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No Super Bowl trailer.


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Well, I was wrong. No Super Bowl trailer will be coming (and nothing for #WoTWednesday today either) per this tweet from the official Twitter account. The last bullet point "...we're working on a new video featuring something [redacted] to hopefully share soon, Light willing" is about as perfect an Aes Sedai statement as one could imagine. It will be interesting to see what they have in store (could be literally anything) and when they drop it. (Just because there's no Super Bowl spot, doesn't mean the content won't be released before Sunday).

 

In my opinion, the nature of whatever is coming next will be revelatory concerning the release plan. If it's another prop video or concept art release, that would suggest we are still many months away. I'll stick with my Q2 release prediction for now, though my confidence is wavering.  

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Yeah, that tweet seemed to dump cold water on my wavering hopes. I am now thinking fall at earliest.  I guess we all want them to take the time necessary for a really great product. All the waiting is tough. 

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This is 100% correct. 

2 minutes ago, dssharp said:

I guess we all want them to take the time necessary for a really great product. All the waiting is tough. 

 

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i, for one, am glad there's no trailer for the superbowl. first, i would have a hard time imagining much overlapping between superbowl audience and wot audience. but most important, if that 30 seconds ad is worth 5 million dollars - and i have a hard time conceiving any single 30 seconds ad, no matter how many people it reaches, increase revenues by 5 millions to justify its placement - that would be 5% of the whole budget. and i'd rather have them spend 5% of the budget to improve the show than for a single 5 seconds advertising.

 

that said, a trailer at this general time would have been nice.

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The argument for a combined Amazon Prime Original Series spot where WoT makes an appearance was compelling enough that I found it plausible.  But I'm not that surprised that there's no WoT specific spot for Sunday's game, and I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of combined promotion doesn't appear.  Note that the tweet, while confirming that there will be no WoT-specific material for Sunday, didn't rule out such a combined promo where the promo uses something like the WoT logo in a <1 second flash as they flash through all their other upcoming shows.  I don't expect it, but it remains a possibility.

 

My expectation for the video is that it will be yet another excerpt from the behind-the-scenes, making-of documentary they're clearly putting together, that will likely be released in full together with the first season release.  Those kinds of documentaries don't take as much to produce, and it gives the team something else to do during all the Covid downtime, so I wouldn't be surprised if that documentary is further along towards completion than the first season is.  It also gives something they can pull teasers from that don't risk spoilers, to keep us obsessed and impatient fans placated and engaged.  I don't expect the team to release much else except excerpts from their documentary until they're ready to drop the first trailer and begin the actual mainstream promotion for the show, likely no more than a couple of months ahead of the first season's release.  Incidentally, and pertaining to our conversation on the other thread, localizing this documentary is very likely also part of the work those voice actors will be doing for their extraordinary 6-9 month long contracts they've reportedly been retained for.

 

I think hoping for a Q2 release is still far too early.  Those pickup shots they have to do in April are in Q2, after all, and I find it unlikely they'll be able to finish post-production on those shots and the episodes in which they occur in the few weeks remaining in the 2nd Quarter after they finish shooting.  Moreover, as fans who are not just interested in getting to watch the show as soon as possible, but who also want the show to do well, who want the show to be renewed not just for a second season, but for the 6+ seasons it will take to come close to telling this story properly, we shouldn't want a Q2 or Q3 release, particularly this year.  People are not going to be wanting to spend their evenings and weekends this coming Spring and Summer inside in front of their TVs, after more than a year of lockdowns and social distancing, when those orders are going to be lifted and lessened due to the proliferation of the vaccine.  It sucks to have to wait, but it'll be better for the show to release in late Q3, or better, Q4, just in terms of maximizing their initial viewers.

 

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8 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

Incidentally, and pertaining to our conversation on the other thread, localizing this documentary is very likely also part of the work those voice actors will be doing for their extraordinary 6-9 month long contracts they've reportedly been retained for.

That's a very good point that I hadn't considered. (Though I'm not sure the same guy that voices Rand, for example, would necessarily be the same person who does voiceover work on the behind the scenes stuff). 

 

10 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

I think hoping for a Q2 release is still far too early.  Those pickup shots they have to do in April are in Q2, after all, and I find it unlikely they'll be able to finish post-production on those shots and the episodes in which they occur in the few weeks remaining in the 2nd Quarter after they finish shooting.  

12 weeks seems like plenty of time for this, given that most of the post production work is already done. The key, of course, is whether there is a significant amount of principal photography remaining. 

 

13 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

People are not going to be wanting to spend their evenings and weekends this coming Spring and Summer inside in front of their TVs, after more than a year of lockdowns and social distancing, when those orders are going to be lifted and lessened due to the proliferation of the vaccine.  It sucks to have to wait, but it'll be better for the show to release in late Q3, or better, Q4, just in terms of maximizing their initial viewers.

