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Caemlyn


Luckers
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Whilst I don't buy into Terez' scenario for how the Battle of Caemlyn will play out with Gawyn killing Rand, I do think it is now quite likely that there will be a convergence there given Perrin and Galad both referenced it, and Brandon has said all the main characters get together.

 

This thread is for the discussion of that battle/meeting.

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I'd say that were a battle to happen, it'd be an assault by the Shadow rather than the Seanchan. The Seanchan under Tuon would likely go after Illian, Arad Doman or Murandy rather than jump to Andor. Another possibility is the mainland Seanchan under whoever managed to seize power there (my vote is for Demandred).

 

Assume such a battle takes place, the big question in my mind is "why?" What significance does Caemlyn have that other cities lack? The only thing that comes to mind is that Caemlyn is attacked -because- the main characters, and the three ta'veren converge there.

 

-- dwn

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I'd say that were a battle to happen, it'd be an assault by the Shadow rather than the Seanchan. The Seanchan under Tuon would likely go after Illian, Arad Doman or Murandy rather than jump to Andor. Another possibility is the mainland Seanchan under whoever managed to seize power there (my vote is for Demandred).

 

Assume such a battle takes place, the big question in my mind is "why?" What significance does Caemlyn have that other cities lack? The only thing that comes to mind is that Caemlyn is attacked -because- the main characters, and the three ta'veren converge there.

 

-- dwn

For a Southlander, Caemlyn makes perfect sense as the first staging point for a campaign into the Borderland (ditto for Borderlanders heading South).

Hence, it would also make sense for the Shadow to hit it fust.

A mainland Seanchan assault is unlikely unless Demandred has gotten involved and taught the damane Travel (using BA minions perhaps).

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i think yeah a battle at camelyn is being built up.... and everyone shall get together there just before. perrin probably will get to camelyn by gateway once Nynaeve tells Cadsuane of where Perrin was and maybe one of the Wise Ones/Aes Sedai might learn the necessary to weave gateways as well and since at that point galad is with perrin, probably galad might be go to camelyn by gateway as well.

 

and there are also sea folk windfinders there as well, they might turn out to recognise the name Lord Mat Cauthon who helped freed the windfindes and help.

 

now whether the battle is against seanchan or trollocs and with some ?dreadlords? maybe?

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If there's an attack I hope it comes from the Shadow. Both cause it will be all out war and because another war between the light sides this close to TG, or even this far in TG would feel bad/uninteresting. The journey to the end is the point of any good story, but once it's time to end, any prolonging will just feel like it's in the way of the actual story.

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Hmmm i have always hated that theory of terez's. I love her? i think shes a girl, work she does and all the transcribing but that theory is just rediculous. why would a very insignificant character kill off the main? no sense. and also it requires Mat to give up the foxhead and honestly who sees him doing THAT?

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Hmmm i have always hated that theory of terez's. I love her? i think shes a girl, work she does and all the transcribing but that theory is just rediculous. why would a very insignificant character kill off the main? no sense. and also it requires Mat to give up the foxhead and honestly who sees him doing THAT?

 

He offered to give it to Elayne before and she refused, so its not impossible. However, that was before he knew of the Gholam and before he knew he was going to enter the world of the Finns again. So I agree that its unlikely for him to do so now. But not impossible.

 

I agree it'll be against the Shadow; the Seanchan would launch an attack against Illian or make a major push into Murandy before they tried to invade Andor. And I am willing to bet they are alot more cautious now that they have lost two forces just recently (against Rodel and Mat.) That, and Andor holds no real signifiance for them other then maybe an Aes Sedai being on the throne, while they have had a hard-on for Illian since the very start.

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its a nice staging point for the Dragons forces coming from the South and as we all know the borderlands has a arm south of Caemlyn. Once everything sorted it will the most important place on the map.

 

Has any one come up with a theory as to why Mat hasn't been able to see Elayne? I would have thought she would have had a meeting with him long before "The Seven Strip-Lass" chapter. He has so much to do.

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Ok, here are some thoughts.

 

Fortuona is concerned that the attack on Tar Valon will turn the Dragon against Seanchan, so it is possible that her next target will be a non-Dragon nation. She wants Rand to submit to her, not to destroy him.

