Elaida's Foretelling and the Fall of Taim

[Luckers]

Or maybe just the ousting of Taim, but I wanted a title with some oomph. ;D

 

Ok, so I've always thought Logain would be the one to out Taim, and kill him. I think most people do. Between Logain's muttering's about Taim and his glory to come it seemed very, very likely. I'm now wondering if it was too likely. If, in fact, Logain was a red herring, much like the BA Hunters were for Verin. Here is my reasoning.

 

Elaida's Foretelling; the Idiot Savant

 

Ok, so here is Elaida's Foretelling on the subject of the Black Tower, amongst other things.

 

"The White Tower will be whole again, except for remnants cast out and scorned, whole and stronger than ever. Rand al'Thor will face the Amyrlin Seat and know her anger. The Black Tower will be rent in blood and fire, and sisters will walk its grounds."

 

[aCoS; Prologue, Lightnings]

 

No, Elaida's interpretation of this was that the White Tower would be whole under her, the rebel leaders cast out and scorn, Rand would know her anger (and presumably give way to it) and Toveine and co. would rend the Black Tower in blood and fire, and walk its grounds.

 

That's the idiot part.

 

Now consider the timeline of the actual fulfilment of these foretellings. The White Tower made whole (under Egwene, fulfilled in tGS.). The remnants cast out and scorned (Black Ajah. Fulfilled in tGS.). Rand al'Thor facing the Amyrlin's anger (Coming soon, ToM or aMoL). The Black Tower rent in blood and fire (coming soon, probably ToM).

 

So here is the curious part. Every single one of these was originally slated to be fulfilled in the one book. The original A Memory of Light. And yet, "and sisters shall walk [the Black Tower's] grounds] happened in aCoS? Doesn't that seem a bit weird to anyone else?

 

Now consider that that walking bit isn't actually a seperate sentence. The full sentence reads "The Black Tower will be rent in blood and fire, and sisters will walk its grounds". Not, the BT will be rent. Sisters will walk the BT's grounds, but it will be rent AND sisters will walk its grounds. As if the walking is a result, or an integral part of the rending in blood and fire.

 

So here is the savant part of Elaida's guess. She was absolutely wrong about Toveine winning, but what if, god forbid, she was right in her interpretation that the Foretelling meant the Aes Sedai would rend the Black Tower in blood and fire? What if it is to be the Aes Sedai, not Logain, that out Taim and his men, or even kill them?

 

Ok, so thats some nice fancy conjecture about the prophecy. Do I have any evidence to support this potentially being the case, you ask.

 

What Went Wrong With The Aes Sedai At The Black Tower

 

The Reds and the Rebels both send sisters to the Black Tower, after which they go silent and we hear nothing from them.

 

"Mother," Romanda said, "I have made the inquires you requested. There has been no contact with those sent to the Black Tower. Not a whisper."

 

"Does this strike you as odd?" Egwene asked.

 

"Yes, Mother. With Traveling they should have been there and back by now. They should have at least sent word. This silence is disturbing."

 

[tGS; 45, The Tower Stands]

 

Disturbing indeed. Yet what is more disturbing is the question of why they disapeared. Obviously people have been anticipating that Taim did something to them, yet this is odd. When Pevara and the others first approached Taim he could easily have shielded them, or even killed them, and only his men were witness. Essentially if Taim had simply intended to kill, forcibly bond or imprison the Aes Sedai, he simply would have done so.

 

So what changed? I very much doubt that the Aes Sedai fought each other--we see Loyalist and Rebel Aes Sedai encounter each other several times, and whilst they might hiss a bit they don't take it further--I see no reason why, at the Black Tower of all places, they suddenly changed that. Furthemore its just as unlikely a Lightbound Asha'men, under the pain of Rand's orders, would have attacked them. And from that each side would have been quite careful to maintain the peace. Which only leaves Taim. But why would Taim suddenly change his mind about what to do with the Aes Sedai?

 

The answer that pops to mind is that he did something to betray himself as a darkfriend to the Aes Sedai. I'm not sure what--maybe he spoke to a Black Ajah sister that Pevara recognised, or one of the Forsaken dropped in for a meeting, or one of his Asha'men does something stupid. Don't know--but it is the only explanation I can see for him to change his mind. He got found out so he has to take them to protect the secret.

 

Ok, so there was a confrontation. We knew that already. But what, outside of a dubious sentence structure in a foretelling makes me think the Aes Sedai will come out on top? Doesn't their silence indicate they lost?

 

A Not So Dire Future

 

Amongst the Rebel sisters missing at the Black Tower is Faolain. Here is what Min has to say about her.

 

"A nasty woman," Min murmured, squinting after Faolain ... "You'd think, if there was any justice, she would have an unpleasant future ahead of her."

