The Wheel Turns / End of an Age / Winter is Coming

[Elgee]

I find it fascination to compare the current situation in the world due to the Corona Virus, to the reactions of the characters in the 2 main series which we here on DM talk about, namely the WoT and ASoIF / Game of Thrones.

 

To recap, in both there is a "The End of the World is Nigh" scenario. In WoT, it actually happens twice: firstly when the Dark One breaks free at the end of the Age of Legends, and then again in the "current" time in WoT (won't say more, because spoilers). 

 

There's not much information regarding the reactions of people in WoTs end of the Age of Legends, but as for the rest, the similarities with our current situation are frightening in the extreme.

I'm talking about normal people who either ignore the situation, and thereby infect not only themselves but other people.

And of course, the politicians / nobles who are mostly only trying to gain power and position / remain in power or position, rather than listening to the experts and trying to do their best to save the world.

 

Basically we need the Dragon Reborn (he did a bit of a better job than The Dragon v1), or Jon Snow?

 

Discuss.

[haycraftd]

I keep on wondering when people are going to wake up to the fact we're committing suicide.  And that the coronavirus isn't all that scary to most of us if you ignore the headlines and look at the information behind it.  You've got to keep in mind that just about everything is propaganda.  The world actually begins to make sense once you finally realize that.

 

Yesterday, "The Coronavirus killed the youngest person yet in the UK."  But, when you read the article--(you can't skim it)--it gets a lot murkier.  You find out the guy was in his forties, and that he had "MND."  So, you look further in the article to find out what MND actually is, and it takes some work, because it's very carefully hid between several facts that at first look more important.  It's called "Motor-Neural Disease." Hmmm. 

 

So, then you Google "Motor-Neural Disease" to find out what Motor-Neural Disease actually is, and find out that it would have actually put him at a very high risk. Hmm.  So, you turn back to the article, and, finally, you find out that he wasn't expected to live all that much longer anyway.  So, while the guy was the "youngest ever," you can safely conclude that his age was probably irrelevant.

 

That's not fueling panic at all?  And don't you wonder why those important facts are so well-hid?

 

Yes, there are plenty of vulnerable people and we need to be cautious, but there's careful and then there's panic.  We need to be realistic: (I'm sorry to everyone who is vulnerable, here, since I'm speaking when I'm not): those most at risk are ALREADY most at risk for other diseases, too.  Mine would probably just be a severe cold.  And I think that goes for most of us.  Quarantines might be good for a couple of weeks while you take a breath and assess everything, but when you kill the economy, you have even a lesser chance of helping the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.

[Liitha]

The problem with that is about 40 percent of the population probably has higher risk, not all who has higher risk get severely sick, just as not all who are not at risk avoid geting severely sick.

 

And the oxymoron as some say when you succeed with a strategy for contamening an disease like this you are generally seen as a mooron (because due to success nothing happened)

 

The big problem here isnt the people who die granted they dont die due to lack of help, the big problem is if enough get seriously ill so they overrun healthcare, because then people who normally wouldnt die will die due to lack of help.

 

And the effect that scenario has on economy long term is a lot worse on the economy at least in most of the western world which serious buisnis owners know that run good buisnises and dont take shortcuts.

 

Because not only do you go low on manpower when people is sick or someone in family is sick, its also the aftereffect that drags out for those who get severely sick. Which means they may be less able to contribute, and unfortunately many at risk people cant handle  many of the physical jobbs so they often in desk jobbs maybe in key positions, if you take out enough of those over long periods its going to be just as hampering..because everyone lack them and so the market will soon be drained for replacements.

 

Then things stop up anyway not for lack of manpower.  If the hospitals get swamped and nurses and doctors get sick and are gone and die, patients wont get treatments, the lines of sick who could otherwise be healthy from relative easy fixing will grow etc

 

So the problem here is when it grow out of controll due to the butterfly effect of how it will affect there will be major exonomic cost anyway. The most efficient way would have been give everyone one week to stock up and world wide shut down combined for 6 week. Kill it out more or less and then strict regime on any pop ups. 

