Demandred: Have we been searching in the wrong haystack?

[fionwe1987]

One of the big questions leading into aMoL is what Demandred has been up to. Most importantly, we're all curious to know what alter ego Demandred has adopted.

 

Now, it has been made clear that there is such an alter ego. What this alter ego gets up to is almost certainly not the entirety of Demandred's actions in the past 13 books. By all accounts, what he has been up to is massively important. And given that he likes to work with proxies a lot, its very likely that Demandred has his fingers on many pies.

 

Now, with respect to the alter ego, via some pretty solid elimination and fact checking, Roedran has emerged as a very strong candidate. In fact, he seems to be the only candidate. And if this does turn out to be true, I think I can live with it based on how Roedran ends up acting in Merrilor.

 

That said though... I have some questions about the way we go about looking for his alter ego:

 

1) Do we have any guarantee he has replaced/killed the original person he's impersonating (if he's impersonating someone in the first place), or could his alter ego actually be someone still alive? To compare: Mesaana replaced Danelle, and Lanfear impersonated Else Grinwell. We can be fairly certain the real Danelle was killed. Else was just sent packing. In contrast, Lord Brend, Anath, Gaebril, etc. never really existed. They were created personalities.

But the most important alter ego we have is Semirhage playing Tuon. That was a case of a Foresaken playing a well known person when that person couldn't come around and spoil the impersonation. Keep in mind that Demandred and Semirhage had an alliance, and Mesaana was in it and some of their strategies and plans were aimed at a common goal (we can presume a Seanchan attack of the WT was one).

With this being the case, what's to stop Demandred from impersonating... Rand al'Thor? We already knew the Shadow in tSR had plans to substitute Taim as the Dragon. What if Demandred took it a step further? What if he's playing Rand in Shara? Technically, we've never seen this alter ego on screen. But by WH we had the throwaway line that there was war in Shara over Rand being the DR.

One thing that indicates is that word of Rand, and even his description may have reached Shara. What if they were led to believe that "Rand" had come to unite them and lead them in the LB? After all, they were thrown into chaos by the disappearance of their rulers. Isn't that an excellent situation for Demandred to mine? And conveniently, Sharamen have very little contact with the outside world, are known as liars, and in general wouldn't be believed much if they claimed the Dragon had visited their land. Even if they did, the Dragon can Travel, and who knows what plans he has?

Now, Demandred can do two things. He could try to use his impersonation to recruit DFs, espectially channelers, and DF armies. But it would be much more intelligent to perpetrate atrocities in the name of Rand al'Thor (again, this hearkens back to the plan to have Taim do this, in tSR). Demandred could have taken over the rule of some or part of Shara, and he could use his authority and power as the Dragon to send some channelers to be turned, who would then help him spread a wave of destruction. The end goal would be to enrage the populace against the Dragon enough that they would decide to attack his home country, timed to be concurrent with massive Trolloc attacks on Randland too.

 

2) Do we have to assume that Demandred's alter ego is a man? This is something I'm less sure of, but do we know important women who've been offscreen, and could conceivably have been replaced by Demandred? This would make for a very interesting turn of events, and could totally be a surprise when revealed. But there isn't much going for it that would allow RJ to say we should be able to figure it out.

[MarkDiLillo]

Roedran was mentioned too many times in chapter 1 (which also focused on Demandred) for it to be coincidence.

[What's a Seawolf?]

Although I'd say the odds are heavily in the favor of Roedran as far as impersonations go, I love the idea of Demandred impersonating Rand and pretending to be the Dragon.

[fionwe1987]

Roedran was mentioned too many times in chapter 1 (which also focused on Demandred) for it to be coincidence.

It could simply be a distraction for the readers. Not the most highly likely scenario, but not impossible.

 

Alternatively, Roedran could be one of Demandred's proxies in the south. He may be a DF, or compelled.

 

Its also clear that some part of Demandred's job brought him close enough to Rand that Aran'gar could say straight out that he was responsible for keeping watch on Rand. Roedran doesn't quite explain that quote.

[Barid Bel Medar]

I think it could be a red-herring. It is something I could see happening.

 

Brandon knows the fans theories about Demandred, and would likely play on it.

 

It has already happened in tGS/ToM

 

Graendal thinks that he could be with the Borderlanders, then when Rand meets them, we get a brief moment of uncertainty with the prophecy that involves Demandred.

 

In fact, it was Patir himself who was mostly involved. Even though it has been debunked, Brandon did comment that he thought Patir was a common Demandred theory.

