Ghostbusters Mafia - Game Over - Mafia Wins!

[alannalynn]

My brain hurts and I'm only 3 pages into Shad's ISO. Probably only do up through page 5 tonight bc it's getting late and I'm tired.

[Sooh]

I have chosen. Whether it was wisely or not we shall see.

 

Fingers crossed everyone!

[alannalynn]

Sooh flipped a coin. I'll bet. RNG'd it.

[alannalynn]

SHAD ISO Part 1

 

  Reveal hidden contents

--> I'm ignoring some communication/reads on conf players for simplicity, so if you notice those are absent, that's why.

Page 1
- probably his first 10-12 posts are fluff and have nothing to do with the game, gives some meta on Zander,
- AtBFG post re: Zander is null
- At Eld: Eldrick had voted Shad because he didn't trust him due to past mistakes, Shad asks if he's superstitious as a joke. States that he heavily pocketed Eld in GnD and the distrust is null. (Link to last post in the string) Nothing really in this exchange that I can say sways either way for Eldrick, I like that Lenlo questioned it even though he wasn't caught up (post 296) Also, #182 relates to this to, it's a post by Turin that's turning Eldrick's strange voting thing around because he's treating Shad and Dice differently atp: Eld or Turin could be maf here
- Asks if Turin touched base on Zander being scum since he put him in the YOLO scum list: "what made you think he and Dice might be w/w?" Either Shad picked up on hints here for neighbors or Turin is the mafia neighbor and Shad is leading him to it. Not going to make assumptions, this could be a totally null post, but that he singles out Zander is odd. **Reading back on this again: ELDRICK states that he already touched base on Dice and Zander, Turin says Tsuki is the most YOLO of the three, but then Shad focuses in on Zander without going back to look. So that does kind of look awkard there.

Page 2
- Defends Eldrick: says he's town based on him discrediting a push by Tsuki
- Pushes Tsuki pretty early
- He asks a lot of questions I think that's another thing that pinged me even though I didn't mention it: Shad is always up for offering opinions and conclusions, not so much purely asking questions in a BFG manner. I expect that from BFG, not from Shad
- Link Interaction with Zander about a post from Turin re: if Turin was implying Z calling himself town was townie or something. Shad specifically wnats Turin to explain what he meant.
- Starts casing Tsuki, bothered by Dice's easy town read of Z but thinks Dice's push on Turin was townie, "if not particularly moving"; a little straight up defense of Dice irt Zander, which makes Z look bad; he's particularly snippy towards Zander which is unusual- and is suggesting Zander go look at Dice's stuff on Turin himself, but he's already painting Z in a bad light compared to Turin.
- Link: Going back to what was mentioned earlier irt Turin leaving out reasoning on Zander, still feels like Shad is leading him to it. I'm trying to figure out how natural is was for Shad to bring up Zander or if it was even necessary. The answer is no. It doesn't come of natural at all, makes Turin look bad here.

Page 3
- Shad's immediate response to Turin claiming Neighbor. He brings up good points here asking about Zander and his behavior in QT.
- Null post at Niniel, another null post, focusing in on Zander as most were, again Shad pinging for leading Zander on and just letting him sink himself; I think Shad's characterization of Zander was wrong. Meh, what's did is done, I'll know better in the future

Page 4

  On 4/9/2016 at 5:13 AM, Shad_ said:

I need to get to sleep. GTH town atp is Tsuki Eldrick Hallia Laine, kind of want to include Rey on that list too.

I'll chew on the Turin/Zander/Dice situation.

First of all, doesn't mention Niniel, Lenlo, BFG. Not a big deal but I think they were all kinda active at that point, maybe BFG a little less so. But there's no reason he shouldn't have provided a read on them.

Secondly, the Turin/Zander/Dice thing. He led Turin the revealing the Zander QT thing and has done nothing but attack Zander and question him and didn't even LOOK at Turin, though tbh Turin was in a good spot at this point. Dice he had had a town read on and I hadn't seen any progression besides what was happening in thread with Turin/Dice and the TMI stuff. Meh.

