how the Senchean beat the Aial (avienda vision) ???

[elric]

personally i cant c a way the Aial could lose .

 

they have 2 superweapon on their disposel which should be more then enough to crush the senchean.

 

1. Dream world.

 

dream walking give u unparalel spying capabilities and that without going the practical way of entering it for travel, or pulling someone into it fro compeling/assasination ,untrained Agy use minor compelling on Nyn (the lieing thing) imagine what an experience dream walker can do

 

2. Linking

 

the Senchean nature of controlling Channeler prevent linking.

grab 3 male channeler create a circle of 39 and start NUKING.

create 2 such circle -> 1 creating a shield the other NUKE

i cant c x number of channeler withstanding a circle of x member.

 

also u can create waves that desined to open Adam and release them in the battlefield... and circle powered wave like that will be very hard if not impossible to stop and even if the released Damana wont turn on the Senchean they will simply frease till recollared.

 

it seem to me that the Aial must have a really bad military leadership to loose to the senchean.

[Whizbang]

I agree. When reading Avi's "future", I was surprised by this. Wise Ones know how to link now (they didn't before), and so could form circles of at least 13. Add in the fact that Randlanders would side with the Aiel (for the most part) and you get the WT and BT helping out, adding to linking, but also knowledge of the OP in general. As shown by Alivia, Seanchan channelers only know battle weaves, and even then only know how to blow things up in a general way. Take a look at what happened in the WT with Egwene. Circles of Aes Sedai/novices made the difference.

 

The only way I see Seanchan winning is because they come from a country that covers a whole continent, whereas on this side of the ocean, countries have been fighting since Artur Hawkwing and are only unified (a little) at the point of the sword. They have a lot of people, and have been combing the population for channelers for some time. Randlanders have only recently been searching for channelers in a proactive manner. So, Seanchan have the numbers on their side. They can just send in legion after legion of troops and Damane until the Randlanders wear themselves out. So it would be Aiel + Channelers + a few other armies vs a country/continent of a very militaristic people.

 

But, as noted in the books, the Seanchan's backbone of strength is the Damane. Nuetralize them, and they become much less effective. Have circles target Damane one at a time, and you can quickly turn the battle in your favor.

[Kamin_Majere]

The Seanchan win due to adaptability. The Aiel don't have this. The Seanchan lose a battle and instead of trying the same thing again or throwing a hissy fit, adapt to never lose that way again.

 

Its like Rand discussing the Seanchan vs the Great Captains. While the 5 Great Captains are all known for their adaptability and cunning, the seanchan military as a whole use this very same method. So while its possible to beat them in battle it is next to impossible to beat them at war itself.

 

The Aiel have one way of fighting and it is generally superior to everyone elses, but as Lan showed Rand there are ways to deal with Aiel Tactics, and Rhuarc agreed with him. Its hard to do, but with enough quick acting and a strong core to the force it is possible. The Seanchan would quickly learn this through engagements and would start deploying it. The problem with Aiel is after fighting a certain way for so long its going to be harder for them to come up with new tactics to deal with the sudden turn in fortune.

 

As to the seanchan channelers vs wise ones... the seanchan channelers are living weapons. While the wise ones have the ability to link now they are far from weapons. They view channeling as something extra and not their true strength and have never really focused on it while the damene have had centuries to perfect the act of killing with the power.

 

The initial fighting would be like this

Channeler vs Channeler would favor the Seanchan greatly

Soldier vs Soldier would favor the Aiel greatly

 

the problem comes from the next stage. Every initial channeler victory culls the wise ones (either with death or with collaring) and the soldier vs soldier kills people but allows the seanchan to learn the Aiel battle tactics.

 

the next set of battles

Channeler vs Channeler would favor the Seanshan (not to as large a degree as now the wise ones would realize that they need to get actively involved or they will all be killed or collared)

Soldier vs Soldier would be nearly even

 

the next

Channeler vs Channeler would be nearly even

Soldier vs Soldier would favor the Seanchan Greatly

 

At this point the Aiel have lost a great deal of spears and a good many wise ones, while the seanchan will have fresh bodies to replace those and have added the Aiels own wise ones to its channeler stock. So by the time the Aiel would theoretically gain the upper hand with channelers its almost to late to matter. This is where they make the folley of trying to get the other nations to join the battle. Which allows the Seanchan to crush Andor and take the Dragons and other technology. Once this happens the war is all but over. With the seanchan having a whole continent worth of recruits to pull from and their ability to adapt to situations and intergrate new things and technology its only a matter of time before they bring all of the other nations to heel.

 

Keep in mind this is overly simplistic for a war that went on for 30+ years, but it looks pretty inevitable that the seanchan will gobble up all of Randland if allowed half a chance. Remember having channelers free to do as they pleased didnt save the "armies of the night" in seanchan so why would it save the unleashed ones in Randland.