This is a good point too. Though the nature of streaming services makes it less impactful, IMHO since people are able to watch whenever they want and aren't locked into a particular viewing window.

 

An October release could be a good target if they are going to play up the spooky elements. I'll still cling to my Q2 prediction until I see what the next offer from WotonPrime is.

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They wouldn't have 12 weeks.  If they have a month of shooting in April, they would have 8 weeks left in the quarter.  And you have to remember that they won't just be editing and processing those shots, almost the whole post-production process for those episodes will have been delayed, including for filming that's been in the can for months now.

 

My guess is that the series could be ready as early as late July or August if they really pushed and wanted to release that early.  But I suspect they don't want to, because of the Covid considerations for one, and for another, a Q4 release would put them exactly a year off from their original timeline, which helps alleviate a whole host of other scheduling and administrative headaches.

Edited by Thrasymachus
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4 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

And you have to remember that they won't just be editing and processing those shots, almost the whole post-production process for those episodes will have been delayed, including for filming that's been in the can for months now.

Where do you get this from? Rafe specifically addressed this point in April saying that they were doing pre-production, principal photography, and post all at the same time. (Location scouts for block 3, shooting on block 2, post on block 1). There's no chance that they've been sitting on film that's in the can this entire time. 

 

Anything that can be finished, will have been. That means episodes 1-6 are probably entirely complete. I can't imagine why post production on episodes 7 and 8 couldn't be completed in May if shooting is done in April.

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That's talking about post-production of episodes already fully shot, while filming other episodes, while yet other episodes are being prepped to shoot.  You can't do much post-production on an episode that hasn't been fully shot yet.  The filming reportedly being done in April is described as "pick-up shots." Additional scenes for episodes or re-shoots.  Without those scenes, the rest of the episode can't really be cut and edited together into the beginnings of a coherent whole yet, music for the episode can't be recorded or edited in, and it makes more sense to wait for effects to ensure consistency within the episode.  I'm sure they've got everything done as far as they can, and as far as it makes sense to do, for those episodes that are still waiting on these April shots, but that's not really much farther than having the existing film in the can, reviewed and ready to be cut and stitched together with the film they're still waiting on.  And there are wholistic targets, things like total runtime and placement of scene-breaks within the episode to make space for commercial breaks for future syndication, that can't really be accommodated without all of the film for that episode being available.

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3 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

, and I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of combined promotion doesn't appear.  Note that the tweet, while confirming that there will be no WoT-specific material for Sunday, didn't rule out such a combined promo where the promo uses something like the WoT logo in a <1 second flash as they flash through all their other upcoming shows.

Yea, after that tweet I believe if Amazon does a spot, it'll just be a text list of upcoming shows.

The broader question though, is what "assets" Amazon can use from a show's production for "Amazon ads" for their upcoming shows? 
E.g. Could Amazon have advanced graphics from Rafe, and Amazon could unbeknownst to Rafe, make an ad using said graphics? So WoTonPrime's tweet could be an "Aes Sedi" answer in that "they" aren't doing anything, but Amazon could be?

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40 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

Yea, after that tweet I believe if Amazon does a spot, it'll just be a text list of upcoming shows.

The broader question though, is what "assets" Amazon can use from a show's production for "Amazon ads" for their upcoming shows? 
E.g. Could Amazon have advanced graphics from Rafe, and Amazon could unbeknownst to Rafe, make an ad using said graphics? So WoTonPrime's tweet could be an "Aes Sedi" answer in that "they" aren't doing anything, but Amazon could be?

There is definitely a mile of Aes Sedai wiggle room in that "[redacted]" comment. 

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They almost certainly have a screensplash logo, the Wheel with the Orobouros woven through it and "The Wheel of Time" in big font overlaid.  If they do anything at all to promote the WoT along with all their other upcoming shows for the year, it will likely just be a flash of that logo, possibly a tight shot of Rosamund's face immediately preceding or following it, in a sequence with all their other shows doing something similar.  And I don't think they'll do that, or they'd have teased something about having to be sharp-eyed to catch it.  And I doubt Amazon would put WoT even in something like that without letting the showrunners know they're doing it.  We'll just have to wait and see, though.  Doubts and speculation aren't evidence.

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Rosamund in the studio for 6 hours + "working on a new video ... to share soon" = trailer? Probably not. But it sure is an interesting development.

