House of Cards

[Verbal32]

I have you as a villager, but I admit I'm worried you switched your read at a convenient time when I was taking reasonable heat from consensus villagers.

 

I feel like if I'm misclearing someone, it would be you.

[Verbal32]

Buuuut, I'm voting for the guy I've been angling towards all day.

 

[v]Wombat[/v]

[Andrej]

 

Hate that VT claim from AJ.

 

I just find it amusing that the advocate party of late seer cover ends up going back on his seer cover choice. lol

 

This would happen to me. Especially if Verb is a wolf

 

DMafia^TM

[dicetosser1]

Okay Nyn, like I promised. I should've probably reread the entire ISO you did before I did this one, but whatever.

 

These are the posts from Verb that I liked as D1 went along and why I picked him to be my peek. I was trying to feel things out for myself and it seemed we might be on the same page regarding some players.

 

 

 

 

 

Wombat townie.

 

My list is now (not in order save me/Tress)

Darthe

Tress

Clov

Cory

Kaylee

Wombat

Verbal (forgot him last list I think)

 

Leelou

AJ

 

Nyn/Hally

Sooh

 

I like your list, but I'm not sure I agree on Wombat as town yet.  I thought I had a couple of his quotes in my MQ list, but I guess not.  I'll go dig for them.

 

I liked the direction Verb was moving in towards Wombat. I was finding him questionable at the time, and still somewhat do.

 

Pre-publishing edit: I had Verb's WOT addressing Wombat's progression on Kaylee quoted but apparently I hit the max when I previewed the post so now I am taking it out.

 

Let me state this another way:  I don't care how I treated any playstyle shift with you in another game.  I only care about how I'm trying to read you in this game.  You made a post about changing things up.

 

If I ignore that post, I'd say I'm a little suspicious of you thus far.  You're not trying to lead the town, and you look to be slightly pocketing my villa peek.  If I'm the Seer, this means it should make sense that I'm suspicious of you.  If I'm vanilla, then I'd be slightly less suspicious, so maybe yellow-ish.  If I'm a wolf, then I'm in trouble because I've provided fake cover on Darthe and am not choosing to take the easy path of townreading you and moving on.  Regardless of which of the 3 are true, I should become pretty obvious one way or the other pretty soon.

 

If I take that post into account, I can't really say the above because it could easily be you stepping back on purpose like you said.  So it leaves me unable to have a read on you until I can come to grips with this supposed playstyle change.  Hope that made sense.

 

I thought this was a pretty good response to Cory in their exchange. Again - similar wariness towards the same players made me feel decent about Verb.

 

My peek was Verb btw.

 

 

 

 

Flying V

 

 

 

 

You can see the timestamp of my peek. Giving Verb's post a cursory glance and seeing we were saying / seeing similar things made me feel good enough about naming him as my N0 peek. After that I sort of stopped paying attention to his posts because I wanted to play as if I knew he was town and progress from there.

 

 

It'll be funny if later after me telling people to hold off on their seer cover for better peeks I'm the one who ended up fake peeking a wolf.

 

These are the posts liked / didn't like afterwards. 

 

 

 

 

 

Can you bring up some Wombat posts that made you feel that way from before his posts now?

 

I'd like to see this as well - I'm getting the opposite read from Wombat.  I have him as slight wolf lean.

 

Still maintaining his scum read on Wombat. This was one that at the time I liked.

 

 

 

So basically what you're saying is that wombat at Clov can't be read?... seems awfully simplified, but ok...

 

I am saying they are both players who keep their ranges extremely consistent and are very difficult to read accurately on d1

 

Just how it is

 

This is true, but Wombat's scum tells become apparent in the mid-game.  I've been pretty successful in identifying them recently, so my confidence level there is high.  I have him as a light wolf lean, and it'll become very clear to me by the time we're ready to make a decision one way or the other.

 

More talk about Wombat maybe being scum. This one sort of gives me pause looking at it again and it carries throughout Verb's posts to come. Wombat is definitely still in my possible scum list at this point and dropping cover I'm starting to question Verb as well. They have both sort of maintained a hazy scum read on the other but that's about it. Could mean something - maybe nothing but I think it's worth noting.

