A Song of Fire & Ice Book Discussion Thread (Up To Dance With Dragons)

[Hallow]

Troll.

[MattTaz]

Nope, just pissed off!!!

You'll see

[Red2111]

given the hisotry of this novel, both plot wise and writer wise; why would you expect DwD's to be nice

 

if anything i wouldn't be surpised if he kills off half the characters and speeds up the timeline to make it easier for him to write it

[Red2111]

the DwD's thread is offically up My link

 

 

please post all spoiler discussion there form now. any spoilers posted on this thread (with or without the tags) will be moved to the appropriate thread for the next few months.

[Rufae]

GRRM was on the radio doing a 20 min or so interview on NPR tonight to promote Dance with Dragons. He answered much of the usual faire of questions, but some hardcore fans might want to hear it. I think they podcast it on NPR website under the show, "On Point".

 

As a Wheel of Time sidenote, the interviewer mentioned that his fans did not want him to "pull a Jordan and die before completing his work". GRRM took some offense to that and called the comment callous. That was towards the end of the interview.

[Red2111]

i think he's comment on that specific comment before as being not only demented but also disrespectful to Jordan's memory as well.

 

 

as a WoT fan before an ASOF&I i have to say that comment doesn't reflect very well on the people who state it. RJ's passing is still something us WoT fans feel, especially when a new book comes out; and we count ourselves very lucky harriet foudn a great Author to complete this wonderful series for us.

 

 

i mean, they say it like RJ planned to end the dream (to quote the Aiel). if i had heard anyone say this while in line for buying DwD's yesturday i most liely would have given them a piece of my mind for sure and made them feel about an inch tall.

[Gentled Ben]

Wert! Is that you getting mention in the dedication? How cool is that?

[Werthead]

Necrothread!

 

Bantam have confirmed that THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE should be out on 29 October this year. This is a 288-page companion guide to the books, a large-format coffee table book featuring significant amounts of new artwork and vast amounts of new canon information on the world and backstory. George R.R. Martin wrote some new material for this book but otherwise only provided background notes and information. Elio Garcia and Linda Antonsson, the founders/admins of Westeros.org, wrote the bulk of the book drawing on GRRM's material. The book will also clarify some of the new locations revealed on last year's LANDS OF ICE AND FIRE maps.

Preview pages:

The Dawn Age.
The Children of the Forest.
The Faith Militant Uprising.
King's Landing (with auto-generated text, so not representative of the final book).

[False Dragon1991]

You know I think GRR Martin is overhyping Danys eventual invasion of Westeros.

 

I've read that originally, George was only ever going to write a trilogy. The second of which would have been Dance with Dragons and dealt with the conflicts of Danys invasion of Westeros. When I first got into the series, this is more or less what I supposed would happen with the character. There would be at least a book in which Danys invasion would be the central thing happening; in exactly the same way as the War of Five Kings impacts almost every character in Clash of Kings. All before moving on to the real story with the Others; which I don't want to downplay at all. However, Martin seems to think the best thing to do is to have Danys invasion in the final novel. There is absolutely no way she is getting to Westeros in Winds of WInter. Otherwise he wouldn't have begun a new plot with the Dothraki and foreshadowed dealings in Volantis. I don't think it is even possible for Martin to meet expectations for this event anymore. People will likely have been waiting for this for over twenty years and as something that's been building for six novels. Look at just the prologue to AFFC. I think one of the first sentences begins with "Dragons" and we get all this build up with the Ironborn and Martell plots. We then have in Dragons all these people trying to get to Dany. This is a lot of effort and especially in the most recent books it is very heavily foreshadowed; even to the point of Jon making prophetic jokes. 

