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[Harry Potter Week] Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Mafia - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS

Songstress

By Songstress
in Tar Valon

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ReleaseTheEvil Spam Master

ReleaseTheEvil

Posted
Posted
  On 8/6/2015 at 4:29 PM, Misheru said:

So here's where I'm at now...

 

RTE is my strongest town read for the Hallia-lynch.

 

Still think Rhea is town, I'm gonna try to read over her posts to confirm, it's not that many so I should have time for that.

 

I think Alanna's tunneling of Tab would've been a very stupid move for a mafia, especially considering she was in so many people's spotlight. She never bit on my attempt to redirect her to Clov, wich I think she should have as mafia. She was getting a lot of flack for her tunneling, and the smart thing to do as mafia if she wanted to win was to give her the opportunity I have her to switch her main attention to Clov.

 

I know I am town.

 

So that leaves Clov. The case against him isn't really strong, but process of elimination leaves me with no-one else. I'll try to find time to read through his posts too.

 

 

The nightkills have followed a quite specific pattern. Cairos was a kill with as little info as possible, to give town less to go from. Sooh, BFG and Razen were all players that most or everyone agreed was town. That should've made Clov a good candidate for N2  or N3; it wasn't until D4 that he got any negative attention. Looking at that pattern makes it even more likely he's the last mafia IMO.

 

Can't argue with this, felt the same at the start of yesterday re: Clov.

 

[v] Clov [/v]

michellem Grand Master

michellem

Posted
Posted
  On 8/6/2015 at 4:30 PM, Misheru said:

...I don't remember how to ISO.

 

Figured it out, lol.

 

Yeah I'm not even halfway in Rhea's ISO and I'm convinced she isn't our remaining mafia. Her reads list from D1:

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/95026-harry-potter-week-harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-mafia-day-5/page-45?do=findComment&comment=3521747

Here she points out negatives about Hallia wayyy before Hallia gets any proper attention at all. That makes me feel good. Bad move to do for a fellow mafia.

 

And her interactions with Hallia on D3 looks really good for her too, it doesn't seem forced or fake.

 

And generally her tone seems open, honest and genuine. I don't get the feeling she's trying to hide anything, or that she's sliding by with a good excuse. Solid green for me.

Rhea Grand Master

Rhea

Posted
Posted

Thanks Mish! I like Green. *grins*

 

I'm waiting to hear from Laine.

Rhea Grand Master

Rhea

Posted
Posted

I will be out of town and not allowed on electronic devices tomorrow. So I've been told. LOL... It's my son's birthday and we will be at Valley Fair and the Wet-n-Wild Water Park getting crazy with a bunch of 13-14 year old boys. Woohoo! (I will probably be hiding in a bungalow with my phone so who knows, I might pop on here and there!). 

 

Anyway...I wanted to give fair warning in case I don't get anything out of anyone *cough cough* tonight. 

Rhea Grand Master

Rhea

Posted
Posted

It's gotten way too quiet in here. 

 

Laine, are you still sleeping? 

Rhea Grand Master

Rhea

Posted
Posted

Well...I'm going to bed. I hope there's more content here by the time I get back on.

alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

Posted
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I'm on lunch break and I have a lot to say when I'm home in 6ish hours.

 

For now, I'd like to see everyone's reads lists from most town to most scummy? I just want to know where we're at. I want to get this right this time; I spent the whole night beating myself up but I'm still determined to win.

 

I'm looking forward to a Clov ISO when I get home. I was thinking last night and he fell right into the bottom of my Poe for a few reasons, I just need to make sure I articulate it correctly.

alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

Posted
Posted

ISO by going to the top the page while still in the thread and click the search icon it'll bring you to a new screen and type in the players name you want to ISO and you can sort their posts.

Rhea Grand Master

Rhea

Posted
Posted

I really expected there to be more here when I got up this morning. 

 

 

  On 8/7/2015 at 3:03 AM, alannalynn said:

I'm on lunch break and I have a lot to say when I'm home in 6ish hours.

For now, I'd like to see everyone's reads lists from most town to most scummy? I just want to know where we're at. I want to get this right this time; I spent the whole night beating myself up but I'm still determined to win.

