Tarmon Gaidon [Advanced Mafia] Game Over

[Wildfire Sedai]

Well, its time for bed....goodnight.

[Ironeyes]

Lol I think that's the first time since JS that someone has brought up Zander's posting limit.

 

Although I admit I haven't ever played a game with Scum!Wifi, she still seems town to me so far. Her posts are very similar in style and content to Demons Cove, where she was town. And I hear from others that she was a lot more subtle and consistent than normal in her last scum game. So sorry, Zander, I'm not tinfoiling with you this time. 

[Darthe]

Guys, ive had a rough time in school here lately and tbh AM just not up to posting out the wazoo, but I feel responsible for giving my reads and.thoughts etc. Forive me if im not so interactive or present, but let me drop a reads list with some reasons real quick.

[Tiinker]

Man, today has been hectic and tomorrow will be too likely. I'll try get it together and do catch up tomorrow evening or Monday.

[Shad_]

 

 

I was YOLOing WiFi Town but now I think I want her to get clearer. I feel like I can see reasons for suspicions and that we've mindmelded a lot but I'm not sure if that's just because she posts every possible thought. Only thing I remember reading out of kilter ITT of the top of my head was the AtE at Zander early on. It felt extreme. Her progression on Hellian/John Snow in a reads list posted in the Stedding has her forgetting Hellian was scum and calling Snow both scum and town.

 

"Extreme" "bizarre" "wtf did that just happen?" is kind of villagery for her.  I liked the AtE.  As a wolf she was able, with some coaching, to fake some weird behavior, like not voting the counterwagon when she was lead train (this was planned and used to justify the CFD on Dice), but all-in-all her scum game is a lot more straight-forward, consistent, maybe more logical even.  I'd encourage people to look at BM and compare, keeping in mind that she subbed in and improved as the game went on.

 

Ok ta. If you can link to that and whatever game you were referencing WolfKat in for comparison I'll love you forever/look at then through the day tomorrow.

 

Bed time now.

 

For Wifi: BM (subbed in D2, game just ended a week ago) and Beyond the Wall (there was no village and there was reason to believe this from the start) were her only two non-town games.

 

For Kat: Eldrick's game she was wolf. The game was explicitly multiball so she had scum to hunt. She still acted ~goofy. Also see her awkwardness surrounding treatment of her peeks as cop D1 and D2 in the BM game linked above

[Shad_]

@Kat - where are you??

Kat doesn't play on weekends.

 

Wolves like to exploit this in hammer games to lynch her on weekends, actually.

[Shad_]

 

 

So here's my state of mind right now

 

If wolves sent a rep to the Stedding, one of ZanCass, Dice, Wifi, or Believer is scum.

 

I was dead convinced last night that ZanCass Dice and Wifi were all town, thought the wolf had to be Nolder or Believer.

 

Nolder's a dead villager. Does Believer make any sense considering he was a wagon with Snow and Hellian?

 

It would basically require that we had 3 competing wolf trains on D1.

 

Seems like a stretch.

 

Any of ZC/Dice/Wifi being wolf seems like a stretch.

 

Wolves not sending a rep to the Stedding seems like a stretch.

 

Conclusion: :???:

 

Believer is the wolf and here is why:

 

As I said in the QT, I'll be going to T'A'R on the next night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Faction kill - strongman - if you submit the faction kill within Tel'Aran'Rhiod and on somebody else within Tel'Aran'Rhiod the kill can not be blocked by protective roles or be roleblocked. You can not submit a strongman kill 2 nights running

 

 

 

 

 

 

actually that was copied from the D1 ending...I don't know why it says Believer on it....DM being weird

 

 

 

Moghedien

 

In Tel'Aran'Rhiod you may investigate one player and learn their role (role cop)

 

 

So here are my general points:

 

1. All night actions must be submitted from TR, town or scum

2. That the mafia had constraints on how many times they could submit a NK..." You cannot submit a NK 2 nights running" meaning each mafia player, therefore

3. They decided on a schedule of when each one is to submit a NK. (THIS IS PURE CONJECTURE.  I have no idea if this was done or not.  I am just trying to think outside the box)

 

Here are my points as to why I believe that believer is wolf:

 

1. He wants to go to TR for N2 - why?? because its his turn for a night kill.  Did we get seriously lucky enough that the other only surviving wolf (as yet tbd is the one who submitted the NK last night, so can't tonight and that's why believer wants to go to TR??

