Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

[WWWwombat]

I blame the CBA.

[Talya]

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count 13:

 

Verb (1/7): Rand

Laine (1/7): Dice

Hally (2/7) Thane, Pralaya

Tayla(1/7) Zander

Rand (5/7) Shad, Tayla, Aj, Hally, Yates

 

Not Voting (3/13):

BFG, Verb, Laine,

 

For reference

 

 

I'd bet 2 wolves in the oranges based on wagonomics.  Wolves tend to bury votes on each other D1, or at least bury their vote on a meaningless or impossible lynch.  If I had to choose who to lynch D2 based ONLY on this quote, I'd lynch Rand.  He had a meaningless vote on D1, and in what I've read of him in my catchup, I see multiple FoSes and "intent to vote"-type posts, but I see his vote remained on me.....which was useless.  Add to that his lynch did not go through.  Wolves tend to easily nudge D1 mislynches through, but to have this stall (I don't know yet if there were other reasons for this, btw) makes me think the village might have had a wolf in their sights.

 

More to come on this theory.

 

QFT. All three orange in fact :)

 

 

Yeah but my WIM was gone by the time I was getting mislynched, and I didn't have the time/inclination to go back and dig up the reasons and properly case.  So I accept that mislynch as necessary to dig deeper into the POE - kinda why AJ self-hammered as well.

 

All good, it worked out in the end.

 

gg town

 

gg scum, especially Talya (you all played well, but she 100% fooled me)

 

thanks mods!

 

 

Thank you that means a lot

 

Thoughts on setup?  I think the mafia would have been much better served backloading their NK's at least somewhat but they prob also need 1 more kill, maybe a single team kill that isn't tied to a player.  Town I like as is.

 

I realised this too late, lesson learnt here, keep hold of them, lol

 

Thanks to Darthe and Seph for an excellent game

[csarmi]

Pretty sure town has much better chances than mafia. They got more power roles than the mafia have shots... 

Everyone is talking about how the vigs could have ruined town, as if vigs were a negative power (they are a strong town role and positive).

 

Yea with all the vigs misfiring town may be in trouble.

But mafia has absolutely no defense against being wiped out entirely on N1 with some lucky vig shots. They can play the best game possible and be severaly damaged or killed if they just fail to fool the "right people". And you can't fool everyone.

 

Of course with town so set on holstering it never could happen.

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

vigs are a negative utility. that's why everyone always talks about them as if they're a negative utility.

 

i don't think maf had a great shot without at least one and maybe all shots tied to the team. they did very well, some very good distancing there, but they were declawed pretty fast.

 

it was a good game, but I think it got long for the players and darthe.

 

great save on your spot, sili, and great job at end game, BFG. I thought thanes mislynch was in the bag there.

[csarmi]

LOL Cindy you kidding right? No vigs are not a negative utility. They can't be, by definition, as you aren't forced to shoot.

 

Town controlled shot is great. That some people don't know how to vig is a different story.

[csarmi]

FTR: even compulsive vig is a positive utility by far.

[Cory Caboose]

Guns don't kill people, people kill people

 

People are negative utility

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

Vigs kill townies more than mafia. It's plain old math, csarmi, you should get that.

 

Silly mad theories.

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

I love this from mafiascum

 

The best play as a Vigilante is to shoot scum. This requires the Vig to find scum. There is no easy way to do this. However, because of their ability to make or break entire games depending on who they target, Vigs are frequently lauded and/or blamed for their decisions beyond appropriate proportions. Thus, as a Vig your best bet is to make decisions that will not cause you to be hated by every other player in the game. If in doubt, shoot a player that people would want to policy lynch (e.g. lurkers).

 

[Andrej]

Zander should read that.

[Andrej]

Guns don't kill people, people kill people

 

People are negative utility

Troof

[Cory Caboose]

Killing a villager isn't necessarily -EV if it will save a mislynch later and refocus the village PoE. It's still a town-guided kill.

 

And yeah, you will kill more villagers than mafia on average because NUMBERS, but the affect on win chances for a vigged villager vs. the affect on win chances for a dead mafia are very different. Your win equity substantial goes up if you hit mafia and goes down only a tad if you hit a vanilla villager. Like the difference between a solo shot and a strike-out in the third inning of a tied game.

 

Ofc if you vig a town PR, then you can just get right the hell out

[Cory Caboose]

Zander should read that.

 

The only time I remember him being vigilante he killed Darthe, so I would guess he understands that better than anyone.

 

 

The heart wants what the heart wants.

 

[Zander?]

I love this from mafiascum

 

The best play as a Vigilante is to shoot scum. This requires the Vig to find scum. There is no easy way to do this. However, because of their ability to make or break entire games depending on who they target, Vigs are frequently lauded and/or blamed for their decisions beyond appropriate proportions. Thus, as a Vig your best bet is to make decisions that will not cause you to be hated by every other player in the game. If in doubt, shoot a player that people would want to policy lynch (e.g. lurkers).

 

 

 

Zander should read that.

 

lolollololololol.  RIP Darthe!!!

[Zander?]

 

Zander should read that.

 

The only time I remember him being vigilante he killed Darthe, so I would guess he understands that better than anyone.

 

 

The heart wants what the heart wants.

 

 

 

[csarmi]

 

Zander should read that.

 

The only time I remember him being vigilante he killed Darthe, so I would guess he understands that better than anyone.

 

 

The heart wants what the heart wants.

 

 

 

When in doubt, shoot Darthe.

[csarmi]

Killing a villager isn't necessarily -EV if it will save a mislynch later and refocus the village PoE. It's still a town-guided kill.

 

And yeah, you will kill more villagers than mafia on average because NUMBERS, but the affect on win chances for a vigged villager vs. the affect on win chances for a dead mafia are very different. Your win equity substantial goes up if you hit mafia and goes down only a tad if you hit a vanilla villager. Like the difference between a solo shot and a strike-out in the third inning of a tied game.

 

Ofc if you vig a town PR, then you can just get right the hell out

 

Also Vig is very strong in endgames. This F4 is an autowin for village here regardless of whether mafia has a kill left if Dice has a gun. Lynch one uncertain, shoot the other.

[Sili Quirrels]

vigilantes are elements of variance, but i think generally they are +ev to have. Basically better than nothing.

[Cory Caboose]

Sili is technically correct

 

The best form of correct

[Shad_]

I would have totally vigged Darthe N1 in my first ever game.  It takes a little experience to understand his play I suppose. 

[Cory Caboose]

But why would you want to

[WWWwombat]

 

 

Zander should read that.

 

The only time I remember him being vigilante he killed Darthe, so I would guess he understands that better than anyone.

 

 

The heart wants what the heart wants.

 

 

 

When in doubt, shoot Darthe.

 

 

Incorrect.

[Clovdyx]

I have thoughts on vigs.

[WWWwombat]

Shooters gotta shoot imo.

[Clovdyx]

Shooters gotta shoot imo.

That's what Verb told me in AitP.