 

Under that thought, attacking Andor achieves several things. Andor is the strongest Non-Dragon nation in the world--the strongest old Westland nation all over. By taking it Fortuona increases her power relative to Rand's in a way which comparatively lacks confrontation (its highly unlikely Fortuona knows that the Queen of Andor is Rand's sweetheart). She also throws down a marath'damane Queen--which is, remember, the very height of historical horror for the Seanchan. From her perspective this puts her in a far better position of securing Rand's subservience with no risk of further angering him--not that she'd falter from that, but why not avoid it if she can?

 

From a novel perspective--the number of channelers in the Royal Palace--including the Windfinders, whom RJ seems to have worked to keep in Caemlyn given the whole 'Elayne didn't realise the Kin could link to create gateways' thing puts Caemlyn in the best positing to resist a Seanchan invasion. Windfinders aren't afraid to use the Power as a weapon, and they're super angry about what the Seanchan have done. In addition it might serve as a great parallel between what the Aes Sedai could achieve and what an Unbound channeler can achieve.

 

With Perrin/Galad Mat/Moiraine and Elayne already centered in Caemlyn, a Seanchan attack would bring Fortuona, and then Egwene, Rand and his crew would soon follow--none would put up with Andor falling to the Seanchan, thus supplying for all the major characters getting together as per Brandon's comment. I'd suggest this defeat might well be what leads Fortuona to being forced to submit to Rand.

 

A final note: last we saw Elayne she was planning to send Sul'dam who had been convinced they could channel back to Seanchan to demand they be leashed. That blow alone would be more than enough to draw Fortuona to attack Andor--perhaps the first use of Seanchan Travelling?

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Thats sounds very plausible luckers. I only have one problem with it. Everything we have seen from Fortuona's POV so far suggests that she utterly believes that the Empress is a station above even the Dragon Reborn, and she believes the Seanchan prophecies are genuine, and not something modified to suit political means. I just don't see her submitting to Rand, even with a defeat, even though it must happen as prophecied. She is just way too stubborn and set in her seanchan ways to accept the supremacy of someone not Seanchan. The only other option I see here, is if she somehow abdicates the throne. If she does, the only person in the world with Paendrag blood is Berelain, who would have no problem comitting forces to the Dragon.

 

The other option is a stalemate. Both parties realize their error, especially if Elayne somehow manages to get across the message if Sul'dam channeling and Tuon looses her Damane edge. A deal is struck and Tuon bows to rand, while Rand submits to the crystal throne as a gesture of good will.

 

I consider an attack by the Seanchan on Caemlyn to be very probably, but I still hope it won't happen. 2 books remaining means we can't have more lightsiders fighting eachother. It's time to take the fight to the Shadow.

 

That turned into a lot of rambling.

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There will be contributing factors. The Empire needs to get slapped around from other sources before this--revelation of the sul'dam secret, attacks by Shadowspawn out of the Shadow Coast, etc. In effect, I agree--Fortuona's certainty in the ascendency of the Empire needs to take some hits.

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Yeah. There's that old prophecy, the Dragon shall bind the Nine Moons to serve him, first mentioned in TSR I think (re-reading now, actually on TSR and that's the first time I recall hearing it). So it will happen. How... well, that's something else. I think a combination of a lot of shocks, Tuon channeling, and Mat.

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There will be contributing factors. The Empire needs to get slapped around from other sources before this--revelation of the sul'dam secret, attacks by Shadowspawn out of the Shadow Coast, etc. In effect, I agree--Fortuona's certainty in the ascendency of the Empire needs to take some hits.

 

Luckers, do you have a thread somewhere that explains your Shadow-Coast attack theory?

 

It's true that a lot of different characters seemed focused on Caemlyn right now. A Seanchan attack would certainly concentrate forces there. Elayne refused outside help to obtain her crown because it was a civil war and she wanted it contained to Andor instead of spreading. However, the Seanchan are a different story, and you'd have to assume she'd be notified of Egwene's ascension in Tar Valon. Egwene and the other Aes Sedai would come running if the Seanchan were going to Caemlyn. Rand would obviously come running too, to save his woman and/or babies. Not even sure what Taim would do in that situation, he'd probably try to sit it out except the Seanchan probably know about the Black Tower and would want that taken out too. So yeah, a lot of explosive elements near Caemlyn, anything could set it off.