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2 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

They almost certainly have a screensplash logo, the Wheel with the Orobouros woven through it and "The Wheel of Time" in big font overlaid.  If they do anything at all to promote the WoT along with all their other upcoming shows for the year, it will likely just be a flash of that logo, possibly a tight shot of Rosamund's face immediately preceding or following it, in a sequence with all their other shows doing something similar.  And I don't think they'll do that, or they'd have teased something about having to be sharp-eyed to catch it.  And I doubt Amazon would put WoT even in something like that without letting the showrunners know they're doing it.  We'll just have to wait and see, though.  Doubts and speculation aren't evidence.


That's hard to say when it comes to Producers, Studios, and all those involved.
Showrunners constantly clash with those people daily over everything. Specially when executive producers promise garbage to investors. 
 

Quote

- nothing tomorrow
- nothing Sunday (saving our copper for now)
- but we’re working on a new video featuring something [redacted] to hopefully share soon, Light willing


"Nothing Sunday (saving our copper for now)"
"our copper" as in "their $$". Show runner production budget =/= Amazon Prime advertisement budget.
 

"We're working on a new video".

Doesn't mean someone else isn't working on something, even if it's just the show's logo spliced into a slide-show.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that IF amazon does a big "coming to Prime 2021-22" ad, that Rafe hasn't seen exactly what they're putting together, or that they can even talk about it.

Edited by SinisterDeath
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On 2/3/2021 at 9:35 AM, king of nowhere said:

i, for one, am glad there's no trailer for the superbowl. first, i would have a hard time imagining much overlapping between superbowl audience and wot audience. but most important, if that 30 seconds ad is worth 5 million dollars - and i have a hard time conceiving any single 30 seconds ad, no matter how many people it reaches, increase revenues by 5 millions to justify its placement - that would be 5% of the whole budget. and i'd rather have them spend 5% of the budget to improve the show than for a single 5 seconds advertising.

 

that said, a trailer at this general time would have been nice.

 

The commonly held notion of the budget of WoT based on the tax credits is I believe way off. My guess is that the budget is in the $200 million range. That said I don't think SB would be a good use of resources.

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On 2/3/2021 at 8:09 PM, SinisterDeath said:


That's hard to say when it comes to Producers, Studios, and all those involved.
Showrunners constantly clash with those people daily over everything. Specially when executive producers promise garbage to investors. 
 


"Nothing Sunday (saving our copper for now)"
"our copper" as in "their $$". Show runner production budget =/= Amazon Prime advertisement budget.
 

"We're working on a new video".

Doesn't mean someone else isn't working on something, even if it's just the show's logo spliced into a slide-show.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that IF amazon does a big "coming to Prime 2021-22" ad, that Rafe hasn't seen exactly what they're putting together, or that they can even talk about it.

Yeah, I agree with most of that.  I wouldn't necessarily put it quite so cynically, I think if Rafe had any serious objections to including it, they'd probably maybe listen to him.  I don't know why he would, though.  I do think he'd be at least in the loop about it.  Maybe not have seen it, but at least has been made aware of it and has the general idea of it.  And I think if it is happening, your last sentence is probably accurate, they wouldn't be allowed to talk about it.

 

I dunno why it matters, though.  WoT's inclusion in such a promo spot would be the transcendent epitome of 'meh.'  For me at least.  It would be absolutely irrelevant to any of the questions about the series I have, unless they throw up the month it will be released along with all the other shows they highlight.  And I don't think they will.

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17 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

WoT's inclusion in such a promo spot would be the transcendent epitome of 'meh.'  

I'm quite looking forward to seeing the official series title card, which is what I imagine any such promo spot would be.  But obviously everyone's mileage will vary.

 

The German language Prime Account tweeted about WoT today, which may signal a larger marketing effort is imminent.

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There might be some sort of combo commercial, especially if the Expanse is ending in the fall, Carnival Rowe is coming back, LotR and WOT are coming, the boys and probably others, plus movies, they may want to do something.

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On 2/5/2021 at 3:53 PM, Thrasymachus said:

I dunno why it matters, though.  WoT's inclusion in such a promo spot would be the transcendent epitome of 'meh.'  For me at least.  It would be absolutely irrelevant to any of the questions about the series I have, unless they throw up the month it will be released along with all the other shows they highlight.  And I don't think they will.

For one, no one "cares" about the football game. Millions of people watch it just for the ads and the half-time show. Then, Monday morning, millions more go to YouTube to check out "superbowl Commercials", including "new trailers/teasers". Getting it put into a "top 20 list" of "coming to theaters/tv 2021/22 is great for getting exposure out there that this is a thing.


Hell, if Amazon does a teaser/trailer for something like Lord of the Rings, with something like "and more great shows coming soon", with those shows' title cards with release dates and/or Quarters Years, (Q1 2022) people will be excited, and it'll reach even more people simply because "Lotr".

