Mistborn Mafia

[GoodGrief]

Yes, I can find cult. I asked Locke before I made my choice last night. From the way the nightkills are falling and assuming cult recruitment is tied to the cult nightkills (stake somebody and use the stake to recruit) then it looks like the cult is not recruiting every night.

 

Night One:

The cult kills Ellianora, a skaa tineye (tracker/observer). Staked with a metal spike

The mafia (I assume) kills leelou, an obligator pawn (cult)

 

Night Two:

Phelix, malatium misting (role unknown) is killed. No mention of who or even how, just that he was assassinated while eating a cookie.

 

Night Three:

Player, nobleman (but town) soother (lynch survivor) nightkilled. The scene implies he was killed by a coinshot, not a metal spike.

 

Night Four:

Talmanes, skaa traitor (mafia sympathiser?) killed

Vambram, nobleman (but town aligned) unsnapped Mistborn killed with sharp metal.

 

The last set of kills is curious because in it Vambram dies after going to investigate Talmanes' room, which implies they were killed by the same assailant, but that could have just been mod poetic licence. Talmanes could have been killed by the mafia because they don't always know who their sympathisers are. The alternative is a vig kill, a cult kill and no mafia kill.

 

Anyway we have two nights with an extra kill and both times metal spikes are used. If the cult recruits by spiking people with metal stakes used to murder someone then they have only recruited twice. They might have a limited number of uses of the ability or they might only be able to recruit every third night, which would make sense in terms of balance. Therefore, their numbers today must be their original numbers, plus two, minus one for leelou. So if they started with one then they now have two, which is half the voting majority.

 

As for the mafia, in a game with 18 players I'd expect 4-5. With a cult, probably 4. We have only killed two full mafia, and another mafia aligned player has been night-killed. So conservatively there is another mafia out there, possibly another if Talmanes didn't count.

 

Which means there could be as few as three innocents left.

 

I know I am innocent, and I know Tiinker is innocent because I viewed him again last night. I viewed Tina the night before that so unless she was recruited last night she is also innocent. That's three. I would sure like to know how many masons we have left. I would also like to know if anyone else has any information roles who could shed some light.

 

Right now I know nothing about Blackhoof, Talya, Alanna and Key.

 

If we lynch wrong today, one or both of the evil factions could equal the town tomorrow. It could be creeping up on mass reveal 'o'clock.

[Blackhoof]

you are right, griefy, the situation is dire. we need to lynch the right people or the town loses, and with this much inactivity, we have no real suspects. You, Griefy are confirmed. As are the people you viewed, luckily we still have a doctor amongst us, as well. We havent lost yet town, we need to lynch one of the unconfirmed people, the one who has exhibited the most suspicion. From what i have seen: Tina.

Vote tina

 

Griefy, i have had a thought on the cult. What if one night they stake someone (stealing their power) and the next night recruit someone with that same stake. Also, do your search results come back "Innocent/Not Innocent" or "Mafia/Not Mafia" or what?

[GoodGrief]

I viewed Tina two night's ago. She's semi-confirmed.

 

I get the alignment of the person I view, so I get told either 'town', 'mafia' or 'cult'. I haven't got a hit on any cultists yet but Locke has told me I can find cult and that if I view someone on the same night they turn I will get both alignments.

 

I don't think they could recruit someone on the next night because leelou was killed Night One and she was cult. There was a staking the same night. So either she was an original cult member or she was turned that night. For her to have been an original cult member there must have been more than one originally because as far as I can see the cult is still active. Cults usually start with one, therefore the recruitment must take place the same night. The cult-master must still be out there, plus whoever s/he recruited last night.

[Blackhoof]

woops lol, i meant Alanna, not tina.

 

unvote

 

vote alanna

 

good point about the cult though, maybe leelou was a sort of cult-sympathiser. it said she was an "obligator pawn" after all, meaning that she was just being used by them. maybe she won with the cult without knowing them and had to relay messages for the real cult. Perhapos the cult didnt know who she was either, and perhaps she never knew what the messages were, just that she relayed them.