- A lot of this page was directed at Zander
- Disagrees with BFG on Z meta irt length of joke phase as v/w but doesn't want to go check and see if he's right even though he asked the question in the first place. Seems an odd thing to ask of a teammate and then brush off, so +1 for BFG/Nikon. Eventually decides Z doesn't have a tell on fluff at the start of game.
- Found a good BFG nugget here where she's supporting Zander for the out of thread content being the basis for Turin calling Zander mafia and Shad's response is basically "why is this any less significant". It can't be proven. This case was built on hearsay and yet everyone, including Shad went to Turin's side because he claimed first. I would expect more sound reasoning from Shad (shrug)
- @Turin Shad was in THREE game D1, might be why I was giving him leniency. Forgot he was in Eldrick's game too.
- Bottom of page states that Eldrick has been villagery this game and he'll hard defend if he has to. Town spew? (thumbsup)

Page 5
- Shad's "why Turin is town regardless"
- Scum doesn't say this to a teammate: BFG
- More Turin support, yet Shad says he's leaning v/v on Turin/Zander. His thread pushes didn't indicate that to me. Votes RTE, following Zander's lead to cfd basically, I forget how TOWNIE Shad can be sometimes as scum danggit,

  On 4/12/2016 at 3:24 PM, Shad_ said:

Tsuki*- Cop

Turin*- Neighbor

Eldrick- Peeked Town
Laine- Town

Zander- Dead Town
Hallia- Dead DOC Town
Reyoru- Dead Gov Town
Lenlo/SOOH- jailkeeper

Dice- Dead Stump- Town
Niniel
BFG/Nikon - (he's not treating her like a teammate thus far)

RTE- Dead Symp- MAFIA
 

^Trimmed this down a little bit. There was a special note about Lenlo/Sooh scooting under the radar or something and how that's a good thing. Besides that, I added in current alignments and roles to his list

 

1. The group above all the dead towns. At least one of those is scum. I'm more likely to believe we have a cop and a peeked town than I am to believe that BOTH neighbors were town. And Shad certainly treated Turin like he could be a teammate and it was awful.

2. At the bottom: Niniel and Nikon. I would vote Niniel over Nikon every time. Like I put in there, Shad was treating BFG like she was town. And even though Nikon hasn't caught up, he's REALLY trying right now. Niniel on the other hand had limited interaction with Shad, there were a lot of null posts and he doesn't try to read her or even provide a read on her in his first reads list which is strange because he had some kind of read on MOST everyone else who was heavily involved in thread at the time. Odd because Niniel was pretty consistently in thread and they communicated. Besides that, Niniel has fallen off a bit since early game and that's sus by itself, bomb or not.

3. Remaining scum is Turin/Niniel, that's game solve. If for some reason it's NOT, I would move into Sooh, Tsuki, then Eldrick in that order, but it should never come to that.
 

 

 

Page 6: Stopping at the top of this page of Shad ISO. Just can't do anymore tonight and it's 1am and I've been up WAY too long.

[alannalynn]

Just realized I didn't fill in all the roles up there. Ugh. Whatever, y'all get the point.

[alannalynn]

Okay I'm getting ready for bed. Any questions in the next 10 minutes will be answered and that's it.

[Eldrick4221]

  On 4/28/2016 at 5:04 AM, alannalynn said:

Sooh flipped a coin. I'll bet. RNG'd it.

I hope it was a lucky coin.

[alannalynn]

Turin can i persuade you that Turin is scum for tomorrow?

[alannalynn]

........*ELDRICK lol

[alannalynn]

I can't function anymore. Good night probably

[Eldrick4221]

I want you to try. Actually I want dice to, but your input is also appreciated.

 

More detailed post in a few.

[alannalynn]

K. I'll be working on that. I started to try in my Shad ISO.

 

Turin is def in the POE, btw. He's getting budged out of town.... and the nature of neighbors is that one of them could be scum. I think it's highly likely at this point that Turin is.

[alannalynn]

I'm just conflicted, I don't want to be wrong. But I also strongly gut feel that this is the case. Just gotta find the proof to back it up I guess.

[alannalynn]

Eldrick who exactly if your POE? If you're already working on a post that's fine, I might just stick around on my phone for a few and read up a bit.

 

sorry for all the posts back to back, I can't seem to get my thoughts out concisely.

[Eldrick4221]

Ok Dice. @ of the 3 people you have in your WTL I have as town. We can't both be right, so I want to discuss them with you so I can understand your POV.

 

Reasons Turin is town.

 

Shad's interactions with him spew him town IMO

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Zander couldn't remember Dice's case on Turin. Shad helped him out by pointing out that he could Ctrl+f dice's ISO to look for "Turin". Doesn't seem like something scum would do to help incriminate a teammate, so this looks good for Turin. Null for Dice.

