is all the worry about the Dark One breaking free pointless?

[master]

If you get bitten by a snake, there is antivenin that will make you perfectly healthy 100% of the time (for specific snakes at any rate). Does this mean you should go wandering around a snake pit with no shoes on, then go have a beer after you have been bitten 10 times? No, just because there is a solution to the problem doesn't mean you don't have to use that solution.

 

 

well, with a snake bite you can suffer complications. and with a victory for the light you'd also have complications. saidin being tainted and similar things. so the light would still have to fight pretty hard so that 90% of the population doesn't die. just like a hospital [i'm guessing] would want to monitor you if had a whole bunch of snake bites.

[FarShainMael]

Strange things happen to probabilities when infinity gets involved, such as The Infinite Monkey Theorum. So the chances of him breaking free are actually closer to definite because there are an infinite amount of chances to him to attempt it.

 

 

but if there has already been an infintite number of ages, wouldnt he have broken free already if he had the chance? it kinda leads to a paradox. he can only succeed once. but there have been an infinite number of ages in the past and there will be in the future unless he breaks free, but from what I understand, even a 0.000000000000000001% chance of breaking free each age would mean he breaks free an infinite number of times. but he can only break free once. yet he hasn't. so either there arn't an infinite number of ages, the wheel of time laws of physics and cosmology are weird, or I'm making a mistake somewhere. I'm going with the second option.

 

There's a fourth option: the maths of probabilities deal withpossible outcomes.

 

Consider that old favourite of maths teachers everywhere, the sock drawer containing p socks of one colour (say, red) and q socks of another colour (say, blue). The question is asked: what is tha probability of taking a red sock from this drawer; and the answer is, it'sp divided by the total number of socks. (You can put that sock back now or it makes the maths untidy ) Now you are asked: what is the probability of taking a green sock from the drawer? The answer is 0, because it's impossible - there are no green socks in the drawer!

 

I therefore conclude that since the DO has not broken free despite having had an infinite number of opportunities to do so, it is simply not possible for It to break free at all. It has lost its green sock.

The probability is small, but it exists. It is well outside the bell curve. If graphed as a function, the curve approaches the line as an assymtote and is essentially tangential to the line towards infinity, but can never cross the line at zero. Therefore I conclude that Ishy is correct. It is all fine and well to say there are no beginnings or ends to the WoT, but realistically there was a True Beginning where the DO was locked out of creation. There must also be an end. It is impossible for me to envision existence without a Big Crunch or Big Freeze to accompany a Big Bang.

 

Consider the status of the Creator: He created the entire universe, including time itself. Therefore, he must be outside time, or at least outside this created time. He must have his own time dimension (and his own space dimensions) which are not the same as the ones experienced by Randlanders.

 

Think of the Creator as a super-programmer, running his Wheel-of-Time game on a computer. He wrote the program for the game, loaded it in and set it running; this is his moment of creation, not the Randlanders'. For them, the program has always been running, and will always continue to run. Unless the DO crashes the Creator's system..

[TristanWebb]

If you get bitten by a snake, there is antivenin that will make you perfectly healthy 100% of the time (for specific snakes at any rate). Does this mean you should go wandering around a snake pit with no shoes on, then go have a beer after you have been bitten 10 times? No, just because there is a solution to the problem doesn't mean you don't have to use that solution.

 

 

well, with a snake bite you can suffer complications. and with a victory for the light you'd also have complications. saidin being tainted and similar things. so the light would still have to fight pretty hard so that 90% of the population doesn't die. just like a hospital [i'm guessing] would want to monitor you if had a whole bunch of snake bites.

That was my point. Like a broken leg. You can fix it so it is good as new if you go to a doctor and do it, if you just say screw it it gets infected and you can die. Just because millions of people have had an injury before you and got better, doesn't mean you can just leave it alone and you will get better, you need to do something to fix it.

 

Just because an infinite amount of people have fought the last battle and won doesn't mean you can just sit back and and say 'he has never broken out before, he won't this time'.

[XoMeltdownoX]

Strange things happen to probabilities when infinity gets involved, such as The Infinite Monkey Theorum. So the chances of him breaking free are actually closer to definite because there are an infinite amount of chances to him to attempt it.

 

 

but if there has already been an infintite number of ages, wouldnt he have broken free already if he had the chance? it kinda leads to a paradox. he can only succeed once. but there have been an infinite number of ages in the past and there will be in the future unless he breaks free, but from what I understand, even a 0.000000000000000001% chance of breaking free each age would mean he breaks free an infinite number of times. but he can only break free once. yet he hasn't. so either there arn't an infinite number of ages, the wheel of time laws of physics and cosmology are weird, or I'm making a mistake somewhere. I'm going with the second option.

