American Gods Mafia [Advanced] - mafia win

[WWWwombat]

Wombat I would guess you are a villager this game. I am happy to see that.

 

I don't mind your conclusion regarding myself and Dice but I know I'm town and I think Dice is more likely to be than I thought originally so I'm still going to say you are probably wrong.

 

Ok.  We will see.

[Andrej]

Well that's lame.

[WWWwombat]

no u

 

u fenriring?

[Andrej]

Idk what you mean by that.

 

Legit though if you're a villager like I think I am now disappointed in you. Whatever though, can't slow me down breh.

[WWWwombat]

Out for a while now.

[WWWwombat]

Idk what you mean by that.

 

Legit though if you're a villager like I think I am now disappointed in you. Whatever though, can't slow me down breh.

 

Show me you're town and I'll move.

[鲍勃不是我的名字]

Like if he wanted to push the angle that NotBob was scum and lurking I could accept that and I would say that's par for the course regarding NB.

 

But saying we should lynch him because wolves will NK him both assumes that NotBob is town and implies he wants to willingly lynch someone he thinks is town for... profit??

 

This.

 

I took it as he knew I was town.  Only scum knows for sure.

[WWWwombat]

Anyway, taking a break for real now.

[Andrej]

Fair enough.

[BFG]

VC 1.10

 

Seph (2/7): Sili, Darthe

Dice (1/7): John Snow

Andrej (2/7): Dicetosser1, Wombat

Wombat (1/7): Seph

Dae (2/7): AJ, NB

 

Not Voting (4): Hallia, Thane, Sooh, Dae

 

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.  

A deadline has been set!

 

Please note that this is on SUNDAY!

 

 

[seph]

Notbob what did you think of his last explanation of that post?

[Andrej]

Im about to pop out for a few hours but does anyone know when/if Notbob is going to be active? Because at the moment he is an easy mafia kill n1 to deny us info, and if thats the case I'd rather lynch him and get the mafia to make a more difficult decision.

 

This is the original post in context. Here Dae is clearly saying that we should lynch NotBob because as town it eliminates the scum team from having a NK target that doesn't give town information. This is inherently anti-Town play because it's never in a villager's interest to lynch someone that could be town for the sake of muddy NK info. I'm willing to take my POV with a grain of salt considering the progressiveness of DMafia play, but still - legitimately a bad a stance if Dae is a villager or just blatantly wolfy.

 

 

Im about to pop out for a few hours but does anyone know when/if Notbob is going to be active? Because at the moment he is an easy mafia kill n1 to deny us info, and if thats the case I'd rather lynch him and get the mafia to make a more difficult decision.

 

Just quickly read everything to catch up, and I'll have to go back and make reads. This stood out to me though. Why would this be a good lynch? Unless he's scum it's always more beneficial to try to lynch other scum. 

 

A few others have already touched on this post but I don't find it necessarily bad. It's sort of a simple conclusion to come to but I don't really understate what Sooh was getting at with the bolded bit.

 

 

Seph what I dislike about your post is calling your wagon a legitimate train and saying there must be at least one mafia on it. Seems premature at this point. By that logic either Sili or Wombat are scum and frankly I think it's too early to tell.

 

Statistically, either Seph or one of the three on his train is probs a wolf. 

 

Statistically, maybe. I wouldn't recommend this being the way to go about things though - Wombat made a post later on that I agree with. Any sample of 4 players could potentially yield a wolf but that doesn't make it true in every instance.

 

 

[v]Dae[/v]

 

You got some explaining to do.

 

NotBob - now that you're here though, read up and give some thoughts?

 

You found scum in your vote.  

 

Vote Dae

 

I typically try to.

 

Is it something you see him doing as scum though?

 

I had to trim the rest of the quotes because they got messed up while I was trying to edit. To answer I can't really say one way or the other. Typically I would associate Dice's scum game with lurking and voting opportunistically, but it has been a while since I last saw him as a wolf so my read could be outdated. The part that I found off was how he said he intentionally left the mistake to see Snow's reaction and town read him for it, as I felt John as either alignment could've reacted similarly.

 

1.  So?  Statistically, you can pick 4 players arbitrarily and 1 of them is likely to be a wolf.

 

2.  Dae is not new, but old.  No info kills were a pretty big thing back when he played, so I can see that part of his post.  Even accepting the premise, I don't agree with that being a good reason to lynch NotBob, but I also don't see it as damning.

 

3.  Seems like standard NotBob to me.

 

Taking the old meta of the site into account I can see your perspective here but I still think it's not something that should be disregarded. Other than that I wanted to say that I agree with the other points you made here.