 

the complexities....

[Niniel]

Yea, I am town and I haven´t been recruted by cult. Of course I can´t proove it but Griefy can at least say I wasn´t when she viewed me.

 

I intended to do a full reread but I have to confess that I didn´t have time to do it. I have read through the five last pages. It´s not much to go on there cos very few players makes own cases.

 

I´m a little bit confused about Blackhoofs vote on me recently. If you have read the whole thread you should know that you easely would have at least Alanna with you and maybe Talya too. An easy lynch perhabs? I thought that MCS looked town but maybe it was you that was recruted by the cult last night?

 

With two nights without a cult nk you wounder why? It could be, as Griefy say, that they can´t do it every night. It could be a doctor saving there targets? (Don´t know how that would work.) Or it could be because they got roleblocked. Since my roll is fairly clear town I will reviel that I have a roleblocking ability. I have never had that before and I have been hesitant to use it because it could be a damage to the town if I do it wrong. But here are my targets.

 

Night 1 - didn´t use it

Night 2 - Alanna

Night 3 - Tiinker

Night 4 - Wambram

 

Well, of course you can question my motives on blocking those but what´s done is done. Wambram was town, Tiinker is town but how about Alanna? There were no cult nk/recruiting on night 2. Was it because I stopped it?

 

This is no proof just something to take in account if we put it toghether with other things. I revield because I thought it might help town and I guess there is an important lynch today. If we don´t succed this day we can loose next night.

 

Alanna is the one who have been most active. Talya writes a lot but mostly comment on others thoughts or do a status update. I feel she´s trying to hide behind that. But, it´s just a feeling. I have the same feeling about Key.

 

So for now I believe Tiinker and Griefy to be town, based of Griefys viewings. The rest of you I will look on with suspicious eyes.

[Alanna]

Actually, there's no way to tell if there was a recruit Night 2, so far as I can tell. Though there was no cult nk. There also wasn't a cult nk Night 3, right?

 

I am willing to accept Grief and her viewings for now. Between the remaining, I'm leaning more towards a Talya vote at this point, though I don't have much to say about that. Mostly it's just that she hasn't been saying much, which isn't very like her, and that's not definitive at all. But I'm more inclined towards her than Blackhoof.

[Blackhoof]

perhaps the cult can choose to spike someone or recruit them, and can collect a stockpile of charged stakes to recruit with later on.

 

whats the deadline again?

[Niniel]

PM 5.00 wednesday

[Blackhoof]

that soon!

 

Wait.... we dont NEED to lynch someone... statistically, there are more Cult and scum than town, so a random lynch should, statistically, result in an anti-town lynch.

 

unvote

 

Let us see how fortune smiles upon us....

[GoodGrief]

That's ages away, and statistically a random lynch is almost as likely to kill me or one of my confirmed innocents as it is to kill a scum player. A lynch made on one of either you (Blackhoof), Talya, Alanna or Key has probably a 75% chance of hitting a scum player, assuming 2 cult and 1 mafia. And if there are 2 cult and 2 mafia then the odds are 100%. This assumes that Tina is innocent, but I'd take that bet since I hadn't revealed her innocence when the cult struck last night.

 

But you're right, we do need to get underway, and since work has very kindly reshuffled my schedule so I'm working or at uni for eight days back to back that reread I promised is looking unlikely. So I'm going to vote Alanna since she's been under suspicion before.

[GoodGrief]

Here's a look at the votes so far. The player list is unedited, but I've coloured the votecounts with the known alignments of players. Light green is for good and not dead, to the best of my knowledge. It looks like Locke counted some people twice on several days when they changed their votes, but the lynch votes are accurate.