 

.More to the point, I don't think Martin intended for it to come across this way. There is a deliberate effort to separate Danys arc from events in Westeros to the point where she hasn't learnt any post Game of Thrones information and discussions about Westeros are deliberately dead ends like with Barristan or so vague they make no sense. Martin doesn't want to give any insight into Danys inclinations or attitudes towards Westeros or what she will do when she is there. This is Martin making mystery and suspense for the sake of it; a bit like how he doesn't tell you how many soldiers are fighting at Slavers Bay for some inexplicable reason.  I would be so disappointed if this were just simply a case of plopping Dany in Westeros and then she goes straight to the wall or can't actually fight because its Winter. The man, has a habit of subverting expectations and I wouldn't like if he had Dany find the continent in ice and this real melancholic return where she finds her army starving after building it up  for so many books or she doesn't make much of an impact. I do wonder if he is building expectations only to dash them and have her invasion flop deliberately.   

 

As an aside, I think Martin has really messed up Danys plot and his decision to simply slap her invasion into the final book is a dreadful decision because everyone knows the war with the others will take absolute precedence in that book. I just don't understand why Martin hasn't cottoned on that people really do not like his Essosi material and that Danys ADWD chapters are near universally reviled to the point of unintended character assassination.  

 

 

You know I would absolutely have preferred if Dany had had a more low key invasion with 5000 men and three young dragons. Then let her spend one or two  books in Westeros before the Others arrive as she struggles to retake the throne. Instead he has went down the road of overhyping this big finale to her arc rather than just evolving it slowly. He spent five books being cryptic every time Westeros comes up, I don't know why he is determined to only have a few paragraphs of Dany in Westeros in the final book.  

 

Its like, if Elayne finally got to Andor in Memory of Light and had to share her arc with the Last Battle. Obviously, this is going to diminish Elayne arc. The War for the Dawn and the Others is the North and the Starks story. Jon is AA reborn. Danys presence with Dragons is as incidental as Tyrion having all the Lannister armies with him to fight the Others. Who gives a shit if Dany invades Westeros and wants to fight Aegon (not that there will be any time or material to do these events justice anyway) if the Snow Elves have started the apocalypse? He would be relegating Danys invasion to a side show even though he has been building it up for six novels. I think ever since ASOS that series just went downhill real fast and everything Martin has said since then only seems to confirm that. I really dislike how he wants to focus on her journey through the lands of Essos and considers her eventual arrival to Westeros as just something at the very final part of her arc.

[Plato]

This is Dragonmount.com, everytime we hear an author say "It will only take this many books.." we just sit and laugh and continue reading our own silly 2,000,000+ word count epic...

[False Dragon1991]

Yeah I think he bit off more than he can chew with Crows and Dragons. If he had to turn his first book and act into a trilogy then obviously he is going to have to extend his origionally planned second and third acts. Crows and Dragons were about him explaining what happenened between act 1 and 2; its largely a prelude to the second act. If an outrageously long one that ends on so many jarring cliff hangers.

[Werthead]

I really want to see Dany invade Westeros. Its been on the cards since the first book. Martin has twice had her just about to do this and prevented her. Once because of Mirri Maz Duur and again with the Demon Road preventing a straightforward march to the sea with her unsullied. Thats twice that a dues ex machina has been invoked to prevent Dany getting there. So, not only does Dany spend the whole book in Mereen, a seperate issue entirely, but Martin brings up several seperate subplots which he clearly wants to explore before he considers Dany invading Westeros. Again, Mereen would not be that bad if I knew that once she wins, she can just leave by sea the way Aegon does. However we are told that 100 ships (the Iron fleet being only 70 strong) will not be enough to move her army. But the subplots Martin introduces are as follows...

 

I don't think you need to worry about Dany staying Essos for much longer. The original plan for this part of the story was to have Daenerys head for Westeros, and she must do so fairly quickly. Even if we're assuming eight books rather than seven, Dany still needs to get a move on. If it's seven, she's can't be in Essos much more than for a couple of chapters in TWoW. Unless the plan is for Dany's invasion and the Others' invasion to be simultaneous but both wrapped up in a few chapters, which could work but might also be a complete mess and be anticlimactic.