 

With deadline on Sunday morning, we need to do some work today.  Dae is a stupid lynch.  His post was by no means a scum claim and his lynch gains us nothing if he flips town.  Right now, my top 4 lynch candidates are Seph, AJ, Dice, and Sooh.  In particular, I don't see the way Dice and AJ interacted as coming from V/V or W/W.  It reads like they were feeling each other out a bit but then Dice brought some OMGUS to the table, which is a bit scummy in this situation imo.  Then AJ backed off, which is also kinda scummy imo.  I don't see them doing such inept distancing as scummates, but I don't get a V/V feel from it either.

 

Fair enough I guess. From my standpoint Dice made some posts in reaction that made me reconsider my read and I don't feel the need to continue arguing with him when I didn't think his likelihood of being a wolf was very high anymore. I would also say that it's not really in my wolf game to avoid conflicts - I don't shy away from the limelight.

 

Dae wolves tend to kill people who are louder now so that at the end of the game the only ones who are left can't really make good decisions. similar lee it is considered an honor to be killed because it means you were a threat

 

The race for being murdered N1 is a real thing.

 

 

Wombat I disagree on Dae.

 

To paraphrase he basically said "let's lynch this villager so the wolves have a harder time picking their NK"

 

Like... wut?????????????

 

No, combine that with the theory that lurking is a classic mafia strategy (at one point the stats here were something like 70% of lurkers were Mafia) and then we have a legit play. Best case, you get a lurking mafia, worse case you lose a villager that wasn't engaged and force the mafia to make a NK that gives info.

 

Unless someone absolutely breaks down, that strat always seemed a better idea than lynching randomly (which, lets be honest, it normally is at this point - I can remember about two games where we got a Mafia on night 1 and one of those was pure luck).

 

Interesting if the new strat is to go for the 'leaders'. Egging on the vocal leaders, i can see that. Manipulating those leaders, ditto. I could see the Mafia doing well if we ended up floundering for lack of leaders at the end, but seems risky if they get it wrong and risk giving the medic a clear save target.

 

D1 lynches don't have to be random and rarely are tbh. It's true that D1 you have the least information to go off of but I don't think settling on lynching a lurker is always the best strategy. It varies in some cases and I have pushed for inactives to swing in the past but I don't like the way you framed your argument with the logic that it forces the NK to be more informative.

 

 

 

Yeah that sounds like some garbage Dice. True enough you "reaction test" but that's in the form of a straight forward question. Here you're saying you intentionally left a mistake to see what the outcome would be. If the mistake was that obvious John could've answered the same as either alignment so I don't see what you were hoping to gain there.

 

Also if I wanted to jump on you I would've voted you. Consider this as a bridge of communication because I know my ability to read you and I don't want you to swing until I'm convinced your scum. Thus far I haven't liked your posts this game and counter attacking me isn't going to help.

 

 

 

AJ makes the point that the reaction test means nothing and then issues Dice a warning of sorts.  These types of warnings tend to come more from scum than town imo.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dice, is stupid in your town or mafia meta?

AJ take a look at that response. Thats not a standard sort of answer to that sort of thing. Thats pure honesty tone wise. NOT something Mafia posts.

I will agree that I thought the response was genuine, but that's not really the issue I have here. What I disliked was you saying that you left the mistake intentionally to see how Snow responded to it. That's not something I see you doing. Part of what I consider your town game is your bluntness. You're not the type to try tricky phrasing or whatever to get reactions.

 

Well I did it.  I wouldnt say there was tricky phrasing or anything. I simply didnt recant what was a fairly straightforward post.

 

anyways moving on now

 

 

 

Dice basically says: I did it.  Get over it.

 

Somewhat townish reaction imo.

 

Not much I can say to the first bold if that's your opinion on it. I was more so trying to be reasonable with Dice and express that I had an issue with him but wasn't willing to pursue his lynch over it yet.

 

I also agree with the second bold, which is a reason why I have reconsidered my read.

 

Because I am not sure that they both are town. Which is why it bugs me.

Dae to be honest I think lynching give more information than nks. You have vote records, stances, and a more evidence then wondering why mafia killed this person.

I get your explanation, but the way that was posted earlier looked extremely scummy. And it doesn't clear you at all.

 

I agree with the bolded part in a generic sense. Not gonna give you townie points for stating as much - but yeah, NK spec is muddy at best and considering lynching is collectively the town's power to beat the mafia it is always more informative.

 

 

And Dae you're adding the caveat that NB could be scum after the fact. So either you expressed yourself extremely poorly or you have already assumed (or know) he is town and are still willing to lynch him.

 

Old school or not that is legit terrible town play or just straight wolfy.

 

What if I told you that there's roughly a 75% chance that we lynch a villager today.

 

I would tell you that lynching the most likely wolf is in our best interests then. Also I think you know that just because the percentage is high doesn't mean that has to be the absolute outcome. Wolves can get lynched D1 if the town is diligent enough.