 

I'm gonna chime in on this one, too.  I'm confident in my ability to read Leelou.  In recent games, my reads and her alignment have gone like this:

 

I read her wolfy and it grows over time = she ends up being a wolf

I read her wolfy and it starts to dwindle over time = she ends up being a villager

I read her as a villager and it starts to dwindle over time = prob about 50/50 and where I'm wrong the most

I read her as a villager and it grows over time = she ends up being a villager

 

So I'm only worried about that 3rd line there.  The other times, I've been extremely accurate with her.  My misses have been in that villager-->wolf progression.  I don't have a real read on her yet, but I expect that to change soon as she said she'd be digging into the thread.  FWIW, snap read on the little content thus far is villager simply because of her defense of Dice.  She's not going to dance around seer cover and how to defend your peek and attack -- she's just going to attack and be blunt about it.  It is her style.  So initial village points for that.  More to come.

 

This post is well said at least. I think Leelou is probably town as well.

 

 

I have to run in a few min, but I plan on being available via phone for EOD.  Just in case, I'm going to place my vote now.

 

[v]Sooh[/v]

 

Did not seeing anything from Wombat or Cass to make me move them ahead of Sooh for my WTL.  Part of this is my emotional scarring from the incident in the JN game I explained, and part of it is that I really think my linking of Sooh/Cass is accurate.  I think Sooh is the more likely wolf, but I'm confident one of them is either way.

 

So this one might be important if Verb is w/w with Wombat. This is a post he made after voting Sooh to explain why he picked her over his other scum reads Wombat and Cass. The bit about Cass and Sooh being opposite alignments doesn't look good if Cass is a villager here, which I am starting to consider as a possibility. Not a huge one yet, but either way one's flip will say something about the other.

 

Best wishes to anybody going through rl stuff. :-(

 

I'm off work today and have a ton of stuff to do so I won't be on much until later. I'll keep up via phone.

 

I rolled the dice last night and stuck with my peek of Cory. I won't be giving you crap anymore now, heh.

 

I'm also sticking to my guns from yesterday - I thought Sooh was the wolf, but Cass was the wolf in my mind if Sooh flipped villager. I'll pull up the quotes later, but them not being on the same team was screaming out as obvious to me.

 

[v]Cass[/v]

 

Votes Cass toDay to remain consistent with the one or the other theory. Not a huge fan of this post for that reason. 

 

 

If you are still here, can you tell me what you think of Wombat and Clov's most recent posts?

For Dingbat, I need to read him today still. He was in my WTL yesterday, and I haven't noticed anything today to change that....but he's a subtle player so I need to read him with a more critical eye.

 

For Clov, seriously, he's as close to a blue I can have outside of peeking him villager. His feelings on Cory are ones I shared before today. If I'm not the Seer and never peeked Cory, then I'm light blue on Cory with a lot of tinfoil at the ready.....and I really like how Clov is interacting with him.

 

Answering Leelou about Womby/Clov. Again - keeping that distance from Wombat. Talking about having him WTL but still needs to look closer at him, etc.

 

 

Verb, why didn't you think Sooh/Cass could be V/V?

 

Why should I have you as town?

That's a really good question and now I'm wondering why myself. I'll need to go back to that sequence on my computer - please don't let me forget this.

 

Maybe this can offer some clarity moving forward. Sooh did flip villager and I'm considering Cass as one potentially so now I'm wondering if Verb was just linking early ~consensus scum reads for ammo to continue scum reading them later.

 

 

 

 

Dropping seer cover and looking at Verb again with an objective eye I think he could be scum - or at least probably should be considered. I'm not any more confident on him than my other potential suspects, but I need to start deciding. I felt good enough about him early on to make him my N0 peek but looking again without the bias some of his later posts leading into EOD1 and the direction he is moving in today make me question my quick read.

 

I'm going to work under the assumption that Cory is town.

 

These are the players I think ~are town.

 

AJ

Nyn

Clov

Cory

Tress

Leelou

Kaylee

 

Dice

Cass

Verbal

Wombat

 

I am going to drop all cover and claim VT in this situation. If Verb is a wolf then he and his team already know I'm not the seer so I'm not going to pretend and play from that perspective anymore.

 

My town group being that big probably means that I'm misclearing someone(s) because I would be surprised if all three wolves are in my bottom four but that is something for later and if I'm wrong on anyone in the bottom that will shed light elsewhere accordingly.

 

Dice is closer to the town group than Cass for me, but that spot is likely interchangeable depending on how both of them continue.

 

Verbal/Wombat. Could probably go either way here. I don't think this pair will be v/v in most situations but w/w could be a possibility. v/w also possible and both I am sort of mixed on which could be expected I suppose given who they are. I go back and forth on them. Verb was an early town read and Wombat scum, now it has kind of blended. Wombat's more recent posts addressing me directly make me second guess the early scum read just like Verb's later posts have me doubting my town read.