 

I think the Dothraki are there for Dany to win them over - the 'return to you' thing is probably a reference to Drogon, named for Drogo, rather than anything else - and use them to help break the siege at Meereen and win the day. What happens at that point is less clear: Victarion uses the dragon horn, seizes the dragons and uses them to force Dany to return to Westeros; Victarion willingly allies with Dany and Dany uses the horn (and maybe Tyrion's knowledge) to calm the dragons down; or even Dany says "Screw it," and heads off for Westeros with the Dothraki, sending word for Barristan and the rest of her followers to follow as best as they can after winning the battle.

 

Volantis can either be ignored until later on, or it can be dealt with in one chapter or offscreen along the way, as can Pentos being given to the Tattered Prince (if that even happens).

[Mr Ares]

Again, Mereen would not be that bad if I knew that once she wins, she can just leave by sea the way Aegon does. However we are told that 100 ships (the Iron fleet being only 70 strong) will not be enough to move her army. But the subplots Martin introduces are as follows...

 

It would have been so much simpler for Martin to have only had Yunkai as an enemy and not moved Dany out of Mereen. Dany beats them, resolves the dragonhorn thing and then moves on.

Have you considered the advantage of pitting Dany against half a continent? Have her face a single foe, beat them, then move on doesn't have a lot of urgency. She could spend years making her position secure, building up forces and a fleet, and then arrive in Westeros long after the War for the Dawn is done. By giving her so many foes, he can make her position untenable, force her to leave Essos. It leaves her with no choice but to invade Westeros.

[Mr Ares]

.

[False Dragon1991]

 

Again, Mereen would not be that bad if I knew that once she wins, she can just leave by sea the way Aegon does. However we are told that 100 ships (the Iron fleet being only 70 strong) will not be enough to move her army. But the subplots Martin introduces are as follows...

 

It would have been so much simpler for Martin to have only had Yunkai as an enemy and not moved Dany out of Mereen. Dany beats them, resolves the dragonhorn thing and then moves on.

Have you considered the advantage of pitting Dany against half a continent? Have her face a single foe, beat them, then move on doesn't have a lot of urgency. She could spend years making her position secure, building up forces and a fleet, and then arrive in Westeros long after the War for the Dawn is done. By giving her so many foes, he can make her position untenable, force her to leave Essos. It leaves her with no choice but to invade Westeros.

 

 

Really? :)

 

If not sarcasm....

 

Shes going to go Timur/Genghis Khan on the slavers. I doubt they'll be in a position to resist once shes done with them and burns Yunkai to the ground. The butcher King guy only took over because, technically, he did not kill people Dany had invested with her authority. She gave her blessing to some councillors but did not appoint them as her representatives or governors since she was never Queen of Astapor. If Dany did this and made it clear that defying them was the same as defying her then she shouldn't suffer this problem. If you add to that that the slaves love her and that these are the majority of the population then I don't see how she could struggle to keep such an empire together through conquest. Martin could be a dick I suppose. But, IMO, if Aegon can do it (and Aegon was NOT beloved by most people in Westeros) and many historical figures have also done it in the past; then I don't see why Dany can't conquer Essos in a year and keep it secure to help her invasion of Westeros.

 

Its not "time" per sae. The events of Feast of Crows and Dance of Dragons only cover a few months; but are almost a third of the series. Other books cover more time  and origionally Martin was going to skip five years after ASOS. The trouble is that as I outlined above there are a lot of storylines and plots and characters who need to be addressed and brought together before Dany can reach Westeros. To me, that looks like more than a book of material. Martin has said there are only 2 books left. He can't have the plot fast forward a few years because, what would the other characters do in the interim; they would still be doing stuff? As I said, I want to see Dany trying to claim the Iron Throne in Westeros. I am deeply apathetic about the Snow Elves and Undead invasion thing. So all this mountain of material left for Essos leaves me thinking that Dany is going to arrive and next chapter focuses completely on fighting the Others with the Game of thrones already over.   

[Red2111]

1st OP i have to say very well written.  alot of thought obviously went into that

 

 

next, i have to disagree.  for me, i think all of this has been built up to show Danny defeat and make her experience its bitter flavor and learn that she cannot conquore only through love, honest or for a greater good.  also to she her that ruling with her heart leads to a blade int he back or becomming shorter a head.