 

There's a fourth option: the maths of probabilities deal withpossible outcomes.

 

Consider that old favourite of maths teachers everywhere, the sock drawer containing p socks of one colour (say, red) and q socks of another colour (say, blue). The question is asked: what is tha probability of taking a red sock from this drawer; and the answer is, it'sp divided by the total number of socks. (You can put that sock back now or it makes the maths untidy ) Now you are asked: what is the probability of taking a green sock from the drawer? The answer is 0, because it's impossible - there are no green socks in the drawer!

 

I therefore conclude that since the DO has not broken free despite having had an infinite number of opportunities to do so, it is simply not possible for It to break free at all. It has lost its green sock.

The probability is small, but it exists. It is well outside the bell curve. If graphed as a function, the curve approaches the line as an assymtote and is essentially tangential to the line towards infinity, but can never cross the line at zero. Therefore I conclude that Ishy is correct. It is all fine and well to say there are no beginnings or ends to the WoT, but realistically there was a True Beginning where the DO was locked out of creation. There must also be an end. It is impossible for me to envision existence without a Big Crunch or Big Freeze to accompany a Big Bang.

 

Consider the status of the Creator: He created the entire universe, including time itself. Therefore, he must be outside time, or at least outside this created time. He must have his own time dimension (and his own space dimensions) which are not the same as the ones experienced by Randlanders.

 

Think of the Creator as a super-programmer, running his Wheel-of-Time game on a computer. He wrote the program for the game, loaded it in and set it running; this is his moment of creation, not the Randlanders'. For them, the program has always been running, and will always continue to run. Unless the DO crashes the Creator's system..

Yes, unless the Do crashed the system. I think it will happen, just not in this turn of the Wheel.

[FarShainMael]

If the DO does crash the system from outside the program's own time frame, that would destroy the entire program, not just stop it.

[XoMeltdownoX]

If the DO does crash the system from outside the program's own time frame, that would destroy the entire program, not just stop it.

True, but if he could destroy it from without, he would have by now. To destroy a computer system from the outside you can damage it beyond repair or cut it off from its power source. The DO seems physically removed from the System to damage it and can not stop the TS, which drives the Wheel. Therefore he attacks from within the System.

 

Keeping with the computer analogy, the DO must work from within by using viral programs. Dark Friends, The Chosen, Blight, etc. These viruses set certain conditions, like the decline of mankind in the Westlands. The decline helps his penultimate virus, turning the Dragon, who is the System's great self correcting program. Turning the Dragon so far has only succeeded in a reboot of the system (lesser victory or a draw). What the DO needs is for the worm to cause the Dragon to destroy the System from within, perhaps deleting the most critical system files, causing a crash. This all makes sense (at least to me), as RJ described the Wheel as a super advanced computer.

[FarShainMael]

All quite true; but I was trying to demonstrate that a creation event outside time does not have to imply an ending inside time.

[XoMeltdownoX]

All quite true; but I was trying to demonstrate that a creation event outside time does not have to imply an ending inside time.

Ahh! Got it.

[Trakand]

I believe that the three ta'varen are essentially the medicine this age needs to survive this turning of the wheel of time. They are going to twist chance to prevent the destruction of the pattern.

[jsbrads]

Farshainmael: The creator made the universe and Einstien explained to us that that creation include time and space; therefore the creator did not have an empty room and build within it a universe... the assumption that the physical world has time and space ergo the Creator has a time and space of his own which is independent is silly. the creator is not limited by finite qualities therfore he can't have a time or space in his reality, because those quantities have dimension and a time dependent Creator living in a space reference frame would be limited as well...

 

1. DO can defeat Randlanders, but DO never will, becasue he never did. on the wheel of time all future events exist in the past as well,

2. also mind that the destruction of the pattern does not mean cutting all the threads in the pattern to prevent future weaving, it means destroying the pattern, were the pattern truely destroyed at any point in history, its effects would be instantaneous through all time ie every thread would cease to exist going all the way back to creation so there would never have been any second day, thus we can be assured that the pattern will never be destroyed, for here we are.

[FarShainMael]

Farshainmael: The creator made the universe and Einstien explained to us that that creation include time and space; therefore the creator did not have an empty room and build within it a universe... the assumption that the physical world has time and space ergo the Creator has a time and space of his own which is independent is silly. the creator is not limited by finite qualities therfore he can't have a time or space in his reality, because those quantities have dimension and a time dependent Creator living in a space reference frame would be limited as well...