[Andrej]

That does it for me until later.

 

Now that it has been discussed and proven why Dae's theory isn't pro-town I would like to see how he progresses elsewhere with his reads.

 

Currently I think a good number of villagers lie in:

 

Wombat

John Snow

Thane

Dice

 

Maybe Darthe.

 

Probably NotBob.

 

[BFG]

I will see you good folk in the morning :)

[Darthe]

That does it for me until later.

 

Now that it has been discussed and proven why Dae's theory isn't pro-town I would like to see how he progresses elsewhere with his reads.

 

Currently I think a good number of villagers lie in:

 

Wombat

John Snow

Thane

Dice

 

Maybe Darthe.

 

Probably NotBob.

That's the oddest way to give a list of town reads.

[Andrej]

Maybe. Do you disagree with any?

[Darthe]

MAYBE

[鲍勃不是我的名字]

Notbob what did you think of his last explanation of that post?

 

How would anyone talk his way through a poor argument such as the one he made.  Right now his original post looks the scummiest thing I've seen in this game.  

 

Does his explanation sound plausible to you?

[Hallia]

Well that was fun.

 

 

I got no breaks and no lunch -.-  

 

Reading now.

[dicetosser1]

 

 

 

 

Dice, is stupid in your town or mafia meta?

AJ take a look at that response. Thats not a standard sort of answer to that sort of thing. Thats pure honesty tone wise. NOT something Mafia posts.

I will agree that I thought the response was genuine, but that's not really the issue I have here. What I disliked was you saying that you left the mistake intentionally to see how Snow responded to it. That's not something I see you doing. Part of what I consider your town game is your bluntness. You're not the type to try tricky phrasing or whatever to get reactions.

 

 

Well I did it.  I wouldnt say there was tricky phrasing or anything. I simply didnt recant what was a fairly straightforward post.

 

anyways moving on now

 

 

I don't see the point of the reaction test.  Your post was obviously erroneous.  How would scum have reacted to it differently?

 

 

the point was to see what he did. i tone read a lot. he could have come in said "you are wrong im town" and nothing more. That makes the test useless. What he typed gave me a feel on him.

 

I could go back if you really want, but it was mainly just the feel I got while reading it.  They both seemed very cautious, which is not something I associate with their town games.

 

AJ has changed his style. I used to be a GOAT Aj reader. Now im not. Its bugging me. I seem to be voting him a lot lately.

[dicetosser1]

im adding Wombat to my probably town pile.

[Hallia]

Dang only three pages in and plenty to see, I like et.

vote seph cause I can

 

[v]dice[/v] for a 3 minute "ninja"

I'm with John Snow here.  Most promising thing I've seen.

Peeked Hally town N0

If only so, LOVE MEEEEEE

Well I'm home, and I have a bit of time now.
Aj I think yates helped me out on sili a bit last game.
Well I am here to inform you aj, I am going to solve this game, and I will not be leaving easily.

I like the sound of Seph so far 8/10 would not vote.

[Hallia]

Up through page 5:

Hi John, call me Dae

 

Thoughts so far? (bearing in mind i am so far off the current meta and have played with perhaps Dice and Wwwombat before only). Thoughts on three for now:

 

Darthe's call was interesting. Gut instinct is it paints a massive target on Halia for N1, with Darthe relying on her innocence to effectively vouch for him. But that play could come from Mafia or Town, could be a double bluff or could just be something to start the day off. So tough call.

 

Seph went defensive very quickly, but Wwwombat didn't even try to fabricate a reason for his vote. A more standard play for day 1 (blind accusation), and Seph possibly bit a little quickly for me. However it wasn't entirely a blind accusation as Sili had already gone for him. Bandwagon perhaps?

 

Dice... honest mistake, deliberate action, slip up? Not sure. I can understand both John's vote for him, and Andrej similarly jumping in. The problem is I smell the hint of a bandwagon here as well. Am i just being paranoid having been out for so long? Probably. 

 

I'd quite like to hear something substantive from AJ, Thane, Sooh and Hallia though (if anything for more information later on). Wombat has at least voted, but again, some more text would be useful. 

I'm liking your thoughts so far.  Pretty insightful.

 

As well as this, can I just say that wow.  John Snow's play is awesome.  I have him as strong town up to this point.

[Clovdyx]

VC 1.10

 

Seph (2/7): Sili, Darthe

Dice (1/7): John Snow

Andrej (2/7): Dicetosser1, Wombat

Wombat (1/7): Seph

Dae (2/7): AJ, NB

 

Not Voting (4): Hallia, Thane, Sooh, Dae

 

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.  

A deadline has been set!

 

Please note that this is on SUNDAY!

 

 

 

 

This is still correct.

[Clovdyx]

#Moddingmadeeasy