 

[TFOH: 50, To Teach, and Learn, 592]

 

By implication Min must have seen something good about her future. A simple absense of anything directly nasty wouldn't mean that she wouldn't have a nasty future, therefore Min must have seen something directly nice. So, however ominous the silence is, Faolain at the least seems likely to make it out safely because she hasn't yet had her nice future yet.

 

But it is true, the silence is ominous. Had they simply won they would have reported, and so that makes me think they were taken prisoner, and that one of them either evaded capture or will escape. Again with the conjecture you say? Well I do you one better and tell you I think it's going to be Pevara.

 

Pevara Being Awesome

 

During the tGS signing tour Brandon said these two things.

 

Hopefully we’ll get to see more of Pevara being awesome, but that could possibly appear in a novella on Brandon’s web page that will fill in some missing holes. But no promises!

 

7. Question: Please tell me all you can about the potential novella that fills in holes? What holes? Who? Where will it be published if written? Is this material that you really wanted to include in ToM or TGS but just couldn’t fit in? How does this match up with your feeling about not writing other stuff in the WOT world?

 

7. Answer: There are about 50,000 words of secondary plots that Sanderson wants to include in ToM. He’s just not sure all of it will get into the book. If something gets cut, he’d like to get to his fans on his website.

 

I think you can guess where I am going. Pevara gets free, or is free--frees the other sisters, and leads them against Taim in an awesome display of blood and fire either killing him, or at least kicking him out of the Black Tower, much as Egwene did with the Black Ajah.

 

But What About Logain and His Glory

 

Obviously Logain will still get his glory, I just don't think it will be through outing Taim and the fight of the Black Tower. I think each was a red herring for the other. Logain for the Black Tower, and the Black Tower for Logain's glory. I still think Logain will end up in charge of the Black Tower, and I don't doubt he'll do some awesome stuff during TG. I just no longer think this is one of them.

 

But why do I like this idea so much? I'm not the biggest fan of Aes Sedai, but they haven't done a thing right in a long time. They've been used and beaten by Aiel, Sea Folk, Black Ajah, Rand, Asha'men, Seanchan and a few others besides--and rightly so. Those of you who read my thread on the Life and Times of an Aes Sedai; A Study in Stupidity know my thoughts on them as whole.

 

But still, I wouldn't mind seeing them have some victories. And not stuff won by the Wondergirls, but victories for the old guard of Aes Sedai. They've been through the fire, and their stupidities are being exposed and dealt with, if slowly in some cases. Now we needed to remember why Aes Sedai were once respected. We need to see in them the strength and capability that crafed the original aura of the Servants of All. We need to see that they can be redeemed. Not remolded, like what Egwene's doing to them. I want to see if they, in themselves, can be redeemed.

 

Now is the time for it, and I think Pevara is the one who can do it.

 

Also this might give meaning to the Black Ajah Hunters. I'm vaguely dissapointed that there three book arc was resolved by Verin--only vaguely, coz that scene rocked. If Pevara's experience with the Black Ajah in some way reveals Taim it will be brilliant.

[dwn]

A couple things to add:

 

The curious thing about the silence, IMO, is that I'd expect one of the 'good' Asha'man to get word out if anything decidedly nasty happened, probably to Logain or Rand (or perhaps Elayne) rather than any Aes Sedai. In order to capture or kill the Aes Sedai without immediate repercussions, Taim--and his cronies--would have to be very quick and subtle about it. And I don't really see that group as being very subtle.

 

Since throughout TGS Rand is sending soldiers (and presumably channellers) to bolster the borderlands, I'd say that implies getting recruits/replacements from the Black Tower. The point being that the place can't be cut off from the outside world for long before somebody notices.

 

Assuming the Aes Sedai were captured or otherwise incapacitated, Any Aes Sedai who evaded that fate must be either unable or unwilling to Travel for help. To my mind, this precludes Pevara (or Faolain) being free. Also note that if 2 or 3 Aes Sedai were free they could potentially link to create a gateway.

 

A rather nasty (and unlikely) possibility that just occurred to me is the ousted BA taking refuge in the Black Tower. Kind of a proto-dreadlord sleepover if you will.

 

From a storytelling point of view, capture is a pretty poor reason for the silence, particularly since we've already seen that with Toveine's group. A more interesting turn of events would be the Aes Sedai deciding not to report back for some reason. I can't immediately think of one, though.

 

(Regarding the BA hunters, I always expected Pevara having an Asha'man warder would somehow be the ace-in-the-hole in that story arc. I too was surprised to see it wrapped up so fast by Egwene.)

 

-- dwn

[Sharaman]

FWIW, Lan hasn't gone into warder death rage either, as far as we know so, Myrelle is probably ok. There's reason to believe Nyn is keeping a discreet eye on happenings wrt Lan (she proudly tells Rand she's got him an army and gives him a timeline for Lan' arrival at Tarwin's Gap) and she'd probably react to that.

