90's Action Hero Mafia - Game Over - Mafia Wins

[Ironeyes]

Nope, no other votes. Just me and Verb on Tig, and Tig on Key. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

1 hour ago, Nynaeve said:

 

I thought his WiM was too great to be scum. Still kinda do. Had he randed with scummates he was really hyped up about... mebbe it would stand as an alternative take....but he was pretty intense and I find it hard to believe he would be able to fake it that well.

 

So it's mostly a tone and behavior read mixed with some meta. And I do think he's been engaging and trying to hunt.

 

That doesn't mean he can't be 3p of course.

 

Yup. It's only a kind of combination of his first and second favourite roles. He's having a great time lol

[Ithillian Turambar]

Official Vote Count

 

TIG - 2/7 (Marsh, Verbal)

KEY - 1/7 (Tig)

 

Not Voting
Ithi, Dice, Nyn, DPR, Key

 

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Countdown to EOD.

[Ithillian Turambar]

29 hours and 13 minutes till end of Day 4.

[DPR]

My radar is all static atm, so I’m gonna look at this from another angle. 
 

8 players left - 5 town, 2 mafia, and a 3p

 

Did @Darthe confirm that 3p counts as town in regard to parity? If so: 

 

If 3p shoots tonight and misses, nothing changes - we just get a mafia nk
 

If 3p hits their target and it’s mafia, we’re left with 1 mafia and 5 town - pretty good. 
 

If 3p hits their target and it’s town, we’re left with 2 mafia and 4 town - not so good. 
 

If we lynch the target today, 3p gets a NK and that could go a number of ways. That’s a “cross that bridge when we get there” scenario. 

Which is all to say, let’s take our time so that we hit scum. 

 

[Tigraine]

1 hour ago, Ironeyes said:

TBH I think your lack of hammering is 80% likely to be a result of just not looking at the vote count carefully and therefore not realizing Heavy was one vote away from death. So I can't read anything into it.

I was completely aware of the vote count but I just don't like to hammer when there's some time left if we haven't heard from the person.  I tots missed his post so I was waiting him out.

 

1 hour ago, Ironeyes said:

So the multiple read lists a day don't give you something to go off of? Or my openly evolving stance on Ithi? Or my insistence that Verbal is town despite other players disagreeing?

 

Maybe it would be more fair to say that nothing you've said has stuck out to me in a way that had cleared your role up in my mind

[Ithillian Turambar]

Yeah I wasn't sure if I had to be worried about 3rd party today but the maths got all confusing when I tried so I'm really glad someone else did it. 

 

I've read the 3rd party info a few times now and it doesn't make that clear, but I think when it's just 3rd party they can win with Town? 

 

I remember seeing something about them not being able to win with Mafia, which would make them more on towns side. 

 

Maybe the 3rd party does want to win with Town in which case they could just keep shooting the same person over and over.

[Ithillian Turambar]

9 minutes ago, Tigraine said:

I was completely aware of the vote count but I just don't like to hammer when there's some time left if we haven't heard from the person.  I tots missed his post so I was waiting him out.

 

 

Maybe it would be more fair to say that nothing you've said has stuck out to me in a way that had cleared your role up in my mind

Wait... are you still basing your thoughts on Marsh on Turin being a mechanics junkie?

 

There's nothing else at all that either Turin or Marsh have done that you feel is suspicious. The did it say 'random' thing was Heavy and I remember reading that very early in the game.

 

In either case, the slip led to the player being 3rd party and not Mafia. 

 

Why focus on the 3rd party?

[Ithillian Turambar]

*could have led. I'm not saying there was a 'slip' I think we all had a good old chat about that. 

 

At least 4 or 5 pages.

[Ironeyes]

19 minutes ago, DPR said:

My radar is all static atm, so I’m gonna look at this from another angle. 
 

8 players left - 5 town, 2 mafia, and a 3p

 

Did @Darthe confirm that 3p counts as town in regard to parity? If so: 

 

If 3p shoots tonight and misses, nothing changes - we just get a mafia nk
 

If 3p hits their target and it’s mafia, we’re left with 1 mafia and 5 town - pretty good. 
 

If 3p hits their target and it’s town, we’re left with 2 mafia and 4 town - not so good. 
 

If we lynch the target today, 3p gets a NK and that could go a number of ways. That’s a “cross that bridge when we get there” scenario. 

Which is all to say, let’s take our time so that we hit scum. 

These numbers are discounting today's lynch though. 

If we mislynch today the bolded scenarios change (these are assuming mafia NK town instead of wasting their shot on the 3p):

• 3p misses = 2 mafia, 3 town, and 3p left. It's anybody's game. 
• 3p hits mafia = 1 mafia, 3 town left. We probably win. 
• 3p hits town = 2 mafia, 2 town left. We lose on the spot. 