[elric]

army of night i think didnt took Sanchean seriously till it was to late.

the Adam collaring was new thing then.

and we dobt know the mentality of the army of night (startreck 1st meeting with borg jump to my mind -> let do confrance in mid fight :)) ). as far as we know the army of night could been peace loving follower of the leaf :)))

 

and u forget the Ashaman.

 

not just their leaving wepon training, but the uber linking they provide.

 

imagine the destruction a 39 ppl cycle (who can be leaded by Ashaman) can couse on a battlefield

[Mr Ares]

Linking is an advantage, but not a massive one. It essentially makes the difference between one big channeler and lots of little ones. While you can use big circles to pick off individual channelers, those same channelers can fight back by killing off members of the circle - who only contribute strength, they have no actual capability to channel. So lots of individuals can be more reactive, and are also less likely to be a big waste of power. Big circles provide big hammer blows - this can be countered by spreading forces out to render hammer blows ineffective. Much as the Seanchan did to counter Rand in PoD. Also, the damane are more experienced in fighting with the OP, and the Seanchan can replace losses by making Wise Ones damane. While the WO do have Dreamwalkers, they don't have many, and those women are also channelers - and thus potential damane if captured. So the Aiel have two minor advantages. No way can you crush the Seanchan with just those.

 

The Seanchan advantages include a better ability to replace losses, more experience with this type of fighting, institutionalised adaptability, to a greater extent than the Aiel (though they are not themselves lacking in adaptability, as the books make clear), an air force, probably other things as well. There's really no reason to conclude that the Seanchan can't win - it's simply the most likely outcome.

[Kamin_Majere]

The army of the night also didnt have to deal with leashed ones until they started to lose their own either. As you said it was a new thing that really didnt take place until around them.

And yes they could have been followers of the way of the leaf or something and were in truth pushovers (history is written by the victors afterall) but i somehow doubt it.

 

But surprising that you mention borg... i tend to think of the Seanchan a lot like them. Kind of an unstoppable Juggernaut.

 

And no I didnt forget the Ashamen, they come in later after the Aiel were beaten back far enough that they had to use lies to get andor into the fray. Unfortunately by this time the seanchan would have taken most of the wise ones and leashed them if the Aiel were beaten this much. So you have the seanchan channelers backed up with the 2nd largest group of female channelers as well to deal with. Added to this problem things like the cannons and the ashamen arent going to fair to well in the long haul.

 

As to the 39 person circle of doom... its certainly powerful and destructive... but now you have 39 people only able to direct a single set of flows. Where the seanshan will have 19 sets of sul'dam and leashed ones. Raw power is good for a lot of things in a battle field but i think typically 19 sets of flows would be more effective generally. The 39 would tend to batter aside the flows of the 19 pretty easily, but then you have to figure out how many weaves could the controller handle. Eggy was impressive with handling a dozen and i'm not sure more power = more weaves (though i'm unsure of the point as i dont remember it ever being discussed)

 

edit:

ninja'ed by Mr Ares on the circle of 39 vs lots of individuals :)

[MasterAblar]

I imagine part of the problem is that whereas the Seanchan are united the nations of Randland and the Aiel are not. The Aiel alone would be defeated. However should they ally immediately with all the nations, as well as the Aes Sedai, the Asha'man and the Sea Folk, I think the Seanchan would be hard pressed. If the great captains are still alive, then I have a hard time seeing the Seanchan coming out on top, considering what Ituralde and Mat did to them. And the allied nations would have the advantage of male channellers, at least at first until the Seanchan can find a way to collar them as well. In Aviendha's vision the Aiel fought alone at first and only later called in the other nations to help. By then it was too late.

[elric]

think about 2 circle of 39.

 

1 create a shield like in Domei Well or the shield Cad created in the cleansing.

and the other rein destruction.

 

now imagine multiiple combo like that. (and 39 is just arbitrary numbert it can be 13 or 26 or 78).

 

add to it cucle like that xan create BOT saidin and saider Damana cant c /react to saidin....

if i recall correcvtly u can create dustruction wave and tie them so that go work in automatic mode -> imagine such weave created by a cycle.

[MasterAblar]

think about 2 circle of 39.

 

1 create a shield like in Domei Well or the shield Cad created in the cleansing.

and the other rein destruction.

 

The Forsaken only knew where Rand and Nyneave were located through the use of saiding and saidar. They couldn't see them. Essentially all they could send was lightning. Once they get close enough that they can see them, they can get more creative with their attacks, so that the shield won't block them. Having two circles of 39 doesn't resolves the problem since you still only have 1 person forming weaves. If that person can't answer all incoming attacks, then all the others are vulnerable. It would be far better to have a large cirle protected by numerous individual channellers or maybe small circles of 2, 3, or 4 each.