 

one problem with Rob is that he never tasted defeat, atleast not until his head was lopped off.  had he lost a few battles, he would have been better prepared to deal with the Red Wedding.

 

imo, for Danny to have a chance over in Westeros and to dealwitht eh Game of Thrones, she must experience defeat. 

 

the entire drama, imo, over in Essos has been built up for the slavers to rebel and secure the slaves back, leaving Danny with the choice of burning everything ot counting her losses and laaving with maybe 1/3rd the force she started with.

[Plato]

Yeah I think he bit off more than he can chew with Crows and Dragons. If he had to turn his first book and act into a trilogy then obviously he is going to have to extend his origionally planned second and third acts. Crows and Dragons were about him explaining what happenened between act 1 and 2; its largely a prelude to the second act. If an outrageously long one that ends on so many jarring cliff hangers.

 

I foresee atleast 3-4 more books in the series (which would mean another 10-15 years I guess...  )  I heard he had to write Crows and Dragons because he was using too many flashbacks in the next book.  So in order to get the character development set (Jaime/Tyrion/Dany/Arya et all) he needed those 2 books in between. 

[Werthead]

This article and the comments have some really great ideas about how Dany's story will unfold.

 

The idea that is proposed is:

 

Barristan wins the Battle of Meereen, Victarion shows up and allies with Team Dany and the Second Sons swap sides back. Tyrion either makes himself known (or is spotted) by Barristan and helps pacify the dragons, or Victarion uses the horn to pacify/seize control of them already. Tyrion can also remain in hiding until Dany shows up. Anyway, the initial battle is won: the Yunkish and their mercenaries are defeated and everything seems rosy until the much bigger Volantene Fleet bearing a much larger force shows up, at which point Team Dany is in trouble.

 

Meanwhile, Dany seizes control of the khalasar with Drogon and leads the khalasar back to Meereen. A variant theory is that she might also fly to Vaes Dothrak, where several Dothraki khalasars might be gathering due to the onset of winter, and seize control of a much vaster army. This might be a bit less plausible (and narratively unnecessary). Instead, she can lead her khalasar back to Meereen to help defeat the Volantene army. At the sight of the Mother of Dragons, the Volantene slaves crewing the ships revolt. The Volantene Fleet is large enough - 300 or more ships, including transports - to carry Dany's entire army back to Westeros. What Dany does to Slaver's Bay is unclear: let it slide back the way it was before, or leave some stronger leaders behind to confirm that her values are continued (we can expect the Green Grace/Harpy to be dealt with along the way, as well as Dany joining up with Tyrion and meeting Jorah again). Volantis can be seized - or the slaves just freed - along the way. Dany can land in Westeros towards the end of the novel.

 

Variants are possible - Victarion seizing the dragons and taking off without Dany to confront Euron, for example, if he thinks she's been lost for good - but I wouldn't be surprised if this is more or less how it goes down. The Volantene Fleet is particularly notable, as it is large enough to carry Dany's army home, whilst Victarion's is not.

[False Dragon1991]

This article and the comments have some really great ideas about how Dany's story will unfold.

 

The idea that is proposed is:

 

Barristan wins the Battle of Meereen, Victarion shows up and allies with Team Dany and the Second Sons swap sides back. Tyrion either makes himself known (or is spotted) by Barristan and helps pacify the dragons, or Victarion uses the horn to pacify/seize control of them already. Tyrion can also remain in hiding until Dany shows up. Anyway, the initial battle is won: the Yunkish and their mercenaries are defeated and everything seems rosy until the much bigger Volantene Fleet bearing a much larger force shows up, at which point Team Dany is in trouble.