2. He INSISTED that there was a wolf in the stedding.  Insisted...NO way around it.  Could it have been TMI?  Was he talking about himself? sowing confusion?  I mean seriously let's look at the people in the stedding: ME: I'm town all the way, so is zass/dice/nolder/possibly shad....hmmm so that leaves believer...whattaya know....

3. His insistence that dice "stole" his idea....give me a fricken break...it was more like agreeing with and adding on to not stealing WIFOM totally unrelated to the game at large

 

 

This is inaccurate in so far as Hellian's role in no way suggests that she couldn't submit the kill every night. It just could only be strongman on a town visitor to Tel every other night.

 

However, this is another case of pretty natural Wifi thinking. It's absolutely something she could believe as a villager.

 

What you have to ask yourself irt her slot is how effectively BM taught her to fake her town style of arguments. How well can she dig into her own head and come up with something that would make sense for town!her to say?

 

Let's look at her scum cases in BM when she was a wolf.

 

scummate Darthe: read scum for flipflopping on his reads a lot, pushing town!Cory, and being rude

 

town Alanna: read scum for having a negative attitude towards the game

 

scummate NotBob: read scum because he tried to make the town think he was cop by voting Wifi without explanation as soon as the day started, allowed other players to believe this and vote her though she is TOWN!, waits until asked point blank to deny that it's a peek

 

later,

 

town Pral: read scum because he accused Wifi of distancing from Darthe when she had been reading Darthe town all game and Pral was the one who reversed his read, and because he is calling Sooh a wolf when most players had been calling her town.

 

The last one is arguably the most believable argument from her--in so far as you might be able to see town!Wifi go "How can I be distancing when I've been saying it all game, and how can Sooh be scum when people are calling her town???"

 

But still it's all pretty shallow. There was very little indication of the atypical and sometimes rather complex sort of problem solving that she engages in as a villager.

 

Her reason for thinking Believer is a wolf in the above post is, in the very least, far more thoughtful and unique than anything she's accomplished as a wolf in previous games.

[Shad_]

Oh god I should be going to bed in like 10 minutes and I'm on the top of p73 -_-

[Shad_]

*nodnod*

 

I'm honestly tempted to just go ahead and vote Darthe.  His response here to get super aggressive and name calling is unlike his town play.

 

Can you elaborate on your thoughts here?  Like the significance of context etc.  Because I think we've all seen Darthe be aggressive and call people names.

[Shad_]

Kat posted like twice.  She said she didn't pick TAR, that she picked the stedding and ended up in TAR anyways

 

Could explain why it feels like there was no wolf in the Stedding lol

[Darthe]

Again, gonna clarify that these are off the cuff

 

1. Tiinker town prob, like his train if though, can follow, good presence

2. Nolder dead

3. Kat I think others have made good points om her but I habitually and accidentally skim her so ive little to add of my own beyond that id kill her over me

4. Dice really clean game frm him, responded well to me early on

5. WiFi looks like wifi. I have no idea, but maybe clean

6. Hallia clean, a bit overly aggressive for what I think of as town hally, solid claim though

7. John Snow dead

8. Darthe me

9. Zander/Cass love this slot, tinfoils only and.theyre rare

10. Pral playing solid, louder than old laya

11. Hellian dead

12. Believer why didnt hellian execute you ywsterday? Combined with what ive found to be pretty manipulative play, specifically the rigidity of forcing people to read him (her?) Logically and attempts to refute evrything. It looks defensive and twisty, to be brief

13. Ironeyes liled him from the beginning, I think he has awesome presence and I can follow his thoughts

14. Shad basically the same said above about marsh, sans a bit of tinfoil here as well but thats mostly cleared up at this point

[Shad_]

 

Kat posted like twice.  She said she didn't pick TAR, that she picked the stedding and ended up in TAR anyways

 

Then Kat's a Wolf.

