  On 3/22/2025 at 5:36 PM, BookMattBetterThanShow said:

Now I am wondering if I should just recommend they just watch certain episodes of season 2, just the ones need to get them into season 3. Just not sure which ones I could have them skip and still understand season 3?

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Unraveling the Pattern did the official Amazon recap pre-season 3, and this 30 minute "Director's Cut" recap of the first two seasons would probably be enough to get them up to speed.

 

[Mailman]

  On 3/22/2025 at 5:08 PM, Elder_Haman said:

So far, most of the available metrics are positive. The OP's source about a 6% drop is based on an extremely limited data set. (Samba is an opt-in service that only tracks TV data - not laptop or mobile streams - and only for people subscribed.)

 

As of today, it's Amazon's #3 show and is ranked #10 among all streaming shows. It still has an online engagement score of 25.11, which qualifies as high engagement. https://televisionstats.com/s/the-wheel-of-time#

 

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Just to provide some information to put that into focus

 

 

 

That is its engagement compared to the current number 1

 

Its engagement of 25.11 is less than half of Reacher which comes in at 52 and 65 for Invincible on the Amazon list

Edited March 22 by Mailman

[Elder_Haman]

This is an interesting data set from Parrot Analytics (dated 3/11/25):

https://tv.parrotanalytics.com/US/the-wheel-of-time-amazon-prime-video/amp
 

This article makes the case that WoT is a better investment for Amazon than RoP:

https://www.parrotanalytics.com/insights/rings-of-power-vs-the-wheel-of-time-amazon-revenue/

 

[Mailman]

  On 3/25/2025 at 5:45 PM, Elder_Haman said:

This is an interesting data set from Parrot Analytics (dated 3/11/25):

https://tv.parrotanalytics.com/US/the-wheel-of-time-amazon-prime-video/amp
 

This article makes the case that WoT is a better investment for Amazon than RoP:

https://www.parrotanalytics.com/insights/rings-of-power-vs-the-wheel-of-time-amazon-revenue/

 

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That data set seems really weird.

 

The change in demand is only +51.9% from when there was no new content? I would have thought that figure would be much bigger. Especially considering it is 18 months since the last season I cannot imagine Season 1 and 2 where drawing massive figures in Feb 2025.

 

The same goes for the other set it seems to be comparing it to all other titles across the entire market. So that is comparing a new release brand to series that are not active or even complete.

 

If this is true it feels very much like a site designed to produce a couple of good looking graphs.

 

Did just notice the article date if so its very hard to take anything from that early in a cycle with any accuracy.

Edited Tuesday at 10:06 PM by Mailman

[Elder_Haman]

  On 3/25/2025 at 9:41 PM, Mailman said:

The change in demand is only +51.9% from when there was no new content?

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Yes. If you cross reference this data with the historical data from televisionstats.com, you'll see that there was a significant spike in engagement with Wheel of Time content in mid-February. It went from #369 overall on February 6 to #151 overall on February 13 and then climbed again to #75 overall on February 21. 

 

Parrot's rolling average would take into account this spike which, I suspect, was related to viewers going back to re-watch in advance of S3 and tuning in to watch the 11-minute special release.

 

  On 3/25/2025 at 9:41 PM, Mailman said:

The same goes for the other set it seems to be comparing it to all other titles across the entire market. So that is comparing a new release brand to series that are not active or even complete.

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Correct. But what is wrong with that? Parrot explains precisely what the data set does:

  Quote

The Demand Distribution curve illustrates how a TV show’s popularity compares to the demand benchmark, which is a measure of the average demand across all titles. The curve is divided into performance buckets, ranging from “Below Average” to “Exceptional”. A show falls into one of these performance buckets depending on how many times more or less demand it has compared to the demand benchmark.

The show’s performance is market-specific, e.g. the same show can be in the “Average” range in the United States and in the “Good” range in France.

As an example, if a show has 9 times more demand than the demand benchmark, it falls in the “Outstanding” performance range; only 2.7% of all shows in the market reach this high level of demand.

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Can you explain why or how this is somehow invalid?

 

  On 3/25/2025 at 9:41 PM, Mailman said:

If this is true it feels very much like a site designed to produce a couple of good looking graphs.

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Right. I'm sure this multi-million dollar analytics company (currently valued at $13.4M) who is trusted by many industry leaders is rolling out "a site designed to produce a couple of good looking graphs." 

 

Edited Wednesday at 01:48 PM by Elder_Haman

[DigificWriter]

It really shows how desperate some of the people who don't like the show are when they are grasping at 'doomsaying'.

 

The show isn't nearly in as much danger as some people think - or are, unfortunately, hoping - that it is.

 

 

[Elder_Haman]

  On 3/26/2025 at 1:56 PM, DigificWriter said:

The show isn't nearly in as much danger as some people think

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I don't know if I'd go that far. No renewal announcement is a bad sign no matter which way you slice it. But if it isn't renewed, it won't be because the show isn't getting engagement.

[Agitel]

Still think it'd be a mistake on Amazon's part. The show finally seems to be getting its quality/critical momentum. If any of the issue is due to lack of viewer trust after seasons one and two, I think this could bring it back given some time to run on its legs and really build momentum. 

[Elder_Haman]

  On 3/26/2025 at 2:06 PM, Agitel said:

Still think it'd be a mistake on Amazon's part. The show finally seems to be getting its quality/critical momentum. If any of the issue is due to lack of viewer trust after seasons one and two, I think this could bring it back given some time to run on its legs and really build momentum. 

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I agree 100%

[DigificWriter]

  On 3/26/2025 at 2:00 PM, Elder_Haman said:

No renewal announcement is a bad sign

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It isn't, though.

 

Television shows being renewed either before or during the broadcast of their current seasons, while more common now than it has been in the past, is still not Standard Operating Procedure for the TV industry, which normally only makes renewal and cancellation announcements in May at the Upfronts.

[Elder_Haman]

  On 3/26/2025 at 2:14 PM, DigificWriter said:

 

It isn't, though.

 

Television shows being renewed either before or during the broadcast of their current seasons, while more common now than it has been in the past, is still not Standard Operating Procedure for the TV industry, which normally only makes renewal and cancellation announcements in May at the Upfronts.

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Sure. I don't claim to have any specialized knowledge of the industry. On the other hand, we are already waiting 18-24 months between seasons. S4 will not get a running start without a renewal notice. The longer the gap between S3 and S4 is likely to be, the less excited the studio will be to renew. It's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy in a way.