Something like this, isn't anything we want to know, but it's crucial for the show to get a fan base to anticipate it's release, subscribe to Amazon to watch it.

 

https://twitter.com/WOTonPrime only has ~59k followers at the moment. If we multiply that number by 10 for "WoT Fans", that's still only 590k potential fans. Not enough to keep this show going.

 

Edited by SinisterDeath
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I wonder how much of a hit Super Bowl viewership will take this year, given that the COVID restrictions will put a damper on the parties. People who don't care about either of the teams, but still liked going to a party, betting on squares, getting lit and eating nachos might forget that the game is even on.

 

I would love to see something WoT related today, but my guess is that is unlikely given the tweet from last week. That being said, I think the next offering (the new video they referred to) is going to be something far more significant than what we've seen to date. 

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If the show was coming out in the next three months, then that argument would make more sense.  That they would be ramping up the mainstream hype levels to pull in viewers.  I don't think you can extrapolate viewership from twitter followers, though.  At least, it's not that simple.  Carnival Row has a couple million viewers, but fewer people follow their twitter than follow WoT's.

 

And Amazon doesn't need a Superbowl spot to hype a LotR series that's not even going to air for at least another 9 months.  But then, they don't really need a Superbowl spot at all.  If they have one, it'll be to show off that they can afford it, more than to actually sell anything.  Indeed the economics of Superbowl ads is such that they usually affect stock price more than real sales volume.  If a company can afford a Superbowl spot at all, they're already at or near the top of their market, in terms of volume and penetration, to begin with.  Which is why if Amazon does have a spot that includes a WoT reference, it will be as part of a series of clips of a bunch of their shows.  A little, "Look how great Prime is, look at all these shows and movies coming.  Better get/keep your subscription so you don't miss out" kind of thing.

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16 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

Which is why if Amazon does have a spot that includes a WoT reference, it will be as part of a series of clips of a bunch of their shows.  A little, "Look how great Prime is, look at all these shows and movies coming.  Better get/keep your subscription so you don't miss out" kind of thing.

Which is what I was expecting they'd do. Instead they just reran their Alexa's Body ad again.

 

16 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

And Amazon doesn't need a Superbowl spot to hype a LotR series that's not even going to air for at least another 9 months. 

Why would hyping a series 9 months in advance be a bad thing? Shows routinely hype up with teasers, trailers many months before release.

 

Our next possibilities are probably Dragon/Jordan Con or Comic Con.

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Because LotR sells itself.  Because memories, especially of things like upcoming TV shows, are short.  At least for the non-obsessed potential audience.  This far out, doing much more than letting the potential audience know it's coming (which has already been announced) is throwing money in a hole and setting it on fire.  They're just better off saving those marketing dollars for when they'll do some good, no more than a couple of months ahead of the release, and ramping up through the actual release.

 

And yeah, I didn't see a "coming this year on Prime" commercial.  I didn't think the odds of it were very good to begin with.  @WoTonPrime saying nothing was coming Sunday and not hinting that we should look for an appearance in such a clip-show commercial was pretty good reason not to expect it.

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I thought it would be logical to use the Super Bowl as a vehicle. But it's really not all that necessary in the grand scheme of things. They have an entirely captive audience on their service, which means the WoT trailer - when it's released - will be seen by everyone who watches anything on Prime. (Hence me seeing 10,000 ads for "Flack" over the last 3 days)

 

In that sense, the choice to go with lighter fare (Michael B. Jordan as Alexa) and nostalgia (Coming to America 2) is smart. They're playing for 2 demographics that will be key to WoT's success: women and the age cohort who were in middle school and high school when EotW was published (Coming to America debuted in 1988 - EotW was published in 1990. These folks are in their late 40's - early 50's now.) The theory being to get more of those demographics tuning into Prime Video and then bombarding them with WoT content once they are captive.

 

I still think we are going to have a trailer soon. Like by the end of the month soon. @Thrasymachus - I want you to know that I appreciate you not rubbing my nose in my prior bad predictions. We will see how this one pans out. 

Edited by Elder_Haman
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I'm saving 'em all up for an utterly devastating "I told you so" in November.

 

I don't think we'll be getting an actual trailer until June at the very earliest, but more likely August, possibly even as late as September.  But then, I'm going on the assumption that a late November release is the most likely, at least late-ish Fall.  I think between now and then, we'll continue to get clips from their behind-the-scenes documentary, and maybe a few character, prop, costume, set, music or special effects highlights sprinkled in. 

 

Really, my hope is merely that you don't get frustrated with continually hoping for more and only getting these drips and drabs (or nothing at all, as in this Superbowl case) as these next few months wear on, and that you don't make others frustrated by getting their hopes up with yours.

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