 

They didnt so now its loose and free and we likely have to live with resurgances for a couple years at least. We got the knowledge and tools to stop pandemics today much more then in past, we just refuse to believe its here and therefor wont use them..and the cost is going to be so much higher for it. 

 

You cant expect to let a pandemic just fly its course without economic effects, so as the serious owners say its going to cost us anyway, so shut down and do it seriously cause longrun that will cost less then leting this be a rollercoster of outbreaks where we shut down and let up shut down and let up to prevent health care from colapsing.

 

No its not the end of the world, but it may drive us into a resession if they dont start taking this serious, because a rollercoster model will be much more harmfull then a short hard shutdown.

[haycraftd]

I see your points, and they say hindsight is 20/20.

 

Social distancing might have worked to "flatten the curve"--I cannot say for sure.  What you are arguing for, though, is totalitarianism.  We've come very close to it so far, but we must do a cost/benefit analysis before we give up freedom.  And, with the numbers that are finally arriving, I can say fairly firmly that what we've done beyond responsible social distancing was unjustified.   In most of America and quite a bit of the UK, after that was done we never needed to "flatten the curve."  And, I even wonder if social distancing was worth it for most of us--I can live with a week of the flu.  And our economy can bounce along with it, too.

 

We must first ask ourselves how lethal this virus is.  And, unfortunately, we just know it's pretty mild.  We never really tried to find out.  One of the major problems we've had is that statistics mean different things in different places.  Let me give you an analogy--the "violent crime rate" in the UK is actually much higher than in the US.  But, comparing the numbers cannot be done, because "violent crime" is defined differently by each nation, and people acknowledge that.

 

We know many people who have died so far already had serious health issues.  So one of the major unanswered questions has been whether these people died from COVID 19, or did they just die with COVID 19?  Nations record death in different ways, and so we just don't know yet.     

 

Antibody tests in (I believe) California are showing that the disease was much more widespread than we've thought, so it is therefore much less lethal than we thought.

 

At the beginning of March, the hysteria was already being ginned up, but how much of that hysteria was being ginned up by medical professionals?  Very little, if any.  But, the MSM was anything but responsible.  You saw above how well I took apart the above article about the "youngest death in the UK."  That hasn't been rare.  Half-truths, misinformation, and disinformation is everywhere.  

 

I know I seem heartless, but sometimes you need to use your head instead.  The economic ramifications of a long shutdown are huge, with many small businesses quickly bankrupted.  People neatly impoverished at the drop of a hat, and with no idea whether they can come back again.   

 

All this causes health problems, too--it's just less visible.  Depression and suicides are going up quickly.  I've been able to live with it pretty decently, but we youngsters were already suffering from a "loneliness epidemic," and I'm getting fairly worried about some of my friends.  I'm not familiar with the UK's statistics, but obesity in America is becoming as big a health problem as tobacco was twenty/thirty years ago, and the lack of exercise just makes that worse.  Many people are more reluctant to call emergency services for fear that they'd be getting in the way--and maybe they are, maybe they're not, but that's no reason to hold back.

 

The economic shutdown--"If it just saves one life"--well, it's costing lives and livelihoods, too.

 

So, was it worth it? 

[Ryrin]

I agree with Liithia. 
 

Unlock too early and we’ll face a far longer term of lockdown and a much more dire economic crisis. 
 

Dead people don’t care about their economic status.

 

An overwhelmed healthcare system is a nightmare too.

 

Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes.

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/%3foutputType=amp

 

This disease is insane.

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Ryrin

[Liitha]

Oh I know you have to take them apart thats what I am trained to do, but you have to do it across the board and take all factors into account

 

I am not in this worried at all for myself as I due to this has my stuff in order, unlike the general trend in society. So I will manage either way, the reason I say something is because having all the base subjects of all fields to read and understand what all sides say and science I see how this hurt short term, but also see forward the likely scenarios. And sorry its a mild disease for many but there is a risk those who get it mildly doesnt get enough antiviral that they have efficient imunity long term (like with some vaccines you need several doses to get an effective vaccine).

 

The dead dont care either way as Ryrin say, its the serious ill who get healthy and those who wont get help in health care. And sorry we have plenty proof for how it looks when it get out of controll, look to italy as one of several nations, when we tested and sa the result of not slowing it down or stoping it..how many times we got to run nations into that situation, many without the economic systems to handle that half as well.