I'm looking forward to a Clov ISO when I get home. I was thinking last night and he fell right into the bottom of my Poe for a few reasons, I just need to make sure I articulate it correctly.

 

Now you decide to look at Clov? 

 

  On 8/7/2015 at 3:04 AM, alannalynn said:

ISO by going to the top the page while still in the thread and click the search icon it'll bring you to a new screen and type in the players name you want to ISO and you can sort their posts.

 

Thanks!

Rhea Grand Master

Rhea

Posted
Posted
I have to go get ready to leave....so I don't have time to go into a bunch of ISOs and reads.

 

Here's what I say. I think Laine screwed up. I don't think that clears her completely. 

 

As for Clov, the tone of his posts seem very carefully articulated. Combined with his voting, and the NK patterns, it just feels like something is amiss there. I said before I couldn't put my finger on it 100%. 

 

RTE isn't a high read for me, but not on the bottom either. Could you please point out the posts at the beginning of yesterday when you felt the same about Clov? (In re: to the above post #1327) 

 

Mish/Kronos have not given me any reason to suspect they are not town.

 

Me

Mish/Kronos

RTE

Laine

Clov

 

 

 

I will get back on when I can.

 

I still want to hear what Laine has to say.

alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

Posted
Posted

I'm working on a nice pretty post sorry it's taking time I want to make sure I cover everything. Thanks for the reads lists, I have Clov at the bottom too right now. I'm wary to push anything because I've been wrong pretty much the entire game, so I may leave things up to you guys a little more. Okay back to my ISO...

alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

Posted
Posted

First of all, I'm sorry Taborline, I thought I was right. :/ I feel super awful about that lynch

 

My list:

RTE

Rhea

Mish

Clov

Okay, so I was thinking at work during night phase and realized the last mafia is Clov. If I'm right, he's been subtly guiding this game the whole time. He's been off mafia lynches this whole game and he's been floating by. What really bothers me is on D3 when he went over and voted Taborline, but I have everything here in my wonderful awful ISO WoT I'm sorry in advance.

As for the other players.. RTE has been pretty clear to me for a while now and if he's wolfing, I'll be shocked because he got his teammate Hally lynched. lol. Mish is playing pretty clear town for someone who just both subbed in and is rusty. It helps that Kronos was calm under pressure earlier in the game which I don't think he would do as mafia. Rhea's been steadily improving since earlier in the game and I also like Mish's points on her. Added bonus that she moved to a Clov vote yesterday after Mish did: this feels like a townie move to me (why would scum move? We're all good lynches and I was pushing the Taborline wagon hella hard)

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

[v]Clov[/v]

Clovdyx Spam Master

Clovdyx

Posted
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All caught up.  I'm half torn between actually trying to help win this game and just seeing if you all can figure it out tomorrow.  Everything in the thread makes me think it should be Laine.  She had the completely unjustified read of Dice, taking Rhea over Hallia when she nominated them both for competing, kind of an irrational defense of me (up to this point, I mean).  Combined that with the fact she's really the only other "lynchable" person at this point, and I really ought to be voting for her.

 

But I'm not going to.

 

[v]ReleasetheEvil[/v]

 

I don't expect anybody to listen to me about this today - tbf I probably wouldn't either.  But lynching me is not going to end this game, and I'm more concerned with winning the game than winning a phase, so please....please... keep this in mind at F3.  I won't pretend that I absolutely must be right about this - but I think I am.

 

 

RTE has 91 posts.  A third of those have come in the past week since Dice's lynch.  It seems like most of us wrote him off after Dice's flip (I'm partially guilty of this, myself) and he really hasn't done much of anything towards actually solving the game since.  Somebody made a comment about me flying under the radar (WHAT?) - I've gotten more active as the game's gone on.  I have yet to see a game where their teammates dying puts energy INTO people.  The whole impending loss kind of kills the WIM.  But what do I know?  

 

Why RTE is absolutely not cleared from the Dice lynch - 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Now look at his progress on me, starting D2.  Remember, he already said I was looking pretty town, and wished I was around more.