 

Not necessarily. His own domain may well be infinite, and His 'space' and 'time' may be infinite, imposing no limitations; He would be able to move about in it freely, at any speed He chooses up to and including an infinite speed.

 

My main point is that that His domain, whatever its nature, is not the same is that of His creation, Randland. Just as the domain of a computer programmer is not the same as that of his software.

[Pinzarn]

I am not seeing the breaking of the seals and the DO being free from his prison as the same thing. As I understand it, without the seals the DO will be free to touch the world, but I don't feel he would free from his prison.

 

My rationale for this is that when the Bore was made, it wasn't instantly sealed back up. There was a measurable period of time between the boring and the sealing. Enough time for LT to go before the Hall of Servants and ask for help then assemble the male-only team to seal the Bore. Seems to me that the DO would have broken free from his prison via the Bore if it was possible.

[TristanWebb]

Farshainmael: The creator made the universe and Einstien explained to us that that creation include time and space; therefore the creator did not have an empty room and build within it a universe... the assumption that the physical world has time and space ergo the Creator has a time and space of his own which is independent is silly. the creator is not limited by finite qualities therfore he can't have a time or space in his reality, because those quantities have dimension and a time dependent Creator living in a space reference frame would be limited as well...

 

Not necessarily. His own domain may well be infinite, and His 'space' and 'time' may be infinite, imposing no limitations; He would be able to move about in it freely, at any speed He chooses up to and including an infinite speed.

 

My main point is that that His domain, whatever its nature, is not the same is that of His creation, Randland. Just as the domain of a computer programmer is not the same as that of his software.

Also is the limitation that we cannot interact outside our universe. Physics only applies to our universe, interactions by outsiders into our universe isn't under the perview of science, which is why religion is still important in our world.

[spoke]

Pardon my nerdiness.

Nature of infinities.

 

Math with infinity can be a little complicated.

 

example 1

take 1/2 then add 1/4 then 1/8 and keep adding to 1/infinity, your result will become 1.

 

example 2

take 1 then add 2 then add 3 then add 4 and add 5 etc.. to infinity, your result will become infinitely large.

 

example 3

now take infinity and divide it by infinity, it could end up as three different possibilities,

A: infinitely large, (1/2 + 2/3 + 3/4...-with enough time it explodes)

B: infinitely small, or (constantly getting closer to zero , but never approaching)

C: finite ( a simple number like example A).

 

 

You people need to stop arguing whether given infinite chances to escape, means he will escape, and instead ask yourself if you are asking the correct question. you are all assuming his chance to escape is similar to example 1, when it is really more like case 3, infinite attempts divided by infinite time, and infinite different approaches, aka infinity divided by infinity, multiplied by infinity.

So is it example A -- unlikely because his probability increases with time (Ishmaels POV)

Or is it example B -- A very likely possibility

Or is it example C -- A finite number meaning his probability of escape is relatively constant.

When in reality, it is not just infinity divided by infinity, but there are multiple types of infinitely different parameters involved, so what is the real likelihood of him escaping given infinite time, infinite attempts, and infinite changes of the wheel with each attempt?

that is the real question that should be asked.

[ASecondChance]

Pardon my nerdiness.

Nature of infinities.

 

Math with infinity can be a little complicated.

 

example 1

take 1/2 then add 1/4 then 1/8 and keep adding to 1/infinity, your result will become 1.

 

example 2

take 1 then add 2 then add 3 then add 4 and add 5 etc.. to infinity, your result will become infinitely large.

 

example 3

now take infinity and divide it by infinity, it could end up as three different possibilities,

A: infinitely large, (1/2 + 2/3 + 3/4...-with enough time it explodes)

B: infinitely small, or (constantly getting closer to zero , but never approaching)

C: finite ( a simple number like example A).

 

 

You people need to stop arguing whether given infinite chances to escape, means he will escape, and instead ask yourself if you are asking the correct question. you are all assuming his chance to escape is similar to example 1, when it is really more like case 3, infinite attempts divided by infinite time, and infinite different approaches, aka infinity divided by infinity, multiplied by infinity.

So is it example A -- unlikely because his probability increases with time (Ishmaels POV)

Or is it example B -- A very likely possibility

Or is it example C -- A finite number meaning his probability of escape is relatively constant.

When in reality, it is not just infinity divided by infinity, but there are multiple types of infinitely different parameters involved, so what is the real likelihood of him escaping given infinite time, infinite attempts, and infinite changes of the wheel with each attempt?

that is the real question that should be asked.