 

It's possible that Shadow army could reach Caemlyn by that time too. However, if I was the Shadow army commander (Taim, Moridin, Demandred), I wouldn't get involved if my enemies were busy killing each other... Thus, I would think it would have to be Seanchan or Shadow, but not both at the same time at Caemlyn.

 

But Gawyn killing Rand?... Don't see it, although ...

“Wow, and just when I thought it wasn’t possible to despise you more. Nice job RUINING EVERYTHING, ____. Gah.”
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Good points from Luckers, and I'll add two. One pointing towards and Seanchan attack, the other against. However, I must say I think a Seanchan attack is very unlikely, the size of the forces in Caemlyn is too great for anything but a raid, and that many troops can't get there, even by gateway, it would take a LONG time. And committing enough troops to win the battle would be virtually everything Tuon has. But that is getting ahead of ourselves.

 

For the attack: Tuon must view all those marath'damane running around in Caemlyn as an open sore that needs to be lanced. The Asha'man, the Windfinders & Kin, and Elayne herself. A very tempting target for an attack or another raid.

 

Against the attack: the sheer size of the forces around Caemlyn. From Linda at the 13th: http://13depository.blogspot.com/2002/03/military-forces-of-westlands.html#andor

 

Andoran Forces:

a) Elayne: 50k. Queen's Guard + Trakand leveis + mercs + House levies from her earliest supporters. She had 20k before the battle, with many more unable to get there or blocked by the siege. Est = 40k supporters + 10 QG & mercs.

b) Neutrals: 60k. Supporters & levies from the 6 houses that stood aside initially, but then swore to Elayne. Arathelle, Luan, Abelle, Aemlyn, Pellivar, Ellorien. Many may be undertrained. Ellorien is for Andor, but not Elayne.

c) Turncoats: 15-20k. Lir, Karins, and Sylvase changed sides late (save for Sylvase, who just became High Seat). They have 15-20k.

d) Rival Claimants: ?? 20k?. Arymilla, Naean, Jarid/Elenia. Hard to say how many, and not loyal to Elayne, but would fight for Andor (I think) against Seanchan.

-------------------------

130k (w/out rivals)-150k (with rivals) Andoran troops, maybe more. In Importance of Dyelin, they said they could nearly match the Borderlanders (200k), but 2/3 would be undertrained.

---------------------------

125 female channelers supporting Elayne, who haven't sworn the three oaths.

 

Plus:

1) Legion of the Dragon = 70k. 20 miles north of Caemlyn. Short swords and crossbows. Had 20k in aCoS and have been recruiting successfully the whole time. Linda guesses 70k, many may be undertrained. But the crossbow is the easy part, and if Mat in town for very long....

2) Band of the Red Hand = 30k. A couple miles south of town. Horse and foot and crossbows.

3) Perrin's Army = 11k + 100k refugees, many receiving martial training (and have a gift). 4k Two Rivers bowman, 1k Ghealdan lancers, 900 Winged guards + 5k mercenaries. 11 channelers (6 WO, 3 AS, 2 AM) + many of the refugees are starting to train with weapons.

4) Galad's army: 17k. Asunawa had 10-11k, Galad 7k.

---------------------------

 

Now we are up to 278k troops + 136 channelers (139 Teslyn, Joline, and Edsenia, not counting the sul'dam).

 

Last: Asha'man. = 300-350 at BT. We guessed over 700 at BT, over half (350+) sent to Arad Doman & Illian, of which 100 went to Ituralde, including all the bonded AS from Elaida's raid.

Maybe: AS embassies at the BT (16-53)

 

So, now 278k troops plus at around 426-476 channelers + any AS delegations remaining (could push it close to 500). Not an easy nut to crack.

--------------

 

Linda's guess at Seanchan numbers (with info from the books, of course), including soldiers from Altara, Tarabon, and Amadicia.

a) 100k local garrisons to protect against attacks (like Ituralde and Mat made)

b) 100k in northern Altara (guarding against Andoran and Murandian buildups) (KoD, under an Oak)

c) 300k+& 200 damane Ituralde's estimate of the new army coming after him.

d) 100k around Illian.

e) Plus smaller bands hunting Aiel (Shaido) and protecting the major cities. (50K).

