Darthe's Mafia Game Over. Mafia Wins.

[bgrishinko]

I doubt that Talya would bus as 1st Vote on a LYLO day.

 

Why would she need goodwill if she could just get someone else Lynched?

 

I don't trust you @ Mish - but now I've asked, if Day starts early I will blame you

 

Fair enough. If I were mafia and knew Rand was in hot water as a likely lynch, I would have been first to vote honestly. Safest place on the lynch.

[Ithillian Turambar]

I'm thinking that Dap being mentioned in Rand's death scene - being in his Squad - meant that Rand was his Captain.

 

That would explain why he was left alive so long, but then he maybe started disobeying orders AND wanting Rand dead. I guess they decided he wasn't so useful at that point.

 

Also Rands role means the Mirror was a Lie. So how did Chuckles end up Dead?

 

Did Captain Rand order Dap to JK him and then they NKd Chuckles - or do they have a Blocker of their own?

 

OR does the mention of Dap mean nothing and the Captain ordered Chuckles to shoot himself? He refused. Lost his Role for the Night and then they NKd him.

 

I think the first option is more likely - and with Chuckles out of the way they didn't need a stroppy Jailkeeper anymore causing trouble in the Day.

[Ithillian Turambar]

 

 

I doubt that Talya would bus as 1st Vote on a LYLO day.

 

Why would she need goodwill if she could just get someone else Lynched?

 

I don't trust you @ Mish - but now I've asked, if Day starts early I will blame you

Fair enough. If I were mafia and knew Rand was in hot water as a likely lynch, I would have been first to vote honestly. Safest place on the lynch.

 

 

Well as it was Leyrann who avoided the Lynch the previous Day - it was more likely I would go for him. Or Mish.

 

But you voted for Ley 1st and I think he's Mafia. By your own reasoning I should think you are too

 

And hey - another Townie Type/amgiguous Role on a Mafia. Fancy that.

[michellem]

I'm extremely torn on who I think is the last 2 mafia between BG, Ley and Talya. And I gotta admit, I still don't fully trust Cloud. Especially after Rand's role reveal. If they had a captain, he could have denied Cloud the use of this role, and they could have killed him. Considering that Dap was town, I find it unlikely that town has two protetictive roles.  Either Cloud is mafia, and lying about his role (very easy to say you selfprotect each night, maybe even more so if Rand was told wich roles he could control from the beginning; he would probably be told Cop, Vig and Jailkeeper, so in other words fakeclaiming Doc would be seen as very safe). If he's mafia, I think Ley is town. If he's town, I think Ley is mafia. To me it makes sense that my role is there to mess with the watcher, especially since I'm compulsive; if I don't choose someone to visit by the end of night, someone will be chosen for me. It seems like a logical balance that I'm town visitor to mess with mafia watcher.

 

Talya sticks out on the VCs, she's been on every lynch. I saw BG just posted saying she might have started this to bus Rand and gain some town cred, and I agree with that to some extent. I don't like agreeing with BG since I don't trust him though lol. On the other hand, mafia didn't need to place any votes on each other yesterday; just on townies and then hope that at last one townie took the bait. My main beefs with her is that she doesn't read posts properly (so many incidents where she's clearly shown that), she spreads misinformation with her not reading stuff properly; it creates distractions and confusions. 

 

Thing is with yesterdays votes nothing fits. Someone bussed someone. BG voted for Ley. If it was those two and Rand as mafia together; why would he do that? For the same reasons he says Talya voted Rand ofc; to get town cred. But mafia didn't need to bus yesterday like I already said; they just had to wait for one townie to place a vote on another townie, and then they could pounce on. The only one I'm timidly trusting now is Ithi; if she and Rand was teammates, placing a vote putting a teammate at L-2 was an even more weird move than placing the first vote on a teammate. 

