Set the horde loose

[Sab]

Here is something that i have wondered about.  With the Forsaken loose wouldn't it be in the DO's interest to set them and his armies loose now?  The land is hardly in any shape to stop a Forsaken lead Trolloc war.  With the numbers the DO seems to have, 100,000 attacked Rand at the farm.  Seems to me the longer he waits the harder it will be to succeed.  The more Ashaman are trained (sure some will fight for the DO)but the pose a threat to him now.  Had his armies just massed all out at the start, assaults the size of the one at Tarwins Gap in EOTW along the borderlands, Rand could never of gained any support with everyone fighting for their lives and Rand would of been to weak to do anything.  Just seems sort of dumb for the Do to have his forces just hold back.

[Ahaz Flagg]

I am not sure how to answer as I have what I beleive, it may or may not be true. I beleive you are incorrect of your assesment that they could not be stopped.  Trocllocs coming in force would do what

Rand has not finished yet, which is binding all the nations together.  You also give the the forces of dark to much credit.  They had at the start, 3 generals i beleive.  The chaos that the Chosen have been spreading is a far more effective way to undermine Rands vision right now.

 

I also think the Great lord of the Dark would have much rather had turned Rand to his side than kill or conquer.  This changed of course when he relized that Rand was not a weak kneed country bumpkin they thought he was.

 

 

[Arkelias]

If he has enough Dreadlords I still think it would have been a good idea, even if it does risk welding the world together.  If he waits Rand will accomplish that anyway.  Every day Rand has more Asha'man and nations like Andor come closer to unity.  It seem like time is against the DO.

 

The borderlands bringing their armies south should be what prompts the assault IMO.  You could wipe out every nation along the blight right now, and sure that would unite the world but the borderlands would also be overrun.

[buckeyebull64]

It's just too Risky, in the DO's mind, at least.  The last two times he lashed out, the War of Power and the Trolloc Wars, the Shadow was slapped down eventually.  Now he's gonna wait til victory is a sure thing (once bit, twice shy kinda thing).

 

Don't dreadlords have to be able to channel?  Even if not, there has been no point in the series where Shadow channelers have outnumbered Light channelers, and that would most likely be the deciding factor in open warfare.

[Majsju]

Maybe there is a bit more to the game than having two armies going head to head, last man standing wins...

[Arkelias]

The books specificly talk about new dreadlords and armies of trollocs flooding the world.  This is something we've known about since the Eye of the World, and is a very valid topic of discussion.

 

 

 

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[Charlz Guybon]

Here is something that i have wondered about.  With the Forsaken loose wouldn't it be in the DO's interest to set them and his armies loose now?  The land is hardly in any shape to stop a Forsaken lead Trolloc war.  With the numbers the DO seems to have, 100,000 attacked Rand at the farm.  Seems to me the longer he waits the harder it will be to succeed.  The more Ashaman are trained (sure some will fight for the DO)but the pose a threat to him now.  Had his armies just massed all out at the start, assaults the size of the one at Tarwins Gap in EOTW along the borderlands, Rand could never of gained any support with everyone fighting for their lives and Rand would of been to weak to do anything.  Just seems sort of dumb for the Do to have his forces just hold back.

 

They had to take time to raise a new crop of Dreadlords, which Taim has done. The Light will still have a lot more channelers, but that doesn't really matter. The Dark just needs enough to keep the Light busy while the Trollocs close with human forces.

[Luckers]

Three points on this. One, the Shadow were attempting to weaken the light before they began--which, I would have said should have been done around the time the Seanchan took Ebou Dar, though thats open to interpretation. The Shadow weren't to know the rebellion in Andor would fall apart, or that Egwene would be so successful in changing opinion in the Tower. They were probably waiting on the Seanchan/Tower war also. So yeah there are definately reasons for them to hold off.

 

Secondly, they would be gathering all shadowspawn forces from accross the Blightborder. Force movement of those numbers would take time.

 

Thirdly, they may simply be waiting for the Dark One to break the final seals. After all they'd want their big guns in the game.

 

The books specificly talk about new dreadlords and armies of trollocs flooding the world.  This is something we've known about since the Eye of the World, and is a very valid topic of discussion.

 

He didn't say there wouldn't be armies fighting, just that there is other stuff going on too. That seems to me to be a valid point in the question of why those armies arn't fighting now, coz if there weren't more in play, then they would be.