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Clovdyx Spam Master

Clovdyx

Posted
Posted

TL;DR - RTE has done nothing, whatsoever, to contribute to solving this game.  He's been riding credit from the Dice lynch that he shouldn't have ever gotten, and his flip on me today doesn't fit with his mindset throughout the course of the game.  I think he realizes I'm not going to be able to talk myself out of this one, and he'll gladly take somebody out of the game he thinks is a strong player (unless he just kept bringing my reputation up because he was trying to pocket me, in which case, I strongly approve of your methods).

Clovdyx Spam Master

Clovdyx

Posted
Posted

Leading up to Dice's no lynch, this was the most recent VC.

 

  On 7/29/2015 at 7:30 AM, Songstress said:

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Taborline (2): Laine, Lessa
RTE (3): Clov, Kronos, Hallia
Lessa (1): Razen

Not Voting (7): Taborline, BFG, RTE, Rhea, Sooh, Cairos, Dice

Deadline for Day 1 is Wednesday, July 29 at 9:00 AM MST:
http://www.timeandda...t=cursive&csz=1

 

8-1/2 HOURS UNTIL DEADLINE

 

 

 

  On 7/29/2015 at 9:38 AM, ReleaseTheEvil said:

 

  On 7/28/2015 at 6:50 PM, Rhea said:

 

  On 7/28/2015 at 3:45 PM, ReleaseTheEvil said:

I think Tambourline's blunder is a noob one, and one very indicative of her noobness at mafia and nothing else. I will be looking closely at people who take the opportunity to build a train on her based on it. 

 

While I agree with the thought of Taborline's reaction as a noob blunder. I can't help but feel that RTE is doing a bit of defending (or maybe deflecting) here (bold and underlined). Taking note of that. Just notes, hunches, and gut feelings are all Iv'e got right now! 

 

 

 

  On 7/28/2015 at 7:41 PM, Clovdyx said:

Also don't like Rhea"s post. It gives me the feeling she is (or should be?) Suspicious of him, but she just "notes it".

 

This might be mafia rust on her part, but she's been one of the only people in this game to not back up her suspicions with a vote. This stands out to me, bit too safe on her part.

 

[v] Rhea [/v]

 

 

Plus one vote for Rhea...

 

 
  On 7/29/2015 at 10:51 AM, dicetosser1 said:

oh and BFG?? you want me to vote whereever I please? here

 

vote no lynch   I DONT see this as bad. Odds are that we mislynch a townie today. No lynch means 1 less townie dies we still have the info gathered today tomorrow 

 

with that im off to bed and wont be back for DL as told earlier

 

 

And the no lynch.  I don't see Dice as the type of player that would simply wash his hands if EVERY train was townie.  We know Taborline was town.  We know Lessa was town.  I'm pretty comfortable with Rhea being town, based on Hallia pushing her.  That leaves RTE, who happened to be the leading vote getter at the time.  If Dice wasn't trying to protect RTE, I honestly have no clue what he was trying to do.

Clovdyx Spam Master

Clovdyx

Posted
Posted
  On 8/6/2015 at 4:22 PM, Misheru said:

 

  On 8/6/2015 at 1:17 AM, Clovdyx said:

 

You complete me.   :wub:   

 

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to make about the hard nut to crack comment, so I'm going to ignore that.  I already stated what I think about the "argument" of me being alive as a reason to suspect me - it's not one.  You go on to state that me being alive combined with the fact I haven't lynched mafia (which IS a perfectly fair statement) makes you wary, but let's think about this logically.  Why would they shoot me?  You don't kill people you can get lynched - you get them lynched.

 

I think your point about me not trying to be town leader is blatantly wrong.  Go back and look at D1.  RTE was the leader for a good portion of the day, and I was one of the first to argue for him.  I don't know if anybody was on him before me and unvoted, but I'm fairly certain he was at zero when I pushed him.  Yes, that meant not lynching Dice, but you can't have it both ways - should I have been trying to lead, or should I have been following BFG's case?  

 

I haven't been on a single lynch.  This is ALSO a perfectly fair statement to make, but I think it's pretty misleading, too.  RTE was the leading vote getter when I went to bed, he was the leading vote getter when I went to work, and he was the leading vote getter when I checked in on my phone.  I get that you don't know my schedule, but I don't think it's hard to see the vast majority of my posts this game have come at certain hours.  The Lessa lynch I didn't vote for, but why should I have?  I made my argument for her being very likely to be mafia based off Dice as soon as day started, then I went back to bed...she had been run up before I got home.  I'm not going to apologize for NOT trying to get more information out.