 

They will collapse and drag the world int rescesion, in europe many countries have better systems to deal with this then rest of the world. So yeah sure ok good for us that we will bounce back quicker and win some ground, but honestly having friends and family across the world I could care less about that, geting gain in a normal situation fine, but not because others crashed and strugle, thats why I am for breaking down.

 

And its not hindsigth only cause the experts said this from early on, they just wasnt listened too, its too easy then to blame hind sight and continue not listening when they speak. 

 

I sit in teams wich do risk analyzis and I often see I reach conclusion of ok we should do this cause thats likely outcome, get its too early and then when we get there your sudenly behind because you didnt prep. Or you could not have to deal with it. It can be hours to days or weeks before.

 

Its not about just saving one life, the politicans push that as its easier to pull the emotional card to get people aboard then try and explain long term economy to people, because unfortunately most people live and count on luck. State say dont use credit to go on vacation, yet waaaay to many do, dont loan above this or that..but I want and need a house that size cause I got  this or that so we just have too..

 

The problem is when stuff like recesion happen, if you listened you migth have managed to keep what you had instead of loosing all. People en mass are not economically responsible, sorry they are not, they only think short term need and think of what they can handle now, without planing for handle it long term.

 

And thats where we are now again, its short term vs long term, and I see where this is heading I got people who got it though too, but I realize its them that will have it 10 times worse in a year if we dont do this - not me.

[Millon]

Regardless of mine or anyone else's "informed opinion" I am still going to listen to the people that have dedicated their lives to protecting us from exactly what happens. If the CDC and WHO say, stay the eff home, these measures will work to curb this before things get worse, then I am going to do that. If I have cancer and my oncologist says "we'e going to do this thing to save your life" I am going to do that thing. Why? Because he's an expert. Oh, weell, second opinions are good things to have, so I am going to ask another Dr, he says, yes, these things will save you. I am going to do that thing. Two specialists, CDC, WHO, both saying the same thing. This has nothing at all to do with taking anyone's rights away. This is about a PANDEMIC. No one is prepared for this. AT all. That's what everyone is facing right now. Everything bad about the way we have been managing is finally coming to light. Inflammatory statements like "totalitarianism" is what spreads panic. Blowing things out of proportion and sharing inflammatory things out of fear and, we are all ignorant here, unless you're an immunologist, infectious disease specialist, or other related field,  you don't know what you're talking about. Instead of railing against the walls find ways to support UNTIL the CDC and WHO says we're good. When they say we're good and our gov'ts are still saying no, stay home THAT is totalitarian rule and goes against any common form of gov't in a free world. 

[haycraftd]

@Millon No need to get angry.  I just think differently, and for the last 6/7 years I've studied medieval propaganda to explore how natural disasters, (including epidemics), have been exploited for political gain.  I kind of know what I'm talking about. 

 

I can say that the news that's been spread is propaganda, starting with the word "pandemic."  Well, what is a "pandemic?"  Pan/demic means a disease that's affects a wide geographic area and infects many people.  Now, isn't that every flu season?  And coronaviruses in general have never been deadly.  They're the diseases that cause colds.  It was an unknown disease from China, and that was scary, but when it was labeled a "pandemic," it got ten times worse.

 

Now, who were the people who first called for the world to shut down?  Who wrote the headlines?  Not medical professionals.  Plenty of doctors were against it and still are.  The ones who were presenting the worst case scenarios were the ones who got the headlines, most people who disagreed were censored, and they still are.  Again, how the facts were presented was misleading.

 

Now, look at my first post when I disentangled that article.  That's far from the only one.  In the immediate days before the crisis came in March, I'd see headlines like "Don't Panic is Rotten Advice."  Then, the article itself would be a lot more down to earth--and sometimes about something entirely different--but, the headline was misleading, and most people only read headlines anyway.  

 

Lately, I read a headline on how some nurses were protesting protests against the lockdown in Denver.  Misleading.  The important part of that story is that there are protests, not that a few nurses are against it.

 

In other words--the way it has been reported is propaganda.