 

Meanwhile, Dany seizes control of the khalasar with Drogon and leads the khalasar back to Meereen. A variant theory is that she might also fly to Vaes Dothrak, where several Dothraki khalasars might be gathering due to the onset of winter, and seize control of a much vaster army. This might be a bit less plausible (and narratively unnecessary). Instead, she can lead her khalasar back to Meereen to help defeat the Volantene army. At the sight of the Mother of Dragons, the Volantene slaves crewing the ships revolt. The Volantene Fleet is large enough - 300 or more ships, including transports - to carry Dany's entire army back to Westeros. What Dany does to Slaver's Bay is unclear: let it slide back the way it was before, or leave some stronger leaders behind to confirm that her values are continued (we can expect the Green Grace/Harpy to be dealt with along the way, as well as Dany joining up with Tyrion and meeting Jorah again). Volantis can be seized - or the slaves just freed - along the way. Dany can land in Westeros towards the end of the novel.

 

Variants are possible - Victarion seizing the dragons and taking off without Dany to confront Euron, for example, if he thinks she's been lost for good - but I wouldn't be surprised if this is more or less how it goes down. The Volantene Fleet is particularly notable, as it is large enough to carry Dany's army home, whilst Victarion's is not.

 

 

What you describe is still a very complex set of events and a scenario that will take many POV chapters to unfold. I am not sure if you've read any of the preview chapters or summaries of readings Martins done but they seem to suggest a lot of material with lots of POVs building up and witnessing the first stages of this battle.. You then have to consider that even this is just the opening stages of a much larger conflict. Its very unlikely that the slavers will just forget that they are at war with Dany and not prevent her getting to Westeros. That would be far too contrived and all of these cities are quite literally in her way. Even by sea she would still need to pass Volantis, Lys and all the cities of slavers bay as well; most of whom are at war with her. This situation also assumes that other Essosi powers, most of whom are slavers, won't become alarmed by her victories and join the fight. If we look at Volantis, her actions are causing a wave of social and religious unrest among the slaves and fire worshippers. This is a major threat and one that can't just be ignored. Plus, Dany herself said that she would take vengeance on all those who wronged her at the end of ADWD. The slavers are pretty high on that list atm and they have a lot of cities.  

 

The Voltanese fleet is unlikely to be sufficient. This is because the Voltanese army is itself a slave army comprised of men with tiger markings. Half of which according to Tyrion worship the red god and by extension believe that Dany is AA. So if the galley slaves did revolt then its far more likely that the soldiers would as well. So it wouldn't actually increase Danys ability to transport her army or Khalessar that significantly since the transports would be needed for the tiger troops. Plus, the hundred ships was originally just to see about moving her unsullied, mercenaries and free companies; not an entire Khallessar with all its horses.  

 

Just the Battle of Mereen is likely to take up half of Winds of Winter alone and even then, Martin has still set up a lot that needs wrapping up before she can reach Westeros.

[False Dragon1991]

About Jorah....

 

He is a minor character but hes one of my favourites and you have to feel sorry for him. Anyway, I think if you look at Jorahs background story its suggestive of what will happen to him. Jorah has always put his love (some would say obsession) for women before his duty. This is what caused his first fall from grace when he resorted to slavery in order to finance his wifes lifestyle, dishonouring his house and costing him everything. This is the characters main flaw and weakness. However, its a demon he has never had to face thus far. Obviously since he loves Dany and Dany is his Queen you would think that the love vs duty thing is sort of a mute point? It makes things easy! :D Yet if you think about the House of the Undying prophecy about the "betrayel for love", he would actually be a very likely candidate for this. He already betrayed his house and liege lord, even his own ethics for love of Lynesse Hightower. So what I think will happen is that Dany will continue to keep Jorah at a distance and this rejection will be a pain he has to bear even after all his sacrifice in ADWD. But either in Lys or just on the road to Westeros I think Jorah will meet his old wife (they're still married technically). Because Dany has made it clear she has no interest it would be very easy to see Jorah falling for her or being seduced by her again. I think Jorah will be in a position of some power and influence, maybe even one of Danys dragonriders at this point which would make Lynesse come back. If Jorah transferred his affections to another woman then he really could betray Dany for love. I think this is likely because it is his glaring character flaw and caused his first downfall. As for motivation, a lot depends on how House Hightower (the prominent and powerful family in Oldtown) responds to Dany. If they side with Aegon then that makes them enemies and Lynesse could well sway Jorah into betraying Dany. According to the few references we have of her she seems to be quite a possessive, ruthless and cunning woman. Essentially being chief concubine to a high up lord in Lys and "even his wife lives in fear of her".