 

I'm giving myself a headache now, and I'm super hungry, so I'll be back after dinner to mull some more. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

Very confusing role. My only thing is that if he could control roles, it makes you wonder which roles as no one seems to have said anything. But then maybe he could direct the Serial killer to kill himself, otherwise who did protect Rand, if he wasn't a mirror. Or did they direct Cloud to? Have you been instructed at all Cloud? What about Ley, have you been directed?

 

It might be that he could tell them what to do ie silence someone or tell them who to vote for.

 

@Mish - as for hinting, I would have checked with Darthe what I could say and couldn't, just to make sure. I had this given to me one night in Deep Space 9 game and ask Basel what I could say and couldn't say. I managed it in such away that people guessed I had done it without hinting or anything. Where there is a will there is a way. I certainly would not come on here and make a case for someone then vote them, just so you didn't look mafia. As for your information being more important than roles, not at all. You wanted an excuse for saying why you went for Ed, why not just back up what you had said. Of course, it would depend on what exactly Rand's role is. But then you could have worked that our between you to try and make you look more town.

 

@Cloud, - why didn't you go for Dap, I would have said he was a good bet last night. not that I don't appreciate the sentiment. however with the way things stand I think you only have a couple of shots at doc, seen as Dap was Doc/Roleblocker, and we had a limited cop and maybe have a watcher.

 

As a thought, if Rands role was to direct the Cop and Doc, and they only had two shots (if cloud does too). Still doesn't explain Chuckles dying, unless cloud protected Rand?

Talya - Chuckles was our Vig

 

Lol

[Ithillian Turambar]

Talya makes a lot of sense to me.

 

Apart from when she doesn't.

[Ithillian Turambar]

I'm loving the buddying up btw @ Mish.

 

@ Ley - I double dare you to Watch me tonight.

[Ithillian Turambar]

I'm extremely torn on who I think is the last 2 mafia between BG, Ley and Talya. And I gotta admit, I still don't fully trust Cloud. Especially after Rand's role reveal. If they had a captain, he could have denied Cloud the use of this role, and they could have killed him. Considering that Dap was town, I find it unlikely that town has two protetictive roles. Either Cloud is mafia, and lying about his role (very easy to say you selfprotect each night, maybe even more so if Rand was told wich roles he could control from the beginning; he would probably be told Cop, Vig and Jailkeeper, so in other words fakeclaiming Doc would be seen as very safe). If he's mafia, I think Ley is town. If he's town, I think Ley is mafia. To me it makes sense that my role is there to mess with the watcher, especially since I'm compulsive; if I don't choose someone to visit by the end of night, someone will be chosen for me. It seems like a logical balance that I'm town visitor to mess with mafia watcher.

 

Talya sticks out on the VCs, she's been on every lynch. I saw BG just posted saying she might have started this to bus Rand and gain some town cred, and I agree with that to some extent. I don't like agreeing with BG since I don't trust him though lol. On the other hand, mafia didn't need to place any votes on each other yesterday; just on townies and then hope that at last one townie took the bait. My main beefs with her is that she doesn't read posts properly (so many incidents where she's clearly shown that), she spreads misinformation with her not reading stuff properly; it creates distractions and confusions.

 

Thing is with yesterdays votes nothing fits. Someone bussed someone. BG voted for Ley. If it was those two and Rand as mafia together; why would he do that? For the same reasons he says Talya voted Rand ofc; to get town cred. But mafia didn't need to bus yesterday like I already said; they just had to wait for one townie to place a vote on another townie, and then they could pounce on. The only one I'm timidly trusting now is Ithi; if she and Rand was teammates, placing a vote putting a teammate at L-2 was an even more weird move than placing the first vote on a teammate.

 

I'm giving myself a headache now, and I'm super hungry, so I'll be back after dinner to mull some more.

@ Mish. How do you know that someone bussed Rand? If you were Town then you wouldn't know that. For all you know everyone who Voted Rand could have been Town. There are at least 4 of us left at this time afterall.