 

 

Shad agrees that Zander and Turin should be the focus. If they are both town, tis looks like a great way to start setting up a mislynch by promoting this idea.

 

Shad's efforts regarding the Zander/Turin QT discussion feel like someone trying to figure out what the truth is, not someone that already knows. For that to be the case, either Scum!Turin didn't divulge his information on the mafia QT (unlikely), or Turin is town.

 

#1009 Reading this from mafia POV, it sounds like Shad was planning on keeping Turin alive to LYLO to make him suspicious for still being alive.

 

His case on Zander felt genuine.

 

He isn't a Ghostbuster. (Weakest reason of the bunch. This obviously isn't confirmed. Neither is that all mafia are ghostbusters, but it's still there)

 

Null reasons for Turin

 

He is promoting the idea that Tsuki is Naive. This idea has merit. It fits the theme of the movie. It could easily be wrong, and his doing so is discrediting Tsuki's reads, but I could also be right. He isn't scum for speculating this.

 

He was twisting Laine's reason to not vote you. This could be a scum move to try to get a mislynch going, or it could just be town stuck in a tunnel.

 

Reasons to suspect Turin

 

His only reason to continue suspecting me is my "connection to Shad". He refuses to explain why else he has a scum read on me.

 

In spite of said read, he isn't pushing for my lynch.

[Eldrick4221]

  On 4/28/2016 at 5:55 AM, alannalynn said:

Eldrick who exactly if your POE? If you're already working on a post that's fine, I might just stick around on my phone for a few and read up a bit.

 

sorry for all the posts back to back, I can't seem to get my thoughts out concisely.

 

Only person I'm sure of being town is Tsuki

 

I believe Sooh is too.

 

Which means the rest of you guys have the scum hiding there somewhere.

 

I have reason to believe You, Turin, and Niniel are town, but I cant be right about all of those.

 

As of RIGHT NOW, my WTL is Nikon

[Eldrick4221]

Reasons Niniel is town

 

She put in a lot of effort trying to solve the game. She gave detailed ISOs about a bunch of people. She has been actively trying to solve.

 

Her claim wasn't under pressure, and was controversial by nature. The way she did it feels genuine, and I believe it's true.

 

Reasons to suspect Niniel

 

Her fishing for Laine's role. It's been bugging me today how much she went into figuring out what Laine claimed, if anything.

[Eldrick4221]

Now that I think about it, role fishing goes on Turin's list too.

[Eldrick4221]

I hate rereads. I have no motivation to do so :/

 

But I know I should.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Good morning :)

[Eldrick4221]

Morning :)

[Turin Turambar]

Eldrick, 

 

I agree with your interpretation of Shad's spewing me town. It really is because I am town. Look and see who is continuing that ploy. I think it is a telling point.

 

People that I feel have done this:

Alanna. 

Sooh. TBH I think Sooh is pretty much mechanically clear. I would have to take a real deep look to see if I am missing something. 

Dice. He is confirmed stumpy town. 

 

 

 

 

Day 5 will likely be lylo however unless Sooh guesses right and picks the mafia that is making the kill. Therefore we need to get this right.

 

Where I am right now.

 

Turin - Town Neighbor. PM says so and I think that my game has been very town. Asking questions. trying to figure things out. etc...

 

Tsuki - Town Cop. Only way that this is fake is if mafia has an oracle and they asked if there was an actual cop. Otherwise risk too high. I don't think that happened. Therefore he is TOWN. maybe naive but definitely town.

 

Sooh - Town Jailkeeper. I think that the evidence bears out her claim. I thought of something that might have been an additional benefit. It is possible that one of the actions available to mafia was a recruit on the symp. RTE being jailed would have caused their recruit to fail. If I know Ithi then the message they received would have been that " your recruit action was unsuccessful" but without any reason. It could have led them to believe that RTE wasn't the symp which is why they were willing to vote him again on D2. Not sure if that makes sense tho. I will try to think about this. But I am pretty sure that Sooh is town.

 

Eldrick -  Town Vanilla. That post regarding me is swaying me to think that he is town. My reason is that I agree that Shad was trying to set me up for a late mislynch. In fact that was one of the things that bugged me the most and led me to push him hard. I don't see Eldrick doing a 180 from the plan especially when it is starting to work.