----------

Say: 650K with no more coming (Seanchan in disarray + already recruited Tarabon, Altara, and Amadicia). And only around 300k + 200 damane not stationed elsewhere. If they see Rand abandoning Illian, that would free up that 100k.

 

Still, right now, if they threw all their strength at Andor, it would be about dead even in terms of troops (the Seanchan ones being better trained) and it looks like Elayne would have more channelers (though we know around 100 AM are DF's).

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Luckers, do you have a thread somewhere that explains your Shadow-Coast attack theory?

 

It's not really my theory, but something that was heavily discussed after KoD and sort of fell by the wayside--essentially its based around the fact that two stated unguarded Waygates are in the Shadow Coast.

 

I might do a more detailed write up soon.

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There was that Egwene accepted test where the Shadow attacked Caemlyn and trollocs were gathering outside Caemlyn in EotW. Could be foreshadowing. If it's the shadow, I would have my proxies Murandy? Jarid? attack first, since there whole armies can't be DFs and would likely turn on shadowspawn. If Jarid isn't a DF, I would send a Foresaken to compel or just do something similar to what Asmodean did to Couladin. Also for the shadow, I would look for Grey men, Dragkhar and other assassin shadowspawn to start poping up; slayer might even put his last appearance. That actually would rather appropriate.

If the attack is seanchan, we might see a display of Darth Rand. Since I'm guessing harming Elayne would be a rather big no no.

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I'd say that were a battle to happen, it'd be an assault by the Shadow rather than the Seanchan. The Seanchan under Tuon would likely go after Illian, Arad Doman or Murandy rather than jump to Andor. Another possibility is the mainland Seanchan under whoever managed to seize power there (my vote is for Demandred).

 

Assume such a battle takes place, the big question in my mind is "why?" What significance does Caemlyn have that other cities lack? The only thing that comes to mind is that Caemlyn is attacked -because- the main characters, and the three ta'veren converge there.

 

-- dwn

 

You and I agree. I really fail to see what the attraction to Andor is. It's not a particularly good staging ground for a move on the Borderlands, nor is it the strongest "non-dragon" allied nation. Any of the Borderlands is stronger, and even basic intelligence would show that Andor plans on marching with the dragon as soon as the throne is secure (which it is now). Caemlyn isn't on a river and lays in the middle of Randland. Either Tar Valon or Arad Doman would make a much, much better staging point for an attack on the Borderlands. Both those targets are much, much weaker as well. The Seanchan haven't even encroached Murandy yet, so why they would pick a fight with Illian or Andor and the DR is beyond me. I think the threat of the Seanchan invading might further consolidate Roedran's power and might reveal the location of Demandred.

 

The bottom line is, you don't attack enemies at their strong points without a very, very good reason, and I don't see a compelling reason to attack Andor at all. Even if they used it as a staging area, they'd have to cross thousands of miles of plains with spoiling food, little water, and no roads to attack the Borderlands. Doesn't sound very smart now does it?

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I'd say that were a battle to happen, it'd be an assault by the Shadow rather than the Seanchan. The Seanchan under Tuon would likely go after Illian, Arad Doman or Murandy rather than jump to Andor. Another possibility is the mainland Seanchan under whoever managed to seize power there (my vote is for Demandred).

 

Assume such a battle takes place, the big question in my mind is "why?" What significance does Caemlyn have that other cities lack? The only thing that comes to mind is that Caemlyn is attacked -because- the main characters, and the three ta'veren converge there.

 

-- dwn

 

You and I agree. I really fail to see what the attraction to Andor is. It's not a particularly good staging ground for a move on the Borderlands, nor is it the strongest "non-dragon" allied nation. Any of the Borderlands is stronger, and even basic intelligence would show that Andor plans on marching with the dragon as soon as the throne is secure (which it is now). Caemlyn isn't on a river and lays in the middle of Randland. Either Tar Valon or Arad Doman would make a much, much better staging point for an attack on the Borderlands. Both those targets are much, much weaker as well. The Seanchan haven't even encroached Murandy yet, so why they would pick a fight with Illian or Andor and the DR is beyond me. I think the threat of the Seanchan invading might further consolidate Roedran's power and might reveal the location of Demandred.