 

Now, the WHO was basing its response on data from Wuhan, China, which was misleading, (because it was propaganda), it was a scary surprise for Italy, then the "model" from Imperial College, London, by Niall Ferguson that drove at least Boris Johnson and Donald Trump to close down their economies was not peer-reviewed and totally wrong.  Hopefully, Ferguson's model was simply a mistake.  But, the deaths have been nowhere close to what his model predicted. 

 

I don't know all of the real facts, but I can say the data as presented was misleading and sometimes, (as in the model), false.

 

@Liitha The problem with this analysis is that once the disease got out of the Pandora's box of Wuhan, China, there is no way to put it back, and never was.  We can adapt, but we can't stop it.    

 

From numbers I've seen in at least America, though, COVID 19 has compared to an extra-bad flu season.  Most people are asymptomatic, and so plenty of us could have gotten it already and don't know it.  

 

And very few healthcare systems came close to being "overwhelmed." (Italy and New York among the exceptions).  We have mostly "flattened the curve," and so we can develop herd immunity, (the reason for flattening the curve given in March) without that fear.  

 

So, yes.   It's not the end of the world.

[Ryrin]

On 4/26/2020 at 12:02 PM, Millon said:

Regardless of mine or anyone else's "informed opinion" I am still going to listen to the people that have dedicated their lives to protecting us from exactly what happens. If the CDC and WHO say, stay the eff home, these measures will work to curb this before things get worse, then I am going to do that. If I have cancer and my oncologist says "we'e going to do this thing to save your life" I am going to do that thing. Why? Because he's an expert. Oh, weell, second opinions are good things to have, so I am going to ask another Dr, he says, yes, these things will save you. I am going to do that thing. Two specialists, CDC, WHO, both saying the same thing. This has nothing at all to do with taking anyone's rights away. This is about a PANDEMIC. No one is prepared for this. AT all. That's what everyone is facing right now. Everything bad about the way we have been managing is finally coming to light. Inflammatory statements like "totalitarianism" is what spreads panic. Blowing things out of proportion and sharing inflammatory things out of fear and, we are all ignorant here, unless you're an immunologist, infectious disease specialist, or other related field,  you don't know what you're talking about. Instead of railing against the walls find ways to support UNTIL the CDC and WHO says we're good. When they say we're good and our gov'ts are still saying no, stay home THAT is totalitarian rule and goes against any common form of gov't in a free world. 

Totally agree here, Millon. 

[Liitha]

Herd immunity is questionable still..great if that was posible, but likely with the reports coming in it will come at a price...so more like buying time to get a vaccine atm.

 

And I use the articles to get the info to find the actual studies. 

 

The science community needs to be able to do their work, and meanwhile we need to create the space for them to do so and listen. And if we succeed it will never get as bad as predictions and we avoid big flare ups with new places having overwhelmed systems. Because this isn't over yet. So I guess we will just have to agree to disagree, because until I see science articles that do not add up or make sence, I have no reason not to trust WHO. 

 

And with new threats its always best to act with care, no fault too WHO for this, but the fact is they had it right as far as I am concerned in reacting as they did and do, because we still are seeing a lot of potential complicating data surface. Not saying to stay in lock down for two years, but we have to adjust our lifestyles to help keep the disease enough in check, so that we can start to resume more activities in altered formats so society won't go deeper into financial issues then nesicary.

 

 

 

 

[haycraftd]

@LiithaFair enough.  Let's agree to disagree. 

[haycraftd]

And my point is not to  argue that everything is unnecessary, my point is that all the information the public has been given is misleading or wrong.  The model, we find out, is completely wrong.  More evidence Here.

 

And, as someone who has had a pretty horrific medical history and experienced a lot firsthand, I actually disagree with Millon.  I can say from harsh experience that doctors and other medical professionals can often be wrong.  What I'd suggest is to get as many opinions as possible and keep your head. 

 

And so basing your decision on one doctor--in this case, the analogies are the WHO and the model from the Imperial College in London--is wrong. 

Edited May 17, 2020 by haycraftd

[Dar'Jen Ab Owain]

And my focus while the chaos ensues around us is to keep as safe as possible.