 

 Tyat leaves 

 

Niniel: I have read her mostly town. I think I need to go thru her posts again. Maybe today, maybe tomorrow.

Alanna:  I still am not convinced that she is town. She seems to be continuing the Shad late mislynch thing. I also think that if she thought Dice was town that she should have been looking for an alternative. It seemed more like she was more interested in being able to say that she was right about Dice and use that to push me. I definitely need to go thru Shad and look for how they interacted. 

Nikon: Still not caught up I guess. Didn't even show for EoD yesterday. I hate the idea of using PoE as a lylo vote. But he is probably the most likely of the three now that I am more convinced that Eldrick is town.

 

 

It is going to be telling to see who if anyone dies tonight. Can mafia just kill Niniel and we can see if she was a bomb??? Thanks. 

[Turin Turambar]

  On 4/28/2016 at 5:27 AM, alannalynn said:

SHAD ISO Part 1

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

--> I'm ignoring some communication/reads on conf players for simplicity, so if you notice those are absent, that's why.

 

Page 1

- probably his first 10-12 posts are fluff and have nothing to do with the game, gives some meta on Zander,

- AtBFG post re: Zander is null

- At Eld: Eldrick had voted Shad because he didn't trust him due to past mistakes, Shad asks if he's superstitious as a joke. States that he heavily pocketed Eld in GnD and the distrust is null. (Link to last post in the string) Nothing really in this exchange that I can say sways either way for Eldrick, I like that Lenlo questioned it even though he wasn't caught up (post 296) Also, #182 relates to this to, it's a post by Turin that's turning Eldrick's strange voting thing around because he's treating Shad and Dice differently atp: Eld or Turin could be maf here

- Asks if Turin touched base on Zander being scum since he put him in the YOLO scum list: "what made you think he and Dice might be w/w?" Either Shad picked up on hints here for neighbors or Turin is the mafia neighbor and Shad is leading him to it. Not going to make assumptions, this could be a totally null post, but that he singles out Zander is odd. **Reading back on this again: ELDRICK states that he already touched base on Dice and Zander, Turin says Tsuki is the most YOLO of the three, but then Shad focuses in on Zander without going back to look. So that does kind of look awkard there.

 

Page 2

- Defends Eldrick: says he's town based on him discrediting a push by Tsuki

- Pushes Tsuki pretty early

- He asks a lot of questions I think that's another thing that pinged me even though I didn't mention it: Shad is always up for offering opinions and conclusions, not so much purely asking questions in a BFG manner. I expect that from BFG, not from Shad

- Link Interaction with Zander about a post from Turin re: if Turin was implying Z calling himself town was townie or something. Shad specifically wnats Turin to explain what he meant.

- Starts casing Tsuki, bothered by Dice's easy town read of Z but thinks Dice's push on Turin was townie, "if not particularly moving"; a little straight up defense of Dice irt Zander, which makes Z look bad; he's particularly snippy towards Zander which is unusual- and is suggesting Zander go look at Dice's stuff on Turin himself, but he's already painting Z in a bad light compared to Turin.

- Link: Going back to what was mentioned earlier irt Turin leaving out reasoning on Zander, still feels like Shad is leading him to it. I'm trying to figure out how natural is was for Shad to bring up Zander or if it was even necessary. The answer is no. It doesn't come of natural at all, makes Turin look bad here.

 

Page 3

- Shad's immediate response to Turin claiming Neighbor. He brings up good points here asking about Zander and his behavior in QT.

- Null post at Niniel, another null post, focusing in on Zander as most were, again Shad pinging for leading Zander on and just letting him sink himself; I think Shad's characterization of Zander was wrong. Meh, what's did is done, I'll know better in the future

 

Page 4

  On 4/9/2016 at 5:13 AM, Shad_ said:

I need to get to sleep. GTH town atp is Tsuki Eldrick Hallia Laine, kind of want to include Rey on that list too.

 

I'll chew on the Turin/Zander/Dice situation.

First of all, doesn't mention Niniel, Lenlo, BFG. Not a big deal but I think they were all kinda active at that point, maybe BFG a little less so. But there's no reason he shouldn't have provided a read on them.

 

Secondly, the Turin/Zander/Dice thing. He led Turin the revealing the Zander QT thing and has done nothing but attack Zander and question him and didn't even LOOK at Turin, though tbh Turin was in a good spot at this point. Dice he had had a town read on and I hadn't seen any progression besides what was happening in thread with Turin/Dice and the TMI stuff. Meh.