 

The bottom line is, you don't attack enemies at their strong points without a very, very good reason, and I don't see a compelling reason to attack Andor at all. Even if they used it as a staging area, they'd have to cross thousands of miles of plains with spoiling food, little water, and no roads to attack the Borderlands. Doesn't sound very smart now does it?

 

Gateways negate the need for a common staging point, and generally throw a wrench into any sane military tactics. The food spoilage is interesting, though. Perhaps the light's forces need to gather at a common point simply because being near Rand means they can eat.

 

Caemlyn does have some mythological significance. From the FAQ: "Caemlyn: Camlaan (where Arthur fought his final battle against Mordred) or Camelot."

 

-- dwn

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I'd say that were a battle to happen, it'd be an assault by the Shadow rather than the Seanchan. The Seanchan under Tuon would likely go after Illian, Arad Doman or Murandy rather than jump to Andor. Another possibility is the mainland Seanchan under whoever managed to seize power there (my vote is for Demandred).

 

Assume such a battle takes place, the big question in my mind is "why?" What significance does Caemlyn have that other cities lack? The only thing that comes to mind is that Caemlyn is attacked -because- the main characters, and the three ta'veren converge there.

 

-- dwn

 

You and I agree. I really fail to see what the attraction to Andor is. It's not a particularly good staging ground for a move on the Borderlands, nor is it the strongest "non-dragon" allied nation. Any of the Borderlands is stronger, and even basic intelligence would show that Andor plans on marching with the dragon as soon as the throne is secure (which it is now). Caemlyn isn't on a river and lays in the middle of Randland. Either Tar Valon or Arad Doman would make a much, much better staging point for an attack on the Borderlands. Both those targets are much, much weaker as well. The Seanchan haven't even encroached Murandy yet, so why they would pick a fight with Illian or Andor and the DR is beyond me. I think the threat of the Seanchan invading might further consolidate Roedran's power and might reveal the location of Demandred.

 

The bottom line is, you don't attack enemies at their strong points without a very, very good reason, and I don't see a compelling reason to attack Andor at all. Even if they used it as a staging area, they'd have to cross thousands of miles of plains with spoiling food, little water, and no roads to attack the Borderlands. Doesn't sound very smart now does it?

 

Gateways negate the need for a common staging point, and generally throw a wrench into any sane military tactics. The food spoilage is interesting, though. Perhaps the light's forces need to gather at a common point simply because being near Rand means they can eat.

 

Caemlyn does have some mythological significance. From the FAQ: "Caemlyn: Camlaan (where Arthur fought his final battle against Mordred) or Camelot."

 

-- dwn

 

 

Yeah I kind of forgot about the gateways since neither the Seanchan nor the non-allied countries have use of them. The Seanchan probably will in TOM, but they didn't until they raided Tar Valon. Beyond that, if they have gateways why would they need a common staging ground outside of their current land? Picking Andor doesn't make much sense, especially when the careful, methodical Seanchan don't know what kind of military forces are in Andor. Obviously they could find out fairly easily, but they would need to commit massive numbers of troops to an invasion they don't need to perform.

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I'd say that were a battle to happen, it'd be an assault by the Shadow rather than the Seanchan. The Seanchan under Tuon would likely go after Illian, Arad Doman or Murandy rather than jump to Andor. Another possibility is the mainland Seanchan under whoever managed to seize power there (my vote is for Demandred).

 

Assume such a battle takes place, the big question in my mind is "why?" What significance does Caemlyn have that other cities lack? The only thing that comes to mind is that Caemlyn is attacked -because- the main characters, and the three ta'veren converge there.

 

-- dwn

 

You and I agree. I really fail to see what the attraction to Andor is. It's not a particularly good staging ground for a move on the Borderlands, nor is it the strongest "non-dragon" allied nation. Any of the Borderlands is stronger, and even basic intelligence would show that Andor plans on marching with the dragon as soon as the throne is secure (which it is now). Caemlyn isn't on a river and lays in the middle of Randland. Either Tar Valon or Arad Doman would make a much, much better staging point for an attack on the Borderlands. Both those targets are much, much weaker as well. The Seanchan haven't even encroached Murandy yet, so why they would pick a fight with Illian or Andor and the DR is beyond me. I think the threat of the Seanchan invading might further consolidate Roedran's power and might reveal the location of Demandred.