 

 

<3

[Shad_]

Re Darthe: looked into "responded well to me early on" about Dice because you'd said you wanted to lynch him, your progression here does check out so that's good
 

The Believer not being Executed, I pointed out before that I'm pretty sure it took 4 to execute.  I can be derp at math sometimes but I don't believe anyone has refuted this.  Believer was never above 3 votes and one was a confirmed wolf.  So basically town!Believer doesn't get Executed here unless Hellian or some other wolf jumps on him to seal the deal--an act which would be pretty damning for the wolf doing the dirty work.  Hellian's account hasn't even been active since 10:49 am EST on the day of the lynch, and while wolves certainly do watch threads while logged out (unless she found out she was lynched in QT she surely has been here at least once since then) there is indication that she was fairly disinterested in this game and might have simply not shown up.

 

In short, I don't think that Believer not getting executed looks bad for him.

[Shad_]

Fair, but to say that Believer is somehow less likely to be scum because our chances of getting three wolves on one day is small basically makes us prey to the Gambler's Fallacy. 

Now I do see your point about him and JS going at each other too hard from the start. That looks fishy now that I reread it.

It's more than that. It means that scum either intentionally hard bussed or were completely shut down in their attempts to string up a villager. Obviously Snow tried to get you lynched and failed, and obviously you are almost never a wolf in this game, and obviously Hellian didn't do jack besides voting Zander

 

but it's not just a straight 4/14 odds.  Wolves had to not try or else hopelessly fail at creating a town counterwagon in order for 3/3 to happen here.

[Shad_]

[v] unvote [/v]

 

[v] Believer [/v]

 

You really don't remember when this exact conversation happened in Disney? 

[Shad_]

I mean it's an insane claim and  I'd just as soon believe it's a running hoax to benefit him in his first scum rand against players like us who can't confirm otherwise, but he has said this as a confirmed villager before.

[Shad_]

ZanderGOAT. I don't hate this given the reasons above. You know he said exactly the same thing in the previous game and was Town though? I'll leave it up to you or we can chat about it later.

Well, half of your slot thinks outside of the last 5 seconds.

[Zander?]

You know I was joking right?

[Shad_]

I want to listen as to why Shad is not confident that kat is wolf

 

That sounds very different when you don't quote my whole post.  I wasn't confident that Hellian was a wolf.  I lynch a lot of people who I'm not confident are wolves, because when in doubt I lynch the person who has given me the least reason to believe they are villagers.  When I am confident that a player is a wolf, you will know it.  Zander and AJ can attest to this.

 

Of the players on the roster, I have the least reason to believe that Kat is a villager.

 

Counterpoints?  From ISOing a lot of her games, I have thoughts on how she will react to this pressure as town vs as scum.  That won't be put to the test until she starts posting again.

 

Her "dude if I was a wolf I would have done it this other way" post is something I've seen her do as a villager.  A trifle thing, but a thing.

 

There was something else I noticed an absence of in her scum game that has not been missing here, and frankly I don't want to say what it is because it's stupidly easy to fake and if she does happen to be town I want that to remain a little meta secret of mine.

 

If she doesn't show back up, I am quite keen on lynching her.  If she shows back up with the scum signs I'm looking for and I properly detect them, I'll be pretty vocal about lynching her.  If she shows back up with something else, /shrug, still pretty decent chance I lynch her, but I'm going to use every bit of information I can accumulate.

[Shad_]

You know I was joking right?

 

I got to where you said you'd been bored, yeah.

 

Didn't read like a joke in the moment, unless I misunderstand your jokes a lot.  When something pings you you have a habit of diving all over it initially whatever your previous thoughts have been.

[Zander?]