 

This seems to be the key. If the Wheel were a passive bystander, it would likely be infinity, meaning the DO would certainly break free. However, the Wheel's adaptation to the circumstances put on it by the DO allows it to essentially reset the timescale; each turning of the Wheel, while dependent on the circumstances of the previous, are independent in that they can adapt. Thus, b/c of this marginal independency, the Wheel is not doomed to destruction. However, it is also not guaranteed infinite survival - it really depends on each Age Lace.

[flash_fire]

Why would Jordan mention possible outriggers if the DO won?

 

Okay here is my logic.

 

Mat & Tuon Outriggers ==> Mat & Tuon Survives

DO win ==> Mat & Tuon Dies (or the world is remake with Mat & Tuon being peons to the DO. Yet, DO really wants to destroy pattern [see Moridin]. Destroy pattern ==> People die. Mat & Tuon are a subset of people)

 

There exists Mat & Tuon Outriggers. Modus Ponens. Mat & Tuon Survive

 

Mat & Tuon survive. Modus Tollens

DO does not win.

[shortkut]

We all knew the dark one was going to lose by the very fact that we are reading the book. What we don't know is how he will lose or what the cost will be. That is why we are reading the book

[nolirion]

No , we all knew the dark one was going to lose because Robert Jordan said it in an interview .

[shortkut]

Most of us assumed it from book one...

[Kahsm]

...

 

Honestly it felt to me as if Brandon was reaching in that scene. He had the need to create drama and thus the Amyrlin's Anger, and went for the easy, plot driven, motivation.

 

What anger? If that was the anger and not a setup to the real anger at FoM then I'll certainly join your crusade in thrashing BS, cause that would be crap. There's no anger in that scene. None. More like "Amyrlin's appeal to reasonably debate a crazy plan".

 

The probability is small, but it exists. It is well outside the bell curve. If graphed as a function, the curve approaches the line as an assymtote and is essentially tangential to the line towards infinity, but can never cross the line at zero. Therefore I conclude that Ishy is correct. It is all fine and well to say there are no beginnings or ends to the WoT, but realistically there was a True Beginning where the DO was locked out of creation. There must also be an end. It is impossible for me to envision existence without a Big Crunch or Big Freeze to accompany a Big Bang.

 

Unless there's no free will in the WOT and some greater being that encompasses both the actions of the wheel, people, and the dark one is rolling dice to determine success/failure like a large single-player game of D&D, then we're talking Bayesian probabilities here (aka bullshit made-up guesses) and any mathematical analyses are effectively moot. There's no reason they couldn't have fought infinite times before and never lost yet because it's about action, not statistics. Similarly, there's no reason they can't fight infinite more times and keep winning for the same reason.

 

And even if they do lose eventually, I think most people would agree that the extra time is worth it. If you're more in the Isshy camp then kill yourself now, because eventually our universe will either collapse in on itself or grow cold and dead and everything will die... not anytime soon of course, but why bother right?!

[Wolf505]

I am not seeing the breaking of the seals and the DO being free from his prison as the same thing. As I understand it, without the seals the DO will be free to touch the world, but I don't feel he would free from his prison.

 

My rationale for this is that when the Bore was made, it wasn't instantly sealed back up. There was a measurable period of time between the boring and the sealing. Enough time for LT to go before the Hall of Servants and ask for help then assemble the male-only team to seal the Bore. Seems to me that the DO would have broken free from his prison via the Bore if it was possible.

 

That was my point exactly. The Bore was made. Then The Collapse happened which lasted around 100 years, then the War of Power, which lasted 10 years. During the Collapse the Dark One was able to touch the world, but he wasn't in any way free of his prison. The Bore would have to be ripped open for him to be free. With the seals broken he will once again be able to touch the world directly, through the bore. As the seals break he can do this more and more, hence bubbles of evil, spoiling food, the pattern breaking down, etc. etc. Breaking the seals will undoubtledly have a very negative effect in the short term, but in the long term it should make it possible for a more permanent fix to be implemented.

 

Egwene and the Aes Sedai just need to realize they don't know everything, and maybe they should listen to the one who is prophesied to save the world instead of getting in his way because they think they know everything and he's just a woolheaded man who is probably crazy from the taint.

[threadnecromancer]

No , we all knew the dark one was going to lose because Robert Jordan said it in an interview .

 

I am rather interested in seeing that interview, although of course Jordan kind of let the cat out of the bag in the first book I suppose what with those quotations from works from the Fourth Age.