 

Last point...I want to make a snarky comment about hindsight, but you subbed in late in a game.  I can't expect you to have the same perception you might had you been there from the beginning.   :dry:

 

 

Rhea - No problem with your conclusion here.  I think some of her posts had some awkward tone, but there's no objective way to debate that.  This is my first game with her, so I can't really confirm or refute the meta claim.

 

Tab - What do you feel she can have blame placed on her for?  Not really sure where you're going with that.

 

Alanna - A few questions about this read.  First, I don't know what you're suggesting by saying she hasn't been very involved in finding Hallia or Dice "this far".  I feel like you meant "Hallia and Dice's teammate", but I'm not 100%.  Can you clarify that?  Also, I'd like to hear what made you initially go Alanna over Tab.  You said that you were going to chalk Alanna up as mafia because you don't have a read on her, but the first sentence of Tab makes it seem like you're equally confused.  I would expect them to be at least even in your order.

 

RTE - Agree with your conclusion.  I would note that RTE was NOT the first to vote Hallia on D3 - Razen was.  Razen moved off to Hallia to Tab the last day of D3.  However, the fact that RTE stayed is a big plus in his favor for me.

 

 

First of all: I think I already said this before, but my memory is spotty on large parts of the game because of the insanely big posts going on here and there. I ment that I couldn't remember seeing Alanna being much involved in the lynches of Dive and Hallia, that she was mostly looking elsewhere. But that brings me to point nr 2:

 

 All my points about Tab and Alanna in that post was to gauge reactions from each of them. I did have Tab higher up on my suspect list than Alanna, the most point against Alanna I had was her voting pattern EOD. But like I stated before, I wanted to make Tab think I could be on her side against Alanna to see what would come from that. Now however, with Tab's flip, I'm back to square 1 with how I feel about Alanna. On the other hand... She had to know, if she's mafia, that she would be the clear lynch today after Tab's flip. That makes me feel better about her.

 

I haven't noticed exactly what times of day you are on, no. But I still find it a bit too hard to believe that you've managed to be on none of the mafia lynches and only town lynches. You are also one of the best players in the game, wich both Hallia and Dice would know, and they would know that if you go into town leader mode you are dangerous, and would make more sense to be a N1 or N2 kill. You're hard to lynch, at least as far as I can remember, so that's not an argument. And the most damning this is of course the one that's hardest to pin down and show; I don't feel like you've been on a strong town game.

 

 

First, you say that like there have been some incredibly high amount of mafia lynches, and I've magically avoided them all.  There have been TWO - one of which wasn't even an option when I was online (Dice).  He had 1 vote when I checked in during my lunch break, and he had 1 vote when I went back to work.  Again, I don't expect you know the schedule, but my last post was before Sooh even moved on Dice. I'm not going to randomly CFD somebody who hadn't done much of anything over a lynch I chose to start.

 

 

Second, if you're town (and I believe you are), you can't objectively say that.  I understand that you're townreading RTE.  Until I caught up this morning, I was too...but I wasn't when I pushed him on D1.  He hadn't done anything to that point, so you're trying to use the fact you think I'm wrong based on something that hadn't even occurred when I make my argument.  

 

 

Not sure where you're going with me being a hard lynch.  I guess I'll agree, in the sense that I don't go down without fighting, but given I've been mislynched here more than I've been mislynched every where else and the number of times I've been lynched as mafia...not sure sure that's true anymore.   :dry:

 

Last... I'm not going to even attempt to refute that.  I'm already 2/3 on putting townies as mafia from spew, haven't lynched the mafia, and I'm pretty sure I semi-cleared the last one.  I'll take some satisfaction if I'm right about RTE since I pushed him D1, but you're right - this is not my best game.  But I do believe I've put more work into solving it than almost anybody else, and I won't apologize for not being right all the time.  