Players

 

1)Song of Ice and Fire Vambram 2.0: UnSnapped Nobleman Mistborn - Night Killed Night 4

2)mmeeshal: Kandra (Godfather) - Lynched Day Three

 

3)Phelix: Skaa Malatium Misting - Night Killed Night Two

 

4)WWWwombat: Nobleman Mistborn (Steel, Bronze, Chromium) - Lynched Day Two

 

5)MCS0083

 

6)Talya

 

7)dapianoplay3r: Nobleman Brass Soother - Night Killed Night Three (One Time Lynch Survival)

8)Ellianora, Skaa Tin Tineye, Observer/Tracker - Night Killed Night One

 

9)Tiinker

 

10)Talmanes: Skaa Traitor, Informant/Soulsearcher - Night Killed Night Four

 

11)Vambram: Skaa Un-Snapped Bronze Seeker; Rolefinder - Random mod-killed Day One

 

12)TinaHel

13)leelou: Obligator Pawn, Noblemen PR Giver - Night Killed Night One

 

14)Alanna

 

15)Aust: Skaa UnSnapped Thug - Lynched Day Four

 

16)blackjacket Key

 

17)GoodGrief

 

18)Mav: Nobleman Slider - Mod-Killed Night Four

 

Day 1 Vote Count:

 

MCS (2): Meesh; Song

Tina (1): Phelix

Song (5): MCS; Wombat; Griefy; Talya; Tinker

Griefy (1): Elli

Day 2 Vote Count:

Tinker (1) - Phelix;

Wombat (8): MCS; Griefy; Vambram; Tinker; Player; Talya; Tina; Meesh

Griefy (1) - Wombat

Day 3 Vote Count:

Meesh (7) - Tinker; Key; Talmanes; Talya; Tina; Alanna; Griefy

Tina (1) - Alanna

Mav (2) - Griefy; Meesh

Day 4 Vote Count:

Vote Count:

Aust (6) - Tinker; Griefy; Tina; Talya; Vambram; Alanna

 

 

Thoughts:

 

It seems likely that Talmanes didn't know who the mafia were since he was one of the first on the Meesh lynch.

 

I think we can safely assume that the masons are a faction of nobles sympathetic to the skaa cause, considering all the town-aligned nobles who have turned up dead, including Mav. Which makes me wonder how many are left. Three have been killed, which with Tiinker would make four total.

 

MCS was an early opponent of Wombat and faded out of the picture once he was gone. Most likely he and therefore Blackhoof is not mafia. Antagonism between mafia has been used to great effect, even to the extent of getting one of them lynched, but I don't think the mafia would sacrifice a Mistborn when any old goon's death could have set this up. As for cult potential, if leelou was recruited on the night she was killed then the cult-master may be favouring quiet people, so MCS fit the bill, since he had been in early on a prominent mafia lynch and then gone quiet. The fact that he has been replaced rather than modkilled hints that he may have an important role. Like a powerful pro-town role (Song was an unsnapped Mistborn and was replaced, while Mav was a minor role and was killed) or a powerful/irreplaceable anti-town role such as cult-master. So for me Blackhoof is a no for mafia, a possible for the cult. Also he's been acting shifty all day.

 

Talya has been annoyingly quiet, which troubles me as she is crafty and tricksy. At the very least if she is innocent we could use her input. She jumped on the Song bandwagon, but so was I. She was late on the Wombat lynch, which is shifty. She was neatly in the middle of the Meesh lynch, but it kind of took off all at once so she might have seen the tide turning - I was late to that lynch myself. She was also on the Aust lynch, but then so was I. She's a possible for the mafia, and I can't discount her as a cult candidate either.

 

Key jumped on Meesh early, before it seemed likely she would be lynched, so I don't think she's mafia. She has been quiet though and apart from being on the Meesh lynch hasn't done anything of note, so it'd be harder for her to be accused of inconsistency if she was recruited by the cult. Of course, since she replaced Blackjacket she must also have an important role, whether pro-town or anti-town.