 

 

[Blackhoof]

i agree, massing what would have to be millions of trollocs along the blightborder would take weeks. And theres also the fact that they would have to unite the Trollocs first; whos to say that some have not gone rogue or drifted away from Shayol Ghul in the two thousand years since the trolloc wars.

 

(besides, that would be  a pretty crappy story; "Rand arrived at Fal Dara, still reeling from what he had done at the Eye, but- Oh my god there are hordes of trollocs!- The End)

[Durinax]

what the shadow should have done is found a way to bring trollocs to the far south, where they are 'fables' and coordinated their attacks so that while there was a major war waging in the south, the midland countries likely would send aid, and then send the next wave through them countries and take out the borderlands last

[Arkelias]

The borderlands have been stripped.  There is no internet in the Wheel of Time.  If the shadow conquered the borderlands it wouldn't be anything but another rumor for many, many months.  By the time people realized the borderlands had been wiped out the shadow could withdraw and flood the south with those same trollocs using gateways.

 

If they kept moving they could slash and burn every vulnerable nation, and if they did it right most people wouldn't even know who'd slaughtered those nations.  By the time the light realized what was going on it would be too late.

 

Speaking of which, why would the shadow bother with the ways when they have forsaken who can make gateways?

[Durinax]

shadowspawn cannot go through gateways, they die instantly (remember when the army rushed the one manor and thats how rand killed them

 

although I wonder if the TP could actually make gateways that keep them alive, cause it supposedly spouts straight from the DO

[Nargsmart]

  There is no internet in the Wheel of Time.  If the shadow conquered the borderlands it wouldn't be anything but another rumor for many, many months.  By the time people realized the borderlands had been wiped out the shadow could withdraw and flood the south with those same trollocs using gateways.

 

But their are carrier pigions, trading vessels, and if all else fails, riders on horseback.  They might be able to take out the borderlands before reinforcements arive, but the other nations would hear about it long before the Trollocs arive at their door. All the nations whould unite (hypothetically), possibly behind Rand.  Or Rand would just kill all the trollocs with the CK. 

 

Either way, shadow loses.  I'm thinking they are either waiting for:

a) Rand to go completely stark raving mad to the point where he is unable to do anything

b) Someone is able to steal/destroy the CK access key

c) The dark one breaks loose and deals with Rand personally...

[Owners.Inc]

The borderlands have been stripped.  There is no internet in the Wheel of Time.  If the shadow conquered the borderlands it wouldn't be anything but another rumor for many, many months.  By the time people realized the borderlands had been wiped out the shadow could withdraw and flood the south with those same trollocs using gateways.

 

If they kept moving they could slash and burn every vulnerable nation, and if they did it right most people wouldn't even know who'd slaughtered those nations.  By the time the light realized what was going on it would be too late.

 

Speaking of which, why would the shadow bother with the ways when they have forsaken who can make gateways?

 

Apart from the gateways thing which someone already pointed out, I agree completely. With say, Demandred to lead them into Shienar (for eg.) the Trollocs would be mainly unstoppable. We know that there are no channelers in Shienar (at least none capable of fighting Demandred), so it'll be relatively easy to overcome them. Similarly, using the ways (though risky) could put you plum in the middle of Cairhein which you can ransack pretty easily (let's face it, Cairhein just can't fight). Or put them near Illian or Tear, anywhere free of channelers.

[Luckers]

The borderlands have been stripped. 

 

That's not entirely true. The Borderlanders say they left enough forces to stand against anything short of the Trolloc Wars come again. Admittedly that's what's going to happen, but it's not like there are no forces up there... Lan for instance. And I doubt Lan would allow himself to be wiped out for no point without ensuring warning went south.

 

 

[Sharaman]

I think everybody on this thread is misunderestimating the fact that RJ, and now BS, are past masters (almost Joycean) at milking very short periods of time for very long books. The Great Lord is surely working out the logistics of a full-court press and he will call the play within a very short time. The attack will coincide with Lan's arrival at Tarwin's Gap. However, BS has the skills and apparently the inclination to turn the time taken by Lan's ride from World's End to Tarwin's Gap into 1600-2000 pages of hardback @ 250 words/ page.

 

[Mr Ares]

The borderlands have been stripped.

That's not entirely true. The Borderlanders say they left enough forces to stand against anything short of the Trolloc Wars come again.