 

- A lot of this page was directed at Zander

- Disagrees with BFG on Z meta irt length of joke phase as v/w but doesn't want to go check and see if he's right even though he asked the question in the first place. Seems an odd thing to ask of a teammate and then brush off, so +1 for BFG/Nikon. Eventually decides Z doesn't have a tell on fluff at the start of game.

- Found a good BFG nugget here where she's supporting Zander for the out of thread content being the basis for Turin calling Zander mafia and Shad's response is basically "why is this any less significant". It can't be proven. This case was built on hearsay and yet everyone, including Shad went to Turin's side because he claimed first. I would expect more sound reasoning from Shad (shrug)

- @Turin Shad was in THREE game D1, might be why I was giving him leniency. Forgot he was in Eldrick's game too.

- Bottom of page states that Eldrick has been villagery this game and he'll hard defend if he has to. Town spew? (thumbsup)

 

Page 5

- Shad's "why Turin is town regardless"

- Scum doesn't say this to a teammate: BFG

- More Turin support, yet Shad says he's leaning v/v on Turin/Zander. His thread pushes didn't indicate that to me. Votes RTE, following Zander's lead to cfd basically, I forget how TOWNIE Shad can be sometimes as scum danggit,

  On 4/12/2016 at 3:24 PM, Shad_ said:

Tsuki*- Cop

Turin*- Neighbor

 

Eldrick- Peeked Town

Laine- Town

 

Zander- Dead Town

Hallia- Dead DOC Town

Reyoru- Dead Gov Town

Lenlo/SOOH- jailkeeper

 

Dice- Dead Stump- Town

Niniel

BFG/Nikon - (he's not treating her like a teammate thus far)

 

RTE- Dead Symp- MAFIA

 

^Trimmed this down a little bit. There was a special note about Lenlo/Sooh scooting under the radar or something and how that's a good thing. Besides that, I added in current alignments and roles to his list

 

1. The group above all the dead towns. At least one of those is scum. I'm more likely to believe we have a cop and a peeked town than I am to believe that BOTH neighbors were town. And Shad certainly treated Turin like he could be a teammate and it was awful.

2. At the bottom: Niniel and Nikon. I would vote Niniel over Nikon every time. Like I put in there, Shad was treating BFG like she was town. And even though Nikon hasn't caught up, he's REALLY trying right now. Niniel on the other hand had limited interaction with Shad, there were a lot of null posts and he doesn't try to read her or even provide a read on her in his first reads list which is strange because he had some kind of read on MOST everyone else who was heavily involved in thread at the time. Odd because Niniel was pretty consistently in thread and they communicated. Besides that, Niniel has fallen off a bit since early game and that's sus by itself, bomb or not.

3. Remaining scum is Turin/Niniel, that's game solve. If for some reason it's NOT, I would move into Sooh, Tsuki, then Eldrick in that order, but it should never come to that.

 

 

 

Page 6: Stopping at the top of this page of Shad ISO. Just can't do anymore tonight and it's 1am and I've been up WAY too long.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!

 

Way to mafia claim Alanna.

 

The narrative push here is obvious.  I hadn't even read this when I posted my other list. My goodness.

 

 Do you really think that shad doesn't put at least one teammate in his town list? 

 

GTH town atp is Tsuki Eldrick Hallia Laine, kind of want to include Rey on that list too.  That was his list of townies.

 

Tsuki - cop

Eldrick - maybe but the fact you have him as so high town means you don't believe it is him. (or he really is your teammate and just fooled me. 

Hallia - dead doc

Laine - ding ding ding

Rey - dead governor

 

He kept all of Dice, Z and me in his "chewing" pile because he wanted to keep all the mislynch option open he could.

 

There is also one in the unmentioned just by numbers.

 So either Nikon or Niniel. 

 

That will take some time to figure out too. 

 

I think I will be looking at Niniel, BFG/Nikon shortly

[Eldrick4221]

  On 4/28/2016 at 8:36 AM, Turin Turambar said:

It is going to be telling to see who if anyone dies tonight. Can mafia just kill Niniel and we can see if she was a bomb??? Thanks. 

 

+1

[Eldrick4221]

Oh. Thanks for reminding me. I didn't want to read that post on mobile.