Slinky-slank mafia

[Darthe]

9 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

If there are 3 wolves, out of 7 players currently alive, that means ~42.5% of us are wolf, and ~57.5% Town. Which directly translates to the odds of picking wolf vs villager. The 75% you cite earlier, is only valid on D1.

 

If we remove Verbal from that pool it's basically a 50/50 if we assume we he cannot be a wolf.

If he is a wolf, that tips the odds to 33% wolf to 66% villager. 

 

It is kinda sus that you're using D1 odds and pushing that as why going random is extremely bad (75% vs 57%)

 

I can't rule out a game where Darthe & Hallia are teamed. Nor a game with Darthe and Verb. Or Verb and Hallia. Or anyone else. I only know I am a villager, and with all the sus going on, if I pick anyone besides me, the odds are 50/50.

I understand what you're saying.  It's basically an inverse of the proof of the monty hall problem, and the math will hold up.  

 

What I'm arguing, which I said less explicitly but did say in that post, is that the fundamentals of what make this a game don't care about statistics. It's literally saying nothing to say "when I exclude myself I know that half of you are wolves".  That doesn't contribute anything of meaning to state. You're actually highlighting the problem with it.  If you RNG a vote onto verbal, with no mind for the context of the game, that'd be really dumb right?  Why?  Because of his gameplay informing your decision making.  Throwing away a week of 9 peoples play on a dice roll because you can't be bothered to do better than roll a die is poor sportsmanship.  That's what I'm arguing against.  YOU make the decisions, and YOU own the consequence.  Don't pawn it off.

 

Rant over.

 

P.S. if you can't rule out anything *to a reasonable degree* aka "x is more likely than y", well... This game's abnormally difficult.  If you're town though that is a real liability, cause assuming we do well today we've gotta do this exact same thing tomorrow, and again the next day.  

 

P.P.S. Hally+Me is literally mathematically eliminated.  That one you should be able to rule out, not even exadurating.

[whiskey delta]

That may not have been the wisest decision but it is interesting that some activity picked up when I opened the door to eliminating Darthe

[whiskey delta]

Vote Hallia

 

This has to be it 🤞 

[Cass]

Vote Count

 

Hallia (2) - Darthe, WhiskeyDelta 

 

Not voting: Hallia, SinisterDeath, Tripped, Verbal, VooDoo

 

EOD3

[whiskey delta]

Sorry if I’m wrong.

[SinisterDeath]

1 hour ago, Darthe said:

P.S. if you can't rule out anything *to a reasonable degree* aka "x is more likely than y", well... This game's abnormally difficult.  If you're town though that is a real liability, cause assuming we do well today we've gotta do this exact same thing tomorrow, and again the next day

IMO, at this point if we get lucky and lynch a wolf either thru RNG or Wagons, I think we'd learn more about the other wolves based on that flip, then we will by D3s votes and "hunches".

 

Between you, Hallia, Tripped, and Whiskey, a lot of all your plays are doing a wonderful job of setting the other up for sus if you get NKd. 

[Darthe]

3 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

IMO, at this point if we get lucky and lynch a wolf either thru RNG or Wagons, I think we'd learn more about the other wolves based on that flip, then we will by D3s votes and "hunches".

 

Between you, Hallia, Tripped, and Whiskey, a lot of all your plays are doing a wonderful job of setting the other up for sus if you get NKd. 

Okay.  Vote, and let's see how it goes.

[SinisterDeath]

Just now, SinisterDeath said:

, a lot of all your plays are doing a wonderful job of setting the other up for sus if you get NKd. 

Stupid autocorrect.

 

A lot of your plays, are doing a wonderful job*

 

It's actually kind of remarkable how many of the people here sus me as a Wolf, all slip me in their "list" of wolves if "X" flips wolf. 

 

Wolves clearly know I'm not a wolf, but they clearly don't want me dead, because if we make it to D4, they 100% want to make me as sus as possible. 

 

[whiskey delta]

The term for that is lynchbait.

 

You don’t want to be lynchbait 

[Darthe]

Fortunately, you made one a few posts where you did something a player of your experience should never do as a wolf.  Meanwhile Voodoo leaned into the "lolz im so derpy idk anything" schtick.  I'd be surprised if I'm wrong on either of you.  And then Tripped gets PoE'd.  

[Darthe]

Hey AJ, doesn’t your vote + time + no speed hammer = hally wolf and darthe town?  How long were you on there earlier?

[whiskey delta]

Close to an hour both times now I think

[whiskey delta]

Another funny Mafia term is village idiot

 

we complete for that mantle sometimes 

[whiskey delta]

@Darthe from the philosophical standpoint I don’t agree with what you think “perfect Townie” play looks like. Your aggressiveness has made you harder, not easier, for me to read. Maybe that’s a me problem but I never said I was good at this game either ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[Darthe]

Hey new people, don’t let this make it to deadline without voting.  If you so what will happen is the wolves will all vote the same person at a designated time about 2 minutes before DL, and that’s a win for them with the current votes.

[Darthe]

7 hours ago, whiskey delta said:

@Darthe from the philosophical standpoint I don’t agree with what you think “perfect Townie” play looks like. Your aggressiveness has made you harder, not easier, for me to read. Maybe that’s a me problem but I never said I was good at this game either ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

My aggressive play style has always been part of my town game but I don’t think it’s directly townie unless it’s hunting.  Definitely not a You problem, but I know a lot of well respected and high skill players who are aggro townies so I’ve never felt like it was “bad” per se. angry pigeon and John mcclane come to mind.

[SinisterDeath]

58 minutes ago, Darthe said:

Hey new people, don’t let this make it to deadline without voting.  If you so what will happen is the wolves will all vote the same person at a designated time about 2 minutes before DL, and that’s a win for them with the current votes.

Vote Hallia

[Darthe]

Hammer can come anytime now, so before we get silenced by twilight I just wanna say again:

 

to verbal: I’d lead you towards shooting voodoo.  Reread the interactions of today and make your own call, or even holster if you feel comfortable.

 

to AJ: good luck man.  Trust your reads, and if you’re fooling me then we’ll played.

 

to sinister: trust your teammates.  It’s the best we can do this late, set a course of action and follow through.

 

to tripped: if you know you’re not a wolf, the PoE is wrong, then you’ve got a lot of weight on you to show it.  
 

to voodoo: if you aren’t a wolf then welcome to mafia 🙂 it’s a joyful mess, and good luck to ya trying to get through it this game.

[VooDooNut]

vote Hallia

[Hallia]

Gg town

[Cass]

 

EOD3

 

TWILIGHT BEGINS - NO POSTING!

 

 

Final Vote Count

 

Hallia (4) - Darthe, Whiskey Delta, SinisterDeath, VooDooNut

 

Not voting (3): Hallia, Tripped, Verbal, 

[Cass]

Hallia has been killed. 

 

She was Vanilla Town. 

 

Glgl!

 

Day 4 Start

[SinisterDeath]

2 hours ago, Cass said:

Hallia has been killed. 

 

She was Vanilla Town. 

 

Glgl!

 

Day 4 Start

@game mods, don't leave us hanging 24 hours if it's game over! 

[Sooh]

56 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

@game mods, don't leave us hanging 24 hours if it's game over! 

I would never do that. 

[Sooh]

 

It is now Day 4. 

Darthe has been killed. He was Vanilla Town.

 

Alive players: SD, Tripped, Verb, VooDoo, WhiskeyD

 

3 to hammer.

 

EOD4
 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Sooh