 

Dont like the blue and the red feels like ure playing me.

 

I'm town.

 

Nyn you are making a lot of assumptions on your own to color your read. I never said Verb was my top town read. I pointed out why I thought he could be reasonably townish before making him my peek and keep it from seeming too obviously fake. For instance I think I had picked you it would be sort of obvious. I thought Verb looked townish enough so picking him ~randomly felt more natural. Once I put him as my peek I admittedly sidelined him just because I wanted to appear genuine in "knowing" he was a villager.

 

Literally the only reason I dropped cover is because I felt I could be wrong after reevaluation from your ISO and my other town reads becoming more firm. I felt it better I come clean than pretend at that point.

 

I am at training but will be off hopefully in the next 2 hours and won't miss DL which I believe is tonight? Either way, I'll be back in a while.

 

I dont believe you.

[Verbal32]

I have you as a villager, but I admit I'm worried you switched your read at a convenient time when I was taking reasonable heat from consensus villagers.

 

I feel like if I'm misclearing someone, it would be you.

I think we are missing another interpretation of you dropping cover: that you could be a wolf and are switching on me and claiming VT to explain why you'll be alive another day and also to drive a (mis)lynch on me tomorrow.

 

From my POV as a villager, you doing what you did obviously eliminates you from being the Seer (the Seer can't have a guilty peek on me this game), but it does make you possibly a wolf. I can't see a villager switching like that without some huge slip from his fake peek. I have no slip to make, so that's not it. It could be just a bad decision as a villager, I know that. But you could also be a wolf, which would mean I miscleared you. I'm not sure...I still want you to be a villager, but I'm tinfoiling on you currently as a result of your posts today.

[Andrej]

Idk if that was a hammer or not - OP says there aren't majority lynches this game but VC said 6 to lynch. I guess we'll here from Yates one way or the other.

 

I figured that argument would be brought up eventually, Verb. And tbh the fact that some of my stronger (and real) town reads were starting to voice concern over you I figured I should probably look into myself.

 

I think you could be scum still. This is fluid based on some other flips, as a lot of my reads are. If you just hammered Wombat there and he flips villager that isn't going to be a good look at all. If you just hammered him and he flips scum - I still might think you were bussing since you have been pushing other suspects over him.

[dicetosser1]

I was wary of AJs early seer cover stuff. Seemed like he was trying to step into a Town Leader role which I noticed last game where he helped sweep for the mafia. Im finding myself iffy on his tone and i dont like that. Fact is if he was town, even with me struggling this game I should see  it clearly and im not.

 

 

Problem is I dont see AJ shooting Darthe unless Tress is mafia and i have no read on Tress obviously.

 

 

I hate this game.

[Andrej]

Idk what to tell you Dice. If you're a villager you are wrong.

 

I'm probably having a horrible game but D1 legitimately threw me off and since then I am just spinning in circles trying to figure the game out. I am STILL paranoid we are being duped and that this village is going to rip itself apart looking for the wolves while the real ones just kick back in the 'town' circle.

[Andrej]

Verb - do you think there's any chance Wombat flips town here?

[Andrej]

 

I have you as a villager, but I admit I'm worried you switched your read at a convenient time when I was taking reasonable heat from consensus villagers.

 

I feel like if I'm misclearing someone, it would be you.

I think we are missing another interpretation of you dropping cover: that you could be a wolf and are switching on me and claiming VT to explain why you'll be alive another day and also to drive a (mis)lynch on me tomorrow.

 

From my POV as a villager, you doing what you did obviously eliminates you from being the Seer (the Seer can't have a guilty peek on me this game), but it does make you possibly a wolf. I can't see a villager switching like that without some huge slip from his fake peek. I have no slip to make, so that's not it. It could be just a bad decision as a villager, I know that. But you could also be a wolf, which would mean I miscleared you. I'm not sure...I still want you to be a villager, but I'm tinfoiling on you currently as a result of your posts today.

 

That's perfectly valid from your perspective whether it's innocent or 'innocent'. Either way - I am now polarized into one of those two roles and yes, what you say about me not getting killed is true - at least not until after the Seer dies. If one of their peeks then wolves need to kill me, if not then I'm not a priority. Sort of sucks as I get the feeling this game is going to be one that sends me on tons of ups and downs.