Actually, that's not entirely true. Ethenielle says she left behind enough troops to guard against anything short of the Trolloc Wars, and she says she hopes the other rulers did so as well, but it is not certain that they did. Meanwhile Alesune, shatayan of Shienar's royal household, states quite clearly that they have indeed stripped the Blightborder - "we leave the Blight all but unguarded."

[Luckers]

In return do you see a great captain like Agelmar Jagad being so stupid? Alesune is a glorified maid.

[Mr Ares]

In return do you see a great captain like Agelmar Jagad being so stupid?

He would likely have argued against any substantial moving of forces away from the Blightborder (especially as "the Shadow never sleeps"). Ultimately, it's not his decision to make.

Alesune is a glorified maid.

Given we are given her view right after learning that "whoever believed any shatayan's influence stopped at ordering the cooks and maids and victuallers made a grave error." She might just have some idea of how many soldiers they have. Now given that even the most generous estimate made, that they can stop anything short of the Trolloc Wars has the problem that that is what they will indeed face, we are at least in agreement that things are going to go badly when the Shadow makes its move. I just think they're starting from a worse position.

[Mik]

In return do you see a great captain like Agelmar Jagad being so stupid?

He would likely have argued against any substantial moving of forces away from the Blightborder (especially as "the Shadow never sleeps"). Ultimately, it's not his decision to make.

Suggesting that Agelmar would have just argued against leaving enough forces behind and then leaving Fal Dara anyway, knowing (and saying) that the Shadow never sleeps is not giving one of the 5 living Great Captains (Mat included) enough credit, I think. I very much doubt Agelmar would leave Shienar if he didn't think he'd leave enough defenses behind to stop anything short of the Trolloc War. (especially if he's leaving himself)

 

Alesune is a glorified maid.

Given we are given her view right after learning that "whoever believed any shatayan's influence stopped at ordering the cooks and maids and victuallers made a grave error." She might just have some idea of how many soldiers they have.

'Glorified maid' is a big understatement. It's not a big secret that being the shatayan comes with a lot of power.

That doesn't mean Alesune is one of the best generals around. Besides, she lives in Fal Moran (middle of Shienar) whereas Agelmar lives practically on the Blight border (Fal Dara).

 

Who would you trust to be able to assess a military situation best?

I'll take Agelmar anytime over Alesune.

And thus I give Agelmar's statement about the Shadow and the fact that he's actually there -at his Kings side-, that;

A) King Easar realises the above.

B) Agelmar left more defences behind then what our Glorified Maid can correctly assess.

 

Now given that even the most generous estimate made, that they can stop anything short of the Trolloc Wars has the problem that that is what they will indeed face, we are at least in agreement that things are going to go badly when the Shadow makes its move. I just think they're starting from a worse position.

No argument about the first sentence; not enough forces to stop the Trolloc War is not nearly enough to stop what Tarmon Gai'don will bring.

 

I still think Luckers is right about the numbers though.

And who knows exactly how much of a difference it will make if the Borderlands get overrun in the first hours of the invasion from the Blight (if it had been stripped)... or after -say- a day or two of hard fighting..?

 

Time will tell.. (hahah..ermm..yeah)

 

[Luckers]

In return do you see a great captain like Agelmar Jagad being so stupid?

He would likely have argued against any substantial moving of forces away from the Blightborder (especially as "the Shadow never sleeps"). Ultimately, it's not his decision to make.

Alesune is a glorified maid.

 

Given we are given her view right after learning that "whoever believed any shatayan's influence stopped at ordering the cooks and maids and victuallers made a grave error." She might just have some idea of how many soldiers they have. Now given that even the most generous estimate made, that they can stop anything short of the Trolloc Wars has the problem that that is what they will indeed face, we are at least in agreement that things are going to go badly when the Shadow makes its move. I just think they're starting from a worse position.

 

I did say 'glorified'.

 

And I didn't say 'go badly' I said that the blightborder would fall. That was going to happen anyway--the entire combined forces of the Borderlands could not have stood against the army thats coming, and what remains will serve the same purpose in holding off that army until word can reach the south.

 

This way the majority of the Borderlander's army (the best trained soldiers the westlands have to offer, and vets are worth four times their number in other men) survives to join the forces of the light and 'fight another day'.

 

Does suck for the Borderlands though.

[Arkelias]

  There is no internet in the Wheel of Time.  If the shadow conquered the borderlands it wouldn't be anything but another rumor for many, many months.  By the time people realized the borderlands had been wiped out the shadow could withdraw and flood the south with those same trollocs using gateways.