Again, gonna clarify that these are off the cuff

 

1. Tiinker town prob, like his train if though, can follow, good presence

2. Nolder dead

3. Kat I think others have made good points om her but I habitually and accidentally skim her so ive little to add of my own beyond that id kill her over me

4. Dice really clean game frm him, responded well to me early on

5. WiFi looks like wifi. I have no idea, but maybe clean

6. Hallia clean, a bit overly aggressive for what I think of as town hally, solid claim though

7. John Snow dead

8. Darthe me

9. Zander/Cass love this slot, tinfoils only and.theyre rare

10. Pral playing solid, louder than old laya

11. Hellian dead

12. Believer why didnt hellian execute you ywsterday? Combined with what ive found to be pretty manipulative play, specifically the rigidity of forcing people to read him (her?) Logically and attempts to refute evrything. It looks defensive and twisty, to be brief

13. Ironeyes liled him from the beginning, I think he has awesome presence and I can follow his thoughts

14. Shad basically the same said above about marsh, sans a bit of tinfoil here as well but thats mostly cleared up at this point

 

Really like you to look into Kat if you can, shes the lynch today.

 

Id like to get your thoughts on her please.

 

 

 

Kat posted like twice.  She said she didn't pick TAR, that she picked the stedding and ended up in TAR anyways

 

Then Kat's a Wolf.

 

 

<3

 

 

<3 <3 <3

[Shad_]

ftr Z I think I would tinfoil on you periodically if Cass wasn't villagery AF

[Zander?]

ftr Z I think I would tinfoil on you periodically if Cass wasn't villagery AF

 

Its ok, i feel the same way except you dont have your own CassGOATENFPMUSICTWIN!!!!!

[Shad_]

Kat pushing a lynch on a pretty much an inactive Pral atp over Hellion, who she thinks is Scummy.

 

I also will have to double check but I dont think she mentions him previously to me calling him out but Ill have to confirm this.

 

Darthe wants to lynch Dice over Scum for #lolderfraisins???

 

I feel pretty strongly there is at least one Wolf in this whole exchange and its not me or Iron.

Honestly shading Pral for "only having 8 posts" mid-D1 is suspicious in its own right. It's Pral ffs.

 

Red: Darthe followed through on his Dice reason when asked and it wasn't bad.  But it's the "coincidences" like this that I pointed out in QT that have me pretty leery of him in the first place.

[dicetosser1]

 

 

 

Well the cop check is plausible, night kill is unlikely. If I were scum and you were town, I'd leave you around cause you're too easy of a mislynch. 

 

Course if you want blue on white, we could lynch you...

Lynching me doesn't benefit town, since I know my alignment.

 

Wasting a scum NK on me benefits town since most are determined that I have to be scum and will never trust me anyways. Cop checking me is also beneficial since it will confirm me and also keep me alive.

 

Just ugh. Thoughts on this, people?

 

 

 

the thing that stood out to me was the "also keep me alive" bit.

 

say he gets copped

 

cops not going to claim until they really have to most likely. so we arent going to know hes cleared unless the cops me or zander and we suddenly back right off believer.

 

which means theres only 3 reasons he might not die

 

1  hes scum

 

2 hes a potential mislynch

 

3  they have bigger fish to kill

 

 

if he DOES get cop cleared then theres a bigger target on his back    after the cop     cause hes then confirmed town.

 

 

 

 

 

OK So just kinda want everyone to follow along here.

 

This is going on after I start pushing towards a Hellian lynch.

 

 

 

 

Kat pushing a lynch on a pretty much an inactive Pral atp over Hellion, who she thinks is Scummy.

 

I also will have to double check but I dont think she mentions him previously to me calling him out but Ill have to confirm this.

 

Darthe wants to lynch Dice over Scum for #lolderfraisins???

 

I feel pretty strongly there is at least one Wolf in this whole exchange and its not me or Iron.

 

re Darthe

 

ik know shads commented   but i think he was trying to push my buttons  cause once i responded to him he was happy and said i looked good

 

 

 

 

 

Kat posted like twice.  She said she didn't pick TAR, that she picked the stedding and ended up in TAR anyways

 

Could explain why it feels like there was no wolf in the Stedding lol

 

 

I now KNOW there was a wolf there.

 

Turns out that believers theory about cross qt kills is correct.

 

problem is  Im not scum  Nolder wasnt scum  i do not believe its zander  and strongly doubt its wifi

 

So guess who my POE is?

 

Believer and you