[Andrej]

Like - where's the anxiety right now? I am legit tense the more I think and think about this game.

 

I feel like I'm the only one sitting here wondering wtf is gonna happen.

[Nynaeve]

Like - where's the anxiety right now? I am legit tense the more I think and think about this game.

 

I feel like I'm the only one sitting here wondering wtf is gonna happen.

 

You're not the only one

[Verbal32]

Verb - do you think there's any chance Wombat flips town here?

Of course there's a chance, but I think it is reasonably small. I told Leelou I needed to read over Wombat with more scrutiny, and I snuck on my phone this afternoon to reread my original D1 case and his D2 posts.

 

In short, he's in snipe mode. I don't associate that with his village game, and I've caught him before on this.

[Andrej]

The snipe thing is the impression I got as well D1 and one of the reasons why I felt good about you early on.

 

What do you think of the interaction with him and Cory?

 

I want input from anyone on this as well.

[Andrej]

"For seeming to pick up the same vibe"

 

I should add to that line in the first sentence above.

[Songstress]

I'm home, and pretty much caught up although I did a fair amount of skimming on my phone while traveling today.

 

I'm also extremely grumpy because my cats are whining at me and my computers are giving me fits, and I have a developing headache.

 

Shooting from the hip, some comments/read changes:

 

I'm still not seeing Town!Dice and this is pushing him down to a mild scum lean for the time being..

 

Thinking at least one of Wombat and Verbal is mafia, if not both.

 

I don't have a problem with AJ's dropping seer cover under the circumstances.  And to reiterate, he was my N0 peek if I am seer.

 

Speaking of peeks, if I am seer, Cass is town.

 

Feeling much more comfortable with Cory as town today, especially after he got past the early day pity party .   Really really did not like Wombat's push on him.

 

Still believing Kaylee is town.

 

Leelou looking more and more comfortably town to me.

 

Still not sure what to do with Clov.  If Dice, Wombat or Verb is town, Clov could be in the mix.

[Verbal32]

The snipe thing is the impression I got as well D1 and one of the reasons why I felt good about you early on.

 

What do you think of the interaction with him and Cory?

 

I want input from anyone on this as well.

His interaction with Cory felt more like annoyed wolf than it did frustrated villager. He's kinda jerky as a wolf and witty/snarky as a villager.

[Nynaeve]

I feel a bit better about AJ after his response. Verbal's response still sucks balls. 

[Nynaeve]

The snipe thing is the impression I got as well D1 and one of the reasons why I felt good about you early on.

 

What do you think of the interaction with him and Cory?

 

I want input from anyone on this as well.

 

I'm gonna come back to this tomorrow when I wake up. Need to ISO to look it over and it's late here and I'm tired.

[Nynaeve]

I'm home, and pretty much caught up although I did a fair amount of skimming on my phone while traveling today.

 

I'm also extremely grumpy because my cats are whining at me and my computers are giving me fits, and I have a developing headache.

 

Shooting from the hip, some comments/read changes:

 

I'm still not seeing Town!Dice and this is pushing him down to a mild scum lean for the time being..

 

Thinking at least one of Wombat and Verbal is mafia, if not both.

 

I don't have a problem with AJ's dropping seer cover under the circumstances.  And to reiterate, he was my N0 peek if I am seer.

 

Speaking of peeks, if I am seer, Cass is town.

 

Feeling much more comfortable with Cory as town today, especially after he got past the early day pity party .   Really really did not like Wombat's push on him.

 

Still believing Kaylee is town.

 

Leelou looking more and more comfortably town to me.

 

Still not sure what to do with Clov.  If Dice, Wombat or Verb is town, Clov could be in the mix.

 

We're on the same page about most of our reads. Makes me feel like I'm not crazy lol

[Yates]

Vote Count 2.3

 

Wombat: Andrej, Kaylee, Bewbs McGee, Clovdyx, cory caboose, Verbal32

cory caboose: WWWwombat

Andrej: Leelou

 

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

 

Deadline:

[Kaylee]

 

 

Like - where's the anxiety right now? I am legit tense the more I think and think about this game.

 

I feel like I'm the only one sitting here wondering wtf is gonna happen.

You're not the only one

Just got home. I'm there too.

[Cory Caboose]

[unvote]

[Cory Caboose]

[v]Wombat[/b]

 

 

CORY CABOOSE

 

[Cory Caboose]

...

 

[v]Wombat[/v]

 

 

lolcory