 

Today was a store run. My son and I drove to store, wore gloves and masks, as did store attendants and majority I'd customers. Got food home. Wiped it down and put it away. Clothes are in the washing machine and my son and I are showered. My dad is cutting down the watermelon I was happy to find.

 

I'll do what I can to keep my family safe. And happy to find treats, like the watermelon.

 

I believe there's a lot of information, and a lot of opinions, often present as fact, rather than commentary. I think we should be informed and take appropriate measures to protect ourselves, families and each others.

 

I pray everyone is doing well. (Hugs DM family.)

[Ryrin]

5 hours ago, Liitha said:

Herd immunity is questionable still..great if that was posible, but likely with the reports coming in it will come at a price...so more like buying time to get a vaccine atm.

 

And I use the articles to get the info to find the actual studies. 

 

The science community needs to be able to do their work, and meanwhile we need to create the space for them to do so and listen. And if we succeed it will never get as bad as predictions and we avoid big flare ups with new places having overwhelmed systems. Because this isn't over yet. So I guess we will just have to agree to disagree, because until I see science articles that do not add up or make sence, I have no reason not to trust WHO. 

 

And with new threats its always best to act with care, no fault too WHO for this, but the fact is they had it right as far as I am concerned in reacting as they did and do, because we still are seeing a lot of potential complicating data surface. Not saying to stay in lock down for two years, but we have to adjust our lifestyles to help keep the disease enough in check, so that we can start to resume more activities in altered formats so society won't go deeper into financial issues then nesicary.

 

 

 

 

??????

[Arie]

I tend to avoid these like the plague because information and opinion are two different things and both are skewed in the media. 

 

My "opinion" falls simply on the line of "Herd Immunity" does not exist in light of how many times this virus has evolved over the course of where it's spread and who it affects. "Flattening the curve" is not because people are asymptomatic, it merely keeps the hospital from being overloaded by those  who do show symptoms at a larger rate. (Aka: people that get sick by it get it over time instead of all in a short period of time). That's not herd immunity, it doesn't exist in this case.

 

I have family in the hospital because they thought 'it was just a bad flu'. I have friends with family in graves that they can't visit. My grandfather is dying in a old-folks home (not from this) but we can't say goodbye because if anyone who is asymptomatic enters and gets just one person who isn't, that's the end of a home of more than 200 aging veterans.

 

So yeah, I will force my children to wear masks when we go out and to wash our hands. I will slowly allow them to play with neighborhood friends when we feel it's safe to. My family is self-isolating until appropriate testing and vaccines are available because the only way to ACTUALLY curb any of this is with more information as to where it actually is. That isn't based on news or what a doctor says, but because I feel that is the only answer that will actually have an impact in changing the tide in what's happening.

[Cross]

and its only reasonable. i don't understand why some people have taken issue with the simple idea of protecting themselves and others. whether or not you believe the studies, statistics, news or government this is a pandemic, it can be deadly to a great number of people and leaves those who've had it, often times scarred internally. so a mask, some distance and good hygiene to me sound like an easy no brainer

[Arie]

Agreed. ? The Yellow in me also feels that it's our way of helping care for the world, because we don't know if we are carriers are not. It's an annoyance, but not the end of the world. ?

[Ryrin]

I’m so concerned about hospitals being overloaded because of this strange disease. We saw the horrors in Italy and New York.

 

It appears that you can get Covid-19 more than once if you manage to live through it the first time.

 

Eight sailors from USS Theodore Roosevelt who previously had coronavirus test positive again.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/16/politics/uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-coronavirus/index.html

 

On top of that children are affected in strange ways.

 

Rare, COVID-Related Inflammatory Disease Affecting Children

 

Children seem to have mostly been spared from serious COVID-19 complications. But now, new reports suggest that a rare and potentially fatal inflammatory disease linked to the novel coronavirus is afflicting a small number of kids.

 

Cases of what’s being called pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome (PMIS) have been reported in parts of the U.S. and Europe, with some children experiencing organ failure. At least three deaths have been reported in New York.

 

Experts suspect that in children with PMIS, the virus may trigger the immune system to overreact and cause widespread inflammation throughout the body.