 

The bottom line is, you don't attack enemies at their strong points without a very, very good reason, and I don't see a compelling reason to attack Andor at all. Even if they used it as a staging area, they'd have to cross thousands of miles of plains with spoiling food, little water, and no roads to attack the Borderlands. Doesn't sound very smart now does it?

 

Gateways negate the need for a common staging point, and generally throw a wrench into any sane military tactics. The food spoilage is interesting, though. Perhaps the light's forces need to gather at a common point simply because being near Rand means they can eat.

 

Caemlyn does have some mythological significance. From the FAQ: "Caemlyn: Camlaan (where Arthur fought his final battle against Mordred) or Camelot."

 

-- dwn

Caemlyn is a key staging point because it comtrols the best physical artery North -South all the way to Tarwin's Gap. East, there's the Waste. West, there are lots of random mountains. C-lyn also has storage for food.

The Light cannot afford to cede control of it, for defensive reasons.

Sure, the Light can Gate soldiers anywhere but they also have to protect their civilian populations. The Shadow can't use Gates that much.

If the Shadow's forces break through Tarwins Gap in force, the sane thing for them to do is come South following the path the Borderlanders took, perhaps with a little less regard about causing local damage. So the Light must control Caemlyn for that reason alone.

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Gateways negate the need for a common staging point, and generally throw a wrench into any sane military tactics.

Unless someone relearns how to ward against them. I actually expect Egwene to do that, otherwise the Tower will never again be safe.

 

The food spoilage is interesting, though. Perhaps the light's forces need to gather at a common point simply because being near Rand means they can eat.

Since this thread isn't restricted, I'll include something we learn from Perrin's PoV in chapter 2 (stop reading if you don't want to find out).

 

Apparently, Perrin can also block the DO's effects on food. He isn't even aware of the increased rate at which food has been spoiling Randlandwide. It's a pretty good bet that Mat can also do that by now (he even parted the clouds, which Perrin can't do, as of yet). So, food shouldn't be a problem. Not in Caemlyn, at least.

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Apparently, Perrin can also block the DO's effects on food. He isn't even aware of the increased rate at which food has been spoiling Randlandwide. It's a pretty good bet that Mat can also do that by now (he even parted the clouds, which Perrin can't do, as of yet). So, food shouldn't be a problem. Not in Caemlyn, at least.

 

Well, maybe he can. There are multiple other possible explanations, but there was sunlight coming into Galad's tent. Maybe Perrin is close by? Or Galad is having a similar effect?

 

Of course, maybe it is just chance.

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Caemlyn is a key staging point because it comtrols the best physical artery North -South all the way to Tarwin's Gap. East, there's the Waste. West, there are lots of random mountains. C-lyn also has storage for food.

The Light cannot afford to cede control of it, for defensive reasons.

Sure, the Light can Gate soldiers anywhere but they also have to protect their civilian populations. The Shadow can't use Gates that much.

If the Shadow's forces break through Tarwins Gap in force, the sane thing for them to do is come South following the path the Borderlanders took, perhaps with a little less regard about causing local damage. So the Light must control Caemlyn for that reason alone.

 

That the Light cannot afford to cede it, I agree with. However we were talking about the Seanchan, not the Shadow forces. Aside from that, Caemlyn is in the middle of Randland and it will take time for either the Seanchan or Shadow to get there. The Waygates have been trapped and guarded with only a few exceptions, so the Shadow have to go through the entire Borderlands, past Tar Valon, and then through hundreds of miles of desolate grassland to make it to Andor. The shadow could probably care less about Caemlyn except to raze it when given an opportunity.

 

Logistically it makes little sense for the Seanchan to use Andor as a forward base. It's not particularly close to the Blight to fight the shadow, and they'd have to conquer their way through Ghealdan and Murandy to do so. If the Seanchan wanted to attack the Blight or strong border nations, it would behoove them to go through Arad Doman and Katar. Rand gave up on it and the Borderland are at 1/2 strength, though the Seanchan might not know it.

 

 

 

For future reference, you put things in these handy dandy things if you're worried you may spoil someone.

 

 

Spoiler tags are pretty cool.

 

 

just do [ spoiler ] text goes here [ / spoiler ] without the spaces.

 

You do realize this is a spoiler thread right?

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