 

I always felt like the whole hinting at Borderlands with Graendal and the tension with Patir and when Rand gets anxious about something he and Demandred would know was a little tribute/tension ploy.

 

Who has a prophecy that mentions someone by name specifically anyway?

 

Roedran seems most obvious conclusion, but chapter 1 didn't seem like he was Demandred. Getting angry at needing a Gateway? Wanting to be there so as not to be left out? (an assumption, yeah, but still).

 

It seems silly that Demandred would turn up at the FoM in the first place. (Although it could mean something really awesome. One of the Forsaken rocking up in the middle of Team Light and creating a crapstorm.)

 

A proxy would be much more fitting with the comment about him liking proxies and the fact that he thinks Generals should not have to fight alongside soldiers.

 

Sending Roedran (DF or compelled) to stir up crap while he manoeuvres his other armies (possibly Shara) would be much more fitting.

 

And, IIRC, being able to figure out his alter ego doesn't necessarily mean figuring out the name of that person, or a named character that we have heard about. Alter ego being the Dragon Reborn in Shara fills that requirement, I think. We learn most about Shara and the in-fighting before WH.

[FanoLan]

Greetings all - finally relented and purchased the Prologue, having read Chapter 1 previously. Jumping in to add another potential clue in favor of Roedran as a Demo-prox^TM . Moridin assigned Moghedien to Demandred in order to supervise one of Dem's armies. Appropriately, Nyn is camped out in the center of FoM awaiting the big meet. With her newfound semi-freedom and un-fulfilled desire to snuff Nyn, Mog appears likely for another go-your-own-way screw-up of the first magnitude after arriving at FoM with Roedran under her close supervision. Sort of a reprisal of her earlier role as shining Dragon for Masema.

[Barid Bel Medar]

Greetings! Excellent, I hope you enjoyed.

 

Wouldn't that be a point against Roemandred?

 

Moghedien is supposed to be supervising an unsupervised army. She wouldn't likely be in the same place as Demandred.

 

More likely she is at Caemlyn, and will screw Nynaeve over there.

[FanoLan]

Greetings! Excellent, I hope you enjoyed.

 

Wouldn't that be a point against Roemandred?

 

Moghedien is supposed to be supervising an unsupervised army. She wouldn't likely be in the same place as Demandred.

 

More likely she is at Caemlyn, and will screw Nynaeve over there.

 

Well, the multi-tasking Demo seems the most likely answer to me. His nefarious activities included coopting the King of Murandy but was not his sole focus. Not even his most ambitious plot since Mog has been tasked to see it through the next phase while Dem will personally supervise elsewhere. At least, that's my take at the end of Ch. 1 ; )

[Barid Bel Medar]

Ahhhh, sorry, I didn't notice the proxy bit at the end of Demandred. My bad. IN that case, I agree that it is a possibility.

[Mr Hindley]

This spin on Demandred being involved in Shara by impersonating Rand is definitely an interesting one, and not one I've heard before. One argument against, though - wouldn't the Sharans have to come through the Waste..? Makes a sneak attack a little unlikely, unless Demandred has also somehow taught them travelling - or offered to 'help' them get there, a bit like what Sammael did with the Shaido and the foolboxes.

[Barid Bel Medar]

This spin on Demandred being involved in Shara by impersonating Rand is definitely an interesting one, and not one I've heard before. One argument against, though - wouldn't the Sharans have to come through the Waste..? Makes a sneak attack a little unlikely, unless Demandred has also somehow taught them travelling - or offered to 'help' them get there, a bit like what Sammael did with the Shaido and the foolboxes.

 

Who needs a sneak attack if you have Shara?

 

There are other options for travel.

 

As you said, Travelling.

 

Going through the Blight.

 

Ships (red-sails?)

 

I imagine a bunch of Sharan ships taking Tear would constitute a surprise attack.

[MountaineerWV]

I like the idea of Demandred masquerading as Rand in Shara. I don't really agree with it, but great idea!

 

Ships (red-sails?)

 

I imagine a bunch of Sharan ships taking Tear would constitute a surprise attack.

 

I've never liked the Demandred putting together armies/navies in Seanchan, Shara, and LotMM. Logistics are working against him. I wish I had the exact quote, but it took like 300 years for the Seanchan to plan, train, and outfit their troops to return to Randland. No way that a huge navy would all the sudden be developed over the course of two years in secret on the other continents.