[Luckers]

FWIW, Lan hasn't gone into warder death rage either, as far as we know so, Myrelle is probably ok. There's reason to believe Nyn is keeping a discreet eye on happenings wrt Lan (she proudly tells Rand she's got him an army and gives him a timeline for Lan' arrival at Tarwin's Gap) and she'd probably react to that.

 

Lan did experience the Death Absortion, but because of the immediacy of the compulsion to go to Myrelle he didn't go into the Death Rage.

[Sharaman]

FWIW, Lan hasn't gone into warder death rage either, as far as we know so, Myrelle is probably ok. There's reason to believe Nyn is keeping a discreet eye on happenings wrt Lan (she proudly tells Rand she's got him an army and gives him a timeline for Lan' arrival at Tarwin's Gap) and she'd probably react to that.

 

Lan did experience the Death Absortion, but because of the immediacy of the compulsion to go to Myrelle he didn't go into the Death Rage.

I meant that if Myrelle had been harmed in the BT, Lan might have gone into warder death rage, not his reaction to Moiraine's disappearance into Finnland. As far as we know, based on Nyn's conversations with Rand, that hasn't happened.

[haloun]

here is a thought that ties both the foretelling and logains glory together... logain and his followers seem to have taken the majority of the aes sedai "warders" they talk a lot about that earlier, what if it is logains faction versus taims faction, with egwene and the white tower behind logain? a circle of aes sedai and ashaman together would greatly overpower anything that taim had set up for the dreadlords, and would definately fulfill the fortelling.

[AnthonyJamesEnglish]

What if rand during his confrontation with egewene is told to take some sisters and clean out the BT that way it's logains faction (minus logain) with rand and additional sisters vs Logain. Logain gains glory by fighting in the borderlands with a troop load of Asha'man rand faces his own problems that he ignored and also through doing so is redeemed in ewegenes eyes as well.

[KefkaPalazzo]

I find this kind of funny with Elaida's Foretellings. Every time she interprets them literally, they come true metaphorically (like this one). When she interprets it metaphorically, it comes true literally (the one in EOTW)

[Luckers]

I find this kind of funny with Elaida's Foretellings. Every time she interprets them literally, they come true metaphorically (like this one). When she interprets it metaphorically, it comes true literally (the one in EOTW)

 

 

It's what I enjoyed most about this thought also.

[Elan Tedronai]

The black tower will be destroyed in the opening first chapters of AMOL. The aes sedai will be instrumental in it. they will bond the ashaman loyal to logain's faction and together with the ones already on logain's roster will take out a large part of taim's lackeys.

 

Taim won't meet his end in BT. Probably somewhere else. Closer to the end as tarmon gaiden rages on.

[NitroS]

I dont think the black tower will be destroyed since avi's vision had a whole black tower and they need somewhere for men to have politics post last battle

[thisguy]

This black tower will definitely be destroyed or, at worst, uprooted at the end of TG. It's made with the stones of Shayol Ghul and stuff and stuff.

[Agitel]

I dont think the black tower will be destroyed since avi's vision had a whole black tower and they need somewhere for men to have politics post last battle

 

The structure itself may be sundered. The organization will likely persist and continue on with the same name.

[thisguy]

I dont think the black tower will be destroyed since avi's vision had a whole black tower and they need somewhere for men to have politics post last battle

 

The structure itself may be sundered. The organization will likely persist and continue on with the same name.

 

That's what I think, too.

[MasterAblar]

I dont think the black tower will be destroyed since avi's vision had a whole black tower and they need somewhere for men to have politics post last battle

 

The structure itself may be sundered. The organization will likely persist and continue on with the same name.

 

The problem is there isn't much of a structure. There is no actual Black Tower, just a village that calls itself that. At best you have Taim's palace which could definitely be leveled, but there would be relatively little point to either Taim or those who take him down destroying the entirety of the village. They probably have better things to do. And while there will undoubtebly be damage done in a battle of the Power, it wouldn't flatten the entire place. I really think it's metaphorical more than anything. The organisation will be divided with the revelation of Taim's true affiliation, and there will surely be a battle with plenty of fire and blood involved, but the obliteration of the entire complex seems rather excessive.

 

I do agree about the organization living on though.

[Knivy]

Consider the training men do at the Black Tower. Its a lot of fireballs and exploding rocks. At last count, 1 in 50 were killed due to the insanity. That was a very early estimate, at the time of the cleansing it was probably 1 in 20.

 

It is unlikely, but this could fulfill the blood and fire part if something gets cut from AMOL

[Vardar]

I know this is an old thread, but umm...

 

How many Ashman does the BT have? Like close to a thousand right? How many AS are there? Are there enough to "Rend the tower in Blood?"

 

Love the theory however.

[MasterAblar]

I know this is an old thread, but umm...