 

It just feels like something Martin would do. Love vs duty is a recurring theme in the books. It would be incredibly tragic and ironic if Jorah betrays Dany (imagine if he took one of her dragons) because she couldn't bring herself to love him over looks. If she took his love for granted? This was an issue with Rob Stark and contributed to his downfall that he wasn't willing to marry an ugly Frey brood member (at least he thought she was ugly) over his beautiful love. I mean, could Jorah be strong enough to choose his duty towards Dany as his Queen without loving her if he loved another?  

 

 

Course, I might be wrong. Maybe he does something dumb like kill Daario out of jealousy and Dany burns him. Or, maybe he dies heroically at Mereen. 

 

 

edit- In Clash of Kings Dany and Jorah discuss this and Jorah admits he still loves Lynesse despite also hating her for leaving him. So he does still have feelings about his old wife. Plus, the main reason (at least initially) that Jorah became drawn to Dany was because she reminded him of Lynesse. I am not saying that Jorah sees Dany as second-best, maybe during ACOK, but I think by ASOS n ADWD he loves Dany for who see is. However I think there is still something there with his old wife that might come into the story.

[BFG]

I've thought for a while that the three betrayals are going to be done by Dany not to her.  The wording is a bit ambiguous 'three betrayals shall you know' or some such.  I don't have much evidence for this, but it's a subversion of prophecy in a way, I can see GRRM doing it.  Plus it's possible to argue that she betrayed Drogo for love (and more ambiguously Jorah for power)

[False Dragon1991]

Yeah "You will know". But I think it would be of more moment if it were betraying Jorah for power. But I still think the idea of this tragic fate for Jorah where the man who did betray for love ends up betraying Dany for love. Something which didn't need to happen and ends up being tragic. Martin does seem to be really going to town with the sympathy thing in ADWD. Even Tyrion ends up begrudgingly feeling sorry for him. IMO this is because hes probably going to do something which the readers wouldn't like. Since killing Daario doesn't fit the bill...

 

I just don't see what his role could be. Before he acted as Danys slightly pragmatic advisor questioning some of her nievity and as a counterpoint to Barristan. Tyrion sort of displaces that role and whilst I think those two are a great duo I can't see how it can go on. I also, although there is some ambivalence in ASOS, I can't see Dany deciding she does want to be with Jorah. I think after ADWD she would take him back into her service. So, either he dies, or something happens to change his position radically. Becoming a dragonrider would do that and that is definetly an issue of imminence. Dany has ridden Drogon, they are big enough, Quentyn tried to steal them and Victarion has the horn planning on taking them. Winds of Winter will probs see this decided. But thats an aside. I think he has to ultimately end up betraying her for love because he has always put love before duty and that lingering thread to Lynesse could be the link. I doubt Martin would place a character flaw on a character and not bring it up again. 

 

 

The biggest proof for your theory is that she did arguably betray Viserys, her own blood by not trying to convince Drogo to not kill him. Although you might argue that since this was before House of the Undying and it was describing a future event that it has to be later. Maybe a possible conflict with Aegon or referring to her stealing the unsullied because of the blood the slavers had shed and betraying their trust. 

[Red2111]

merged the two threads, and changed teh title.  please keep all discussion and speculation for WW in this thread

[Werthead]

What you describe is still a very complex set of events and a scenario that will take many POV chapters to unfold.

 

 

No moreso than the Battle of the Blackwater, which didn't take up a huge chunk of ACoK. If GRRM uses rapid-fire POV shifts (as he already seems to be doing with Barristan's chapter) it should be relatively straightforward to get the battle done relatively quickly.

 

I am not sure if you've read any of the preview chapters or summaries of readings Martins done but they seem to suggest a lot of material with lots of POVs building up and witnessing the first stages of this battle..