 

What armies do we know of that currently seem to lack a general?

1.Caemylan's Trollocs

2. Murandy

3. Tarwin's Gap Trollocs

4. Red sailed ships in/Murder in Seanchan

5. Random people deciding to travel North

6. Red Veiled Aiel

[Neophyte]

I wish I had the exact quote, but it took like 300 years for the Seanchan to plan, train, and outfit their troops to return to Randland.

 

The idea of a single campaign like the Return taking 300, or 100, or even 50 years of sustained effort to plan, train for, and execute is a logistical absurdity, no matter who said/wrote it.

 

If Demandred is working in Shara (and we certainly don't know whether he is or not) then unless he's an idiot he would have taken over the existing instruments of power (the Ayyad) and so could have turned the resources of Shara in most any direction he wished well within the two years or so that we've had in the books. The Ayyad has always struck me as an organization ripe for Darkfriends anyway. The Sharans are not Shadowspawn - gateways will work perfectly fine for them, so transport is not an issue either.

[MountaineerWV]

I wish I had the exact quote, but it took like 300 years for the Seanchan to plan, train, and outfit their troops to return to Randland.

 

The idea of a single campaign like the Return taking 300, or 100, or even 50 years of sustained effort to plan, train for, and execute is a logistical absurdity, no matter who said/wrote it.

 

Why?

 

The Seanchan had multiple rebellions, some quite large. They needed ways to move massive amounts of troops throughout their empire, which is probably 3x or 4x the size of Randland. That would require ships, which if properly maintained can last hundreds of years. Fighting rebels is a form of training.

 

So while it may not have been an explicit plan that putting down a rebellion and building transportation to said rebellion was being done to further the Return, the effect is the same.

 

If Demandred is working in Shara (and we certainly don't know whether he is or not) then unless he's an idiot he would have taken over the existing instruments of power (the Ayyad) and so could have turned the resources of Shara in most any direction he wished well within the two years or so that we've had in the books. The Ayyad has always struck me as an organization ripe for Darkfriends anyway. The Sharans are not Shadowspawn - gateways will work perfectly fine for them, so transport is not an issue either.

 

Very true and it will piss me off if all the sudden a huge Army from Shara or LotMM pop out of a Gateway and begin laying siege to various nations.

[driedraspberry]

That would be crazy awesome. Although I'd imagine Dem thoroughly hates himself for impersonating a LTT reincarnation.

[Neophyte]

The idea of a single campaign like the Return taking 300, or 100, or even 50 years of sustained effort to plan, train for, and execute is a logistical absurdity, no matter who said/wrote it.

 

Why?

 

The Seanchan had multiple rebellions, some quite large. They needed ways to move massive amounts of troops throughout their empire, which is probably 3x or 4x the size of Randland. That would require ships, which if properly maintained can last hundreds of years. Fighting rebels is a form of training.

 

So while it may not have been an explicit plan that putting down a rebellion and building transportation to said rebellion was being done to further the Return, the effect is the same.

 

Because unified logistical operations just don't span generations, and it wouldn't take that much time to do it anyway, given the resources of an Empire the size of Seanchan.

 

Let me give you an example. You say that "Fighting rebels is a form of training." That is perfectly true - but soldiers trained fighting a rebellion three hundred years ago don't help a current operation, unless you're saying that tactics developed historically help in the present situation. In that case all of history is a preparation for every single logistical operation, so either way it is silly to pinpoint some date 300 years ago as part of your "current" preparations. Either it was over and done before the current preparations began, or it is just another part of history, and so isn't specifically tied to the current endeavor.

[shadowofomioc]

The only thing that, I do not think anyway, that has been mentioned is the Ogier. Who knows? He could have turned some of them to the shadow and made a grand army full of violent and dark Ogier. That would be a site to see on the battlefield!

 

Hey, anything is possible with the Forsaken.

[Durinax]

I wish I had the exact quote, but it took like 300 years for the Seanchan to plan, train, and outfit their troops to return to Randland.

 

The idea of a single campaign like the Return taking 300, or 100, or even 50 years of sustained effort to plan, train for, and execute is a logistical absurdity, no matter who said/wrote it.

 

Why?

 

The Seanchan had multiple rebellions, some quite large. They needed ways to move massive amounts of troops throughout their empire, which is probably 3x or 4x the size of Randland. That would require ships, which if properly maintained can last hundreds of years. Fighting rebels is a form of training.

 

So while it may not have been an explicit plan that putting down a rebellion and building transportation to said rebellion was being done to further the Return, the effect is the same.