[1Brotherbill]

Dark One never breaks free into the world. At best he can touch the world. He is part of the wheel in a sense. His desire to destroy the world is what makes the pattern of the ages possible.

[XoMeltdownoX]

...

 

Honestly it felt to me as if Brandon was reaching in that scene. He had the need to create drama and thus the Amyrlin's Anger, and went for the easy, plot driven, motivation.

 

What anger? If that was the anger and not a setup to the real anger at FoM then I'll certainly join your crusade in thrashing BS, cause that would be crap. There's no anger in that scene. None. More like "Amyrlin's appeal to reasonably debate a crazy plan".

 

The probability is small, but it exists. It is well outside the bell curve. If graphed as a function, the curve approaches the line as an assymtote and is essentially tangential to the line towards infinity, but can never cross the line at zero. Therefore I conclude that Ishy is correct. It is all fine and well to say there are no beginnings or ends to the WoT, but realistically there was a True Beginning where the DO was locked out of creation. There must also be an end. It is impossible for me to envision existence without a Big Crunch or Big Freeze to accompany a Big Bang.

 

Unless there's no free will in the WOT and some greater being that encompasses both the actions of the wheel, people, and the dark one is rolling dice to determine success/failure like a large single-player game of D&D, then we're talking Bayesian probabilities here (aka bullshit made-up guesses) and any mathematical analyses are effectively moot. There's no reason they couldn't have fought infinite times before and never lost yet because it's about action, not statistics. Similarly, there's no reason they can't fight infinite more times and keep winning for the same reason.

 

And even if they do lose eventually, I think most people would agree that the extra time is worth it. If you're more in the Isshy camp then kill yourself now, because eventually our universe will either collapse in on itself or grow cold and dead and everything will die... not anytime soon of course, but why bother right?!

Ah yes. I see I made my point rather poorly. When I said I agree with Ishy, I meant I think his point that the DO will win eventually is correct, not his position that he should therefore help the dark cause because life is pointless. I could certainly be wrong, I just can not conceive of a universe (even in fiction) that has a beginning but no end.

 

I like your point about the reason that they have not lost in the past is because of action by the "heroes." I think that is one of the things RJ is trying to convey to us.

 

I agree with you that most people would think the extra time worth it.

[Sephie913]

Farshainmael: The creator made the universe and Einstien explained to us that that creation include time and space; therefore the creator did not have an empty room and build within it a universe... the assumption that the physical world has time and space ergo the Creator has a time and space of his own which is independent is silly. the creator is not limited by finite qualities therfore he can't have a time or space in his reality, because those quantities have dimension and a time dependent Creator living in a space reference frame would be limited as well...

 

1. DO can defeat Randlanders, but DO never will, becasue he never did. on the wheel of time all future events exist in the past as well,

2. also mind that the destruction of the pattern does not mean cutting all the threads in the pattern to prevent future weaving, it means destroying the pattern, were the pattern truely destroyed at any point in history, its effects would be instantaneous through all time ie every thread would cease to exist going all the way back to creation so there would never have been any second day, thus we can be assured that the pattern will never be destroyed, for here we are.

 

1. This is my belief, as well, though for a different reason.

2. There's a flaw in that logic, like the balefire paradox. If DO destroys the pattern both forward and backward, then there never was any pattern. If there never was a pattern, the DO could not decide to destroy it, If the DO did not plan to destroy it, it still exists. Repeat the loop until bored. :) On the other hand, he could destroy the pattern forward and sideways. That is, if we are turnings beyond number in the past, it is possible that DO could destroy our future in the infinite distance, and all other realities at the same time. But I think that unlikely.

 

 

No , we all knew the dark one was going to lose because Robert Jordan said it in an interview .

 

I am rather interested in seeing that interview, although of course Jordan kind of let the cat out of the bag in the first book I suppose what with those quotations from works from the Fourth Age.

 

 

Several times, RJ answered that this turning of the Wheel was no different than any other. I believe we can agree that it is unlikely the DO has already won ultimate victory in a past turning. Logically, if this turning is not significantly different than any other, the DO cannot win at this turning. Following the logic further, this turning is significantly different from neither past nor future turnings, and so the DO cannot win ever.

 

 

 

And for the clever people who think that the Mat/Tuon thing is a garuntee of safety, consider this: RJ did not lie as far as we know, but he also did not spoil anything so far ahead. It is a remote possibility that he gave that assurance so that we would be surprised by the end (one, or both of them, die). I don't think that'll happen, but it almost makes more sense than him having told the truth.