[Barid Bel Medar]

The link is good for individual battles, but channelers still tire, and they cannot see everything.

 

There are plenty of tactics for dealing with what you suggested.

 

Just off the top of my head, Gateway inside of the "dome" and send through men to kill the linked women. They cannot react if they are keeping the shield up, and the 30 or so others in the link are virtually defenceless.

 

There are 3 Dreamwalkers currently with the Aiel, one is pretty much on her last legs (sorry Bair) so that is a possibility of two Dreamwalkers. They are not likely to act as assassins, they think that kind of thing is evil. Even if they did, it is a minor advantage in any case.

 

Note: The a'dam was created after Luthair secured Seanchan.

 

Another thing to note is that while Mat/Ituralde have won battles, they eventually end up losing. Ituralde gets a pardon via Rand and Mat wasn't planning on fighting them, but breaking through and bailing. Plus, these forces were not Seanchan regulars, they consisted of a lot of converted armies.

 

Then there is the fact that the Seanchan on this side of the ocean are a mere fraction of the total forces that Seanchan can offer. The Seanchan continent is massive, much bigger than Randland, perhaps as much as 3 times. They can produce at least 10x the number of soldiers and channellers that the entire united continent can offer.

 

Considering that the Outrigger was supposed to be Mat and Tuon consolidating the Seanchan continent, I am going to assume at some point, they have access to their full power back, most likely before the war even starts. With Gateways, they can be called upon almost instantly.

 

So we have an unstoppable machine. A circle of 70 odd could hold the Seanchan at bay and kill many, but they will get tired, and the Seanchan will just keep coming.

 

The number of damane is 10x the number of channelers, all weapons exclusively. The sheer number of them sets off the linking advantage.

 

Now don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it would be a cake-walk. The White and Black Towers resist for 50+ years before falling. But in a protracted war, the nations of the westlands could not defeat the Seanchan.

 

The only possibility would be a united westlands and Shara. Even then it would be an even fight.

[MasterAblar]

Another thing to note is that while Mat/Ituralde have won battles, they eventually end up losing. Ituralde gets a pardon via Rand and Mat wasn't planning on fighting them, but breaking through and bailing. Plus, these forces were not Seanchan regulars, they consisted of a lot of converted armies.

 

The commanders on the other hand were Seanchan and in both Mat and Ituralde's campaigns it was first and foremost the commanders who were bested. Even with great soldiers, I don't see how the Seanchan commander could have turned things around against Ituralde. And against Mat if I recall the Seanchan officer Karede spoke to said the Altarans fought well.

 

Then there is the fact that the Seanchan on this side of the ocean are a mere fraction of the total forces that Seanchan can offer. The Seanchan continent is massive, much bigger than Randland, perhaps as much as 3 times. They can produce at least 10x the number of soldiers and channellers that the entire united continent can offer.

 

That's true if you bring in the Seanchan continent things get way more complicated for Randland.

[elric]

the Senchean is VERY centerise society -> kill the royal family and it will turn into a bloody civil war.

few well placed assasination can destroy a generation of senchean.

 

even if a cycle of 78 or 91 can hold only 1/10 of the power Rend and Nyn hold in the cleansing -> imagine the sheer destruction it can do, it literally the equivalent of a clean nuke.

let senchean gathwer their army -> level it and then start exterminating their forces.

create a wave that open Adams , tie it and sent it on auto into the senchean continent.

create storms that preventt flying and tie it.

78 or even 7800 singular channeler cant unwave/counter a 78 strong cycle wave.(couse they cant matched it streangth and their individual streangth dont add up).

think battlefielfd enchantment, global enchantment.

think Tsunamy cause by a 78+ cycle washing over Senchean. (a bit evil no argue but it can work)

[Barid Bel Medar]

Another thing to note is that while Mat/Ituralde have won battles, they eventually end up losing. Ituralde gets a pardon via Rand and Mat wasn't planning on fighting them, but breaking through and bailing. Plus, these forces were not Seanchan regulars, they consisted of a lot of converted armies.

 

The commanders on the other hand were Seanchan and in both Mat and Ituralde's campaigns it was first and foremost the commanders who were bested. Even with great soldiers, I don't see how the Seanchan commander could have turned things around against Ituralde. And against Mat if I recall the Seanchan officer Karede spoke to said the Altarans fought well.

 

 

You are quite right, I am not suggesting that the randland people will be wet blankets and lose every battle.

 

However, something to note about those two campagins, neither of the commanders were that noteable. Mat and Ituralde are two of 6 of the greatest known.

 

Plus the fact that they adapted to Ituralde and he eventually lost, even him as one of the 5.

 

 

Mat didn't lose, but he wasn't engaged in all out war. I think he could probably fend the Seanchan off the longest of anyone, but I doubt he will play much part post-TG. In the vision in question, at least, he wasn't involved.