 

If Demandred is working in Shara (and we certainly don't know whether he is or not) then unless he's an idiot he would have taken over the existing instruments of power (the Ayyad) and so could have turned the resources of Shara in most any direction he wished well within the two years or so that we've had in the books. The Ayyad has always struck me as an organization ripe for Darkfriends anyway. The Sharans are not Shadowspawn - gateways will work perfectly fine for them, so transport is not an issue either.

 

Very true and it will piss me off if all the sudden a huge Army from Shara or LotMM pop out of a Gateway and begin laying siege to various nations.

yes but Shara is embroiled in civil strife after Graendal took the two leaders to use a dupes. Making the logistics much harder

[Agravayne]

Directly impersonating Rand Al'Thor is somewhat dangerous. After all, if the real Rand Al'Thor makes an appearance, then all you've done is raised another army for him.

 

Controlling or impersonating someone that in turn holds the loyalty of the Sharans or the Murandians, for example, is much much safer.

[Amandera]

Isn't the Pattern supposed to stop further false Dragons? I would think that expands to someone impersonating Rand and claiming he is the DR as well.

[salmidach]

There is no way Demandred would impersonate Rand!

 

Demandred despised LTT and feels way too superior to impersonate Rand.

[Neophyte]

I wish I had the exact quote, but it took like 300 years for the Seanchan to plan, train, and outfit their troops to return to Randland.

 

The idea of a single campaign like the Return taking 300, or 100, or even 50 years of sustained effort to plan, train for, and execute is a logistical absurdity, no matter who said/wrote it.

 

Why?

 

The Seanchan had multiple rebellions, some quite large. They needed ways to move massive amounts of troops throughout their empire, which is probably 3x or 4x the size of Randland. That would require ships, which if properly maintained can last hundreds of years. Fighting rebels is a form of training.

 

So while it may not have been an explicit plan that putting down a rebellion and building transportation to said rebellion was being done to further the Return, the effect is the same.

 

If Demandred is working in Shara (and we certainly don't know whether he is or not) then unless he's an idiot he would have taken over the existing instruments of power (the Ayyad) and so could have turned the resources of Shara in most any direction he wished well within the two years or so that we've had in the books. The Ayyad has always struck me as an organization ripe for Darkfriends anyway. The Sharans are not Shadowspawn - gateways will work perfectly fine for them, so transport is not an issue either.

 

Very true and it will piss me off if all the sudden a huge Army from Shara or LotMM pop out of a Gateway and begin laying siege to various nations.

yes but Shara is embroiled in civil strife after Graendal took the two leaders to use a dupes. Making the logistics much harder

 

There are rumors of such strife. They could as easily be the mask for Demandred taking over.

[shadowofomioc]

Yeah, I thought in Chapter 1 Rand is pretty much for sure that Demandred is the one behind the attack on Caemlyn. To break up this meeting, to divide the forces 1 at a time and take them out as they are weaker, etc.

 

Oldest trick in the book indeed. Rand isn't falling for it, but I'm sure someone will.

 

And then you have a new Chosen in Taim. Something tells me Taim is going to cause some major problems. The dude has an army of Dreadlords at this disposal! He is probably the most dangerous Chosen at this time.

[MountaineerWV]

My mistake, the Seanchan took approx. 20 years to plan and outfit for the Return. I should have looked this up before hand. It has been 200 years since the end of the Consolidation.

 

Anyway, my point was that Seanchan would not be able to mount a sizable navy. Neither could the Sharans. I suppose that gateways could be the answer....but RJ sort of realized his mistake. The rules of warfare and economics would go out the window if just anyone could create a gateway and if a gateway's weaves could be set once it was made.

 

We also see examples of the Forsaken being hesitant in giving out 'advanced' channelling knowledge. They are probably afraid it will be used against them.

 

So we have channellers from Seanchan that can't link and most couldn't make a gateway and we have channellers in Shara that we really know nothing about. I don't know if Traveling would be a legitimate alternative to going over land with our current insight.

 

I don't want to see alien armies never before seen just pop out of nowhere. The red veiled Aiel sort of piss me off in that regard. I guess they can be somewhat explained due to Isam's upbringing, but I don't like it.

[Neophyte]

Well, unless some armies "pop up out of nowhere" it's going to be a cakewalk for the forces of Light - or a terribly written conflict that should have been a cakewalk - so I'd actually hope there are some armies a poppin' ...