 

https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/rounds/rare-covid-related-inflammatory-disease-affecting-children

 

 

[Lavandula]

7 hours ago, Arie said:

I tend to avoid these like the plague because information and opinion are two different things and both are skewed in the media. 

 

My "opinion" falls simply on the line of "Herd Immunity" does not exist in light of how many times this virus has evolved over the course of where it's spread and who it affects. "Flattening the curve" is not because people are asymptomatic, it merely keeps the hospital from being overloaded by those  who do show symptoms at a larger rate. (Aka: people that get sick by it get it over time instead of all in a short period of time). That's not herd immunity, it doesn't exist in this case.

 

I have family in the hospital because they thought 'it was just a bad flu'. I have friends with family in graves that they can't visit. My grandfather is dying in a old-folks home (not from this) but we can't say goodbye because if anyone who is asymptomatic enters and gets just one person who isn't, that's the end of a home of more than 200 aging veterans.

 

So yeah, I will force my children to wear masks when we go out and to wash our hands. I will slowly allow them to play with neighborhood friends when we feel it's safe to. My family is self-isolating until appropriate testing and vaccines are available because the only way to ACTUALLY curb any of this is with more information as to where it actually is. That isn't based on news or what a doctor says, but because I feel that is the only answer that will actually have an impact in changing the tide in what's happening.

I wasn't going to meddle into these corona threads either, but I am SO proud to call you my mentor!!!!! Stay safe, and stay your own yellow self, whatever the corona throws at you?

 

And to all of you, THANK YOU for restoring my faith in humanity! 

I had to stop reading the news, cause I just felt so ashamed to call myself a human.. Take care of eachother and your loved ones, and keep being your selfless, lovely selves? 

[Arie]

Lava, :hug:

Best thing I found throughout this? Some Good News (SGN) on youtube and Animal Crossing.

.... so much animal crossing.

[Lavandula]

I might check the good news out, lol? awww AC sounds so peaceful and cosy? 

[Taymist]

The highest annual death rate in the UK from flu related illnesses over the last 5 flu seasons stands about 28 thousand. The average over that whole period is roughly 17 thousand per annum. 

 

We're currently over 44 thousand deaths, and still rising, from coronavirus. After only 4-5 months of the year. It is not comparable to an extra bad flu season by any stretch of the imagination.

 

And from the various sources I can find regarding the US, the same is true there. The MD of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease told Congress that the US annual mortality rate from flu is only about 0.1% and that coronavirus is 10 times more lethal.

 

The most abhorrent attitude throughout this entire episode for me, so far, both from the general public and the media/Government, has been this dismissal of anyone in so-called" high risk groups". Making out as though they are acceptable collateral damage and "just to be expected/accepted". This back slapping, "I'm alright, Jack", approach from anyone not in those groups is simply sickening. As always money/greed/economic concerns are used as a justification to ignore simple common sense. Elgee is absolutely on the nail with the WoT/GoT analogy. People in power or positions of privilege will always do whatever it takes to safeguard themselves first and foremost and screw the rest of us.

 

I'm completely with Liitha on this one and thank heavens we have a First Minister who uses her head and doesn't just follow the UK Government like a sheep. 

[Liitha]

Its also who are in the at risk group...well men in their so called best age as they probably would define it..they just dont seem to let that sink in. It is in many cases those objecting the most we seek to protect..

 

At risk groups arent set in stone they alternate with the diseases, and the at risk groups are larger for this then in general I would say is my feel based on what I seen, though there arent many reports on it and I guess its hard cause they seem to have new info all the time so changes from week too week what they can agree on.

[Millon]

On 5/18/2020 at 1:18 PM, Arie said:

Lava, :hug:

Best thing I found throughout this? Some Good News (SGN) on youtube and Animal Crossing.

.... so much animal crossing.

SGN IS A GOD SEND! That dude has become my new hero. It's fantastic. 

 

Good to see you again, Arie. 

[Lavandula]

I have not been able to check it out yet but am going right now (if nothing else comes up in the next few seconds, sigh?)

Really good to see you again mills, hope everything is ok with you and the kiddo! *hugs*