 

But their are carrier pigions, trading vessels, and if all else fails, riders on horseback.  They might be able to take out the borderlands before reinforcements arive, but the other nations would hear about it long before the Trollocs arive at their door. All the nations whould unite (hypothetically), possibly behind Rand.  Or Rand would just kill all the trollocs with the CK. 

 

Either way, shadow loses.  I'm thinking they are either waiting for:

a) Rand to go completely stark raving mad to the point where he is unable to do anything

b) Someone is able to steal/destroy the CK access key

c) The dark one breaks loose and deals with Rand personally...

 

Given how long it took other nations to find out about Rand taking Tear, Illian and Andor and how twisted the rumors still are I'd tend to doubt they'd find out quickly.  They have carrier pigeons now and no one knows what's really going on.  Even Elayne is in the dark about events in most places. 

 

Think about how little people actually know about the extent of the Seanchan invasion, and how many people think its just a rumor.  Plus, in the lands of the south where trollocs are still a myth do you really think they're going to believe that a flood of them is wiping out the borderlands? 

 

If they move them through the ways or a gateway (assuming they can do that) they'll arrive long before a carrier pigeon.  Which means first rumors would arrive not long after the army itself.  Since no one would know when and where they were going to hit every nation would want to leave its army at home for fear that they'd be next.

 

This would pin down many of the forces capable of turning back the shadow, and would mean only Rand and his forces might have a chance of throwing them back. 

 

They aren't waiting for Rand to go insane since he cleansed the source.  They don't know where he keeps the key, so that seems like a silly reason to wait.  The last reason, waiting for the Dark One himself, seems pointless to me.  If the whole fight comes down to the DO and Rand what do any of the other shadow spawn matter at all?

 

He could have not a single forsaken or trolloc and simply break loose and fight Rand.

[Arkelias]

The borderlands have been stripped. 

 

That's not entirely true. The Borderlanders say they left enough forces to stand against anything short of the Trolloc Wars come again. Admittedly that's what's going to happen, but it's not like there are no forces up there... Lan for instance. And I doubt Lan would allow himself to be wiped out for no point without ensuring warning went south.

 

 

 

In Eye of the World Lord Agelmar accepted that he didn't have enough troops and was going to lose in Tarwin's Gap.  The only reason they won was Rand's intervention using the eye of the world.

 

If they were so short on troops then, and have brought over 50% of their forces south, how do they have enough troops to turn back the sea of trollocs the Dark One must be sitting on?

 

Lan just got there and admittedly he could be a rallying point, but by himself he's insufficient to the task.  If he ran up against Demandred and a horde of trollocs it would go very, very badly for him.

[yellie1107]

In my mind it is a simple explanation. As it happened many times before, even if the DO unleashes his forces and invades the Randland and kills Rand it would not serve his purpose. He wants to finally break the Wheel of Time and end the rebirthing of Lewish Therin forever.

 

There is a balance between good and evel and he knows he cant simply kill Lewish Therin. The simplest way to end this constant battle is to convert Lewish Therin.

[Luckers]

The borderlands have been stripped. 

 

That's not entirely true. The Borderlanders say they left enough forces to stand against anything short of the Trolloc Wars come again. Admittedly that's what's going to happen, but it's not like there are no forces up there... Lan for instance. And I doubt Lan would allow himself to be wiped out for no point without ensuring warning went south.

 

 

 

In Eye of the World Lord Agelmar accepted that he didn't have enough troops and was going to lose in Tarwin's Gap.  The only reason they won was Rand's intervention using the eye of the world.

 

If they were so short on troops then, and have brought over 50% of their forces south, how do they have enough troops to turn back the sea of trollocs the Dark One must be sitting on?

 

Lan just got there and admittedly he could be a rallying point, but by himself he's insufficient to the task.  If he ran up against Demandred and a horde of trollocs it would go very, very badly for him.

 

Well, one, they don't have enough troops to turn back the 'sea of trollocs'. As I said, the blightborder will fall.

 

Two, (though its rather irrelevant) Agelmar says that he is sending the civillians to Fal Moran, were he hopes the tide can be turned back. This indicates that he did not have all Shienaren forces at his command.

 

 

By the way Arkelias, can you please post all your comments in a single comment. If you need help in quoting multiple posters in the same comment PM me and I can assist you.