 

Mod on Westeros.org. I am very familiar with that material :)

 

I think the 'dealing with the slavers' thing is a complication that is either going to be abandoned or dealt with off-page. There simply isn't enough time for this to be a huge plot point going forwards.

 

Just the Battle of Mereen is likely to take up half of Winds of Winter alone and even then, Martin has still set up a lot that needs wrapping up before she can reach Westeros.

 

If you mean it might be halfway through TWoW before the battle is done, intercutting with all the other characters, maybe. The battle certainly will not take up 50% of TWoW's page count by itself.

[False Dragon1991]

 

What you describe is still a very complex set of events and a scenario that will take many POV chapters to unfold.

 

 

No moreso than the Battle of the Blackwater, which didn't take up a huge chunk of ACoK. If GRRM uses rapid-fire POV shifts (as he already seems to be doing with Barristan's chapter) it should be relatively straightforward to get the battle done relatively quickly.

 

I am not sure if you've read any of the preview chapters or summaries of readings Martins done but they seem to suggest a lot of material with lots of POVs building up and witnessing the first stages of this battle..

 

Mod on Westeros.org. I am very familiar with that material :)

 

I think the 'dealing with the slavers' thing is a complication that is either going to be abandoned or dealt with off-page. There simply isn't enough time for this to be a huge plot point going forwards.

 

Just the Battle of Mereen is likely to take up half of Winds of Winter alone and even then, Martin has still set up a lot that needs wrapping up before she can reach Westeros.

 

If you mean it might be halfway through TWoW before the battle is done, intercutting with all the other characters, maybe. The battle certainly will not take up 50% of TWoW's page count by itself.

 

 

Yeah with all the character shifts the battle would be resolved by the first half IMO.

 

The trouble is that the Battle is being set up as a multi stage thing. First theres the slavers and New Ghiscari legions outside just as Barri sallies out and Vic arrives with the horn. This, IMO, is just the first part of the battle and I think it was the part meant to be in ADWD but was cut. The real hammer of the slavers is the Voltanese fleet which may have up to 500 ships. Thats a big deal and we don't know how far away Dany is. It might be that the heroes win only to be besieged again until Dany comes back. Plus, two barristan chapters? At least one tyrion and Vic chapter just to the very start of this fight? Maybe some of this material gets cut in editing but that suggests that this is going to be a LONG thing. Personally I would rather have plot movement than a battle to get the ball rolling in Winds. I could have used a big battle in Dance but Martin thought it was better as an intro to this book. Plus, the Blackwater didn't have to also cover the aftermath with all these personalities meeting and coming into conflict with eachother at the same time as another army is approaching. 

 

Sadly I think he is going to make a big deal out of the freeing the slaves thing in the same vein as Dance. We saw Dany tackle the problem with appeasement in Dance and now with her (hopefully, I do not want this character development to be FINAL) embracing fire and blood we will see her use this method. Else he wouldn't have foreshadowed future plot developments in Volantis, Pentos and with the Dothraki. He could perhaps skip a lot of the fighting to resolve the war itself "Dany took her khallessar, engulfing smaller khals and sacking Qohor and Norvos before reaching the Rhoyne.". But even then I don't think  a writer would make a huge deal out of this issue in Dragons and the conflict around it only to cut it short. I also suspect this is largely just stuff for Dany to do whilst Aegon solidifies his position in Westeros. He just hasn't set things up to suggest that Dany can just do an Aegon and be in Westeros after a single chapter. Not without leaving some major questions about the logistics, why her enemies stop attacking her, why she swore fire and blood on those who wronged her and yet subsequently runs away.

 

If he had wanted to get her there next book he could have by limiting the scope of Dance, making it a more isolated low key affair but he clearly wants to still hold Dany back from the main plot whilst other things play out in Westeros so hes made a continent spanning war on Essos. I don't know why he wants to do this. Surely he is aware people do not like the Essosi material and think its outrageous she hasn't gotten to Westeros yet after five books. The TV show is gonna get MAJOR flak over that once people realize she isn't getting to Westeros next series BTW.