 

How many Ashman does the BT have? Like close to a thousand right? How many AS are there? Are there enough to "Rend the tower in Blood?"

 

Love the theory however.

 

It hard to give precise numbers but going by the rate of recruitement given in PoD (3 or 4 per day), the number of Ashaman at that point (aound 450), and the amount of time that has passed since then (about 165 days to the end of ToM), then we can assume that...

 

Actually I know I've posted about this not long ago. Yeah here it is:

 

I've tried to figure out about how many Ashaman there are at the BT and how many of them are actually darkfriends. In chapter 14 of tPoD Gedwin says there are 448 Ashaman at the BT, with recruiting parties bringing in another 3 or 4 each day. In chapter 18 of KoD Logain says there are 91 Ashaman with Taim, so we can assume they are darkfriends. There are 77 days between those chapters which means 231 to 308 new recruits bringing the total number of Ashaman up to 679 to 756. At this point the darkfriends make up about 13% of the Ashaman. Another 57 days pass to the end of tGS, bringing the numbers up to 850 to 984, which means 110 to 127 darkfriends. One month forward (28 days in WoT), there should be 934 to 1116 Ashaman, with 121 to 145 darkfriends. Rand sent half the Ashaman out of the BT in chapter 18 of KoD, none of which were Taim's men, so 340 to 380 Ashaman. That means that by the time the leaders meet at the FoM, there are between 600 and 740 Ashaman at the BT, of which at least 20% are darkfriends.

 

Obviously there are a number of other elements that have to be taken into account: deaths, burning out, insanity (up until the end of WH), possible increase in the number of recruiting parties, 13*13 turnings, and probably others I have not thought of. Furthermore the BT storyline has not yet caught up with the others. However all things considered I would guess that Taim has held his promise to equal the WT in terms of numbers, not counting the new novices brought in by Egwene.

[Vardar]

I know this is an old thread, but umm...

 

How many Ashman does the BT have? Like close to a thousand right? How many AS are there? Are there enough to "Rend the tower in Blood?"

 

Love the theory however.

 

It hard to give precise numbers but going by the rate of recruitement given in PoD (3 or 4 per day), the number of Ashaman at that point (aound 450), and the amount of time that has passed since then (about 165 days to the end of ToM), then we can assume that...

 

Actually I know I've posted about this not long ago. Yeah here it is:

 

I've tried to figure out about how many Ashaman there are at the BT and how many of them are actually darkfriends. In chapter 14 of tPoD Gedwin says there are 448 Ashaman at the BT, with recruiting parties bringing in another 3 or 4 each day. In chapter 18 of KoD Logain says there are 91 Ashaman with Taim, so we can assume they are darkfriends. There are 77 days between those chapters which means 231 to 308 new recruits bringing the total number of Ashaman up to 679 to 756. At this point the darkfriends make up about 13% of the Ashaman. Another 57 days pass to the end of tGS, bringing the numbers up to 850 to 984, which means 110 to 127 darkfriends. One month forward (28 days in WoT), there should be 934 to 1116 Ashaman, with 121 to 145 darkfriends. Rand sent half the Ashaman out of the BT in chapter 18 of KoD, none of which were Taim's men, so 340 to 380 Ashaman. That means that by the time the leaders meet at the FoM, there are between 600 and 740 Ashaman at the BT, of which at least 20% are darkfriends.

 

Obviously there are a number of other elements that have to be taken into account: deaths, burning out, insanity (up until the end of WH), possible increase in the number of recruiting parties, 13*13 turnings, and probably others I have not thought of. Furthermore the BT storyline has not yet caught up with the others. However all things considered I would guess that Taim has held his promise to equal the WT in terms of numbers, not counting the new novices brought in by Egwene.

 

So about 1000, what I thought. Cool thanks.

[Glyphwright]

I'm guessing the Black Tower will be rent in blood and fire as part of Pevara's moment of awesome, with Salidar Aes Sedai joining in on the fun.

[Durinax]

first taim thread I found. but I found something interesting

 

"I hear you hidwhat happened to Musar and Hachari and their wives." .... "They shouldn'thave tried to kill me under a parley flag. I trust you found them good places as servants? All they'll want to do now is serve and obey; they won't be happy otherwise."...

 

never heard this quote mentioned with Taim, but does it mean that he used compulsion? if so this could be very good evidence that he is forsaken trained, and not a reborn forsaken as some think (no forsaken where reborn at the time the compulsion would have happened)

[Luckers]

:-)

 

Interview: Jan 20th, 2006

 

Robert Jordan's Blog: IT'S BEEN AWHILE (Verbatim)

Robert Jordan

 

For kolp, Oberonus and NaClH2O, what Taim did to those Saldaeans wasn't Compulsion. They just don't have the intelligence left that would be needed for anything too exacting.