[Ithillian Turambar]

 

 

Dap did

 

1. Chuckles

2. Len

3. Can't remember

4. Me

5. We don't know

 

@ BG - what do you mean "Cloud protected every night but last night" Besides I want him to answer

 

so on Day 4 there were 4 Town on Rand, no wonder Rand and BG jumped on the Ithi vote. the only we don't know is Ithi, on the Rand lynch that day...hmm so BG and Ithi left as mafia...or swap Ithi with Mish

I meant protected HIMSELF every night. My bad. That's been said a few times. And Ley said she watched... Cloud I believe.

I don't remember Ley posting today. He never said he Watched Cloud before. That was just one of the things that didn't make sense about his Role for me.

 

@BG do you know that Ley Watched Cloud?

[Ithillian Turambar]

And you conveniently turn up after the Hammer to say you would have voted for Rand.

 

You could have voted for Rand on that fateful day.

[bgrishinko]

And you conveniently turn up after the Hammer to say you would have voted for Rand.

 

You could have voted for Rand on that fateful day.

 

That's true and I regret it.

[bgrishinko]

 

 

Dap did

 

1. Chuckles

2. Len

3. Can't remember

4. Me

5. We don't know

 

@ BG - what do you mean "Cloud protected every night but last night" Besides I want him to answer

 

so on Day 4 there were 4 Town on Rand, no wonder Rand and BG jumped on the Ithi vote. the only we don't know is Ithi, on the Rand lynch that day...hmm so BG and Ithi left as mafia...or swap Ithi with Mish

I meant protected HIMSELF every night. My bad. That's been said a few times. And Ley said she watched... Cloud I believe.

I don't remember Ley posting today. He never said he Watched Cloud before. That was just one of the things that didn't make sense about his Role for me.

 

@BG do you know that Ley Watched Cloud?

 

 

 

Just looked back, it was Mish that said that she visited Cloud. I remembered wrong. 

[bgrishinko]

 

And you conveniently turn up after the Hammer to say you would have voted for Rand.

 

You could have voted for Rand on that fateful day.

 

That's true and I regret it.

 

 

Things have changed a lot since then. 

[michellem]

Yesterday we were 7 players left; Rand, BG, Talya, Ley, Ithi, Cloud, Mish. Someone must have been on Rand's team; to players probably (I cannot picture 3 mafias in an 18 player game) Here are the possible remaining teams and their actions:

 

BG & Talya - BG voted Ley, Talya voted Rand, Talya bused Rand

BG & Ley - BG voted Ley, Ley didn't vote, they were hoping no-one would follow on to Ley

BG & Ithi - BG voted Ley, Ithi voted Rand, Ithi bused Rand

BG & Cloud - BG voted Ley, Cloud voted Rand, Cloud bused Rand

BG & Mish - BG voted Ley, Mish voted Rand, Mish bused Rand

Talya & Ley - Talya voted Rand, Ley didn't vote, Talya bused Rand

Talya & Ithi - Talya voted Rand, Ithi voted Rand, both bused Rand

Talya & Cloud - Talya voted Rand, Cloud voted Rand, both bused Rand

Talya & Mish - Talya voted Rand, Mish voted Rand, both bused Rand

Ley & Cloud - Ley voted noone Cloud voted Rand, Cloud bused Rand

Ley & Ithi - Ley voted noone, Ithi voted Rand, Ithi bused Rand

Ley & Mish - Ley voted noone, Mish voted Rand, Mish bused Rand

Ithi & Cloud: Ithi voted Rand, Cloud voted Rand, both bused Rand

Ithi & Mish: Ithi voted Rand, Mish voted Rand, both bused Rand

Cloud & Mish: Cloud voted Rand, Mish voted Rand, both bused Rand.

 

Those are all the options of what happened yesterday. So unless BG&Ley is the mafia team, then someone bused Rand. That is also why I said someone bused someone; because of the BG/Ley option.