 

 

@ Elric : those things are good in theory, but in war it seldom works that smoothly

 

With Gateways, surround the circle on all sides and avoid attack.

 

Why, they could simply open Deathgates in the middle of the circle and rip them to shreds with their focus on destroying.

 

You could fight long-distance fights, have your damane on the Seanchan continent. Open up Gateways and bombard the enemy, then close them before retaliation.

 

An arrow to the face will kill the greatest channeller just as well as any man or woman.

 

Have 20 Gateways open simultaneously surrounding the Circle and launch volleys of arrows, crossbow bolts or fireballs through at the enemy, quickly closing them before they can counter. Repeat that a few times and you have a circle of dead channellers.

 

That is just off the top of my head, a military strategist could come up with hundreds of other plans to counter a circle.

 

Point being, there are thousands of strategies and counter-strategies. It is not as simple as brute strength and killing a heap of people with the power.

[BKVMC]

If i recall correctly after the Dragon was gone the Aiel seemed to go back to a clan based nation and not acting as a group like they are with Rand at the moment and also Didnt it show the seanchan developed Guns while the aiel were still knife spear and bow fighting? as to the Number of wise ones left who can channel after the last battle i imagine it will be quite a bit less than they have now.

[Entreri]

The problem with the Aiel is that they do not adapt well. The Seanchan are the greatest adaptors.

 

Aiel should have used TAR crazy, but they did not. Aiel honor at work. Assissinating or driving Senachan leaders would have been crippling.

 

Once the weak Wetlanders came into the fight, the Seanchan very easily defeated them made their women damane = all over for the Aiel;

[elric]

good points Barid

 

but my main point is this:

u can tie weave so thet they keep working on auto mode.

a weave woven by a circle cant be undone by a solo channeler.

 

every weave u mention i believe can be counter by a defensive pre casted weave who can be counter by a wave that can be counter and so on and so on....

but in the end the Sanchean weave can be undone, while a cycle weave cant be.

and i precieve that not only as a VERY major advantage, but as DECISIVE advantage which if use properly cant garentee a win.

[Kamin_Majere]

The biggest thing you are missing elric is the fact that the aiel (or anyone else in Randland for that matter) cant do this and honestly dont know how.

 

We are armchair quarterbacking to use an apt term. Its easy to come up with 10,000 ways in which the one power could be used, but no one "in the books" knows how to do any of those.

 

In the end you would have an insanely large circle basically putting up the same wind/spirit screen they always have and tossing the same fireballs they always have just at a greatly magnified level.

 

Thats why the seanchan are so unstoppable in in the books. If they see something works (for or against them) they adapt to it while all of the others don't really. Aiel pound for pound are the best warriors in the world that we know of, bt it comes from their determination and dedication to the form of battle they prefer. The seanchan will initially be devastated by this but will quickly adapt and then destroy them.

[elric]

Aial and WT have learning pact

 

Aial and Sea falk have a learning pact

 

there no current pact with BT but i dont c why there wont be 1 as the senchean is a threat to EVERY CHANNELER.

 

i agrea it easy to be armchair quarterback (altough as basketball fan i prefare playmaker [go levron go :)) ] ) but so far in the book the Aial been portrait as very adaptable, quick to learn and apply ppl/society.

so i would expected them to percieve and use their (atleast to me) OBVIOUS advantages.

[rand4747]

Actually, any tied off weave can be undone with enough skill, they can be untied, however a circle that is holding the weave it can't be.

[stillwill]

They wouldnt need the BT to go past circles of 13, one of the POVs (Padra or her daugher, cant remember) mentioned the "Dragon Blooded" who along with the wise ones channeled in battle against the Seanchan. Im assuming the Dragonblooded were Aiel men who can channel

[jsbrads]

I think the most effective attack against a circle of channelers would be a cannon with an explosive round and a gateway

[MasterAblar]

They wouldnt need the BT to go past circles of 13, one of the POVs (Padra or her daugher, cant remember) mentioned the "Dragon Blooded" who along with the wise ones channeled in battle against the Seanchan. Im assuming the Dragonblooded were Aiel men who can channel

 

Who teaches the Aiel men to channel?

[Kamin_Majere]

Who teaches the Aiel men to channel?

 

Their new sul'dam masters

(sorry couldnt resist)

[avernite]

The most effective weapon against the Seanchan would probably be 'open gateway over ebou dar, throw loads of fireballs/earthquakes, repeat over other cities.

 

Seanchan is an ordered and fairly centralised society. The Aiel can splinter right back if they need to. Blast Seanchan cities from afar and see the realm collapse, unless they learn warding from the Forsaken.

[elric]

on Abu Dar and on the Crystal Thorn.

 

hit the centers in both continents.