 

Alanna was quiet until Day 3 when she had a feud with Tina over her theories. She was late on the Meesh lynch, but so was I. Interestingly Tina's theory pertained to a possible link between Talya and Tiinker (if memory serves). Tiinker is a mason and Tina was innocent at the time for sure, but that in itself is not damning. Possibly Tina was right about the connection and Talya is a mason. Possibly Talya and Alanna are on the same team and Alanna didn't like Talya being pulled into the spotlight. If there are two mafia left it could be Talya and Alanna. If there is only one then there is unlikely to be a connection, as there was most likely only one cultist at the time.

 

Thoughts? Comments? Strident denials? Reveals?

[Niniel]

I have had a feeling during this game that Alanna and Talya has something going on. At this moment I think a Talya lynch would be good but I will see what the rest of you thinks. My reason for mentioning Talya is, what I stated in my preivous post, that she posts a lot but don´t come up with a lot of ideas. I am not in favour of a "no lynch".

[Talya]

I have to be honest, I'm finding it hard to get into this. Infact the whole DM has taken a back burner to RL right now. That's all I have say really., anyone in this ORG knows that...if not they should be checking The Farmhouse...

 

As for the Game, why does the cult have to have recruits. It could well be there is only a number of them to begin and they have a rotation on what skills they use at night. just a thought and no I haven't been recruited at night. Or if they can recruit it is limited. I hope so because having cult that recruit every night gives them a huge unfair advantage.

 

As for replacements and mod kills...i would say that those replaced were from people who asked to be replaced, I think MCS did this and Song too, I'm guessing Mav didn't, hence the chop!

 

Another bit about the cult, I think Griefy mentioned about Tiinks being viewed on the last day? I think she did, if so why didn't the cult then recruit him, because he didn't last night. Also him claiming mason would have made him a good recruit!

 

As for Mafia my fav was tina, but Griefy says no and we have already killed the Godfather so I'm wrong there. Alanna is my next choice.

[Alanna]

Talya beat me to it, but I don't think we should read anything into who was replaced and who was modkilled. Locke may have tried to find a replacement before modkilling and just couldn't.

 

Alanna was quiet until Day 3 when she had a feud with Tina over her theories. She was late on the Meesh lynch, but so was I. Interestingly Tina's theory pertained to a possible link between Talya and Tiinker (if memory serves). Tiinker is a mason and Tina was innocent at the time for sure, but that in itself is not damning. Possibly Tina was right about the connection and Talya is a mason. Possibly Talya and Alanna are on the same team and Alanna didn't like Talya being pulled into the spotlight. If there are two mafia left it could be Talya and Alanna. If there is only one then there is unlikely to be a connection, as there was most likely only one cultist at the time.

 

I don't think you have this quite right, unless I'm forgetting what I myself posted. The "feud" on Day 3 was not about Tina's theory concerning Talya and Tinker. True, I didn't buy into that theory and said so back when Tina first posted it (I think that was Day 2), but then, neither did anyone else. A few other players said they didn't think there was anything there either.

 

On Day 3, I cased Tina (mostly looking at her votes) and thought her to be scum, so I voted her. I think I did include her Talya-Tink theory in my casing, but it was only one thing I mentioned among other. Tina thought I was scum and voted me. That was the "feud."

 

In any case, I good with a Talya lynch, as I stated earlier.

[Tiinker]

I'm thinking that one of you Talya or Alanna is cult and the other is mafia, and if there is another cult recruit then its MCS/Blackhoof, since he would have been a good choice to recruit after being a good part of the lynch on Wombat and Meesh.

 

Vote Alanna. Out of the two she seems more like scum to me for reasons already stated, plus she had more posts defending the two lynched scum, Talya had few enough that I can't even remember any.

[Alanna]

So am I scum, or cult? First you say you think I'm cult, yet I "defended" scum. Why would cult defend scum?

[Tiinker]

So am I scum, or cult? First you say you think I'm cult, yet I "defended" scum. Why would cult defend scum?

 

Well if you were cult you wouldn't know they were scum in the first place. I don't see why you wouldn't try to defend someone just like a regular town would. And you're mixing it up, I didn't say "you're cult yet you defend scum". I said I'm thinking that you're either cult or scum but I'm going with scum for said reasons.