 

 

 

Also; no buddying, just logic. With the numbers as they were yesterday, it makes absolutley no sense for you to place Rand at L-2 if you were mafia together. Not even for town cred. The game could have been won for mafia yesterday.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Well then - maybe the Mafia team is BG and Ley and you just cracked the case @ Mish.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Of course once I posted the evidence of That Lynch and he started scrambling around with his Pretend Vote Idea - he was going down I think.

 

For me that makes Talya more likely to be Town. Plus I think she would be more careful with her posts and the information in them if she were Mafia.

 

Is the Votes that come after that are more suspicious. Who would want to be seen defending Rand at that point? No-one I think.

[michellem]

Ley just posted in the DM FB group that he's getting Cloudflared again.

 

Ithi, what do you think about the thoughts I posted about Cloud earlier?

[Ithillian Turambar]

I think that if he is Mafia I'm going to give him 20 points for getting away with something so outragious.

[_CLOUD]

Very confusing role. My only thing is that if he could control roles, it makes you wonder which roles as no one seems to have said anything. But then maybe he could direct the Serial killer to kill himself, otherwise who did protect Rand, if he wasn't a mirror. Or did they direct Cloud to? Have you been instructed at all Cloud? What about Ley, have you been directed? 

 

It might be that he could tell them what to do ie silence someone or tell them who to vote for. 

 

@Mish - as for hinting, I would have checked with Darthe what I could say and couldn't, just to make sure. I had this given to me one night in Deep Space 9 game and ask Basel what I could say and couldn't say. I managed it in such away that people guessed I had done it without hinting or anything. Where there is a will there is a way. I certainly would not come on here and make a case for someone then vote them, just so you didn't look mafia. As for your information being more important than roles, not at all. You wanted an excuse for saying why you went for Ed, why not just back up what you had said. Of course, it would depend on what exactly Rand's role is. But then you could have worked that our between you to try and make you look more town. 

 

@Cloud, - why didn't you go for Dap, I would have said he was a good bet last night. not that I don't appreciate the sentiment. however with the way things stand I think you only have a couple of shots at doc, seen as Dap was Doc/Roleblocker, and we had a limited cop and maybe have a watcher. 

 

As a thought, if Rands role was to direct the Cop and Doc, and they only had two shots (if cloud does too). Still doesn't explain Chuckles dying, unless cloud protected Rand?

 

No, I have not been directed or instructed at all. Like BG said, a Captain can only order other PR's around. I doubt that Rand could force someone to stay silent or order someone to vote for someone else. The one who gets targeted by the Captain always seems to have the option to refuse, so it should be quite obvious if you get targeted.

 

I didn't protect Dap last Night because I had my doubts regarding him being a JK. You seemed like a good option so I went with that.

 

 

 

I'm thinking that Dap being mentioned in Rand's death scene - being in his Squad - meant that Rand was his Captain.

 

That would explain why he was left alive so long, but then he maybe started disobeying orders AND wanting Rand dead. I guess they decided he wasn't so useful at that point.

 

Also Rands role means the Mirror was a Lie. So how did Chuckles end up Dead?

 

Did Captain Rand order Dap to JK him and then they NKd Chuckles - or do they have a Blocker of their own?

 

OR does the mention of Dap mean nothing and the Captain ordered Chuckles to shoot himself? He refused. Lost his Role for the Night and then they NKd him.

 

I think the first option is more likely - and with Chuckles out of the way they didn't need a stroppy Jailkeeper anymore causing trouble in the Day.

 

I also think that the first option is more likely. We need to keep in mind though that Rand only had 3 shots.