If we lynch mafia today, all scenarios look pretty good. 1 mafia, 1 3p, and 5 town going into night, so even if 2 town die that night we still wake up with 1 mafia and 3 town. 

If we lynch 3p today, there's for sure a mafia NK (no BPV left) and we end up with 2 mafia and 4 town in the morning. 

[Ironeyes]

Wait... I didn't account for the hider at all. But he's claimed so mafia won't presumably waste their shot there. Probably doesn't make a difference. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

 

We need to lynch Mafia today.

[Ironeyes]

Just now, Ithillian Turambar said:

 

We need to lynch Mafia today.

Correct. I just wanted to correct the record because DPR's numbers were a little too, shall we say optimistic about what happens if we don't lynch mafia. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

 

Spoiler

I'm trying to help @SinisterDeathwish come true!

 

[Verbal32]

2 hours ago, DPR said:

 

I want to believe Nyn and Ithi, but man you just creep me the f out. 
 

No raisins, just easy talk and a quick vote. No bueno to me

 

It's because I forgot my pants again, isn't it?

[Verbal32]

2 hours ago, Tigraine said:

 

@Verbal32 you are a bit of a conundrum for me.  I feel like you're putting in real problem-solving effort but kinda like you're holding back.  You've been pretty sure that the mislynches were mislynches before they resulted in lynches so I feel like you're seeing something I'm not.  Maybe that's because you are the cop and didn't want to claim nor say definitely that so and so wasn't scum. But the big thing that has me stumped is why they haven't NK'D you.  You've not caused tons of chaos or distraction so keeping you around doesn't seem like a smart plan for scum.  So that leaves me very wary of you.

 

Even if true, how does that align with me saying Marsh1 was town and we shouldn't lynch him?

 

That was Day 1.

 

 

I'm putting in effort, but holding back?  WTF does that even mean?  But that last sentence is decent, makes me think deepwolf in my town reads.

[DPR]

13 minutes ago, Ironeyes said:

Correct. I just wanted to correct the record because DPR's numbers were a little too, shall we say optimistic about what happens if we don't lynch mafia. 

My point exactly. We can’t miss this time. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

I'm really trying not to be that Ithi but I know who I feel is Mafia.

 

Vote Tigs

[Nynaeve]

I am game for voting tigs cause I do think she's suss and that her focus seems more busywork and not actual scumhunting, but like I said, I want to hear from dice and key first.

 

That's mainly what's keeping me from voting atm. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

Yeah no that's good. That way there are reasons and choices being made. 

[SinisterDeath]

1 hour ago, Ithillian Turambar said:

 

  Hide contents

I'm trying to help @SinisterDeathwish come true!

 

Spoiler

Tagged again, bloody hell? What's my wish? To get lynched in a game I'm not playing in? Lol

 

[Tigraine]

1 hour ago, Ithillian Turambar said:

Wait... are you still basing your thoughts on Marsh on Turin being a mechanics junkie?

 

There's nothing else at all that either Turin or Marsh have done that you feel is suspicious. The did it say 'random' thing was Heavy and I remember reading that very early in the game.

 

In either case, the slip led to the player being 3rd party and not Mafia. 

 

Why focus on the 3rd party?

 

No, I have had a scum read on that role since the slip. Nothing Marsh has done has changed that.

 

The thing about Heavy was actively going on, that's why I even saw what Turin said.  

 

Again, as I said, it made me think of 3p at first but didn't make sense with the suggested action or inaction of not revealing character names.  Ruling Turin out as 3rd party but also feeling like he threw that piece about the condemner knowing who they're looking for when it was never confirmed in there for another reason.  This led me down the path of him having some reason to not want to have to reveal his character names. Since our claimed cop hasn't been able to get a read, I wondered if there was more to Turin suggesting this.

 

Which in summary means it wasn't about the 3p....it was about Mafia.

[Tigraine]

Correction, I have had a scum read on that role since I discovered the slip not since it first took place. 

[Tigraine]

1 hour ago, Verbal32 said:

Even if true, how does that align with me saying Marsh1 was town and we shouldn't lynch him?

 

Idk, hence why I said maybe.  Maybe it's because you're scum and knew he was town...I just don't know.  

 

1 hour ago, Verbal32 said:

I'm putting in effort, but holding back?  WTF does that even mean?  But that last sentence is decent, makes me think deepwolf in my town reads.

 

It means you're problem solving enough to seem town.  But at the same time, I feel like you're seeing something I'm not and therefore, holding back.

 

 

[Tigraine]

1 hour ago, Nynaeve said:

I am game for voting tigs cause I do think she's suss and that her focus seems more busywork and not actual scumhunting, but like I said, I want to hear from dice and key first.

 

That's mainly what's keeping me from voting atm. 

 

Yeah, I don't do busy work.  But fair enough.