[Niniel]

Wow. It´s getting hot in here. Alanna is at L-1 then? I could go with a Alanna lynch but we still have a lot of time and we haven´t heard from Key. What do you say about this situation Key?

[GoodGrief]

I'm going to unvote because this lynch is taking off too quickly for comfort. We need to hear from more people.

[Locke]

Vote Count:

Alanna (2) - Talya; Tinker

Talya (1) - Alanna

 

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

 

Deadline is 5:00 PM Wednesday

 

Roles didn't factor into any of the replacements/mod kills

[GoodGrief]

So much for that speculation, then.

[Blackhoof]

Alanna has been very suspicious to all of us. Time for her to go, i should think.

 

Vote Alanna

[Niniel]

Here are some thoughts:

 

IF Griefy is right - she, me and Tiinker are townies.

 

IF we have two cult and one maffia left there will be another town as well.

 

Alanna and Talya has been my main suspects. Before Griefy unvoted Alanna there was a quick lynch comming up. Blackhoof was voteing me, Alanna, a no lynch, and Alanna again. This make me believe that Blackhoof is the second cult member and that would make Talya his companion.

 

So IF this is right we have Talya and Blackhoof as cult and Alanna is mafia. The rest of us is town.

 

Then the question is - what is most important? To take down cult or mafia? I have my roleblocking ability. If we lynch Alanna there will be two cult left and even if I roleblock one of them the other one may be able to recruit tonight. That would make three cult and three town.

 

If we lynch Talya I could block Alanna. Blackhoof could recrute during the night but then there will only be two cult and if I succed with my blocking there will be no mafia nk. That would make three town, two cult and one mafia.

 

This is just thoughts. I don´t remember what abilities Griefy has. Could we combine our abilitis in some kind of way? I can also say that I have some (not full) protection from being nk´d so if there is a doc left don´t bother protecting me.

 

After saying this I still feel like Winnie the Poh. *think, think, think* I may be totaly wrong here. But for now I vote Talya. Key what do you say about all of this?

[Blackhoof]

well, in my defence for the erratic voting thing, first i thought i was voting alanna for some reason. i was weird that day. needed more coffee :P secondly i corrected my mistake. Thirdly i was under false pretenses with the deadline (thinking it was within hours) and fourthly i was correcting my mistake again.

 

See, i never really wavered from alanna.

 

I am not sure how long the deadline is away, but i caution the hammering of alanna until we are at the cusp of the deadline, and are about to run out of time. With so few people left, we must be cautious.

 

@Mod: May we please have a vote count?

[GoodGrief]

I can do two out of protect, investigate and kill. I've yet to use the kill power. I've been investigating and protecting each night.

 

Votecount:

Alanna (3) : Talya, Tiinker, Blackhoof,

Talya (2) : Alanna, Tina

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is in 11 hours.

 

 

I don't think we can discount Key either. She's been so quiet. And has yet to vote. Blackhoof has been acting strange, particularly the no-lynch suggestion. I find it interesting that when I suggested a Talya/Alanna connection they voted for each other in their next posts. However unless the cult does recruit every night or there are more mafia than I thought, sacrificing a teammate is no way to get up the winning numbers at this stage. I'd say they are genuinely not on the same side, which is not to say that one is innocent.

 

I don't think the cult can recruit every night. I could be wrong, but if they could recruit every night I think they would, and if they had a limited number of recruiting power uses I think they would have used them early rather than risk losing the cult master before they maximised their numbers. If we kill a mafia rather than the cult and there are no more mafia left then we could avoid a nightkill and go into the next day with six people, so that's my best case scenario, but a cult death would still put a smile on my face. We have at worst a 75% chance of hitting an evil player today.

 

No one else has revealed yet, so I'm assuming we have three evil and a doctor in the mix somewhere. I don't think a four evil scenario is likely since that would leave us without a doctor in the game apart from me. I'm going to withhold my vote until the morning when I've had a chance to sleep on it.