 

 

Yesterday we were 7 players left; Rand, BG, Talya, Ley, Ithi, Cloud, Mish. Someone must have been on Rand's team; to players probably (I cannot picture 3 mafias in an 18 player game) Here are the possible remaining teams and their actions:

 

BG & Talya - BG voted Ley, Talya voted Rand, Talya bused Rand

BG & Ley - BG voted Ley, Ley didn't vote, they were hoping no-one would follow on to Ley

BG & Ithi - BG voted Ley, Ithi voted Rand, Ithi bused Rand

BG & Cloud - BG voted Ley, Cloud voted Rand, Cloud bused Rand

BG & Mish - BG voted Ley, Mish voted Rand, Mish bused Rand

Talya & Ley - Talya voted Rand, Ley didn't vote, Talya bused Rand

Talya & Ithi - Talya voted Rand, Ithi voted Rand, both bused Rand

Talya & Cloud - Talya voted Rand, Cloud voted Rand, both bused Rand

Talya & Mish - Talya voted Rand, Mish voted Rand, both bused Rand

Ley & Cloud - Ley voted noone Cloud voted Rand, Cloud bused Rand

Ley & Ithi - Ley voted noone, Ithi voted Rand, Ithi bused Rand

Ley & Mish - Ley voted noone, Mish voted Rand, Mish bused Rand

Ithi & Cloud: Ithi voted Rand, Cloud voted Rand, both bused Rand

Ithi & Mish: Ithi voted Rand, Mish voted Rand, both bused Rand

Cloud & Mish: Cloud voted Rand, Mish voted Rand, both bused Rand.

 

Those are all the options of what happened yesterday. So unless BG&Ley is the mafia team, then someone bused Rand. That is also why I said someone bused someone; because of the BG/Ley option.

 

 

 

Also; no buddying, just logic. With the numbers as they were yesterday, it makes absolutley no sense for you to place Rand at L-2 if you were mafia together. Not even for town cred. The game could have been won for mafia yesterday.

 

This is an impressive list, but it doesn't really show anything other than the chance of someone bussing Rand is higher than BG & Ley being mafia. 

 

I think that if he is Mafia I'm going to give him 20 points for getting away with something so outragious.

 

Well, I guess you can keep those 20 points in your pocket because I'm town.

[michellem]

I made the list in response to Ithi questioning how I "knew" someone was bused yesterday. It shows that no matter who is mafia, someone got bused. She doubted my sentence; I proved it. And it also shows us all the options that we need to look at, because those are all the available combinations of a team. It will be easier in the morning, if a NK goes through, because it will strike a lot of options.

[_CLOUD]

I made the list in response to Ithi questioning how I "knew" someone was bused yesterday. It shows that no matter who is mafia, someone got bused. She doubted my sentence; I proved it. And it also shows us all the options that we need to look at, because those are all the available combinations of a team. It will be easier in the morning, if a NK goes through, because it will strike a lot of options.

 

That is indeed a smart move, I haven't thought about it myself. We need to watch out that we don't base tomorrow's lynch of only statistics though.

[Ithillian Turambar]

 

 

 

 

And you conveniently turn up after the Hammer to say you would have voted for Rand.

 

You could have voted for Rand on that fateful day.

That's true and I regret it.

Things have changed a lot since then.

These are nice ambiguous statements. One could perhaps say that you regret that the absence of Mafia on Rand's failed Lynch actually caused him to get Lynched this time AND has caused you to look pretty bad in moving for the Ithi Lynch attempt instead.

 

Mish - your own logic test shows that BG & Leyrann could be Mafia. Why don't you see that as a likely possibility?

 

And don't everyone throw a mental - but didn't Leyrann get Cloudflared just after he nearly got voted for last time? Avoidance of the Game is justifiable play if it means you get asked less questions - and he did make it quite clear that lying would be acceptable if it was done to protect himself or his team.

 

And if I think he is Mafia, which I do, then I am ok to mention this. As he did when he said I used my never ending English Cold as a means to defend myself.

[michellem]

Ithi where have I said it was unlikely for them to be mafia together?

[michellem]

I just sent in my action.

[_CLOUD]

Those are all the options of what happened yesterday. So unless BG&Ley is the mafia team, then someone bused Rand. That is also why I said someone bused someone; because of the BG/Ley option.

 

You seem to find the BG/Ley option not really likely as seen in this quote.