Clovdyx Spam Master

Clovdyx

Posted
Posted

I'm going to take Laine's post in chunks to keep it from being massive.  Deal with it  :tongue:

 

  Quote
DAY 2:
LINK Based on Mafia!Dice interactions, BFG town, Razen town, Cairos town, probably RTE. My problem with this post is that he wrote it during the night (it was posted 9 minute after deadline, and it doesn't account for Cairos' death). I'm never so confident that I won't die during the night that I write up WoTs. Anyways, not sure if this is a +/- on his part because as mafia he would have Cairos off that list, but I see him thinking far enough ahead to leave him there as well. So maybe a neg after all.

LINK Next, feeling worst about Alanna, Tab, Lessa. (or what I like to call our prime mislynch targets?) #TeamPMT

This and this put doubt on RTE's standing as an opposing train to Dice's lynch

Pushes Tab, votes Alanna

 

 

First of all, I would like to confirm I did write those posts during the night phase.  I'm pretty sure everybody already knew that (there's no way I could do that much that quickly), but I'll throw it out there as the truth.  I wasn't sure I wasn't going to die, but I had some confidence - I actually expected BFG to die first (something about leading a mafia lynch, being pretty unanimous town????).  But even if I had, so what?  They go to waste, but it's better to be able to put my thoughts out early than have to wait.

 

Laine - I'm not sure if you remember these posts, but in terms of whether I would do something like that when I could be NK'ed, 1, 2, 3.  I'll concede I posted those DURING the night phase as I wrote them (and ironically was vigged that same night), rather than holding onto them for start of day, but obviously I couldn't do that here.  

 

In terms of the candidates...yes, I named you three.  I went through the thread and found the people who played the end of day in a way that made the most sense from a town POV and the ones whose play didn't.  IIRC you said you agreed with most of what I said in those, at the time - go back and re-evaluate them.  Tell me what stands out as completely off based on the flow of the thread at the time.

 

 

IRT the posts about RTE... yes, I was explaining why I didn't think he was cleared and what my concern was, in the first one.  I already explained what I was addressing with the second one here.

 

 
  On 7/31/2015 at 11:04 PM, Clovdyx said:

 

  On 7/31/2015 at 10:21 PM, Rhea said:

 

  On 7/31/2015 at 8:50 PM, Clovdyx said:

Do you think Lessa and RTE are a viable team, or would they have to be separate?

 

I don't know what you mean by team exactly? If you mean do I think they could both be mafia, I do suppose it is possible though it's probably a stretch. My gut says Lessa panicked and came in last second to make it a tie to try and get Dice off in a tie breaker. Giving him a 50/50 chance. Which if true, would make me lean more towards RTE being town because the more I think about it the more I don't know what benefit it would have to all 3 of them for her to make it a tie right then. LOL...I'm up in the air right now. I think finding out Lessa's true alignment is a good way to move forward at this point.  

 

 

Bold is exactly what I mean.  The reason I asked, and why I asked if you would be willing to lynch RTE today earlier, is because I wanted to see how you would talk about the two of them.  I made a comment about something you did that caught my eye (taking out the IRL-related comments):

 

 
  On 7/30/2015 at 11:45 AM, Rhea said:

Good job guys! I know it came down to random roll....though my gut feeling is either way we would have caught scum, and I think their teammate was hoping to make it a tie so that the one left would look clean. 

 

In that case I think I will [v]Lessa[/v] for now and see how things shake out. I need to go back and read everything again and look at a few things. But I think that last minute tie vote pretty much cinches it for me. 

 

I will be back and let you all know what the doctor says.

 

Carry on!

 

 

The only way that we could have caught scum either way yesterday is if RTE and Dice were teammates, obviously.  So her "gut feeling" was that RTE was mafia - which makes it impossible to determine Lessa's alignment - but she voted for her anyways.  That was after she had already gotten three votes in the first seven hours.  AFAICT she's made no progress on him (or anyone else, based on her earlier reads list) today and hasn't even tested the waters to even get people to consider him as scum.

 

 

I was trying to gauge whether she was committed to the read she gave out earlier (thinking that RTE was also mafia with Dice, and that Lessa was just voting between two teammates).  She seemed to immediately have shifted towards Lessa without even batting at eye at RTE, and I pushed her for it - partially to see if it would get traction, and partially because we had already run up Lessa and I wanted more info the thread.  I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I don't play pure deadline games by running up the top candidate at the start of phase and sit twirling your thumbs for the next day and a half.  I feel that's such a pretty basic concept.

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